Deebo Samuel Requests Trade

[NJerseypaint]

Just now, TheRealMcCoy said:

Jets weren’t even willing to part with 10 overall for Tyreek Hill. 

 

Yeah no way what the Jets are offering is sweeter than what they offered for Hill. That's not how JD works.

[Forge]

Just now, TheRealMcCoy said:

Jets weren’t even willing to part with 10 overall for Tyreek Hill. 

 

The #10 pick alone  would be greater than the Hill and Adams packages. I don't know how that is on the table for anyone. They can offer almost the exact deal that they did for hill (the 49ers have pick 105 rather than 103, so it's still largely the same). That is what I'd expect. I've been pretty locked in that pick 10 won't happen. People don't understand how much more valuable that first is compared to the firsts given up for Adams, Diggs, Hill, etc. 

[TheRealMcCoy]

Just now, NJerseypaint said:

Yeah no way what the Jets are offering is sweeter than what they offered for Hill. That's not how JD works.

Yep. JD learned from Howie Roseman. He’s not getting ripped off in a trade.

[TheRealMcCoy]

Just now, Forge said:

The #10 pick alone  would be greater than the Hill and Adams packages. I don't know how that is on the table for anyone. They can offer almost the exact deal that they did for hill (the 49ers have pick 105 rather than 103, so it's still largely the same). That is what I'd expect. I've been pretty locked in that pick 10 won't happen. People don't understand how much more valuable that first is compared to the firsts given up for Adams, Diggs, Hill, etc. 

I understand the same deal could be in place, but would you expect the Niners to accept it? 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

13 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Read back a page, how exactly did it maximize his production? His targets in the pass game were halved an he went from a dominant receiver to a hybrid player with middling stats as a receiver and as a runner. 

He showed in the first half of the season he could be an elite WR, then in the 2nd half he could also be an elite gadget player. His scrimmage yards pace was always unsustainable, so it dropping by 7 yards/game while he was also rushing a lot more is still incredible, and he produced 8 touchdowns on 59 rushing attempts.

His value/production will never top that season and I'd be willing to bet my house on that.

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

I understand the same deal could be in place, but would you expect the Niners to accept it? 

If they are of the opinion that they have to trade him, then yes. I don't think the offers get considerably better, and it makes a ton of sense. I'd rather that deal than the later first that Green Bay or KC would offer along with some change (say they offer the Diggs deal, for example). 

35 / 38 may give this team a shot at darfting a replacement receiver and someone like Linderbaum (not convinced he's going to go in the first). That would be huge. They also have a ton of third round picks next year and 2 this year, so if someone like Burks is falling just a bit in the first round, could easily see them move 35 + a couple of thirds to get into hte middle / late 20's for Burks who also wins with the ball in his hands. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

His value/production will never top that season and I'd be willing to bet my house on that.

You're using the words 'value' and 'production' interchangeably, but that's not the case. RB production is not as valuable as WR production. It's about half as valuable, going by salary of elite RBs/WRs.

Deebo may not be more productive, but his second half could be more valuable.

Edited April 20, 2022 by ramssuperbowl99

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

You're using the words 'value' and 'production' interchangeably, but that's not the case. RB production is not as valuable as WR production. It's about half as valuable, going by salary of elite RBs/WRs.

Deebo may not be more productive, but his second half could be more valuable.

His value will never be higher because your value drops every year you get older, and he just showed he can play both WR and RB at a high level BUT nobody knows if he can replicate any of that.

His production will never be higher because he will never have another season where he goes 77/1400/6 and also 59/365/8.

Edited April 20, 2022 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

His value will never be higher because your value drops every year you get older, and he just showed he can play both WR and RB at a high level.

 

That's not how his value is being determined today. If he was a free agent and teams could offer based on speculation of what he will do, sure, but he's subject to the franchise tag, and value there is determined chiefly by the position label.

[drew39k]

This really feels like a good sell high opportunity for the 49ers. Deebo has injury concerns, a small track record and wants a ton of money. I feel like this type of receiver is going to be valued more like an rb in the coming years too. I.e. heavy usage and a shorter career. If they can get out a year or two early while picking up a first or multiple seconds, especially in a deep receiver draft, it's a good move to make.

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

14 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

That's not how his value is being determined today. If he was a free agent and teams could offer based on speculation of what he will do, sure, but he's subject to the franchise tag, and value there is determined chiefly by the position label.

Chances are his value, even as a WR, will never be higher than it is right now.

[ramssuperbowl99]

2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Chances are his value, even as a WR, will never be higher than it is right now.

Based on a hypothetical where teams could offer him contracts now, sure. Not based on how he was used and how the tag works - there's an argument to be made that his value for next year was cut in half.

So if you're arguing that Deebo is smart for requesting a trade now when there's a massive gap between what teams would speculatively pay for his value and how the NFL's tag system would churn out a 1 year deal for him, I agree.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Based on a hypothetical where teams could offer him contracts now, sure. Not based on how he was used and how the tag works - there's an argument to be made that his value for next year was cut in half.

So if you're arguing that Deebo is smart for requesting a trade now when there's a massive gap between what teams would speculatively pay for his value and how the NFL's tag system would churn out a 1 year deal for him, I agree.

He is smart for wanting to get paid more right now considering what we've seen.

My argument is that him saying it's not about the money and about how he was used is:

1. A lie

2. Hilarious considering how other teams with objectively worse systems will use him

[NVRamsFan]

Two of his three guys holding out?

 

 

[StatKing]

I don't understand why people are so willing to part with superstar players for draft picks. If I'm the Niners there is no scenario where I trade him. He was by far the most important piece of their offense last year. The kid is special.