Where do you see Russell Wilson's level of play now that he's in Denver?

[Broncofan]

With Wilson now in Denver, the discussion in the News thread falls along several lines:

-Take him away from Carroll's incredibly conservative game-calling & vanilla scheme / horrific game management, and well, you get Let Russ Cook V2.

-Age-related decline, and unproven receivers on D - why would he improve and return to his pre-2020 1H (or earlier form)?

As always, it's hard to be black and white - so let's see if we can have a more nuanced discussion.

Obviously as a DEN fan, I'm thrilled, and no doubt many will say I'm biased.   I recognize there is always that risk - but as those in the Weekly Bets thread will note ( @N4L, @SmittyBacall  @SaveOurSonics & @NYRaider, @MikeT14 would attest to), I have been fading my Broncos hard (and profiting lol) for several years now (and the proof is there in the 2-years I've been posting).

My take - obv Wilson's not at the true, alpha elite level, that Mahomes/Allen/A-Rod (and TB12, now departed) all deservedly occupy.  That's one tier.  The next tier, of the "not quite there, but true elite-can-win-any-game-on-their own (looking at you, Justin Herbert) - Wilson *might* be there given how much SEA's vanilla scheme and Carroll-induced shackles on the O, but I can see the argument he's not been that way since 1H 2020.    I am confident he's in the top 6-8 range, but if you want to say 8-10, that's fine with me too.    

The reasons why?  I'll list them:

-Elite arm talent ages far better than any skill set.   Wilson's got that in spades.

-The DEN scheme and the talent is going to maximize his talent - rather than Carroll's "we're going to lean on the run MORE" after 2020's 2H struggles.  Which SEA definitely stuck to (top 5 neutral game run script).    This isn't meant to be a "are DEN's WR's better than SEA's WR's" - we're talking scheme and total O talent.   That means the scheme, philosophy, play-calling AND RB/WR/TE talent.   

-Hackett's scheme calls for mimicking the RPO with rhythm, "in-tempo" throws.    Wilson's asked repeatedly for the O to be up-tempo, and despite Carroll's promises in SEA that new OC Shane Waldron would do this - SEA went to the highest run script, and lowest # plays overall in the league.    The volume is going to be higher, and frankly, the setup for success is going to be far greater than when you go run-run-pass as much as Carroll & OC's predictability (Schottenheimer before Waldron, and Bevell <who truly regressed to being bottom 5 the last 2-3 years after his heady 2013-15 days).   This fits perfectly with what Wilson needs (and I'll touch on where he has flaws, he certainly has 2 big ones).

-Much like Stafford, Wilson's ability to carry a team on his own shouldn't be questioned - frankly, he's been doing it for so long, ppl take for granted how much he's asked to do.   Ideally, no team forces their QB to do it, but we know Wilson has that ability.   This was also the case with Stafford, albeit not in the playoffs - but with 3 playoff games before, the SSS masked what the eye test has shown since 2016 (and the NFL record 8 comeback W's should have supported).  We're getting a guy with a higher baseline talent level, and without the back injury risk Stafford presented in 2021.

 

Now, why Wilson could fail:

-He could get injured! (Come on it's FF, have to include that one...but let's agree it's not a valid argument to use as a predictor)

-He definitely takes more sacks because of his hero play tendencies.   The sacks that are 3.5-4 secs into the play, it's pretty much all on him.   Being able to take what's there is 1 area he could stand to learn in the new system he's going to.

-Along with the sacks, and related to not settling for what's there - Wilson will put the ball in jeopardy (unlike A-Rod, as a contrast).  Now, you don't want to take it all away from him - but there is a balance.   Sacks & TO's are the 2 main reasons why Wilson at his peak was close to the best QB's in the game, but in reality was in that "next-tier".   


Overall, though, put me in the 6-8 range (which does allow me to hedge between the 2nd & 3rd answer.   More importantly, this is the level at which you can win SB's with (and why I supported getting Stafford last year, and I backed LAR pre-playoffs to win the SB) - and I think Wilson can keep this level for 4-5 years at this level, too, given how well the elite arm talent skill set ages so well. 

 

What do you all say?    

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Broncofan

[MikeT14]

Went with 8-10/3 years or less. 

[Nightmare]

Possibly nitpicking with the wording more than anything else, but surely 8-10 ranked QBs in the league can’t be considered elite? I wouldn’t even say the 5-7 range is either, but 8-10 definitely isn’t.

This year Wilson played like a guy in the 8-10 range, and I think if he’s fully healthy he’s still got it in him to be in that 5-7 range. He’s never cracking the true elite any more but he’s still a great QB.

[ronjon1990]

8-10 range, 4 to 5 years. 

Also wouldn't be surprised to see him drop off a cliff. I think you're severely undervaluing how much of Wilson's reputation was helped along by Carroll in the grand scheme of things. 

[minutemancl]

Much higher, geographically speaking.

[RaidersAreOne]

Top 10 QB for sure. Likely top 6 for a few more years. However iirc his mobility has taken a step back and that's a big part of his game. Denver's WR's are solid but they are no Metcalf/Lockett imo.

[NYRaider]

I think that he can be excellent this season, especially if you bolster your offensive line.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Wilson has been truly elite for years. It's a miracle the Seahawks have been winning 10+ games each year despite the lack of talent on those teams. He's going to have a much better defense again, a run game and WR's and most likely some OL help. He'll be right up in the top-5 range.

[Forge]

He's no Jimmy G, but he'll probably be pretty good. 

I've not been a big believer  that he woudl age well, but I do believe he's still capable of top 7ish QB play over the next 3 years. 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Nightmare said:

Possibly nitpicking with the wording more than anything else, but surely 8-10 ranked QBs in the league can’t be considered elite? I wouldn’t even say the 5-7 range is either, but 8-10 definitely isn’t.

This year Wilson played like a guy in the 8-10 range, and I think if he’s fully healthy he’s still got it in him to be in that 5-7 range. He’s never cracking the true elite any more but he’s still a great QB.

The tiering matters more. 

This is just me personally, but I think there are 8-9 QB's, and when TB12 was here, 9-10 QB's who could win games on their own even against good teams, and make playoff-winning plays from their talent alone.   And good enough to get the teams to the playoffs.    Some years, that number is going to be less than 10, other years it could be 12 (not right now).    Mahomes, Allen, ARod, TB12, Herbert, Burrow, Dak, Stafford, Wilson, and yes, if he ever plays, Watson.   That would have been my 10 this year.   If you want to go 8 because Watson's not back (or you don't believe) and TB12's retired, sure.   And I recognize we're not including guys like Lamar or Kyler Murray, who aren't there yet, but have the potential (and could replace A-Rod when he retires).  Cousins is a guy whose play has improved substantially - but he's not quite there IMO.   Same with Carr.   Whether it's 8, or 10, or 12, you get the idea - the level of play where teams can viably win a SB because of the QB play (and not despite it).

The number isn't as important as the concept - there's a top of the mountain tier, almost-there tier, and a 3rd "not at the top, not that close, but good enough to win playoff games <and get teams there> on their own ability".    Stafford was a guy I had in that 3rd important tier from the moment he became available - and Russell Wilson IMO belong at worst there, even ahead of Stafford.   Whether he's in the 2nd tier or not (or if you want to argue, the top), staying in the top 3 tiers means your team can legitimately contend with that QB for the SB.    

Edited March 9, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

He's no Jimmy G, but he'll probably be pretty good. 

I've not been a big believer  that he woudl age well, but I do believe he's still capable of top 7ish QB play over the next 3 years. 

With the Wentz trade, your prospects for him just improved a ton.    Keep up the good work.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Wilson has been truly elite for years. It's a miracle the Seahawks have been winning 10+ games each year despite the lack of talent on those teams. He's going to have a much better defense again, a run game and WR's and most likely some OL help. He'll be right up in the top-5 range.

I absolutely could support that view - as a default, I'm more conservative on my own team.   But it's definitely in range.    I think the safe conclusion from most is that he's definitely in that "can win SB's with him, and because of him" tier - which honestly, is all that matters IMO - along with how long can he keep that level of play up (interesting that it's 3 or less vs. 4-5 - I think it's always a matter of debate - what's funny are some DEN based reporters are posting as high as 8-10 years on social media - DUDES....we'd gladly take 5+ as a great outcome).

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Broncofan

[brownie man]

8-10 

4-5 years

he relies too much on athleticism for me to guess more than 5 years. They need to have somebody developing behind him by that time. 

[Kiwibrown]

He isnt as good a passer as Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, but he makes up for some of that with excellent athleticism. 

 

Wouldnt surprise me if Jeudy breaks out

[SaveOurSonics]

It's a huge mystery to be honest. Denver could be getting a guy with renewed motivation who suddenly comes out and does everything Seattle fans have been begging him to do for several years (throwing in rhythm, playing within the design of the call, giving his receivers chances to win, showing better pocket presence, etc.). However, Denver could also be getting a QB who is slowly but surely facing pretty stark contrasts in his play from week to week and those aforementioned weaknesses/tendencies rear their ugly head more often than not. 

The recipe for slowing down Russell is not a difficult one. Keep him in the pocket. Press the A/B gaps. Stick his receivers in tight coverage. With that, you effectively eliminate the garbage plays, make him skittish in the pocket, and make him unwilling to test the secondary. It's that first variable that used to be incredibly difficult with Russell. He was a magician in the pocket who could elude unblocked pass rushers with relative ease. Not so much anymore, and to the detriment of his offense's success, he still plays with a style that suggests he thinks he's that guy. 

We will find out this year if Russ can actually cook or if, after all this time, Pete Carroll was actually doing the right thing by limiting his volume and maximizing his per pass efficiency. As of right now, I'd say he's definitely in that 5-10 range when he's right. I'd personally place him more in the back half of that group mostly because his style of play seems to be on the decline with every year he loses athleticism. 

I'll say the Broncos have 2-3 years of a top 10 QB and another 2-3 years of a middling top 15 QB that still keeps them relevant.