Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[squire12]

30 minutes ago, Norm said:

He doesn't listen to this. Because that means he wasn't good enough for them to completely change their offense to be built around him in the FCS. So he's bad

I feel like the same concerns were brought up a month or so ago.....by the same poster

Edited June 13, 2022 by squire12

[squire12]

We have come full circle.

 

@JordanLoveFTW please re-read the posts below....more of the thread if you want some interesing posts

 

 

On 5/10/2022 at 11:22 AM, JordanLoveFTW said:

MVS ran a 4.37

from 20-40 yards he ran a 1.79

 

Watson ran a 4.36

from 20-40 yards he ran 1.91

 

 

MVS and Watson’s speed profiles are different. Watson has speed out of the gates 1.45 10 yard compared to MVS 1.55. But MVS shows better deep speed. 
 

What exactly this means, I’m not sure. But MVS was awfully good about getting deep separation. Maybe Watson will show improved early separation while not being as good running deep. 

 

On 5/10/2022 at 1:02 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

Watson profiles as having more burst than long speed. I’m not sure which is better. 
 

Theoretically, Watson should be able to create more early separation. It’s like when he gets the ball in his hands and just explodes away from defenders. 
 

MVS on the other hand had more build up speed. 
 

It will be interesting to see how his athletic profile (10 yard burst, less long speed) translates to the field compared to MVS. 

 

On 5/11/2022 at 4:20 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

Watson has no highlights or him breaking in or breaking out to create separation. He doesn’t show good route running agility. 
 

What people are confusing as agility is actually straight line explosiveness with the ball in his hands. And it shows up in his 10 yard split. 
 

Watson does not have high upside as a route runner. His in breaking and out breaking routes are clumsy. 
 

He does run a good stop route and a good go route and a deep post. The stop route alone makes him more diverse than MVS, who wouldn’t run any other routes besides the deep post and go routes. 
 

But Watson is not going to be winning on quick outs or deep outs or in breaking routes. He’s going to be winning deep and with that killer stop route and with some back shoulders. He’s a limited player who does a few things really well. A slightly more complete MVS. 

 

On 5/11/2022 at 4:26 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

MVS was a one trick pony. 
 

Watson is a three trick pony. 
 

1. Go routes and deep posts 

2. Stops and come backs 

3. Screens and jet sweeps 

 

 

He is not and will not be a complete player. I would bet on it. 
 

But if MVS is a 700 yard player, Watson can easily be a 1,000 yard guy with his extra tricks. 

 

On 5/11/2022 at 4:30 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

I challenge anyone to find one play where Watson shows agility breaking in or breaking out to make a catch. He doesn’t have them. They don’t exist. 
 

He runs stops and gos. That’s how he wins. He’s a couple trick pony, which is better than MVS’s one trick. 

 

On 5/12/2022 at 4:01 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

This is exactly it. He doesn’t create separation (besides go routes and stop routes.) Hes not a big body who bodies guys out and dominates with contested catches. So he’s limited. He’s going to be feast or famine. Two big plays for 110 yards one game and then 0 the next game. 
 

But we needed a deep threat and we got one. He’s going to produce. I highly doubt he’s a bust.

I just don’t think he’ll ever be a consistent #1 receiver. I see him as a deep threat and a #2 guy. 

 

On 5/12/2022 at 4:07 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

If Watson was able to do more they would have fed him the ball more. His lack of production makes total sense. They’re not retarded at NDSU. They would have done more if he was dominant. 

 

On 5/12/2022 at 4:09 PM, Norm said:

I don't think you watch NDSU football lol

I hate to be THAT GUY but I watched the replays of the majority of the season of USD SDSU UND and NDSU. 

They're conservative as all hell. The first QB last year couldn't read a defense to save his life. They weren't going to have him throw underneath timing routes to a dude who can run by every DB in the MVFC

That being said, I didn't watch as many of them after he was replaced so maybe the other guy was way better and they could have but not that first half. QB was total ***

 

 

On 5/12/2022 at 4:16 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

This list is the top 21 receiving yards leaders from 2021 in the NFL. I’m showing their best years from when they were in college. Cooper Kupp had a 1,700 yard college season and so on down the line. 
 

Watsons lack or production is a huge red flag. It’s not because NDSU is retarded, or because they run. You best believe if they had a guy who was always open they’d be throwing him the ball more. 
 

Cooper Kupp
Round 3 Pick 5
1,700 yards

Justin Jefferson
Round 1 Pick 22
1,540 yards

Davante Adams
Round 2 Pick 21
1,719 yards

Ja'Marr Chase (pro day)
Round 1 Pick 5
1,780 yards

Deebo Samuel
Round 2 Pick 4
882 yards

Tyreek Hill (pro day)
Round 5 Pick 26
281 yards

Stefon Diggs
Round 5 Pick 10
848 yards

Tyler Lockett
Round 3 Pick 5
1,515 yards


Diontae Johnson
Round 3 Pick 2
1,278 yards


DJ Moore
Round 1 Pick 24
1,033 yards

Kenny Golladay
Round 3 pick 32
1,156 yards

AJ Brown
Round 2 Pick 19
1,320 yards

Allen Robinson
Round 2 Pick 29
1,432 yards

DeAndre Hopkins
Round 1 Pick 27
1,405 yards

Calvin Ridley
Round 1 Pick 26
1,045 yards

Mike Williams (pro day)
Round 1 Pick 7
1,361 yards

Keenan Allen
Round 3 Pick 12
1,343 yards

Chris Godwin
Round 3 Pick 20
1,101 yards

CeeDee Lamb
Round 1 Pick 17
1,327 yards

Tee Higgins (pro day)
Round 2 Pick 1
1,167 yards

Michael Pittman
Round 2 Pick 2
1,275 yards

 

On 5/12/2022 at 4:26 PM, Norm said:

JFC stfu.

You just refuse to listen.

They averaged like ******* 18 pass attempts a game or something close to that. 18. 

Eastern W was throwing it over ******* 40 a contest with Kupp.

Now scale that for attempts with Watson's yardage. Oh wow what happens.

 

On 5/12/2022 at 4:48 PM, squire12 said:

Someone using bulk stats vs % of team passing game is an interesting take.

NDSU threw the ball like 15 times per game.  Possibly because they didn't need to throw the ball as the their run game and defense was that good.

Reflect back on the 2019 NFCCG GB vs SF

 

On 5/12/2022 at 5:27 PM, Packerraymond said:

 

They should really change their playbook, clearly not working.

 

On 5/12/2022 at 5:27 PM, PossibleCabbage said:

How are fans of the team that drafted Rashan Gary unaware of "sometimes projectable traits are much more important than production"?

 

On 5/13/2022 at 4:51 PM, squire12 said:

Senior Bowl 1 on 1

 

Wins on

in breaking route

Comeback

In breaking route

Back shoulder

Out breaking route

Stutter and go

Out breaking route

in breaking route

in breaking route

 

On 5/13/2022 at 5:11 PM, Norm said:

 

 

 

On 5/13/2022 at 5:20 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

Alright you guys, I’m half arguing just to argue. 
 

He has a skillset that can win right now and be a productive player in year 1.  (Go routes, come backs, back shoulders, screens and jet sweeps) Hes more well rounded than MVS right out of the gate. 
 

His weaker spots can be refined with hard work and experience I’m sure. But even if he mostly ends up leaning into his strengths, he can still be a 1,000 yard guy. 
 

He’s probably a good pick. I’m just giving you guys a little ****. 
 

 

 

On 5/13/2022 at 5:26 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

I think he looks really natural back shouldering. He did it a little at NDSU but I think Rodgers will get more out of that. That’s a really good change up to his go route. The come back is another good change up. The things he does really play off each other well. Even if he’s not a big slant or out-route guy, he’s got a nice little bag or tricks that he can win with right now. 
 

I’ve never seen a 6’4” guy so explosive with the ball in his hands. 
 

He’s an exciting player. 
 

And I’m being a **** comparing him to all time greats. I know it’s ridiculous. He probably isn’t going to be all world at every route and that’s not really a knock. 

 

On 5/13/2022 at 6:47 PM, squire12 said:

How many of these in/ out breaking routes did he run in college and NOT win on?

Didn't doesn't mean can't 

 

On 5/13/2022 at 6:51 PM, squire12 said:

 

Or....

 

 

On 5/15/2022 at 8:18 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

Based on what he did at NDSU, I picture him working 4 main routes from the outside. 
 

His bread and butter is the go route where he uses that explosiveness to blow by guys. 
 

Off of that, he’s shown a few successful change ups. 
 

He’ll run that stop route that’s so effective for him because of the speed threat. He’ll run a deep post because it’s another vertical route in his arsenal, and he’ll get back shoulders. 
 

I think he can do quite a bit of damage just using the go-to routes that he used at NDSU. 

 

On 5/16/2022 at 9:25 AM, vegas492 said:

You found the clips that I was looking for.  I was watching them and was like....

 

On 5/16/2022 at 9:30 AM, vegas492 said:

I think you can throw his college stuff out the window.

This is a kid that can block.  Our offense requires it.  And it will mimic run to pass.

If MLF can't come up with schemed plays to get this kid the ball, it's on him.  Because the physical traits are there.

Let's not complicate this for the rookie with any reading of defenses.  Just run the route and be where you are supposed to be.

 

On 5/17/2022 at 3:50 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

I’ll stand corrected that he’s limited on the slants. For a few reasons you guys mentioned. 
 

It’s just that tight quarters slant that he’ll struggle with. 

 

On 5/17/2022 at 6:55 PM, JordanLoveFTW said:

So after bouncing my ideas off you guys on what I thought his limitations were, and then being corrected a little bit, I’ve come to a final opinion of what I expect from Watson. 
 

He has potential to run all routes well except out routes and dig routes, where he really has to make an abrupt cut. 
 

He’ll struggle with contested catches. He doesn’t seem to use his size well to shrug off contact and still make a catch. 
 

His strength is his vertical routes and then the very effective comebacks that he works off of that. Included in his vertical strength is a natural ability to back shoulder, good ball tracking skills and even though he struggles with contact usually, down the field on 50/50 balls he’s pretty good going after the ball. 
 

Other than the couple knocks I have on him, he has potential to round out his game pretty well and be a #1 receiver. But I expect him to be a good #2. I just think the weaknesses are pretty important ones and will limit him from being a volume pass catcher. 

If he ran outs and digs better and was a beast working through contact, he would have been a top 10 pick. But he has his couple warts in what is an otherwise pretty exciting profile. 

 

On 5/24/2022 at 12:08 PM, OneTwoSixFive said:

Like @vegas492I wouldn't call Watson 'thin bodied' considering he is over 6'4" tall. Look at the picture below, he does not have the build you expect of 6'4" player that is also as fast as he is. Really fast guys tend to be short guys with very fast leg-speed or taller 180lb types.

Jordy was listed at 6'3" 216, 4.51 (though it is possible Jordy could have run as fast as 4.45, early in his career). Watson is maybe 6lbs lighter and an inch taller. There is insufficient difference between the two players physique to call Jordy big-bodied and Watson thin bodied.

If you want a bigger (stronger) guys, you get a Burks or London.....and then you get A 4.55 40 time (or maybe slower with London), rather than a 4.35 time - and Watson's original combine time was 4.28 (adjusted down later).

I'd guess that boxing out is one of the innumerable things Watson will learn to do better with pro experience - he has the physique (height/weight) to be fine in that area, he just needs reps against NFL calibre defenders, which he never faced at college.

I'm not saying he should be running a ton of slants, just that I think he could do it well with a little experience.

 

 

Just as an aside (and not related to running slants), in the picture below,  look at how low he gets for a 6'4" guy when he cuts, which allows him to take sharper angles. With his speed, that's going to give defenders trouble.

 

4 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

MVSs 40 yard dash was so/so out of the gate but the top speed was elite. Watson is elite out of the gate with so/so top speed. 
 

MVS did a great job on those deep posts of creating late separation with his build up speed. Watson might not be able to do that. 
 

Geeze, it makes you wonder if he could be a full on bust. You want to say he can do what MVS did on day 1, but even that is a question. 
 

But pick 34 is high for a WR. They really should hit on that pick. It’s not like drafting an OT or Edge where the good ones are gone in the 1st round. 

 

1 hour ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

Yeah, there’s a case to be made for him. Jeff Janis had a 9.89 RAS and there were cases made why that athleticism would transfer to the field. 
 

Watson had an underwhelming college career, never going over 800 yards in a season. In that college career he made 90% of his plays on two routes (go routes and comeback routes.) He rarely caught anything else. Is that enough of an arsenal moving up several notches of competition. And then there are his hands. 
 

Im not sold on this guy. Too many red flags. I think he could bust. 

 

1 hour ago, R T said:

Congratulations that is the 1000th time you have told this board that you think Watson could be a bust. A medal should be given out in your honor for this amazing accomplishment.   

 

[Sandy]

Sure he could bust. I was convinced Jake Stoneburner was going to be a Pro Bowl TE. Not all of them amount to something.

Maybe Watson's a head case who can't handle national media attention, or maybe his drops happen more frequently, or he just struggles with a full route tree. But I really hope he works out for us, and with his skills he certainly has a great shot to grow into the role he was drafted to take.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Sandy

[craig]

Agree with Sandy, and Jordan.  Obviously there's at least a chance that he will bust.  Everybody has a chance to bust.  (Including be injury.). But I don't see the probability being any more concerning that for your typical #34 pick.  

[vegas492]

11 hours ago, TheEagle said:

Watson’s deep speed is still good—just not as good as MVS. His 10-40 time is faster than Chris Olave and Jordy Nelson, for example. MVS has great deep speed (ala Usain Bolt). Problem is: his poor ball tracking ability rarely allows him to take advantage. It’s an underrated aspect to a WRs game. I remember watching Greg Jennings ball tracking ability coming out. It’s why I was so high on him.

Thought I'd point out, Watson's 40 yard dash time was 4.28.  It was adjusted up at the combine.  But the unofficial time was 4.28.

He's every bit as fast as MVS.  Much quicker and maybe tracks the ball better.

He isn't MVS, he's different, but he can easily do MVS things.

[Leader]

Watson's plenty fast enough. Period. These "incremental" comparisons to MVS are foolish. Get a dog.

His only "prove it to himself / me" issue are his hands. How will he catch the ball at this level - for which we'll have to wait.  I suspect he'll be okay along those lines as well....but again, we'll have to wait and see. 

I think our offense will survive sans Davante and I'm eager to see the difference on the field.

[MrBobGray]

Think people are way overrating the ability to run the entire tree.  That's not really the nature of the game in 2022 IMO; everything is so specialized and sub-package heavy that a guy who's elite at a couple things will get you a lot more value than a guy who's pretty good at everything.  MLF's offense thrives a lot on creating space by forcing the defense to react to a lot of threats moving laterally both pre and post-snap; focus on using Watson to run crossers and push the DBs to inside shade, then hit the back shoulder fades/comebacks.  Rinse and repeat. 

The team didn't try to replace Adams because there really isn't any replacing his role in this offense previously.  He was basically a one man show; split him out wide and let him and Aaron beat the defense on their talent alone.  Yeah they had plays designed to free him up, and occasionally he'd take snaps inside the design of the play, but they ran a lot of snaps where the other 9 guys did one thing, and Adams did another, and Rodgers got to basically pick where he wanted to target on the fly.  Adams has favorable coverage or a route Rodgers really likes?  He's getting the ball.  Defense strives to take him away?  Hit the weak spot they're leaving open against the called play because they have too many guys shaded to Tae.  49ers shut the offense down so completely in part because they were rotating coverage to Tae post-snap, throwing off the pre-snap read and scuttling that entire game plan way too often.

So in lieu of replacing Adams in that role, they're likely going to just scrap that system.  Focus more heavily on using the X inside of the design of the play in a variety of ways, including as a decoy and likely more often as a blocker.  Frees up some additional space because you're not trying to leave room for Adams to improv his way open, and ensures that you can run a variety of players out wide, with the bonus that you don't need such a dominant player outside to be effective.  That being said, it does mean that play-calling is going to be magnified in importance and Rodgers loses a safety blanket option when the called plays look to be in jeopardy pre-snap.

[cannondale]

MLF said in a recent presser that Adams was the first read on 80% (or was it 90%) of the plays. That confirmed some things to me and also shows why the Packers were a one trick pony in the playoffs and looked very vanilla. Blame Rodgers all you want and scream about one screenshot, but MLF designed himself into a corner and couldn't get out after one simple defensive adjustment that most likely happened after the second drive of the game.  Roll the coverage to Adams and don't give Rodgers time to get to his second reads (hence all the checkdowns). Shame on you MLF. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by cannondale

[OneTwoSixFive]

10 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

So in lieu of replacing Adams in that role, they're likely going to just scrap that system.  Focus more heavily on using the X inside of the design of the play in a variety of ways, including as a decoy and likely more often as a blocker.  Frees up some additional space because you're not trying to leave room for Adams to improv his way open, and ensures that you can run a variety of players out wide, with the bonus that you don't need such a dominant player outside to be effective.  That being said, it does mean that play-calling is going to be magnified in importance and Rodgers loses a safety blanket option when the called plays look to be in jeopardy pre-snap.

One other thing that might upset the apple cart is losing Hackett, who could pretty much breathe out gameplans in his sleep. How Stenavich can manage that now has become a key factor in how well the GB offense operates going forward.

[Brat&Beer]

6 hours ago, cannondale said:

MLF said in a recent presser that Adams was the first read on 80% (or was it 90%) of the plays. That confirmed some things to me and also shows why the Packers were a one trick pony in the playoffs and looked very vanilla. Blame Rodgers all you want and scream about one screenshot, but MLF designed himself into a corner and couldn't get out after one simple defensive adjustment that most likely happened after the second drive of the game.  Roll the coverage to Adams and don't give Rodgers time to get to his second reads (hence all the checkdowns). Shame on you MLF. 

I think what MLF did was accommodate Rodgers. Rodgers was always talking in his PC's about wanting to get the ball to Adams even more. I don't think that was MLF's original design of the offense. The good news is that we saw, in the games where Adams didn't play, that MLF knows how to construct a multi-faceted offensive game plan sans Adams. Hopefully that will become the normal now.    

[AlexGreen#20]

6 hours ago, cannondale said:

MLF said in a recent presser that Adams was the first read on 80% (or was it 90%) of the plays. That confirmed some things to me and also shows why the Packers were a one trick pony in the playoffs and looked very vanilla. Blame Rodgers all you want and scream about one screenshot, but MLF designed himself into a corner and couldn't get out after one simple defensive adjustment that most likely happened after the second drive of the game.  Roll the coverage to Adams and don't give Rodgers time to get to his second reads (hence all the checkdowns). Shame on you MLF. 

Rodgers being unable to recognize rolled coverage post snap is ABSOLUTELY a Rodgers problem. 

Are you serious with this?

[Packerraymond]

9 hours ago, cannondale said:

MLF said in a recent presser that Adams was the first read on 80% (or was it 90%) of the plays. That confirmed some things to me and also shows why the Packers were a one trick pony in the playoffs and looked very vanilla. Blame Rodgers all you want and scream about one screenshot, but MLF designed himself into a corner and couldn't get out after one simple defensive adjustment that most likely happened after the second drive of the game.  Roll the coverage to Adams and don't give Rodgers time to get to his second reads (hence all the checkdowns). Shame on you MLF. 

We paid 50 million to a guy who can't read a defense?

(We didn't, this is just a really bad take.)

[Norm]

MLF kept pushing X instead of O or Square or Triangle!!!!

[R T]

9 hours ago, cannondale said:

MLF said in a recent presser that Adams was the first read on 80% (or was it 90%) of the plays. That confirmed some things to me and also shows why the Packers were a one trick pony in the playoffs and looked very vanilla. Blame Rodgers all you want and scream about one screenshot, but MLF designed himself into a corner and couldn't get out after one simple defensive adjustment that most likely happened after the second drive of the game.  Roll the coverage to Adams and don't give Rodgers time to get to his second reads (hence all the checkdowns). Shame on you MLF. 

MLF never said that nor is it what he wanted. The 80% thing came from Rodgers from his interview at his locker last week, if it was actually 80% it was because Rodgers made it 80%. The Packers offense will be better this year, not because Adams isn't a great player, but because Rodgers can't use him as a crutch now. The MLF offense will finally be run to the way he envisioned it to be run...hopefully.   

[Norm]

41 minutes ago, R T said:

MLF never said that nor is it what he wanted. The 80% thing came from Rodgers from his interview at his locker last week, if it was actually 80% it was because Rodgers made it 80%. The Packers offense will be better this year, not because Adams isn't a great player, but because Rodgers can't use him as a crutch now. The MLF offense will finally be run to the way he envisioned it to be run...hopefully.   

MLF did take a lot of the blame after it all IIRC so I'm sure that's still sticking with them