Honest critical assessment of your teams top young talent

[NJC33]

This time of year, every fanbase is guilty of drinking the kool-aid to some extent. No matter the thread, we find a way to boast about our young talent - cognitive bias in full effect. More often than not, the only real weaknesses outlined about our team's most polarizing talent comes from opposing fans, in which case the sentiment might be spot on, but the actually analysis is arbitrary and equally subjective. 

Hoping we can get some honest and critical feedback from those in the know. We've heard the hype from each fanbase, think it would interesting to now hear the legitimate concerns and shed some insight as to why the naysayers might be right. For the Jets, Zach Wilson is the obvious target:
 

Get rid of the ball: Zach's biggest weakness right now stems from his indecisiveness, lack of confidence in the pocket and not trusting his eyes downfield. Wilson was sacked 44 times last season (3rd most in the league), despite missing four games. Contrary to years past, the Jets offensive line was the team's best group, which is to say, there's no excuse here - need proof? Jets quarterbacks were sacked just ~3% of the time in the four games Zach missed, compared to ~10% with him under center. 

It was was evident throughout the season that Zach felt most comfortable playing 'sandlot' football, at times, almost as if he was just waiting for the pocket to collapse. He finished the season with the third worst time-to-throw among qualified QBs (3sec). Here are the statistics on plays in which he held the ball for at least 2.5sec (33 qualified QBs):

• 51.7 passer rating (33rd)
• 5% interception rate (30th)
• 59.4% adjusted completion percentage (33rd)

Now a look at Wilson's numbers when he gets the ball off under 2.5sec:

• 94 passer rating (23rd)
• 0% interception rate (1st)
• 82.8% adjusted completion percentage (6th)

Wilson wasn't capable of reading NFL defenses quick enough or simply didn't have the confidence to trust what he was seeing. As a result of having to throw the ball last minute, his mechanics would go to sh** and his passes were wildly inaccurate. It was almost baffling how bad he was on the should be "gimme" attempts - posting a 79% completion percentage on passes behind the LOS (worst in the league). This is the routine stuff that kills an offense. Again: lack of confidence > poor mechanics > inaccuracy. 

The Good: His deficiencies aren't 'talent' related, at least physically - incredibly natural thrower, arm strength, athleticism. Wilson was one of the more accurate passers in college football, this wasn't supposed to be his achilles heal - which is to say, there are underlying detriments (mentally), but he's highly capable if he can resolve the former. That's a good thing, because legitimate accuracy issues are hard to overcome, unless you're Josh Allen. Finally, contrary to those just looking to mock the Jets, his progression in the second half of the season was very much evident. All relative (No he wasn't great), but you saw a far more composed player in the pocket, despite playing with practice squad weapons down the stretch. 

The Bad: How can you not be concerned with what you saw from a processing/confidence perspective? Especially in comparison to some of these great young quarterbacks -- Borrow stepped into the league with the poise of a seasoned vet. The stats were great, but moreover, you just knew from how he conducted himself that this dude was the real deal. The same can be said about so many of the leagues best right now. Zach didn't have it his rookie season and that's a very legitimate worry. All the physical ability means nothing if he doesn't have the processing prowess, poise and confidence to showcase that talent. 

 

[Soko]

Mac Jones’ biggest criticism is an incredibly overstated component to his game…but is still existent.

Arm strength, that’s what most people love to harp on. And they’d be right in some respects, Mac absolutely does not have the howitzer that we’ve been seeing the top end guys have (Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers), nor does he even have an arm that one would consider strong (Burrow, Dak, Russ). He definitely needs his feet in order to get the ball downfield, very much like Brady and Brees. The really talented QBs can launch the ball running to their left, as they’re being hit, both feet in the air, etc. Mac doesn’t have that. 

That said, he’s not noodle armed either. He’s not Christian Ponder, late staged Drew Brees, post surgery Chad Pennington, or zombie Peyton. Mac gets the ball where it needs to, he just won’t be doing it off his back foot while a defensive end is already a half second in the process of breaking him in half. He’s got better mobility than he gets credit for, but isn’t Patrick Mahomes either. His physically limitations are certainly present, but they’re overstated.

Mac Jones has plus accuracy and placement, but we need to see him take charge and attack a little bit more. Belichick/McDaniels were certainly taking things slow last year, especially early. Is that an indictment on Jones (who most considered a smart guy) or was it the coaches wanting to take their rookie QB slow? Probably a bit of both, but I suspect a bit more of the latter. This 2001 Honda Civic also doesn’t have much of a top gear, either - even with the keys, Mac wasn’t winning any races in that car. All early, grain-of-salt indicators have shown that Mac is more comfortable, in better shape, and has more control in the offense, so we’ll have to see if he takes the next step. 

Tldr; Mac is physically limited but isn’t the noodle arm he’s sometimes made out to be. He needs to take the next step as far as commanding the offense and taking more risks in his second year, given the limited cast and new coaches.

[INbengalfan]

QB  Burrow.  He's great.  He has a solid arm, is a great adjuster and checks just about every intangible box you could ask for in your starting QB.  Should be the starting QB for at least the next decade.

WR  We have 2 top end WRs in Chase and Higgins.  Can't see them letting either test the market and should play with burrow at least 10 years or more.

RB  Mixon is still young, but on his second deal.  I don't think he gets a third deal with the three previously mentioned players all on rookie deals that end realtivelky soon except Chase.  Evans is a nice change of pace guy, and entering year two, but still is a backup.

TE  We don't have anyone particularly young.  Sample enters year 4 but is JAG.

OL We have a few young guys, but no one has stood out yet.  Jonah Williams is solid.  Carman was injured and way behind his rookie year, and D'Ante Smith was banged up a lot too his rookie campaign.  But by adding three veteran free agents, I think at least one is blocked from seeing the field anytime soon.

 

DL  Most of them are veterans.  Rookie Joseph Ossai got hurt in preseason, but flashed in limited time.  There is hope for him, but he hasn't done a thing yet.

LB  Besides Burrow and Higgins, the 2020 draft class also yielded Logan Wilson, who has been quite good for us when healthy.  Two more LBs (Bailey, Davis-Gaither) came from that class, and Pratt the draft previous.  They are better than any group we've had in years, but are still developing.  They have potential is the best way I'd put it.

CB  EWe just drafted Cam Britt Taylor, so the youth movement has started there.  Everyone else in the room are veterans, so not much to discuss there.

S  Bates hasn't signed the franchise tender yet, but he's very good, and plays like an All pro in spurts, including last year's playoff run.  Bell isn't young, but the team just drafted two rookie safeties in case either or both leave in free agency next year in Dax Hill and Tycen anderson.  My hope is that they extend Bates, and use Hill as a secondary weapon and move him around.  Anderson is a box safety type and likely long term Vonn Bell replacement starting in 2023.

 

K  M<cPherson is a weapon.  He might already be a top 5 player at the position, but still only second best in the division.

P  Huber remains, but rumors are they were targeting either PSU punter Jordan Stout or Georgia punter Jaske Carmada as rookie replacements, as Huber has been here like 15 years or something.

LS  They signed the top LS as a UDFA, but he has to beat out incumbent Harris, who has been Huber's snapper forever.

 

TL,DR  Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Wilson are an extremely strong young core.  The rest of the younger guys have to take a few steps up to join them long term.

[TheRealMcCoy]

Before doing a write-up...... I'm curious what we consider young talent to be?

Is it just guys on their rookie contracts? Is their an age cut off like 25 or 26?

Some guys come into the league at 23-24 and are 25 or 26 by their first or second season in the league.

I just wanna know the parameters before writing about guys.

Anyone can weigh in here.

[MWil23]

14 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

QB  Burrow.  He's great.  He has a solid arm, is a great adjuster and checks just about every intangible box you could ask for in your starting QB.  Should be the starting QB for at least the next decade.

Agree with all of this, but if we are being honest he turns it over way too much.

[INbengalfan]

44 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Agree with all of this, but if we are being honest he turns it over way too much.

And he readily admits that he takes chances trying to make plays, especially when behind.  Having an improved OL will definitely help with that, plus hopefully having more leads and not being so "Brett Favre-ish" with the ball

[43M]

Steelers

QB:   Not overly enthused.    I think AT BEST, we might have a Ryan Tannehill level player at QB between Trubisky and Pickett.   A guy we can likely win with, but isnt going to make annual contenders just by his presence.    That being said, we should have the best QB play we have had since 2018.    Thats not saying much, though.

RB:   I really like Najee and believe he has top 5 talent.    Question is, will the OLine do their job?    And sadly, we dont really have any talent at RB behind him, so Tomlin is going to run him into the ground.

WR/TE:    Really like our potential at WR, even if there are alot of questions.   This is the most balanced stable we have had in over 5 years.     DJ is good, but I wouldnt pay him the top 5-7 money he wants unless he really proves something this year.    Claypool needs to be used the right way.  Friermuth has nice upside at TE.  Really excited to see what Pickens and Austin bring.

OLine:   

Ugh.    Really not much to talk about.  I like James Daniels, but he isnt really that young.   Moore might have some upside, but Im not getting my hopes up.     The only other guy I am slightly hopeful for is Kevin Dotson, who still has some untapped potential, but doubtful it turns into much.    The rest is pretty ugly.

 

DLine:   Leal is the only young talent we have that I have any faith in being an eventual starter.   The other young talent should make good depth, though

LBs:    Highsmith could still become a solid compliment to TJ.  Right now he is just serviceable.    Devin Bush is pretty awful and I dont expect much more than him MAYBE getting back to where he was pre injury, which still wasnt that good....but somewhat serviceable, at least.   No other young talent to speak of.

Secondary:   We have a pretty young secondary, but none of them are really developmental players.   Minkah is pretty good, even with his flaws.     Our CB crew has some decent upside, but none of them are really world beaters.     Edmunds is JAG.    

Steelers have alot of young PLAYERS....I just dont have much faith in most of them.

[GHARMON9]

19 hours ago, 43M said:

Steelers

QB:   Not overly enthused.    I think AT BEST, we might have a Ryan Tannehill level player at QB between Trubisky and Pickett.   A guy we can likely win with, but isnt going to make annual contenders just by his presence.    That being said, we should have the best QB play we have had since 2018.    Thats not saying much, though.

RB:   I really like Najee and believe he has top 5 talent.    Question is, will the OLine do their job?    And sadly, we dont really have any talent at RB behind him, so Tomlin is going to run him into the ground.

WR/TE:    Really like our potential at WR, even if there are alot of questions.   This is the most balanced stable we have had in over 5 years.     DJ is good, but I wouldnt pay him the top 5-7 money he wants unless he really proves something this year.    Claypool needs to be used the right way.  Friermuth has nice upside at TE.  Really excited to see what Pickens and Austin bring.

OLine:   

Ugh.    Really not much to talk about.  I like James Daniels, but he isnt really that young.   Moore might have some upside, but Im not getting my hopes up.     The only other guy I am slightly hopeful for is Kevin Dotson, who still has some untapped potential, but doubtful it turns into much.    The rest is pretty ugly.

 

DLine:   Leal is the only young talent we have that I have any faith in being an eventual starter.   The other young talent should make good depth, though

LBs:    Highsmith could still become a solid compliment to TJ.  Right now he is just serviceable.    Devin Bush is pretty awful and I dont expect much more than him MAYBE getting back to where he was pre injury, which still wasnt that good....but somewhat serviceable, at least.   No other young talent to speak of.

Secondary:   We have a pretty young secondary, but none of them are really developmental players.   Minkah is pretty good, even with his flaws.     Our CB crew has some decent upside, but none of them are really world beaters.     Edmunds is JAG.    

Steelers have alot of young PLAYERS....I just dont have much faith in most of them.

I thought Devin Bush was a good player his rookie year. What happened?

[SmittyBacall]

On 6/26/2022 at 8:54 AM, MWil23 said:

Agree with all of this, but if we are being honest he turns it over way too much.

Eh, I don’t believe that to be true. At the beginning of last year, yes. But it really can’t be understated how afflicted he was his first 10 games post-knee surgery. After that he barely turned it over at all. He’s also brilliant in the pocket at protecting the ball with two hands and rarely, if ever, fumbles - which is pretty astounding considering the beating he takes.

I would agree he’s got a bit of a gunslinger mentality and maybe tries to do too much off-script, but that comes with the territory of a great, aggressive QB. 

[dll2000]

On 6/25/2022 at 1:10 PM, Yin-Yang said:

Mac Jones’ biggest criticism is an incredibly overstated component to his game…but is still existent.

Arm strength, that’s what most people love to harp on. And they’d be right in some respects, Mac absolutely does not have the howitzer that we’ve been seeing the top end guys have (Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers), nor does he even have an arm that one would consider strong (Burrow, Dak, Russ). He definitely needs his feet in order to get the ball downfield, very much like Brady and Brees. The really talented QBs can launch the ball running to their left, as they’re being hit, both feet in the air, etc. Mac doesn’t have that. 

That said, he’s not noodle armed either. He’s not Christian Ponder, late staged Drew Brees, post surgery Chad Pennington, or zombie Peyton. Mac gets the ball where it needs to, he just won’t be doing it off his back foot while a defensive end is already a half second in the process of breaking him in half. He’s got better mobility than he gets credit for, but isn’t Patrick Mahomes either. His physically limitations are certainly present, but they’re overstated.

Mac Jones has plus accuracy and placement, but we need to see him take charge and attack a little bit more. Belichick/McDaniels were certainly taking things slow last year, especially early. Is that an indictment on Jones (who most considered a smart guy) or was it the coaches wanting to take their rookie QB slow? Probably a bit of both, but I suspect a bit more of the latter. This 2001 Honda Civic also doesn’t have much of a top gear, either - even with the keys, Mac wasn’t winning any races in that car. All early, grain-of-salt indicators have shown that Mac is more comfortable, in better shape, and has more control in the offense, so we’ll have to see if he takes the next step. 

Tldr; Mac is physically limited but isn’t the noodle arm he’s sometimes made out to be. He needs to take the next step as far as commanding the offense and taking more risks in his second year, given the limited cast and new coaches.

Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers are physical freaks.   Mac Jones does not have to be as overall athletic as them to be good, but it does help.   Brady, P. Manning and Brees got it done as well as it can be done without being freaks. 

 I do think Brees was more athletic than he gets credit for (especially earlier in his career) and Brady albeit slow, has a much stronger arm than he gets credit for.   Manning obviously had adequate arm strength and athleticism to be one of best ever.

To get to that level though he has to command the offense in all senses like Brady, Manning and Brees.   Easier said than done.

You could also make an argument that learning to play in pocket at a high level (if you can) without the ability to run can make you better in some ways and elongate your career.  You don't have the temptation to run.

Edited June 27, 2022 by dll2000
typo

[SmittyBacall]

Joe Burrow - Can hold onto the ball a bit too long at times and can take unnecessary negative plays.

Joe Mixon - Lacks breakaway speed and has a weird tendency to trip over his own feet when he sees major daylight.

Ja’Marr Chase - Makes ridiculous catches followed by dropping balls I could haul in.

Tee Higgins - Probably not a true #1 if given the opportunity, but a dominant #2. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Lamar Jackson - We still don't know if he can consistently play from the pocket at a high level. He showed great progress in 2019, but then regressed heavily in 2020 and seemingly again in 2021 (though context certainly matters). 

[Soko]

59 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers are physical freaks.   Mac Jones does not have to be as overall athletic as them to be good, but it does help.   Brady, P. Manning and Brees got it done as well as it can be done without being freaks. 

 I do think Brees was more athletic than he gets credit for (especially earlier in his career) and Brady albeit slow, has a much stronger arm than he gets credit for.   Manning obviously had adequate arm strength and athleticism to be one of best ever.

To get to that level though he has to command the offense in all senses like Brady, Manning and Brees.   Easier said than done.

You could also make an argument that learning to play in pocket at a high level (if you can) without the ability to run can make you better in some ways and elongate your career.  You don't have the temptation to run.

None of this is wrong. 

You don’t need the arm cannon to get it done. Or the legs. Or the ability to throw it off platform. But it helps. Being able to read the defense, command the offense, make good decisions, and make accurate throws, are all infinitely more important to the QB position than pure running/arm talent. If Mac wins the former, then lacking the latter isn’t so important. But you have to be executing at a really, really high level to make it negligible. Hopefully Mac can progress into that guy. 

The more I think of him, the more I think that he might be a less-WTF-Eli (in terms of physical skill set/play style, obviously he has to prove more to reach that level as a player).

Edited June 27, 2022 by Yin-Yang

[August4th]

3 hours ago, GHARMON9 said:

I thought Devin Bush was a good player his rookie year. What happened?

He came back a mess after his ACL surgery. He was poor at everything last yr

[Blackstar12]

Jonathan Taylor - Already established himself as one of the best RBs in the league.

Micheal Pittman- Had a good season last year over 1k yards and 6tds. Let’s see if he builds off that season.

Leonard - Despite having a hurt ankle last year he probably had his best season and was a turnover machine. Hopefully he stays healthy backbone of the defense.

Nelson- Was a bit injured last year and missed some games. He was still great when he didn’t miss games and hopefully he has a more healthy season.

Edited June 27, 2022 by Blackstar12