Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[R T]

As others have mentioned there are many variables involved, but maybe break it down statistically in comparison to all other WR's over the pass 10 season. 

In the past 10 drafts there has been 20 WR's taken in the first 15 picks of the drafts. My quick count has a total of 372 WR's drafted in that timeframe, give or take a few and we will add 28 UDFA's who made rosters to make it 400 total for the sake of easy math. So, to make the selection of JSN worth the 15th overall selection over the course of his first 4 seasons he would need to be in the top 5 percent statistically of all WR's over his rookie contract.  

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, R T said:

As others have mentioned there are many variables involved, but maybe break it down statistically in comparison to all other WR's over the pass 10 season. 

In the past 10 drafts there has been 20 WR's taken in the first 15 picks of the drafts. My quick count has a total of 372 WR's drafted in that timeframe, give or take a few and we will add 28 UDFA's who made rosters to make it 400 total for the sake of easy math. So, to make the selection of JSN worth the 15th overall selection over the course of his first 4 seasons he would need to be in the top 5 percent statistically of all WR's over his rookie contract.  

This is the best way to compare using stats I've heard. Good solution.

[ChaRisMa]

Nick Herbig at ILB day 3.

[beekay414]

After spending some time watching both Mayer and Schoonmaker, you can see why they aren't comparable prospects. One, Mayer was the focal point of the Notre Dame passing attack, a lot of Schoonmaker's stuff was of the safety valve variety. He's literally alone half the time.

Watching the two, it surprised the living hell out of me that Schoonmaker is the listed bigger man despite playing much smaller and looking it. That can be a plus but he's nowhere near as physical as Mayer. Mayer has superior contested catch ability, he's the better traditional route runner and he's much, much harder to bring down in the open field. I don't think I saw Schoonmaker break one tackle.

Yeah, there's a reason one of them is a projected day 1 or early day 2 pick and the other is day 3. I like them both but Mayer, despite not testing as well as Schoonmaker, has significantly more upside.

Edited April 22, 2023 by beekay414

[Zycho32]

Am I the only one who thinks that no matter who we pick at #15, they will not produce an equivalent value statistics-wise for at least the first couple of years of their career?

All of the Wideouts are going to flag in terms of stats, and so will the Tight Ends. The Edge Rushers are going to be part of a rotation until Preston goes away. Nobody feels a Safety will be equal to the spot even though it's the one place on the defense where a drafted guy can actually be slotted as a Day 1 starter. The best chance is maybe drafting someone like Skor or Wright and convert them to Guard, but then there will come endless [BLEEP]ing about how Guards aren't worth a Top 15 pick.

No matter what you do, you're going to wait some time before the player(hopefully) makes a full impact. Until then he's a supporting character in the ensemble, which apparently isn't worth #15.

[smetana34]

1 hour ago, Zycho32 said:

The best chance is maybe drafting someone like Skor or Wright and convert them to Guard, but then there will come endless [BLEEP]ing about how Guards aren't worth a Top 15 pick.

You wouldn't hear complaining from me. If they can be a pro bowl player I don't care what position they play. Get them and move on

[beekay414]

I don't care who we take, it's all about

[Green19]

3 hours ago, Zycho32 said:

Am I the only one who thinks that no matter who we pick at #15, they will not produce an equivalent value statistics-wise for at least the first couple of years of their career?

All of the Wideouts are going to flag in terms of stats, and so will the Tight Ends. The Edge Rushers are going to be part of a rotation until Preston goes away. Nobody feels a Safety will be equal to the spot even though it's the one place on the defense where a drafted guy can actually be slotted as a Day 1 starter. The best chance is maybe drafting someone like Skor or Wright and convert them to Guard, but then there will come endless [BLEEP]ing about how Guards aren't worth a Top 15 pick.

No matter what you do, you're going to wait some time before the player(hopefully) makes a full impact. Until then he's a supporting character in the ensemble, which apparently isn't worth #15.

I would agree if Rodgers was still the QB with this. With love and if like Rodgers says… this offense makes it easy for the QB. With that in mind… a rookie/ a 2nd year man can get manufactured touches if they prove to be a useful weapon.

I could see a Mayer or JSN being a designed outlet Love uses a lot. Heck there is a stat floating out there that Deguara’s usage rate goes exponentially up with Love… and it’s telling even in small sampling.

This offense will be different completely now… at least what the reads are, who gets looked at, usage of weapons, etc.

[Brit Pack]

I hate long posts...but here we are...Apologies!

The notion of value with regards to player acquisition in the draft I find is a meaningless train of thought.

The concept of ‘value’ only has value in the context of the days of the draft itself, after the draft it virtually carries no weight whatsoever, as it all then becomes a question of whether the player selected can perform and to what level what round he was drafted in has no bearing on that.

Take a look at the 2019 draft, with the 4^th pick Raiders select Clelin Ferrell and later on with the 106 pick they also select another DE in Maxx Crosby. One turns out to be stud the other a dud. When they selected Crosby did they know he would outperform Ferrell? No chance. So should they have taken Crosby at 4 instead? Of course not, it makes no sense., Crosby was never rated as a 1^st rounder, while Ferrell certainly was (maybe not at 4). In the end you will pretty much always find a player later in the draft that will give you more production than a player playing in the same position selected early on. The question is are you the team lucky enough to select them!!!

Take for example from the 2019 draft, Terry McLaurin is taken one pick after the great Jace Sternberger. Terry is the 11^th receiver selected in the 2019 draft. Receivers selected ahead of him:
1^st Round: Marquise Brown, N’Keal Harry
2^nd Round: Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, DK Metcalff,
3^rd Round: Diontae Johnson, Jalen Hurd

Did the Niners waste the opportunity cost of investing in a better player instead of Deebo at pick 36 and waiting for McLaurin who went at pick 76? Or would they even have been better off taking Terry at pick 36 as he has had better production than Deebo? Deebo has put up 3230 receiving yards and 782 rushing. Terry has 4281 yards receiving and 71 rushing. Who knows, but I don’t think it matters as the Niners got a player who has contributed well to their team, whether Deebo was selected at pick 25 (where Brown was taken) or pick 247 (where the last WR was taken) it doesn’t matter, they ended up with a very good player regardless of the value or position selected in the draft.

Same goes for JSN. Will there be a slot WR that does better than him later in the draft? Quite probably. If we pass on JSN will we be that team that selects that slot WR that is better than JSN? Maybe. What if we take JSN in the 1^st and Tank Dell in the 4^th, and Dell turns out to be a stud and JSN doesn’t, does it matter? Nope. We got a stud. Could we have gotten a better player instead of JSN then at 15? Maybe. Maybe the guy we select instead of JSN stinks also. There are just too many variables at play.

For a player to be successful ultimately requires so many things to align. Would we be talking about Brett Favre as HOF if he isn’t traded to Green Bay and he has Holmgrem as a coach? Would Aaron Rodgers be a HOF if he doesn’t sit for three years behind Brett? Therefore all the factors below have to align as well:
1) Opportunity – does the player get the game snaps to show off
2) Coaching – does the coaching suit the player, is there a coach that jells with the player and unlocks his potential
3) Scheme – does the scheme play to the strengths of the player
4) Injury – does the player avoid injury so they can stay on the field
5) Money – how does money affect the player and his motivation
6) Character – does the player have a good character, does he have a past, can he move away from that etc

The only aspect where I feel draft value has value is early on in a player's career, as he will be given more opportunities to prove his draft value. Apart from that too many variables play a role and talent is to be found from the first pick to the last, and you don’t know if the pick that you made will be any good or not, because if you did know you might have made that pick earlier.

Ultimately for me, regardless of where a player is picked, do you manage to get two quality starters out of a draft is the key, where they were selected is pretty meaningless.

[Scoremore]

8 hours ago, Zycho32 said:

Am I the only one who thinks that no matter who we pick at #15, they will not produce an equivalent value statistics-wise for at least the first couple of years of their career?

All of the Wideouts are going to flag in terms of stats, and so will the Tight Ends. The Edge Rushers are going to be part of a rotation until Preston goes away. Nobody feels a Safety will be equal to the spot even though it's the one place on the defense where a drafted guy can actually be slotted as a Day 1 starter. The best chance is maybe drafting someone like Skor or Wright and convert them to Guard, but then there will come endless [BLEEP]ing about how Guards aren't worth a Top 15 pick.

No matter what you do, you're going to wait some time before the player(hopefully) makes a full impact. Until then he's a supporting character in the ensemble, which apparently isn't worth #15.

2 guys in this draft will offer an immediate impact.  Branch and Wright.  Both would be day 1 starters.  You could maybe put Mayer or Washington in the mix as well but TE's do take some time to develop.  Get the gist of what you are saying and yes it's true.  Rooks often fail to make an impact right away.  

[Chili]

I just discovered a talented TE prospect. Kemari Averett

What's the story with him and why is he not being talked about?

[R T]

6 minutes ago, Chili said:

I just discovered a talented TE prospect. Kemari Averett

What's the story with him and why is he not being talked about?

He will have a hard time even getting a UDFA look with his arrest history.

 

Kemari Averett, who was set to stand trial Wednesday after he was accused of holding a gun to his girlfriend's head and threatening to kill her, has instead pleaded guilty to a contempt charge.

Prosecutors agreed Wednesday to dismiss charges of second-degree wanton endangerment and fourth-degree assault. Averett faces one charge of contempt of court after he admitted to unlawfully contacting the woman.

[Chili]

I just did a bit of digging, its even worse than that. in a separate incident he was accused of rape which the University of Louisville suspended him for two years. He has a rap sheet going all the way back to 2014. Despite all this it looks like he has managed to avoid jail.

He's now about 25 and coming off two productive years at Bethune–Cookman. He's 6'5" and 260lbs and moves extremely well, he is a very natural hands catcher and boxes out defenders with ease. Will almost certainly go undrafted though.

[packfanfb]

49 minutes ago, R T said:

He will have a hard time even getting a UDFA look with his arrest history.

 

Kemari Averett, who was set to stand trial Wednesday after he was accused of holding a gun to his girlfriend's head and threatening to kill her, has instead pleaded guilty to a contempt charge.

Prosecutors agreed Wednesday to dismiss charges of second-degree wanton endangerment and fourth-degree assault. Averett faces one charge of contempt of court after he admitted to unlawfully contacting the woman.

Sounds like a Chief or Brown 2nd rounder.

[Arthur Penske]

8 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Sounds like a Chief or Brown 2nd rounder.

Eh Vikings might take a look too.