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Rodgers to the Jets Trade Discussion


pgwingman

2023 Rodgers  

100 members have voted

  1. 1. Which team gives Rodgers the best shot in 2023?

    • Packers
      21
    • Somewhere else
      80


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2 hours ago, Old Guy said:

I don't think there was any there, there. I think he had helped the kid out when they came to camp Wilson's rookie year and was answering a question. 

 

Me either.  One comment I found particularly interesting is that getting humbled is good.  Sounds like Wilson needed a slice of humble pie.  Also that he told him to go home kid and clear his mind.  Guess the kid was staying late working too hard.  Also said he's talented.  Dunno mental aspect of playing the QB position is really important.  Whether or not this kid has it don't know.  Have to lead the team and not rub your teamates the wrong way.  Sounds like that's what he did in NY. 

Can't remember who said it but they are probably right.  How often do reclamation projects ever turn out?  Favre was about the only one I know of.  Maybe you could put Young and Brees in that category too.  But it's pretty rare that a guy busts out in one place and they turns it around in another.  What the hell Jets can throw him in the trade  package that way we don't have to burn a pick on another QB. 

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5 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I am not following what you are saying here.  

this is correct.  If you keep bahktiari on his current contract structure for

  • 2023 cap hit is $28.8M
  • 2024 cap hit is $33.1M 
  • so a total of $61.9M

If you restructure his contract it becomes

  • 2023 cap hit is $24.9M
  • 2024 cap hit is $37.0M 
  • so a total of $61.9

the total money spent doesn't change over the 2 years.  if you cut him after 2023 (before the 2024 season) it is a bigger dead cap hit but only by the same amount of money that you saved in doing the restructure

 

again, the same process for Bahktiari also applies

GB needs to get under the cap by some restructures/trades/cut of players.  if you have a plan to make this happen, it would be a good time to put that forth

I guess what i'm trying to say is that there is going to dead cap charges that apply this year and next year as I'm certain that neither Bahktiari and Jones see the end of their current deals.

As it stands the dead cap charges for these 2 plus Rodgers are:

  • Rodgers - 40.3m
  • Bahktiari - 11.565m
  • Jones - 5.539m

To accomodate the 40.3m for Rodgers in 2023, some of the money owed to Bahktiari and Jones for this year is going have to be paid as bonuses and there will increase the cap hits for both them to the point where it wouldnt be feasible to keep them on the roster and resulting on dead cap charges in 2024 for both.

For instance, if you paid Bahktiari's 10.8m in non prorated bonuses as a signing bonus, 5.4 of that would be added to his 2024 cap number and increase his dead cap charge (should he be cut as i expect) from 11.565m to 16.965m.

With regards to Jones, he has 1 year + 2 void years left on his deal.  If you pay his 7.9m in non prorated bonuses as a signing bonus, 1.975 of that would be added to each of the years left on his deal and increase his dead cap charge (should he be cut as i expect) from 5.539m to 11.464m.

So all of a sudden you are going from a combined 17.104m of dead cap for these 2 in 2024 to 28.429.

Now if you trade Rodgers post June 1, you can split his 40.3m over 2 years. This reduces the need to restructure the contacts of Bahktiari and Jones and gives you greater flexibility in the decision around their contracts in 2024.

It all comes down to how the Packers want to make it all work over the next 2 years.

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9 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

I guess what i'm trying to say is that there is going to dead cap charges that apply this year and next year as I'm certain that neither Bahktiari and Jones see the end of their current deals.

As it stands the dead cap charges for these 2 plus Rodgers are:

  • Rodgers - 40.3m
  • Bahktiari - 11.565m
  • Jones - 5.539m

To accomodate the 40.3m for Rodgers in 2023, some of the money owed to Bahktiari and Jones for this year is going have to be paid as bonuses and there will increase the cap hits for both them to the point where it wouldnt be feasible to keep them on the roster and resulting on dead cap charges in 2024 for both.

For instance, if you paid Bahktiari's 10.8m in non prorated bonuses as a signing bonus, 5.4 of that would be added to his 2024 cap number and increase his dead cap charge (should he be cut as i expect) from 11.565m to 16.965m.

With regards to Jones, he has 1 year + 2 void years left on his deal.  If you pay his 7.9m in non prorated bonuses as a signing bonus, 1.975 of that would be added to each of the years left on his deal and increase his dead cap charge (should he be cut as i expect) from 5.539m to 11.464m.

So all of a sudden you are going from a combined 17.104m of dead cap for these 2 in 2024 to 28.429.

Now if you trade Rodgers post June 1, you can split his 40.3m over 2 years. This reduces the need to restructure the contacts of Bahktiari and Jones and gives you greater flexibility in the decision around their contracts in 2024.

It all comes down to how the Packers want to make it all work over the next 2 years.

The acquiring team will probably want Aaron Rodgers well before June 1.  If I'm the Packers I want at least one draft pick in 2023.  

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5 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

I guess what i'm trying to say is that there is going to dead cap charges that apply this year and next year as I'm certain that neither Bahktiari and Jones see the end of their current deals.

As it stands the dead cap charges for these 2 plus Rodgers are:

  • Rodgers - 40.3m
  • Bahktiari - 11.565m
  • Jones - 5.539m

are you cutting Jones and Bahktiar this year?

5 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

To accomodate the 40.3m for Rodgers in 2023, some of the money owed to Bahktiari and Jones for this year is going have to be paid as bonuses and there will increase the cap hits for both them to the point where it wouldnt be feasible to keep them on the roster and resulting on dead cap charges in 2024 for both.

For instance, if you paid Bahktiari's 10.8m in non prorated bonuses as a signing bonus, 5.4 of that would be added to his 2024 cap number and increase his dead cap charge (should he be cut as i expect) from 11.565m to 16.965m.

With regards to Jones, he has 1 year + 2 void years left on his deal.  If you pay his 7.9m in non prorated bonuses as a signing bonus, 1.975 of that would be added to each of the years left on his deal and increase his dead cap charge (should he be cut as i expect) from 5.539m to 11.464m.

So all of a sudden you are going from a combined 17.104m of dead cap for these 2 in 2024 to 28.429.

Now if you trade Rodgers post June 1, you can split his 40.3m over 2 years. This reduces the need to restructure the contacts of Bahktiari and Jones and gives you greater flexibility in the decision around their contracts in 2024.

It all comes down to how the Packers want to make it all work over the next 2 years.

let's just talk about 1 player in this situation to keep the numbers easier to follow.  

  • if GB does NOT restructure Bahktiari (in a scenario that Rodgers is traded after June 1)
    • Bahktiari cap charges
      • on roster in 2023... cap charge = $28.9M
      • on roster in 2024 ... cap charge = $33.1M (total over the 2 years $62.0M)
    • bahktiari cap charges
      • on roster in 2023... cap charge = $28.9M
      • NOT on roster in 2024 ... cap charge = $11.56M (total over the 2 years $40.46M)
  •  If GB does restructure Bahktiari ($7.9M is split over 2023 and 2024)
    • Bahktiari cap charges
      • on roster in 2023... cap charge = $24.95M (28.9 - 3.95)
      • NOT on roster in 2024 ... cap charge = $15.51M (11.56 = 3.95....total over the 2 years $40.46M)

So the net cap charge in Bahktiari being off the roster after the 2023 season (prior to 2024) is the same whether he is restructured or not.

The process for Jones plays out in a similar manner.  

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20 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

Now if you trade Rodgers post June 1, you can split his 40.3m over 2 years. This reduces the need to restructure the contacts of Bahktiari and Jones and gives you greater flexibility in the decision around their contracts in 2024.

if you look at the NFL cap as a collective when you use the money doesn't matter that significantly.

lets assume the cap that overthecap is listing as the projections for 2023 and 2024 are accurate

  • 2023 = $225M
  • 2024 = $256M
  • sum total of $481M

Rodgers having a dead cap of 40.3M in 2023 or split over 2023 and 2024 still leaves the same amount of cap space available for GB to use collectively over those 2 years after subtracting the Rodgers dead cap from a trade.  

  • 2023:   225 - 40.3 = 184.7
  • 2024:  256
  • sum total = 440.7

OR

  • 2023:   225 - 15.8 = 209.2
  • 2024:  256 - 24.5 = 231.5
  • sum total = 440.7

 

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Jets fan here. Was just wondering if a trade for Rodgers were to happen……

What’s the difference for you guys and a trade partner between a pre June 1st trade or post June 1st trade.

I’ve had several people give info on this and they seem to contradict.

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1 minute ago, Bobby816 said:

Jets fan here. Was just wondering if a trade for Rodgers were to happen……

What’s the difference for you guys and a trade partner between a pre June 1st trade or post June 1st trade.

I’ve had several people give info on this and they seem to contradict.

Assuming a trade of Rodgers results in $40.3M in dead cap for GB (rounded numbers for easier discussion)

  • pre June 1st results in the full $40.3M in dead cap for GB in 2023
    • allows 2023 draft picks to be part of the deal
  • post June 1st results in a split of the $40.3M in dead cap
    • 2023 = $15.8M  and 2024 = $24.5M
    • no draft picks for 2023

Pre June 1st requires a few more player moves (restructures/trades/cuts) to create the added cap space needed.

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20 minutes ago, squire12 said:

if you look at the NFL cap as a collective when you use the money doesn't matter that significantly.

lets assume the cap that overthecap is listing as the projections for 2023 and 2024 are accurate

  • 2023 = $225M
  • 2024 = $256M
  • sum total of $481M

Rodgers having a dead cap of 40.3M in 2023 or split over 2023 and 2024 still leaves the same amount of cap space available for GB to use collectively over those 2 years after subtracting the Rodgers dead cap from a trade.  

  • 2023:   225 - 40.3 = 184.7
  • 2024:  256
  • sum total = 440.7

OR

  • 2023:   225 - 15.8 = 209.2
  • 2024:  256 - 24.5 = 231.5
  • sum total = 440.7

 

I totally get what you are saying and agree there is two ways to make it work and it all works itself out in the end.

My main point is that we have to push money back this year to get under the cap but that it should be done as a last resort so that it doesn't keep happening next year and the year after, not just so we can trade our QB and get draft picks which lets be honest wont contribute much in year 1 anyway.

 

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5 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

I totally get what you are saying and agree there is two ways to make it work and it all works itself out in the end.

My main point is that we have to push money back this year to get under the cap but that it should be done as a last resort so that it doesn't keep happening next year and the year after, not just so we can trade our QB and get draft picks which lets be honest wont contribute much in year 1 anyway.

 

pushing cap out into future years is not the end of the world if you are not adding more $$ into the contract.  

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7 minutes ago, squire12 said:

pushing cap out into future years is not the end of the world if you are not adding more $$ into the contract.  

The problem is pushing money back makes you make a call on a player because of cap hits rather than play.

For example you probably keep Bahktiari on the roster for 2023 and 2024 if his caps hits stay at 28.8m and 33m. But if you restructure money and those cap hits become 24m and 38m, he probably gets cut in 2024.

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7 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

The problem is pushing money back makes you make a call on a player because of cap hits rather than play.

For example you probably keep Bahktiari on the roster for 2023 and 2024 if his caps hits stay at 28.8m and 33m. But if you restructure money and those cap hits become 24m and 38m, he probably gets cut in 2024.

again, you are looking at the singular years vs the collective.  the money spend is the same either way

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4 minutes ago, squire12 said:

again, you are looking at the singular years vs the collective.  the money spend is the same either way

Yes but personnel decisions are often made based on cap hits for that year vs production. 

Plenty of players have been cut in the past because the GM doesn't see the value of keeping the player taking up heaps of cap space when their production might not be the same.

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Aaron’s cap hit doesn’t matter if we trade him. It’s three years before we’re in position to win a Super Bowl anyway.

Get the best value for him and eat the cap hit.

Extend Love before he starts a single game. Four years, estimated 10% of the cap.

 

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3 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

Yes but personnel decisions are often made based on cap hits for that year vs production. 

Plenty of players have been cut in the past because the GM doesn't see the value of keeping the player taking up heaps of cap space when their production might not be the same.

But you do see how your suggested strategy gives us an inevitably worse return on draft picks and less future flexibility, right?

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