Green Bay's Valuations of Draft Picks and Christian Watson

[Uffdaswede]

5 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

Dunno if this is the right thread for it, but I am stoked to see what Watson contributes as early as this year. As Packers fans, it is so rare we get treated to this caliber of offensive prospect.

You know, with all the chatter I’ve actually overlooked this simple truth. Adams developmental arc was such that we never really appreciated what we were seeing until he was there.

We may be disappointed in the end, but Watson is a true lottery ticket that allows me to be really excited about what he could be from the very get go. When’s the last time we had a chance to feel that way about an offensive prospect?

[n8ghee]

3 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

You know, with all the chatter I’ve actually overlooked this simple truth. Adams developmental arc was such that we never really appreciated what we were seeing until he was there.

We may be disappointed in the end, but Watson is a true lottery ticket that allows me to be really excited about what he could be from the very get go. When’s the last time we had a chance to feel that way about an offensive prospect?

Eddie Lacy was probably the last skill position player I had this level of excitement for

Edited May 4, 2022 by n8ghee

[incognito_man]

9 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

You know, with all the chatter I’ve actually overlooked this simple truth. Adams developmental arc was such that we never really appreciated what we were seeing until he was there.

We may be disappointed in the end, but Watson is a true lottery ticket that allows me to be really excited about what he could be from the very get go. When’s the last time we had a chance to feel that way about an offensive prospect?

Richard Rodgers probably

[VegasDan]

19 hours ago, Norm said:

Good point that I hadn't completely thought of in that simple of a way but they're going to trust their evals more often than not and think well the other 31 are wrong!!! Even though when you state it like that, it seems awful silly. 

It's the draft. Weird things happen.. Day 3 picks end up being part of the best 32 of the class every time. In those cases, every damn evaluation was faulty right? 

It's not always a result of the evaluation process. These kids aren't finished products.  People can't figure out how Donald Driver lasted to the 7th round when he was so good. Well, he wasn't that good in college. But he worked his butt off for years as a borderline NFL player until he became good. He kept working till he became great.   Tough to predict how much effort these kids will put in once they are in the NFL.

[Norm]

19 minutes ago, VegasDan said:

It's not always a result of the evaluation process. These kids aren't finished products.  People can't figure out how Donald Driver lasted to the 7th round when he was so good. Well, he wasn't that good in college. But he worked his butt off for years as a borderline NFL player until he became good. He kept working till he became great.   Tough to predict how much effort these kids will put in once they are in the NFL.

Absolutely. Probably the biggest factor in most of these guys. Sorry, wasn't trying to pretend that didn't matter. 

I'm guessing how they react to have real deal money is a large part of which way that stuff goes too. 

[TransientTexan]

5 hours ago, VegasDan said:

It's not always a result of the evaluation process. These kids aren't finished products.  People can't figure out how Donald Driver lasted to the 7th round when he was so good. Well, he wasn't that good in college. But he worked his butt off for years as a borderline NFL player until he became good. He kept working till he became great.   Tough to predict how much effort these kids will put in once they are in the NFL.

Also, the scheme fit can matter a lot, especially for certain positions. Like the way Campbell emerged last year. Or the way AJ Hawk’s production changed once the scheme switched. 
 

 

[gizmo2012]

On 4/30/2022 at 8:08 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

I think you're overthinking this one a bit mate. 

Packers really wanted a receiver and had to pay a premium to lock one down. 

So the Packers gave up 1 pick to draft Watson and that was a bad deal? Not in my opinion. Watsons measurables are off the chart so yes well worth the risk.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, gizmo2012 said:

So the Packers gave up 1 pick to draft Watson and that was a bad deal? Not in my opinion. Watsons measurables are off the chart so yes well worth the risk.

Where do you think I said this was a bad deal?

[VegasDan]

15 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

Also, the scheme fit can matter a lot, especially for certain positions. Like the way Campbell emerged last year. Or the way AJ Hawk’s production changed once the scheme switched. 
 

 

True, but I would call it a failure of the scouting process if you are drafting players not consistent with your scheme.

[R T]

8 minutes ago, VegasDan said:

True, but I would call it a failure of the scouting process if you are drafting players not consistent with your scheme.

You mean like people wanting to draft little WR's for MLF's offense?

[VegasDan]

11 minutes ago, R T said:

You mean like people wanting to draft little WR's for MLF's offense?

Any opportunity for a dig?

 

No. The conversation is about perceived failures of a scouting staff when a late round pick becomes a great player.   You seem to be talking about a mock draft selection you didn't agree with because of your perceived scheme fit and your evaluation of the player.

[R T]

17 minutes ago, VegasDan said:

Any opportunity for a dig?

 

No. The conversation is about perceived failures of a scouting staff when a late round pick becomes a great player.   You seem to be talking about a mock draft selection you didn't agree with because of your perceived scheme fit and your evaluation of the player.

You claimed the Packers would spend a bunch of capital to trade up for a 180-pound WR and then insinuated how clueless I was for disagreeing. Now you are telling people about scheme fit? So, are the Packers still seeking out 180-pound WR's or are you just sweeping that under the rug?

[VegasDan]

1 hour ago, R T said:

You claimed the Packers would spend a bunch of capital to trade up for a 180-pound WR and then insinuated how clueless I was for disagreeing. Now you are telling people about scheme fit? So, are the Packers still seeking out 180-pound WR's or are you just sweeping that under the rug?

You may want to reread my posts. Never insinuated anything, and actually came away from our interaction thinking there was some truth in your position.

 

But you should have realized by now that we drafted a wr that is nearly identical physically to garret Wilson in the 7th round.   7th round vrs 1st round - but we still drafted him and wouldn't have if we couldn't use him.

 

 

[Norm]

8 minutes ago, VegasDan said:

You may want to reread my posts. Never insinuated anything, and actually came away from our interaction thinking there was some truth in your position.

 

But you should have realized by now that we drafted a wr that is nearly identical physically to garret Wilson in the 7th round.   7th round vrs 1st round - but we still drafted him and wouldn't have if we couldn't use him.

 

 

I think the issue is we prefer bigger guys, sure. But we didn't have a chance at Olave or Williams at all. Did we really not want them? Maybe. But do we really know that based on the range they went, not really. Right?

That being said, I'm sure the later you get in the draft the less your guidelines matter for size and things like that. 

If Olave is there at 22 somehow and we didn't take him I think it would be settled, but he was not.

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, if you packaged 53 and 22 to move up, you could get as far as Washington at 11, but I doubt you were going to be able to outbid the Saints who are frankly a reckless team in the draft.  I'm pretty sure the Packers wanted to avoid "trading more than they got for Davante Adams to get a Wide Receiver" because that creates a clear "they traded Davante for who?" situation.  Note that they never actually made the pick they got from the Jets for Favre, but made it part of a complex trade that eventually netted Clay Matthews (and Jamon Meredith).

But if they were going to package 22 and 53 for Olave, then take Wyatt at 28 again, then Chad Muma or somebody at 59 you would end up with the same positions, but I'm not sure that I would feel better about that group.