It's officially Super Bowl or bust for the Colts.

[Blackstar12]

Gotta win the AFCS first they've been close the last few seasons. They also have some holes in the secondary, LT and WR to add to the roster. Nobody really knows like how many people picked the Bengals to win the AFC last year?

[brownie man]

They gonna have to get LUCKY

[Mr Raider]

I disagree, I don't believe it's super bowl or bust unless you are smack dab in the middle of your super bowl window being open (because those can close quickly). 

I would argue they haven't had a legitimate super bowl window since Luck left at best. The super bowl window doesn't realistically open in my eyes until you have the QB situation nailed down at least for the next several years. Can you win a super bowl without an elite QB? Absolutely. But winning one that way IMO isn't a super bowl window. That is having one great season with a ridiculously talented overall team with a good enough QB to win in the playoffs. That isn't a window, because it isn't sustainable. No team is shooting to build a team that is good enough to win a one off super bowl, they are trying to be a perennial playoff team that ensures they have the chance to get hot at the right time and win once they are in. 

The Colts roster isn't so stacked where we can say they are in the middle of a super bowl window while having serious questions at the most important position in the sport. The Colts are a talented team, Taylor, Buckner, Leonard, Nelson are all elite players, guys like Pittman, Kelly, Moore, Paye, etc are all really quality starters IMO, Paye and Pittman could even take another step up from that. Yannick will be a good addition to an area that needs a boost. 

Do I think the Colts should be viewing making the playoffs as the goal this season? Absolutely. They have talent, they have quality coaching, they should at the very least have a more stable QB that will be a good teammate and leader, a guy that has had a ton of success in this league and could have a nice bounce back on a better team. Not to mention they play in a trash division. They should have their eyes set on winning the division. Once you're in the playoffs anything can happen, so will I say they have zero chance of winning a super bowl? No. I will say that I find them to be behind the Bills, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Titans, confidently on the AFC side alone. I also would probably put the Dolphins above them but could go either way. I would have them slightly ahead of the Patriots, but again that is one tomorrow I could easily go the other way. It's hard for me to believe that it's super bowl or bust for a team that even as talented as they are (which really speaks to the AFCs depth) is IMO the 8th or 9th best team in their conference. 

The consistent theme with all of those teams I listed confidently as better than the Colts? They have better QBs, a lot of those QBs significantly better, and guys like Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Tannehill, also have the benefit on playing in the same system with consistent coaching that know their strengths and have a familiarity that Ryan and the Colts won't have. Obviously those teams being better isn't a direct comparison because only the Titans play in the division, and that is one of the best things going for them. While the AFC West, and AFC North could be an absolute blood bath, and the AFC East being stronger but on a lower level those teams could beat on eachother and keep them from stacking wins/momentum. 

I got a little long winded here (I have a tendency to do that) but this post isn't to dog the Colts, I think very highly of Reich. I live in Indiana and LOVE watching Taylor run, Buckner wreck QBs, Leonard flying all over the field, I loved Pittman coming out, and I think Ryan is respectable, steady, and solid, but I also think he could realistically fall off a cliff at any moment. I believe the Colts best course of action is to stay the course. Win as many games as they can. Have a goal of winning the division and let the chips fall where they may. Then look at a QB in next years draft, with the idea/plan being letting them learn behind Ryan for a year IF they aren't ready, if they are you throw them out there immediately. Do that, and have it be the right guy? Then the super bowl window finally opens up, and will stay open for at least as long as that QB is on a rookie deal. I do fear that Irsay has the same mindset and view of the team and that if the Colts fail to make the playoffs or possibly even win a playoff game that he will get impatient and fire Frank Reich. I have very little faith in Irsay to practice patience and staying the course. That IMO is absolutely possible, and unless they completely fall off, would likely be a mistake that has a high probability of only delaying their window opening up. Reich's job maybe being on the line (even if I don't believe it should be) is the closest I can concede to it being super bowl or bust for them this year. In my eyes it should be winning season or winning the division or bust. The rest is gravy. I refuse to believe the Colts if they are being honest with themselves believe that 37 year old Matt Ryan is enough to make it a super bowl or bust scenario. If so, they are vastly overrating how talented they are (which they are but not stacked talent where the QB just goes along for the ride), and vastly underrating the landscape of the rest of the AFC, and vastly underrating the impact of high level QB play (which is strange given their history before and after Peyton and than to a lesser degree Luck). Some may argue that if they fail to take another step with Ryan they should tear it all down and look to bottom out and rebuild behind a highly drafted QB. I think that would be an overreaction and based on the level I expect them to play at and the rest of the AFC I think a better approach is waiting for a deeper QB draft next year. Drafting him at 22 or whatever if not earlier or even moving up to nab a specific guy. But I also tend to believe it's better to try and bring a young QB onto a talented, stable team rather than blowing it up and drafting a guy to a team devoid of talent and asking them to change the teams life. 

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

Every year there is only 1 winner (2021-2022 = Los Angeles Rams). 

And 2nd place is always the first loser (2021-2022 = Cincinnati Bengals).

Edited March 24, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Nabbs4u]

19 hours ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

I don’t want to say they have zero chance because I’ve ended up looking silly a few times going that far. But I don’t see them as legitimate contenders.

If the Bengals can come out of nowhere like last year just about any team is viable IMO, especially the Colts. Parity in the league is real as is injury. You never know from year to year which teams will be decimated by it and which team will ultimately capitalize on that.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Nabbs4u

[Malfatron]

Fans

 

Colts organization

 

[RTTRUTH]

3 hours ago, Mr Raider said:

I disagree, I don't believe it's super bowl or bust unless you are smack dab in the middle of your super bowl window being open (because those can close quickly). 

I would argue they haven't had a legitimate super bowl window since Luck left at best. The super bowl window doesn't realistically open in my eyes until you have the QB situation nailed down at least for the next several years. Can you win a super bowl without an elite QB? Absolutely. But winning one that way IMO isn't a super bowl window. That is having one great season with a ridiculously talented overall team with a good enough QB to win in the playoffs. That isn't a window, because it isn't sustainable. No team is shooting to build a team that is good enough to win a one off super bowl, they are trying to be a perennial playoff team that ensures they have the chance to get hot at the right time and win once they are in. 

The Colts roster isn't so stacked where we can say they are in the middle of a super bowl window while having serious questions at the most important position in the sport. The Colts are a talented team, Taylor, Buckner, Leonard, Nelson are all elite players, guys like Pittman, Kelly, Moore, Paye, etc are all really quality starters IMO, Paye and Pittman could even take another step up from that. Yannick will be a good addition to an area that needs a boost. 

Do I think the Colts should be viewing making the playoffs as the goal this season? Absolutely. They have talent, they have quality coaching, they should at the very least have a more stable QB that will be a good teammate and leader, a guy that has had a ton of success in this league and could have a nice bounce back on a better team. Not to mention they play in a trash division. They should have their eyes set on winning the division. Once you're in the playoffs anything can happen, so will I say they have zero chance of winning a super bowl? No. I will say that I find them to be behind the Bills, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Titans, confidently on the AFC side alone. I also would probably put the Dolphins above them but could go either way. I would have them slightly ahead of the Patriots, but again that is one tomorrow I could easily go the other way. It's hard for me to believe that it's super bowl or bust for a team that even as talented as they are (which really speaks to the AFCs depth) is IMO the 8th or 9th best team in their conference. 

The consistent theme with all of those teams I listed confidently as better than the Colts? They have better QBs, a lot of those QBs significantly better, and guys like Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Tannehill, also have the benefit on playing in the same system with consistent coaching that know their strengths and have a familiarity that Ryan and the Colts won't have. Obviously those teams being better isn't a direct comparison because only the Titans play in the division, and that is one of the best things going for them. While the AFC West, and AFC North could be an absolute blood bath, and the AFC East being stronger but on a lower level those teams could beat on eachother and keep them from stacking wins/momentum. 

I got a little long winded here (I have a tendency to do that) but this post isn't to dog the Colts, I think very highly of Reich. I live in Indiana and LOVE watching Taylor run, Buckner wreck QBs, Leonard flying all over the field, I loved Pittman coming out, and I think Ryan is respectable, steady, and solid, but I also think he could realistically fall off a cliff at any moment. I believe the Colts best course of action is to stay the course. Win as many games as they can. Have a goal of winning the division and let the chips fall where they may. Then look at a QB in next years draft, with the idea/plan being letting them learn behind Ryan for a year IF they aren't ready, if they are you throw them out there immediately. Do that, and have it be the right guy? Then the super bowl window finally opens up, and will stay open for at least as long as that QB is on a rookie deal. I do fear that Irsay has the same mindset and view of the team and that if the Colts fail to make the playoffs or possibly even win a playoff game that he will get impatient and fire Frank Reich. I have very little faith in Irsay to practice patience and staying the course. That IMO is absolutely possible, and unless they completely fall off, would likely be a mistake that has a high probability of only delaying their window opening up. Reich's job maybe being on the line (even if I don't believe it should be) is the closest I can concede to it being super bowl or bust for them this year. In my eyes it should be winning season or winning the division or bust. The rest is gravy. I refuse to believe the Colts if they are being honest with themselves believe that 37 year old Matt Ryan is enough to make it a super bowl or bust scenario. If so, they are vastly overrating how talented they are (which they are but not stacked talent where the QB just goes along for the ride), and vastly underrating the landscape of the rest of the AFC, and vastly underrating the impact of high level QB play (which is strange given their history before and after Peyton and than to a lesser degree Luck). Some may argue that if they fail to take another step with Ryan they should tear it all down and look to bottom out and rebuild behind a highly drafted QB. I think that would be an overreaction and based on the level I expect them to play at and the rest of the AFC I think a better approach is waiting for a deeper QB draft next year. Drafting him at 22 or whatever if not earlier or even moving up to nab a specific guy. But I also tend to believe it's better to try and bring a young QB onto a talented, stable team rather than blowing it up and drafting a guy to a team devoid of talent and asking them to change the teams life. 

One of the most well-written and spot on takes I have ever seen from anyone on the Colts. Amazing how many of their own fans can't see things this clearly. Probably something every team can claim though. 

The one spot where you lost me was considering the Dolphins might be legitimately better. They clearly have a better WR room than they did the last couple years. But Tua will have to prove something to me first. Also a first time head coach, so I'm just going to withhold any judgment on them until I see what it all looks like on the field.

But you're deadly accurate summing up what kind of "window" I believe the Colts are in. Our roster clearly has some top talent, but we're thinner in a few spots than you'd ideally like to be. And we're a little short on draft capital this year, so it isn't feasible to believe we'll hit three home run draft picks this off-season. It's a success if we find two quality starters by mid-season IMO. Even if we do that we're still lacking top talent at at least one spot between LT, WR, TE, CB, and probably depth at another spot or two. What makes your take so accurate and our team so interesting though is that we are coached just well enough, and strong enough at the top of the roster that we are capable of beating any team in the NFL on any given Sunday. What makes our "window" not officially open to everyone is that we struggle to do it three weeks in a row. Some of that is the question mark at QB, and some is a lack of depth that occasionally bites us. We have beaten both the Chiefs and Bills recently, two widely-hailed "Top AFC teams". 

The intrigue comes from one thing you alluded to, how patient is Jim Irsay? I mean the sane fans, such as myself, know we're on the right track. I've been saying for 18 months now that we are roughly a franchise QB and one great defensive addition from being LEGIT contenders. Another receiving stud wouldn't hurt either. But we're struggling with a unique issue; We're just good enough that we never pick very high in the draft, so finding that Franchise QB is difficult. So we have been playing the "crafty veteran" card at the position, which is continuing to cost us draft capital, making it more difficult to build depth on the roster elsewhere. It's been a bit of a vicious cycle the last couple seasons. 

I will say this. I understand the league these days isn't exactly the model of patience. And I can see the politics of owners caving a bit to the impatience of fans. If we struggled in a tough conference to let's say something between a 6-11 to 10-7 record and missed the playoffs or simply made a wildcard round exit I could see (though I'd disagree) them firing Frank Reich. But if the owner went so far as to fire our GM, Chris Ballard, I personally would be absolutely furious. To me, that guy is clearly a top 3-4 GM in the league today. I think he can get us there. And I believe he has had plenty more successes than failures going back to his KC days. It's just not that easy in a competitive, impatient league with so many variables to step into a roster and guarantee a Superbowl within 3 years. Ideal, but sure as hell not simple. I for one think Ballard has done enough to buy him another 3 years regardless of our record this upcoming season. His patience is one of the things that impresses me most. Anyways, I digress. Thought as an actual Colts fan I should give my $0.02. And comment on a quality take by another forum member. Some days those are all too scarce.

[NYRaider]

I've never understood why everyone thinks the Colts are so good, lol.

[SkippyX]

At this moment I see the Colts s as 2nd in their division and 13th in the conference. An 8+ game QB suspension somewhere might push them to 12th best.

BTW, the 3 teams behind them may power up in the draft.

The Colts are 3 or 4 ( the DT being 4) very good players and a bunch of meh, IMO.

Random catastrophic team injuries like the 2021 Ravens could push them a bit higher but could also affect them.

[Mr Raider]

1 hour ago, RTTRUTH said:

One of the most well-written and spot on takes I have ever seen from anyone on the Colts. Amazing how many of their own fans can't see things this clearly. Probably something every team can claim though. 

The one spot where you lost me was considering the Dolphins might be legitimately better. They clearly have a better WR room than they did the last couple years. But Tua will have to prove something to me first. Also a first time head coach, so I'm just going to withhold any judgment on them until I see what it all looks like on the field.

But you're deadly accurate summing up what kind of "window" I believe the Colts are in. Our roster clearly has some top talent, but we're thinner in a few spots than you'd ideally like to be. And we're a little short on draft capital this year, so it isn't feasible to believe we'll hit three home run draft picks this off-season. It's a success if we find two quality starters by mid-season IMO. Even if we do that we're still lacking top talent at at least one spot between LT, WR, TE, CB, and probably depth at another spot or two. What makes your take so accurate and our team so interesting though is that we are coached just well enough, and strong enough at the top of the roster that we are capable of beating any team in the NFL on any given Sunday. What makes our "window" not officially open to everyone is that we struggle to do it three weeks in a row. Some of that is the question mark at QB, and some is a lack of depth that occasionally bites us. We have beaten both the Chiefs and Bills recently, two widely-hailed "Top AFC teams". 

The intrigue comes from one thing you alluded to, how patient is Jim Irsay? I mean the sane fans, such as myself, know we're on the right track. I've been saying for 18 months now that we are roughly a franchise QB and one great defensive addition from being LEGIT contenders. Another receiving stud wouldn't hurt either. But we're struggling with a unique issue; We're just good enough that we never pick very high in the draft, so finding that Franchise QB is difficult. So we have been playing the "crafty veteran" card at the position, which is continuing to cost us draft capital, making it more difficult to build depth on the roster elsewhere. It's been a bit of a vicious cycle the last couple seasons. 

I will say this. I understand the league these days isn't exactly the model of patience. And I can see the politics of owners caving a bit to the impatience of fans. If we struggled in a tough conference to let's say something between a 6-11 to 10-7 record and missed the playoffs or simply made a wildcard round exit I could see (though I'd disagree) them firing Frank Reich. But if the owner went so far as to fire our GM, Chris Ballard, I personally would be absolutely furious. To me, that guy is clearly a top 3-4 GM in the league today. I think he can get us there. And I believe he has had plenty more successes than failures going back to his KC days. It's just not that easy in a competitive, impatient league with so many variables to step into a roster and guarantee a Superbowl within 3 years. Ideal, but sure as hell not simple. I for one think Ballard has done enough to buy him another 3 years regardless of our record this upcoming season. His patience is one of the things that impresses me most. Anyways, I digress. Thought as an actual Colts fan I should give my $0.02. And comment on a quality take by another forum member. Some days those are all too scarce.

First, I appreciate the kind words. I got a little carried away, but I'm glad someone who took the time to read it found it to have some quality behind it. I also found your post to be high quality and offered some good insight from an actual fan of the team being discussed. 

On the subject of the Dolphins, I think that is a totally fair take, one I am actually inclined to agree with in the largest sense of your points. If I sat down and really think about it I could absolutely see myself saying on second thought I would have the Colts over them. Tua is a glaring question mark, and while there is still some untapped potential there, it is apparent that he hasn't lived up to expectations to this point. The Hill trade is a giant swing for the fence, but I like it because for one they still have two first round picks next season, and 2 after the trade and I would assume the rest of their focus being on the OL and then some depth, I believe they have taken a huge step to put Tua in a position where if he isn't successful it won't be because he had no offensive talent to work with and thus continue to waste time trying to force him to be the guy. I like when teams make a big move to really find out, what do we have here, especially at an important position like QB when you have guys like Waddle, Hill now, Howard, Jones, Mike G, etc. Though I also thought firing Flores was a mistake, but only time will tell and McDaniels because of his offensive background could hit big with that receiving talent. I would say I trust the Colts a little more, but I think the Dolphins may have the higher ceiling next season just because Tua is still young enough he could get significantly better. 

On the comment about Irsay's patience, I don't have anything super substantial to back up my position on that being a concern. I just have heard some rumblings around Indianapolis where I live, as well as some reports that Irsay was furious about the loss to the Jags and the reports of Wentz not being a good leader and teammate, some have said that Irsay is holding Frank to the fire to get it right this time after trading a first for Wentz only to trade him and once again need to find a QB without the draft picks to find a franchise guy. Irsay from what I have gathered has his pros, but he can also be super temperamental, and as you pointed out, its not uncommon in today's day in age for owners to lack having great patience. Now maybe none of that is true or it was just a minor thing, but I think it would be unfair. Wentz wasn't AWFUL, and that speaks to Reichs skill as a coach, and in the position they were in, I can't fault a coach for saying if we have to look for a potential QB to help us get over the hump let me take a chance on the former #2 pick, that had his most success working with me, and has had highs of that of a franchise QB. I'm not sure what other alternatives were the more obviously better choice. Unless the team totally bottoms out, and without a bunch of injuries I don't see that happening I think firing Frank would be a mistake. I don't necessarily think it's likely, but that's the most I can see a scenario where this season is any type of "or bust" scenario. 

Absolutely agree on Ballard btw. I love the job he has done building this team. Particularly in the draft. I did a deep dive on the success rate and what should be considered a success in day one, two, and three of the draft, and I think Ballard does a great job of taking what I would consider the right approach. From what I have read/heard, the potential impatience of Irsay doesn't seem to extend to Ballard. And honestly even if the Colts totally collapsed this year, if I were a Colts fan I would be totally excited to see what Ballard could do with some high draft picks, so in that scenario it wouldn't be something I consider a fireable offense for Ballard. I think the Colts have done a really good job building the team with a great GM, a very high caliber coaching staff, and moves to me that show a vision and long term plan that the FO and coaching staff share (the most vital piece of building a contender IMO outside of an elite QB). I think a great foundation has been laid. They obviously still have to solve the long term franchise QB problem, which is the biggest piece of the puzzle, but I think it's the right approach doing what they have when you consider where they were picking, and the talent that would have been available at their draft spot. I think letting them continue with their vision, continue the winning culture, look for the QB that can just be a cog in the short term with the talent already there and let them identify when/if/and who they feel strongly enough to take a big swing at finding the QB of the future. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Mr Raider

[RTTRUTH]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I've never understood why everyone thinks the Colts are so good, lol.

Because when we're at our best, we are "so good". They watch us in Primetime beat the Bills or the Chiefs (with Carson Wentz I might add) and go "Dam@, them dudes onto something." 

But eventually we lose one we shouldn't because A) We're rolling dudes like Carson Wentz, or B) Simply have an off day where we don't play our best.

2020 Colts D was clearly better than 2021. We just lost our coordinator, so I won't hold my breath for us to immediately hop back into the top 3.

[Uncle Buck]

I think it's fair to say that Colts have a Super Bowl window that was opened up with the signing of Matt Ryan.  While they are probably underdogs to several other AFC teams, they are also good enough to go on a run in the post season with Matt Ryan leading the cast they have.  Unless he falls off a cliff, I'd say they are contenders for a couple years anyway - (then the Jags will take over.  Hehehe).

[Wyld Stallyns]

On 3/23/2022 at 5:29 PM, Calamity_Cometh said:

Colts have a tendency to drop one in/to Jacksonville, don't they?

I didn’t check it myself but I believe I heard someone say that Matt Ryan is 4-0 versus Jacksonville in his career.

[Jeezla]

Bust it is then.

[ttitansfan4life]