2023 NFL Draft Talk

[Texansfan713]

5 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Would anyone be opposed to us taking a CB with pick 12? Looking at the draft board, its possible that there are several value picks at CB available when we select. 

Said it before,  I hope we go BPA on defense assuming we go QB with pick 2.  If it's CB then so be it.  

[LORK88]

21 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

Said it before,  I hope we go BPA on defense assuming we go QB with pick 2.  If it's CB then so be it.  

BPA in general for me. Our offense is still atrocious so whatever will help us the most, let's go for it. I don't care if it's CB, WR, DL, OL, just take an impact player and let the rest figure itself out. 

[Blaze]

Richardson may get Caseio fired but any of the prospects can do that. AR15 closing the game, even in shorts, is good for the top 5 of the draft. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

On 2/2/2023 at 3:44 PM, Texansfan713 said:

I hope we go BPA on defense assuming we go QB with pick 2.

     There's an old Russian saying:

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    "Kto skazal 'A'..."

    "Once you've said 'A'...[you must say 'B']."

 

     If the Texans are going to take a QB at #2 isn't there a logical--if not moral--obligation to give him someone to target?  Preferably someone big and close, since the rookie QB won't have a lot of time?  Someone like Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer?  Otherwise, I don't know how anyone will be able to evaluate the new QB.  Yes, Houston fans want a Manning, but not Archie.

     Personally, I'd trade down for the same reasons Chicago should, but that doesn't seem to have much of a constituency.

[PAtexansFAN_99]

I  would love to get a massive deal for 1.2. If we can get like three ones, or two ones and two twos for it, sign me up

[ET80]

15 hours ago, Blaze said:

Richardson may get Caseio fired but any of the prospects can do that. AR15 closing the game, even in shorts, is good for the top 5 of the draft. 

I mean… that’s a 30 yard throw that his receiver had to extend to get. Why my I supposed to be impressed by that again?

I like AR15 as QB3, but that “sling” gets a WR killed. A S like Kevin Byard breaks every rib in that WRs body with a throw like that, we go to TV timeout on that impending hit.

13 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

If the Texans are going to take a QB at #2 isn't there a logical--if not moral--obligation to give him someone to target?  Preferably someone big and close, since the rookie QB won't have a lot of time?  Someone like Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer?  Otherwise, I don't know how anyone will be able to evaluate the new QB.  Yes, Houston fans want a Manning, but not Archie.

The talk is that the Texans will probably select a WR with 1.12 - Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston and Mayer are all on the table at that spot - and if the Texans go defense with 1.12, don’t be surprised if Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jalin Hyatt is the selection at 2.2.

There is also the impending return of 2022 2nd round pick John Metchie III, who is in remission after his leukemia scare - and the team might want to check in with WR Brandin Cooks following the Ryans hire, see if his disposition on the organization has changed.

There has also been a lot of talk that Tee Higgins will become available via trade - he’s better than any WR available via draft, so get on the phone and see what can be done.

Options are available - and the Texans have capital to explore each option. Guys like Chris Moore and Chris Conley are ST camp bodies now, not fighting for O snaps.

13 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Personally, I'd trade down for the same reasons Chicago should, but that doesn't seem to have much of a constituency.

I honestly think the Texans need a true impact player (regardless of position). Sure, Young or Stroud can both be that guy - but Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, Mayer, Bijan Robinson, Addison? They need to walk away with someone of that caliber, too. 

Whatever the trade down is, don’t go TOO far down. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

I honestly think the Texans need a true impact player (regardless of position). Sure, Young or Stroud can both be that guy - but Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, Mayer, Bijan Robinson, Addison? They need to walk away with someone of that caliber, too.

     Agreed.  If Caserio sits he is dealt two studs and could get lucky at #34:

@#2:  Bryce Young or Will Anderson
@#12:  Michael Mayer, Christian Gonzalez, Bijan Robinson, Top 2 CB
@#34:  Edger Felix Anudike-Uzomah or Nolan Smith
@#66: IOL Jarrett Patterson, DL Calijah Kancey

     If he trades down to QB-hungry #9 Carolina Nick might score 3 First Round Panther Picks but let's be conservative and say he lands 2 1sts and a 2023 2nd.  Using Tankathon's latest mock he could get:

@#9:  #1 CB Joey Porter Jr., #1 WR Quentin Johnston
@#12, #34, and #66: Unchanged
@#40: TE Darnell Washington or Dalton Kincaid, LB Noah Sewell

     QB?  The weird thing about the 2023 class is that QB may be the position yielding the biggest bumper crop this year.  (This is not the year you want to be rebuilding an O-Line.)

@#74: QB Hendon Hooker (or Jaren Hall at #105)

      I think Hooker would look very good in a Texans uniform.  If he craps out?  2024's top end QBs look at least as good as Young/Stroud.  In essence, Caserio could be trading Bryce Young for Joey Porter, Noah Sewell, and [quite possibly] Caleb Williams.

[ET80]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

In essence, Caserio could be trading Bryce Young for Joey Porter, Noah Sewell, and [quite possibly] Caleb Williams.

I’ve been pretty steadfast on how punting for Caleb Williams is a dangerous proposition - this year sort of proved that tanking for #1 is never a sure thing, the Texans had 1.1 for the entire season… until about :20 seconds left in the W18 game vs the Colts. Even the worst team in football is a Hail Mary away from winning a meaningless game that gets them out of the drivers’ seat. 

With new coaching and someone other than Davis Mills, the Texans are going to win more games than last year. While I agree that the ‘23 class should be “better” (Williams is better at least - I’m still not sold on Maye, Ewers, Rattler, Penix or Nix) you really need to ensure the top pick to get the guy you want. In the AFCS, wins vs a rebuilding Colts team and a Tennessee team on the verge of falling off a cliff are a foregone conclusion - and the Texans always play the Jags uber tough, so there’s six competitive games right there. A 5-12 record will never get a #1 pick… so are you really punting to pick a guy like Rattler or Ewers (who probably grade better than Levis or Richardson but not better than Stroud or Young?)

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

A 5-12 record will never get a #1 pick…

     Agreed, but two 5-12 records should.  The Houston pick and the [Carolina] one Caserio gets for Young/Stroud should be enough to score the #1 pick in most circumstances.

     Thus, you're converting one 2023 #2 overall pick into [Carolina's 2024 2nd rounder and] two firsts:  2023 #9 and the Panthers' 2024.  Wait a year--this process will take a least two--and complete the circle by converting two into one:  Houston's own 2024 and Carolina's 2024 (both in or near the top 6) into whomever is the best QB available.  Any action has risks but this one might backfire only if Houston or their trading partner (e.g. Carolina) suddenly become contenders.

      In the meantime lots of "good" things can happen:  the Texans or Panthers might be picking #1;  there might be 2 (e.g. Stroud & Young) or more primo QB options;  the temp (e.g. Hooker) might work out;  a different trade might materialize, etc.  Worse comes to worst, trade down again.  It's a heads-you-win, tails-you-break-even process.  This rebuild could easily take four or more years, even with smart choices.

      As an aside, I wouldn't count on Indianapolis being dismal in 2023.  They aren't "rebuilding" in the same sense as Houston;  they are coming off a disastrous year during which they incurred the second most injuries in the league [after New England] and had poor coaching.

[lumberjackchris]

This is my draft crush. He could be Brian Urlacher

[ET80]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Agreed, but two 5-12 records should.  The Houston pick and the [Carolina] one Caserio gets for Young/Stroud should be enough to score the #1 pick in most circumstances.

Assuming someone who is picking 1.1 doesn’t need a QB. Even if you offer the moon, there will be a GM or two who will say “nope, not passing on Williams…”

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     In the meantime lots of "good" things can happen:  the Texans or Panthers might be picking #1;  there might be 2 (e.g. Stroud & Young) or more primo QB options;  the temp (e.g. Hooker) might work out;  a different trade might materialize, etc.  Worse comes to worst, trade down again.  It's a heads-you-win, tails-you-break-even process.  This rebuild could easily take four or more years, even with smart choices.

In that same vein, the Texans can take Stroud, pair him with Marvin Harrison Jr in 2024 and be in a Cincinnati situation in two years. Like the saying goes, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush - you have a bird in hand right now with either Young or Stroud. 

Texans have a history of overthinking it with decisions like this - just do the obvious thing for once, it works out more than these hypotheticals. Remember Cleveland trading down with the Texans so the Texans can select Deshaun Watson in 2017? In a roundabout way… how many picks did that end up costing Cleveland? Drafting Deshone Kiser in the 2nd, Busting on Baker at 1.1 the following year, giving up an additional three FRPs for Watson - wouldn’t it have been more economical to just draft Watson?

In our heads, these multiplication scenarios always work out - but realistically, teams that doubled down the board tend to lose big. I can’t think of a scenario where moving down after moving down ever ACTUALLY works. 

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      As an aside, I wouldn't count on Indianapolis being dismal in 2023.  They aren't "rebuilding" in the same sense as Houston;  they are coming off a disastrous year during which they incurred the second most injuries in the league [after New England] and had poor coaching.

Oh no - this team is dead and hollow on the inside. Watching them actually play, they look lost and really contingent on a bad Jax and Houston. Injuries notwithstanding, they lack top end talent (don’t expect Shaq Leonard to come back as an impact player, his spine is in REAL trouble). If they go with Jeff Saturday and double down with Will Levis at 4, they’ll be bad for a while - and if they trade up to draft Bryce Young, I don’t see that working out for them, as they have a LOT of holes nobody is really considering (both Ts, RG, TE, WR2-5, the entire front seven). They’ve been making a lot of bad decisions in the draft at the top (Rock Ya-Sin, Jacob Eason, Kwity Payne, Dayo Odayingbo) and sustained mistakes like that tend to linger.

It’s more than injuries - this is a bad team with bad ownership putting them in bad situations.

[Pastor Dillon]

I don’t think anyone is trading up to number 1 to take Young. Once the bears realize they aren’t getting a massive haul, they will take Anderson or Carter and we will have our pick of QBs. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

14 hours ago, ET80 said:

Assuming someone who is picking 1.1 doesn’t need a QB. Even if you offer the moon, there will be a GM or two who will say “nope, not passing on Williams…”

     True.  However, it's never exactly one team.  "One choice" is an oxymoron.  In years where there is deemed to be at least one franchise QB (i.e. not 2022) bobble heads will, by definition, create options for the first vacancy (i.e. the first spot not known to be going to a QB).  Thus, for as long as the team with the #1 pick (Chicago) isn't taking a QB the media will settle on (0+2=) 2 franchise QBs:  Young and Stroud.  When Jacksonville, the Jets, and 49ers lined up 1-2-3 for QBs two years ago there were (3+2=) 5 perceived "franchise" QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Jones and Fields) going in the top 15.  If and when Chicago trades down with a QB-hungry team there will be four "franchise" QBs (two known--Young and Stroud at #1 and #2--and two unknown, likely Levis and Richardson) featured in every discussion.  (N.B.  We're talking about perceptions on Draft Day, completely divorced for the reality/results that 2022 may have yielded one franchise QB in Kenny Pickett and 2021 may have given us as few as one, Trevor Lawrence.)  So it goes.

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In that same vein, the Texans can take Stroud, pair him with Marvin Harrison Jr in 2024 and be in a Cincinnati situation in two years.

     Only if the coaches, general manager, defense, and O-Line are comparable to Cincinnati's.  Otherwise you'd have Air Coryell without Don or any of his offensive players except Dan Fouts and Wes Chandler.  Even if Caserio plugs all of its offensive holes he's still well short of average.  By my count, the Texans have eight positions at replacement level and two other areas of concern.  Even with deft free agency moves and some of those gaps filled by veterans returning from IR, this will require more than one off-season.

     In 2023 Jacksonville will remind us why we shouldn't take our franchise QB before he has anything to work with.  (It's tougher to continue building a roster with the 25th pick than the first.  It's tougher to win with a playoff team's schedule than that of a DFL franchise.  Mind you, it's tougher still to pass up a generational QB such as Trevor Lawrence;  he may be the exception that proves every rule.)

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In our heads, these multiplication scenarios always work out - but realistically, teams that doubled down the board tend to lose big. I can’t think of a scenario where moving down after moving down ever ACTUALLY works.

      As the geeks say:  "Good teams trade up, bad teams trade down."

      To wit, San Francisco and the Rams sold the farm to get what they hoped would be the last piece in the puzzle (i.e. a QB).  Teams such as Chicago will be trading down as a force multiplier;  I would argue Houston should do the same--and for the same reason.   

      Losing teams making dreadful decisions is a causation spiral.  The hope, however forlorn, is to avoid the horrendous choices those other teams have made in similar circumstances.  We try to forget the spoils--pun intended--of Washington's 1999 "Ricky Williams" trade.

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      "All you can do is do what you must.
       You do what you must do, and you do it well." - Bob Dylan

      We'll have to return to the Colts after the draft.

[Pastor Dillon]

People are talking about us trading up to number 1. I’m 100% against this. 
 

We can’t afford to give up prime draft Capitol at the point and there isn’t a sure fire franchise changing QB out there. If it was Joe Burrow or someone like that, I’d sell the farm but trading pick 33 to move up to number is not a good ide. 

[jch1911]

12 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

People are talking about us trading up to number 1. I’m 100% against this. 
 

We can’t afford to give up prime draft Capitol at the point and there isn’t a sure fire franchise changing QB out there. If it was Joe Burrow or someone like that, I’d sell the farm but trading pick 33 to move up to number is not a good ide. 

If Caserio trades to #1, fired this year.

If not fired, it came from Cal - and I almost guarantee Hannah reads the comments and the room so she wouldn't let Cal do this.