Week 18 Gameday Thread (Win And In Edition) - Green Bay Packers (8-8-0) vs. Detroit Lions (8-8-0)

[Mr. Fussnputz]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Amos does the exact same thing on the 4th and 2 to decide the game. That's coaching. A coach who preaches playing soft to defend deep over attacking an offense. It's guarantee to get 2-4 yards passing vs this defense. Barry welcomes it. 

Thanks for answering my question to MrBobGray!

[Packerraymond]

Just got through the tape, offense was back to it's midseason form. Moving the ball quite well from 1 to 30 and then continually finding a way to make a mistake to kill their drive. 

Drive 1: Myers and Jenkins make Isaiah Buggs look like Aaron Donald from 1st and goal on the 5, then on 3rd and goal from the 4, Matt dials up an iso dud of a play. Nowhere for Aaron to go with it.

Drive 2: Yosh and Myers can't clean up the DT's on 3rd and 1, mess up the timing of the run and the DE gets the stop. 4th and 1, I'm just not sure what the play design was here. Don't mind end around to Laz, no one expects that on 4th and 1, but Bakh does absolutely nothing on the play and no one is assigned to either ILB. Even Watson is getting stuffed there. Poor design.

Drive 3: First drive the Lions legit stop and we don't shoot ourselves. Rodgers might have had Lazard on a slant before the Hutch sack, but it's hard to say what his view would've been with defenders crashing down.

Drive 4: Dillon kills an easy 1st down with his drop and stalls the drive.  

Drive 5: Jones kills what could've been a dagger 16-3 halftime lead with his fumble. 

Drive 6: First drive I put any blame on Aaron at all, his first half was pretty flawless. He has Christian Watson 1-1 with Derrick Barnes but gets baited into throwing to Jones (which is almost picked by Joseph). Then he throws a dud to Doubs on an easy 1st down slant. Crosby misses FG.

Drive 7: Beautiful drive, TD to Lazard.

Drive 8: Doubs drops an absolute dime that puts us in FG range with 14 mins left up 16-13.

Drive 9: Rodgers misses a back shoulder to Laz, Runyan misses a stunt on 2nd down, Cobb and Laz both come open for 10 yard gains and move the chains, 3rd down, Dillon misses his blitz pickup as Laz comes wide open for 15+, Rodgers makes the right call at the time he gets hit to throw to Watson, but just tosses up a total dud.

Overall: Watson is the only guy without a blemish on the report card. Rodgers played well enough to win until the last drive, he was a good game manager, but not clutch. Jones can't have that fumble and Doubs looked like week 1 Watson out there. OL was brutal in the run game, vs a team Carolina steamrolled with a mediocre OL and backs and they were only marginally better in pass pro. I'd say 60% stupid mistakes, 20 % OL, 15% Rodgers, 5% WR's for the loss blame. 

[HokieHigh]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

 

Drive 2: Yosh and Myers can't clean up the DT's on 3rd and 1, mess up the timing of the run and the DE gets the stop. 4th and 1, I'm just not sure what the play design was here. Don't mind end around to Laz, no one expects that on 4th and 1, but Bakh does absolutely nothing on the play and no one is assigned to either ILB. Even Watson is getting stuffed there. Poor design.

 

lack of QB sneak on this is so weak

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Just got through the tape, offense was back to it's midseason form. Moving the ball quite well from 1 to 30 and then continually finding a way to make a mistake to kill their drive. 

Drive 1: Myers and Jenkins make Isaiah Buggs look like Aaron Donald from 1st and goal on the 5, then on 3rd and goal from the 4, Matt dials up an iso dud of a play. Nowhere for Aaron to go with it.

Drive 2: Yosh and Myers can't clean up the DT's on 3rd and 1, mess up the timing of the run and the DE gets the stop. 4th and 1, I'm just not sure what the play design was here. Don't mind end around to Laz, no one expects that on 4th and 1, but Bakh does absolutely nothing on the play and no one is assigned to either ILB. Even Watson is getting stuffed there. Poor design.

Drive 3: First drive the Lions legit stop and we don't shoot ourselves. Rodgers might have had Lazard on a slant before the Hutch sack, but it's hard to say what his view would've been with defenders crashing down.

Drive 4: Dillon kills an easy 1st down with his drop and stalls the drive.  

Drive 5: Jones kills what could've been a dagger 16-3 halftime lead with his fumble. 

Drive 6: First drive I put any blame on Aaron at all, his first half was pretty flawless. He has Christian Watson 1-1 with Derrick Barnes but gets baited into throwing to Jones (which is almost picked by Joseph). Then he throws a dud to Doubs on an easy 1st down slant. Crosby misses FG.

Drive 7: Beautiful drive, TD to Lazard.

Drive 8: Doubs drops an absolute dime that puts us in FG range with 14 mins left up 16-13.

Drive 9: Rodgers misses a back shoulder to Laz, Runyan misses a stunt on 2nd down, Cobb and Laz both come open for 10 yard gains and move the chains, 3rd down, Dillon misses his blitz pickup as Laz comes wide open for 15+, Rodgers makes the right call at the time he gets hit to throw to Watson, but just tosses up a total dud.

Overall: Watson is the only guy without a blemish on the report card. Rodgers played well enough to win until the last drive, he was a good game manager, but not clutch. Jones can't have that fumble and Doubs looked like week 1 Watson out there. OL was brutal in the run game, vs a team Carolina steamrolled with a mediocre OL and backs and they were only marginally better in pass pro. I'd say 60% stupid mistakes, 20 % OL, 15% Rodgers, 5% WR's for the loss blame. 

We just made way too many dumb mistakes. Two turnovers, 2 personal fouls on defense, 4 drops, missed blocking assignments, terrible RZ offense.

It's hard to defend the entire coaching staff this season. Just a mess and it needn't have been.

[Jaire_Island]

Matt Lafluer has to remember this is a week to week league and should not take any opponent for granted.

When we played tough teams this year, we played a lot better than the weak teams. Its all preparation and I remember Matt Lafluer used to stresses about this alot in his 1st year of coaching. 
 

In short, this season loss is on Matt L. 
 

No doubts in that. 

[Packerraymond]

27 minutes ago, Jaire_Island said:

Matt Lafluer has to remember this is a week to week league and should not take any opponent for granted.

When we played tough teams this year, we played a lot better than the weak teams. Its all preparation and I remember Matt Lafluer used to stresses about this alot in his 1st year of coaching. 
 

In short, this season loss is on Matt L. 
 

No doubts in that. 

We played two "weak" teams this year, the Rams and Bears. We went 3-0. 

[vegas492]

19 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

That's my point though, it shouldn't have been a gimme.  The point of off-coverage isn't to maintain a huge buffer so you don't get beat deep, it's to give your defenders proper angles to throwing lanes.  Against press coverage, the ball just has to get past the defender's reach and you're good.  There's no thought process there, because there's only one place the defender is going to be (trail position).  Against off coverage, the QB has to judge the CB and determine if they can get to the ball in time depending on the throw and the angle the CB has to it.  They may also lose sight of the defender in the pocket, and be throwing blind which can scare QBs into holding it longer than they should.  But all that is only true if the defender is close enough to have leverage; the problem here is Jaire is so far off the ball and his hips are open to the inside that there's no decision to be made for Goff.  As soon as he gets the ball he knows exactly where he's going to throw it.  Not just to who, but exactly the spot in space-time he's going to put the ball.  Jaire played the coverage such that it was physically impossible for him to break up a pass at the marker for no reason.  There's no deep threat, he's not being held in coverage by two guys entering his zone.  I mean hell, why are his damn hips turned away from the boundary when there's two other guys in zone right next to him?  Who really knows, but I'd bet money he got cute trying to bait Goff to throw that exact ball without realizing how bad his spacing was for actually springing the trap. 

The point is that this is the same way we've run zone for what seems like forever.  What we saw on the last play was nothing new.

And personally, I'd still rather die playing man via a rub route that doesn't get called for PI than sit in our zone.

Or any zone.  

Throw as much verbiage as you want at what should have happened in a zone, but I watch enough football and have played enough football to know that a zone in that call is going to get beat and get beaten quickly for that first down.

Forget angles on that down and distance.  The QB is looking for the shortest throw he has to make.  That will be the seams/slots.  There's no real angle to that ball on that short route. 

Now...if JA was being cute?  I don't know.  Could be.  Had we had half a brain, we would have had him be cute to cue the QB to that read right away, and then not rushed the DL and had him just jump to bat the ball down, if we guessed correctly as to which receiver was getting the ball.

But I don't think we did any of that.  I think we went more or less to a base defense for that down and distance and went brain dead.

And it isn't like the other routes were covered.  I thought all receivers were open and open fast.  Then again, I haven't had the stomach to re-watch that play to know for sure.

[MrBobGray]

8 hours ago, vegas492 said:

The point is that this is the same way we've run zone for what seems like forever.  What we saw on the last play was nothing new.

And personally, I'd still rather die playing man via a rub route that doesn't get called for PI than sit in our zone.

Or any zone.  

Throw as much verbiage as you want at what should have happened in a zone, but I watch enough football and have played enough football to know that a zone in that call is going to get beat and get beaten quickly for that first down.

Forget angles on that down and distance.  The QB is looking for the shortest throw he has to make.  That will be the seams/slots.  There's no real angle to that ball on that short route. 

Now...if JA was being cute?  I don't know.  Could be.  Had we had half a brain, we would have had him be cute to cue the QB to that read right away, and then not rushed the DL and had him just jump to bat the ball down, if we guessed correctly as to which receiver was getting the ball.

But I don't think we did any of that.  I think we went more or less to a base defense for that down and distance and went brain dead.

And it isn't like the other routes were covered.  I thought all receivers were open and open fast.  Then again, I haven't had the stomach to re-watch that play to know for sure.

I mean it's not just not being called for PI; it's that man has a lot of weaknesses itself.  There's a reason you see so much zone these days.  I mean hell, the play they ran actually is a man beater: boundary receiver motions in directly behind the slot and they run what I'm assuming is a modified stick concept.  The odds of one of those DBs losing his man for a split second on that are not low, and that's all it takes.  If you're playing man on flat route, it doesn't change a thing for Goff unless you get a real strong press on Chark, and you can do that in zone too; either way that ball is going low and outside.  And even if you do manage tight coverage on him, Raymond is running the same thing a beat slower with the added bonus of being able to run a hook route instead if Amos is over-eager going outside.

Whether it's coaching or not, this team just isn't good at 3 high.  Zone coverage requires players who see things similarly and have the freedom to play their assignment to what they see.  Jaire needs to see both receivers are flooding Amos's zone and realize the flat is going to be uncovered because Amos has to play in hook -> flat and there's still a receiver there.  Walker is a stud athlete but if Amos runs with Chark to the flat, there is zero chance in the world of him getting in coverage on 11.  Jaire should be creeping up at the snap anyway because it's 4th and 2; it's fine to play off coverage, but the point of off coverage here should be to allow significant aggressiveness.  If you're 7 yards off the ball, even if you bite hard on the out route you still have some ability to get back into position in deep coverage.  If Jaire is firing at soon as he sees them run the stems for a stick concept at Amos (one cuts hard to the flat, one runs vertical right at Amos) he gets there right when the ball does.  The problem is he's still got his hips turned in and his weight back when Raymond breaks, and he ends up nowhere close. 

Thing is, even if it's coaching, it's not not on Jaire as well.  Dude is an All-Pro CB; I don't care what the coaching is, if you see them setting up to flood the short zone you have to be moving up in support.  You can explain to the coaches later why they're stupid if they give you **** for it.  With the playoffs on the line, no way doing things the coach's way comes before doing things the right way if you have the cachet 23 does.  Alexander hasn't exactly shone in the deep 3rd role this season though, so I agree it's a bad look to run it with the season on the line.

[Striker]

Never even really thought of this play until I saw Nagler's exchange with Kurt Warner earlier, but a good breakdown of something that was not a mistake:

 

[mikemike778]

On 1/10/2023 at 4:53 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

Ridiculous

Rodgers was absolutely a huge part of the problem. Homeboy kept trying to give the Lions the ball. 

This sentence just demonstrates how ****ed up the mindset of our fanbase is. Every supposition starts out with the idea that the QB can't be a net negative. 

I said multiple times that it was a collective failure by the offense. Rodgers is a key part of the offense and is clearly part of that failure. Maybe think before typing rubbish.

Its just lazy and ignorant of people to just put it on Rodgers.  There was a serious failure from pretty much every area of the offense at the worst possible time. Rodgers failed at critical times but reality is that if your catchers can't catch, your running back can't keep hold of the ball and your line is outmatched then you are  in serious trouble regardless of your QB.

For whatever reason, the offense didn't work this year. Maybe its just a crap offense full stop and has needed MVP QB play to bail them out. When you take that out and replace it with a good-ish QB probably somewhere in the top 15 which is what we have been left with this year - maybe there's not much left.

 

[vegas492]

18 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

I said multiple times that it was a collective failure by the offense. Rodgers is a key part of the offense and is clearly part of that failure. Maybe think before typing rubbish.

Its just lazy and ignorant of people to just put it on Rodgers.  There was a serious failure from pretty much every area of the offense at the worst possible time. Rodgers failed at critical times but reality is that if your catchers can't catch, your running back can't keep hold of the ball and your line is outmatched then you are  in serious trouble regardless of your QB.

For whatever reason, the offense didn't work this year. Maybe its just a crap offense full stop and has needed MVP QB play to bail them out. When you take that out and replace it with a good-ish QB probably somewhere in the top 15 which is what we have been left with this year - maybe there's not much left.

 

I don't disagree much with what you say.

But when you pay your QB that much, you expect more.

And again...other elite Qb's have days when fumbles happen or the o-line isn't perfect.  And they still win.

With how much we pay Rodgers, he too should be able to overcome these things.  But he hasn't.  Repeatedly.

[Packerraymond]

14 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I don't disagree much with what you say.

But when you pay your QB that much, you expect more.

And again...other elite Qb's have days when fumbles happen or the o-line isn't perfect.  And they still win.

With how much we pay Rodgers, he too should be able to overcome these things.  But he hasn't.  Repeatedly.

Sure, but Rodgers played quite well for the first 3 Qs, if the OL, WRs and RBs played as well as Aaron did in the first half, we'd have went into the locker room up 21-3. That's a whole different ball game.

You can blame him for playing like **** with the season on the line in the 4th, but at least give him the credit that it was others mistakes that he was in that situation.

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Sure, but Rodgers played quite well for the first 3 Qs, if the OL, WRs and RBs played as well as Aaron did in the first half, we'd have went into the locker room up 21-3. That's a whole different ball game.

You can blame him for playing like **** with the season on the line in the 4th, but at least give him the credit that it was others mistakes that he was in that situation.

Did he play "quite well" relative to his regular season, or other $45mil QBs though? 

I suspect if he had played up to his contract we'd have won regardless of everyone else's mistakes.

[Packerraymond]

4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Did he play "quite well" relative to his regular season, or other $45mil QBs though? 

I suspect if he had played up to his contract we'd have won regardless of everyone else's mistakes.

I charted him for 2 bad plays through 3 Q's, the bad slant pass to Doubs and the throw inside the 10 to Jones that should've been picked. Does that equal his contract? I'm not sure, but I disagree with your second paragraph entirely. Football is the ultimate 11 on 11 sport. Something like Jones' fumble shows that, you keep having players miss blocks or drop passes what is a QB supposed to do to remedy that? Maybe a Lamar or Fields type QB can just run to a win, but not a pocket passer. QBs are still complimentary to the rest of the team, they aren't pitcher or goalies that can win a game in their own.

 

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

I charted him for 2 bad plays through 3 Q's, the bad slant pass to Doubs and the throw inside the 10 to Jones that should've been picked. Does that equal his contract? I'm not sure, but I disagree with your second paragraph entirely. Football is the ultimate 11 on 11 sport. Something like Jones' fumble shows that, you keep having players miss blocks or drop passes what is a QB supposed to do to remedy that? Maybe a Lamar or Fields type QB can just run to a win, but not a pocket passer. QBs are still complimentary to the rest of the team, they aren't pitcher or goalies that can win a game in their own.

 

Not sure how anyone could possibly disagree with the observation that if Rodgers had played like an MVP (instead of an 83.1 passer rating) we would have won a game we ended up losing by only 4 points.