Race for the #1 pick

[AZBearsFan]

15 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Im still praying for the situation where we are #2 and Indy is #3. That way we pull off a Mitch trade, Swap our seconds (pick up like 20 spots in the round) plus the Commanders 3rd they have, and next years 3rd. Something like that

But we need 3 other teams to pick up wins for that to happen, with only one guaranteed

Could still have a similar deal (but with more return for us) if we end up 2 and Indy 4 as well. 

[Sugashane]

3 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Could still have a similar deal (but with more return for us) if we end up 2 and Indy 4 as well. 

In a trade with IND I am struggling to figure out what DeForest Buckner would offset. Clearly we would swap ones with them this year and would get a 2024 pick, but which one? Or moving up with a swap?

 

Without him I would want their 2023 1st and 3rd, and 2024 1st, then would haggle down from there at least.

With him take Buckner, their 2023 1st, and swap seconds? Like @StLunatic88 said that jumps up 20ish slots and lets IND get their QB, then still have plenty of draft stock to try and build around him this year and the next draft (plus upens up the $20mil or so owed to Buckner), so IMO that would allow us to poach Buckner. If going from 2 to 4 you guarantee (assuming HOU and IND are taking a QB) yourself either Anderson or Carter, so I'm content with that. You could get more without Buckner as well, but if you strike out on the Payne sweepstakes that is a damn good consolation prize.

 

[Bigbear72]

57 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

In a trade with IND I am struggling to figure out what DeForest Buckner would offset. Clearly we would swap ones with them this year and would get a 2024 pick, but which one? Or moving up with a swap?

 

Without him I would want their 2023 1st and 3rd, and 2024 1st, then would haggle down from there at least.

With him take Buckner, their 2023 1st, and swap seconds? Like @StLunatic88 said that jumps up 20ish slots and lets IND get their QB, then still have plenty of draft stock to try and build around him this year and the next draft (plus upens up the $20mil or so owed to Buckner), so IMO that would allow us to poach Buckner. If going from 2 to 4 you guarantee (assuming HOU and IND are taking a QB) yourself either Anderson or Carter, so I'm content with that. You could get more without Buckner as well, but if you strike out on the Payne sweepstakes that is a damn good consolation prize.

 

Could you imagine a line with Payne, Buckner, Anderson, and whoever the other DE would be? Good lord, I need a cigarette just thinking about it.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

In a trade with IND I am struggling to figure out what DeForest Buckner would offset. Clearly we would swap ones with them this year and would get a 2024 pick, but which one? Or moving up with a swap?

I have been eyeing up Buck for a Mock at some point, and Honestly, I dont think he offsets all that much if he were in a deal for the #2 pick. He will hold more value to Flus than anyone else out there right now, not that he doesnt have any value, but is it as much as replacing the Future 3rd in my scenario? Maybe, might just make that a lower pick (future 5th?) 

The Colts are going to be in quite the Cap predicament even after they get some breathing room from Matty Ice, and while Buck doesnt have any more guaranteed dollars, thats still $20m that a team will have to absorb if traded, Dont think alot of teams will be doing that.

Theres actually a chance that Irsay is about to tear it down for one year (like we just did) to reset the Cap and start rebuilding the team. I say that because theres a chance Buck could just be cut, small one, but its out there.

 

PS- I will also say, I don t think if we did end up with Buckner, that it would have any impact on our interest in Carter

Edited December 22, 2022 by StLunatic88

[Sugashane]

2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I have been eyeing up Buck for a Mock at some point, and Honestly, I dont think he offsets all that much if he were in a deal for the #2 pick. He will hold more value to Flus than anyone else out there right now, not that he doesnt have any value, but is it as much as replacing the Future 3rd in my scenario? Maybe, might just make that a lower pick (future 5th?) 

The Colts are going to be in quite the Cap predicament even after they get some breathing room from Matty Ice, and while Buck doesnt have any more guaranteed dollars, thats still $20m that a team will have to absorb if traded, Dont think alot of teams will be doing that.

Theres actually a chance that Irsay is about to tear it down for one year (like we just did) to reset the Cap and start rebuilding the team. I say that because theres a chance Buck could just be cut, small one, but its out there.

 

PS- I will also say, I don t think if we did end up with Buckner, that it would have any impact on our interest in Carter

No doubt, If we ended up getting a DT in FA, made the trade for Buckner, and Carter was on the board... I'm snagging him. I'll put Buckner at DE fulltime if I have to. If you have a great talent you can put them along the DL. I watched Chris Jones dominate Mike McGlinchey earlier this year and would love to see how they could get moved around.

 

Yeah I looked at Buckner's deal but didn't dig into IND's cap deal. The lack of guaranteed cash was the only thing I focused on, so it is a good point that he might be looked at as a trade or cut piece just because of a potential (and IMO needed) tear down.

[HuskieBear]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:11 PM, AZBearsFan said:

To be fair, the consolation prize of a late, meaningless victory is very likely Jalen Carter or Will Anderson, or still possibly a trade down to someone after Stroud or Will Levis (whichever doesn’t go #2 overall). We’re in a great spot to add an elite talent pretty much no matter what if we go 1-2 or 0-3 over the final 3 games. 

i agree that if we're keeping the pick, 2 to 3 won't matter too much, it'll likely be whoever is still there between anderson or carter. but #2 gives far more leverage in trade value, if someone wants to come up for the #2 QB before someone else (ala wentz). Even more valuable if Lovie gets involved and grabs a JC or WA first and leaves us a bidding war for a QB

[StLunatic88]

5 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Yeah I looked at Buckner's deal but didn't dig into IND's cap deal. The lack of guaranteed cash was the only thing I focused on, so it is a good point that he might be looked at as a trade or cut piece just because of a potential (and IMO needed) tear down.

And honestly, we may be way off. I like Buckner for us, but I dont think he carries nearly the same value that he did 3 years ago, and I also dont think he should be the 2nd highest paid DT (per AAV) after Donald. 

I may be underselling our side of the deal just a tad, but I think he is very gettable. 

I would also hope we sign a new deal with him, hopefully a new 4 year, giving him some new guaranteed dollars, while dropping his AAV (which also includes a 4th  agent year that is unlikely to be seen)

[Sugashane]

55 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

And honestly, we may be way off. I like Buckner for us, but I dont think he carries nearly the same value that he did 3 years ago, and I also dont think he should be the 2nd highest paid DT (per AAV) after Donald. 

I may be underselling our side of the deal just a tad, but I think he is very gettable. 

I would also hope we sign a new deal with him, hopefully a new 4 year, giving him some new guaranteed dollars, while dropping his AAV (which also includes a 4th  agent year that is unlikely to be seen)

Agreed. I was thinking of signing him and giving some guaranteed money up front but having only 2 years with guaranteed cash.

Also, if we don't go nuts in FA CHI can really load up his 2023 cap hit so he doesn't limit them much in years 2-3, and if the wall hits like many at age 30 we can sever ties. That will have a lot of cap available for re-signings later. 

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

i agree that if we're keeping the pick, 2 to 3 won't matter too much, it'll likely be whoever is still there between anderson or carter. but #2 gives far more leverage in trade value, if someone wants to come up for the #2 QB before someone else (ala wentz). Even more valuable if Lovie gets involved and grabs a JC or WA first and leaves us a bidding war for a QB

Fair or not, I don’t think Lovie is gonna be there. 

[AZBearsFan]

Noteworthy. 

[Bigbear72]

59 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Noteworthy. 

Might the Texans steal one? Me likely.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Bigbear72

[beardown3231]

5 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

Might the Texans steal one? Me likely.

And they still play Indy 

[Epyon]

Texans potentially jumping us would be massive...... if we get #1 overall it becomes significantly more likely we either get a haul of draft picks trading down (so someone can get w/e the consensus QB1 is) or (even better) can work some kind of trade to still end up in the top 4 picks and likely snagging one of Anderson or Carter.

Just a dramatically stronger position than sitting at 2, and having the "2nd best" qb in the class to offer teams.... and gives us another team (houston) to potentially trade down with.  Or hell..... force Texans to trade with us to get the #1 pick and qb of their choice, and then trade down from their #2 pick for a doublle dip haul of picks..... not to mention giving us some say in who is getting those QBs  (ie we can deny detroit)

Edited December 23, 2022 by Epyon

[beardown3231]

Jaylon Johnson- another guy who can't stay healthy

[Madmike90]

35 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Jaylon Johnson- another guy who can't stay healthy

Pretty sure if we were trying to get into the playoffs he plays with a broken finger…no point though this season.