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Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

MacReady

By MacReady
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squire12

squire12

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Johnston for sure is to me.  Only player with No. 1 WR skills.  Still a bit of a projection, but much less so than Christian Watson.

I don't see it with Johnston.  maybe I'm wrong, but I think he will struggle in the NFL.  

48 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I really think all these WRs are being slept on a bit.  Trade down a bit and take Addison in the 20s, Take Flowers in the 40s before you take Kincaid.

I can see a trade down for this value for sure.  unfortunately it takes 2 to tango in that process

48 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

 

All the CBs are pretty good problem is that's not a need so maybe you trade down twice.  I think you have to get a bit creative to find value unless you want to take an OT or Mayer or Johnston at 15.  And I'm not all in on Mayer for previous value reasons although I do think he's among the best players in the draft.

 

agreed on the CB's.  I think EDGE is more an option for positional value but that means less impact on the offense for Love in direct help

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Mazrimiv

Mazrimiv

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Just now, NFLGURU said:

Lots of WR/TE talk.  I wouldn't be surprised if Gutes choice is one of the OTs he likes or defense.  

This is exactly what I expect.  I'd be surprised to see WR in RD1.  I'd be shocked to see a RD1 TE.

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TheEagle

TheEagle

Posted
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2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I don't know about that.  Marcedes was always slower than Washington just ran, but he also did 2 more bench reps, and had a vertical 6" higher.  Marcedes was a very good athlete.  It is a lot closer than you think. 

One of my problems with Washington is that I think he played at a higher weight than he measured at the combine. At the higher weight, he did not show the speed he showed at the combine. Instead, he looked like a younger Marcedes. His speed looked closer to mid 4.70s than mid 4.60s. He looked plodding--like he was running in cement. Where will he be at in the NFL? He seems like a player who will have a hard time ever getting to 600 yards receiving in a season in the NFL. That's not worth a premium pick to me.

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TheEagle

TheEagle

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21 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

Lots of WR/TE talk.  I wouldn't be surprised if Gutes choice is one of the OTs he likes or defense.  

It's likely going to be OT or EDGE. Maybe CB if Johnson, Skoronski, Van Ness, and Murphy are off the board.

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Scoremore

Scoremore

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

I think it's OT if one of the top guys are there. If not then Van Ness or Myles Murphy. 

Yep that's exactly what I'm thinking.  Guess it just depends on how the board falls.  This is a great year to rebuild the TE room though.  So a trade back has to be in play in RD 1 depending on how the board falls. 

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incognito_man

incognito_man

Posted
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29 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

It's likely going to be OT or EDGE. Maybe CB if Johnson, Skoronski, Van Ness, and Murphy are off the board.

OT talent falls off a LOT faster than EDGE in this class IMO. I keep getting more and more convinced we're going that direction at 15.

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incognito_man

incognito_man

Posted
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1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

I just cannot get onboard with a TE in round 1, any TE.  It might be the only position just straight up on my "nope" list.  The biggest issue is that while TEs can often be great athletes at scale, they have to run through the same coverage defenders as WRs and RBs.  A guy who runs a 4.6 isn't going to separate from defenders, even if it's impressive for a 6'6" guy.  So now you're drafting a guy who only contributes more than a baseline TE if he's got great route running and contested catch ability, and even then he's unlikely to have much in the way of YAC.  Every target your TE gets is one your more explosive players don't.

There's been exactly 30 TEs that have had even a single season with 800 yards receiving since 2010.  30, in 13 seasons.  Of those 30, only 13 have had more than 1 season of 800 yards receiving, and of those 13, only Kelce managed 6 or more.  In that same time frame, 160 receivers have managed 800 yards receiving.  102 did it more than once and of those, 17 receivers managed 6 800 yard seasons.  If that seems obvious, ask yourself why you'd want to spend a 1st round pick on a position that, statistically speaking, is unlikely to outproduce even a mediocre WR2. 

Now I know the obvious retort here is that "but TEs block too"!  Which is both true and utterly irrelevant.  For one, you're unlikely to have more than one high quality blocker at TE on the roster, which means you sure as hell aren't building a gameplan around them.  Having  to scrap your entire gameplan if a single player who plays in the box gets injured is a non-starter.  For two, there's barely any TEs in the entire league who move the needle as a blocker when it comes to having to defend an offense. 

So what you're left with is a position that in almost every case provides mediocre blocking and underwhelming receiving, with almost no chance for explosive plays when targeted.  Hard pass.

This is where I've been for awhile as well. I think the value of a TE in round 1 is too low. At the same time, it's the most obvious upgradeable roster spot. Class is deep though so there's even more incentive not to use a premium pick there. 

I suspect Gute is doing his due diligence on Mayer because we think there's a decent probability we'd prefer to move down from 15. And if Mayer is still there in the low to mid-20s AND we picked up another day 2 pick, I could see them going that direction.

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packfanfb

packfanfb

Posted
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9 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

This is where I've been for awhile as well. I think the value of a TE in round 1 is too low. At the same time, it's the most obvious upgradeable roster spot. Class is deep though so there's even more incentive not to use a premium pick there. 

I suspect Gute is doing his due diligence on Mayer because we think there's a decent probability we'd prefer to move down from 15. And if Mayer is still there in the low to mid-20s AND we picked up another day 2 pick, I could see them going that direction.

Right. I don't think anyone is really banging the drum for a TE at 15. But if they trade back and like Mayer in the 20s, I would get excited about it.

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R T

R T

Posted
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9 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Right. I don't think anyone is really banging the drum for a TE at 15. But if they trade back and like Mayer in the 20s, I would get excited about it.

I think that is the opposite of the way Gutes thinks. He is much more likely to stay put and take a tier one player at 15 and then package a couple of picks to move up from the second round to get another targeted prospect. 

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squire12

squire12

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15 minutes ago, R T said:

I think that is the opposite of the way Gutes thinks. He is much more likely to stay put and take a tier one player at 15 and then package a couple of picks to move up from the second round to get another targeted prospect. 

If GB has 10 tier 1 players and they are all gone by pick 15 a trade down becomes a realistic option.

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