2018 Draftable QB Discussion

[FGK]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/05/baker-mayfield-lincoln-riley-oklahoma-offense-draft-audibles-protections

This is a really cool article. Lincoln Reilly takes them through tape from 2015/2016 to 2017 to show how Mayfield got better in small ways from year to year and how the offensive juggernaut they were was part awesome play design, but also part Mayfield being fantastic.

I think this is a big part of why I have Mayfield #1. The guy got better in the small things every single year. That gives me a lot of confidence in him continuing to get better in those small things. Darnold was the athletic, tall, big armed prodigy his freshman year... and was kinda still that same guy his sophomore year. Now, that doesn't mean he won't get better, I think he will, and I hope he does. But it does make it hard for me to have as much confidence about him improving on the tiny details of the position as I do with Mayfield. (As always, assuming that his off the field checks out with the PI's and character sources that the organization SHOULD be sending).

[buno67]

31 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/05/baker-mayfield-lincoln-riley-oklahoma-offense-draft-audibles-protections

This is a really cool article. Lincoln Reilly takes them through tape from 2015/2016 to 2017 to show how Mayfield got better in small ways from year to year and how the offensive juggernaut they were was part awesome play design, but also part Mayfield being fantastic.

I think this is a big part of why I have Mayfield #1. The guy got better in the small things every single year. That gives me a lot of confidence in him continuing to get better in those small things. Darnold was the athletic, tall, big armed prodigy his freshman year... and was kinda still that same guy his sophomore year. Now, that doesn't mean he won't get better, I think he will, and I hope he does. But it does make it hard for me to have as much confidence about him improving on the tiny details of the position as I do with Mayfield. (As always, assuming that his off the field checks out with the PI's and character sources that the organization SHOULD be sending).

The only thing that worries me about Mayfield, is Haley/Hue willing to taylor the offense to his needs. Are they going to take concepts from Oklahoma and put it into their own offense for him. 

I also believe just about each year the talent on Oklahoma was getting better and better. Hell, to me, you look at all the top QBs, Mayfield came from the best program and better coaching staff. 

To me with Mayfield, he was able to improve the little things because in college, he maxed out his potential. Darnold, I think he barely scratched the surface. To me thats why Darnold has the higher ceiling for potential. 

I love it either way. Darnold is my #1 and Baker is #2 for me.

[bruceb]

1 hour ago, buno67 said:

To me with Mayfield, he was able to improve the little things because in college, he maxed out his potential. Darnold, I think he barely scratched the surface. To me thats why Darnold has the higher ceiling for potential. 

This sums it up nicely for me.

[buno67]

Hell I didn’t know Darnold changed his flight schedule so he could be at the make up pro day. Literally change things around to be there for teammates or friends. 

If you haven’t heard the Dilfer on the bull and fox show, go listen to it. He said some great things about all the QBs. The things he said about Darnold tho makes your jeans tonight. Makes me like baker but makes me worry about him because he said Baker would need the right offensive system. Said he needs to be compared to Brees and not Wilson

[TheeRealDeal]

11 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Hell I didn’t know Darnold changed his flight schedule so he could be at the make up pro day. Literally change things around to be there for teammates or friends. 

If you haven’t heard the Dilfer on the bull and fox show, go listen to it. He said some great things about all the QBs. The things he said about Darnold tho makes your jeans tonight. Makes me like baker but makes me worry about him because he said Baker would need the right offensive system. Said he needs to be compared to Brees and not Wilson

Dilfer knows more than us for sure, but I still don't hold his opinion very high at all. There are at least 100 people I'd listen to than know more of what they are talking about than Dilfer. If Baker Mayfield fails it will have absolutely nothing with the system he is playing in.

[FGK]

2 hours ago, buno67 said:

The only thing that worries me about Mayfield, is Haley/Hue willing to taylor the offense to his needs. Are they going to take concepts from Oklahoma and put it into their own offense for him. 

I also believe just about each year the talent on Oklahoma was getting better and better. Hell, to me, you look at all the top QBs, Mayfield came from the best program and better coaching staff. 

To me with Mayfield, he was able to improve the little things because in college, he maxed out his potential. Darnold, I think he barely scratched the surface. To me thats why Darnold has the higher ceiling for potential. 

I love it either way. Darnold is my #1 and Baker is #2 for me.

I get this. I do. I just don't agree with it.

I mean, where are we getting the idea that Baker is maxed out? What good NFL QBs came in maxed out because they did well in college? This seems like a confirmation bias thing, I like the less developed guy so the more developed one must be at his ceiling. As opposed to say, Darnold and Allen, in which case Allen is way to risky because he isn't developed.

I don't get why having good coaches, and being willing to learn from and listen to those coaches, is a mark against his development. Doesn't that just mean that he'll take less time to learn ABC and be ready to move on to XYZ quicker?

Physical tools =/= potential. If it did, we could just do a version of the combine with arm tests included and draft based on that. Your ceiling is where your strengths become elite and your weaknesses are improved on to the point where they don't kill you. With THAT definition of upside (realistic upside as opposed to physical/athletic upside), I think it's clear that Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson all have awesome upsides. Allen has upside too, but his bust factor is huge. None of them are maxed out because they are all 20 something year old kids. There's always something to improve. The question is does that person have the character, determination, and mental/physical ability to do so.

17 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Said he needs to be compared to Brees and not Wilson

Yes please.

[Aztec Hammer]

Comparing Mayfield to Brees feels outrageous to me. Literally the most accurate QB in pro football history.

[FGK]

6 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Comparing Mayfield to Brees feels outrageous to me. Literally the most accurate QB in pro football history.

Well, Brees' first three years were 61% or below, so it did take him time to develop into that. And Mayfield is one of the most accurate QBs in NCAA (somebody find me that sweet sweet all green accuracy map) history sooooo.... I mean, are we not allowed to make functional comparisons if the comp is too good? Cause I see people comparing Darnold to Rodgers all the time, soooooo.....

#ShrugEmoji

[Aztec Hammer]

2 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Well, Brees' first three years were 61% or below, so it did take him time to develop into that. And Mayfield is one of the most accurate QBs in NCAA (somebody find me that sweet sweet all green accuracy map) history sooooo.... I mean, are we not allowed to make functional comparisons if the comp is too good? Cause I see people comparing Darnold to Rodgers all the time, soooooo.....

#ShrugEmoji

FWIW, DIlfer didn't compare Mayfield to Brees, he said Brees is the QB that Mayfield should try to emulate. I suppose I get the functional comparison to Brees if it's related to a belief that they have similar styles in finding lanes and delivering the ball in time. I get that more so than a direct comparison of skill set like saying hey look Baker is super accurate in college so he must be like Brees, who is accurate at a significantly higher degree of difficulty.

Not sure if the Darnold/Rodgers thing is to me specifically, but I have always made a point of stating that any comparison between the two that I make is based on play style, and not direct comparison to skill level.

Rodgers pretty much has no comparison in that regard. But Darnold has a comparable penchant for delivering unique plays off platform. I suppose that could be characterised as a functional comparison too rather than a direct one.

[MSURacerDT55]

16 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

FWIW, DIlfer didn't compare Mayfield to Brees, he said Brees is the QB that Mayfield should try to emulate. I suppose I get the functional comparison to Brees if it's related to a belief that they have similar styles in finding lanes and delivering the ball in time. I get that more so than a direct comparison of skill set like saying hey look Baker is super accurate in college so he must be like Brees, who is accurate at a significantly higher degree of difficulty.

Not sure if the Darnold/Rodgers thing is to me specifically, but I have always made a point of stating that any comparison between the two that I make is based on play style, and not direct comparison to skill level.

Rodgers pretty much has no comparison in that regard. But Darnold has a comparable penchant for delivering unique plays off platform. I suppose that could be characterised as a functional comparison too rather than a direct one.

How about Roethlisberger for Darnold?

[Aztec Hammer]

1 minute ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

How about Roethlisberger?

I don’t really like directly comparing the skill level of college QBs to legendary pro QBs because I think it’s too much of a push. We just don’t know at this point how the guy (whoever it is) will hold up in the pros because the talent level is such a step up.

But I don’t mind cheating a bit and comparing the college QBs style of play to pro QBs.

I don’t really think Roethlisberger is the best comp. I’ve heard it a lot but I don’t really see it. Roethlisberger is bigger and done his damage more from in the pocket and shrugging off defenders before throwing. Darnold doesn’t shrug defenders off so much as evade them and make throws on the move or off-platform.

Darnold’s a finesse style big guy. Roethlisberger’s a power style bigger guy.

[Kiwibrown]

20 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

I don’t really like directly comparing the skill level of college QBs to legendary pro QBs because I think it’s too much of a push. We just don’t know at this point how the guy (whoever it is) will hold up in the pros because the talent level is such a step up.

But I don’t mind cheating a bit and comparing the college QBs style of play to pro QBs.

I don’t really think Roethlisberger is the best comp. I’ve heard it a lot but I don’t really see it. Roethlisberger is bigger and done his damage more from in the pocket and shrugging off defenders before throwing. Darnold doesn’t shrug defenders off so much as evade them and make throws on the move or off-platform.

Darnold’s a finesse style big guy. Roethlisberger’s a power style bigger guy.

Big Ben is massive and has more inertia than a lot of DE's when he is moving. 
I learned that from watching Kessler, you have to be able to move or shift through people.

Darnold has a bit of Andrew Luck to him, bu he is slower. 

And he has a bit of Rodgers to him in tha he glides away from pressure. 

But not as good as either. 

I think of Darnold as a B- B+ version of Luck. Luck was probably the 4th best Prospect from Elway onwards IMO. 

Elway
Manning
Luck
Darnold/Goff

I highly rated Goff, he throws a beautiful ball. 

[bruceb]

7 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

I think of Darnold as a B- B+ version of Luck. Luck was probably the 4th best Prospect from Elway onwards IMO. 

Elway
Manning
Luck
Darnold/Goff

Pretty good company, yes?

[Kiwibrown]

15 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Pretty good company, yes?

Yessir. I would have Couch on that level as well or a tier below. 

I think couch would of been fantastic on a team that had an ok line, and a decent coah. I don't think Palmer diverted any pressure away from the rookie QB. 

[Bonanza23]

18 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

Big Ben is massive and has more inertia than a lot of DE's when he is moving. 
I learned that from watching Kessler, you have to be able to move or shift through people.

Darnold has a bit of Andrew Luck to him, bu he is slower. 

And he has a bit of Rodgers to him in tha he glides away from pressure. 

But not as good as either. 

I think of Darnold as a B- B+ version of Luck. Luck was probably the 4th best Prospect from Elway onwards IMO. 

Elway
Manning
Luck
Darnold/Goff

I highly rated Goff, he throws a beautiful ball. 

I keep coming back to Luck as his best comparison. But...I think he’s such a unique prospect that I keep going back to other comparisons. I did read an interesting comparison that I actually somewhat agree with, and that’s Joe Montana. Albeit a bigger framed Montana. Montana and Darnold are both really composed in critical moments and when the lights are on they deliver. I also read an interesting snippet from a paid site that I may cliff note in here about Darnolds high school days.  Don’t have the time to go into it right now.

Btw that is part of that “it” factor that I subscribe in.