Broncofan Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 23 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said: So few people understand that betting lines are a reflection of bettor patterns; not of secret Vegas guys getting the inside scoops on player health. That’s true except when Vegas takes a stand against line movement. Then they are backing their models / insider info. It only happens about 10 percent of the time but it deserves mention. Having said that it’s not the case so far - action is heavily on the Bengals. The other myth - public is wrong most of the time. The public lines aren’t always wrong, it’s more of a 50-50 split. But because heavily backed teams can get >70% of the action in extreme cases - 50-50 or even 55-45 means the books clean up. But it’s also why if you’re with the public, better to get in early than late - better spreads / ML odds negates a lot of the negative CLV than betting just before game time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAA1980 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) Some people in the media are now trying to spin the injury as a positive saying Mahomes now won’t play hero ball he’ll kill the Bengals with short throws from the pocket.. The Bengals D coordinator is very good im sure if he sees Mahomes can’t throw deep and is trying to pick them apart with short passes he’ll do what it takes to stop the short passes and make him throw deep.. I don’t expect Mahomes to play awful I think he’s amazing and we’ll find ways to make some plays but is compromised enough to where he’ll make enough mistakes and be inaccurate enough at times against a good defense and great coordinator to where I favor the Bengals overall. Edited January 24, 2023 by AAA1980 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The Bengals approach to playing Mahomes has been to rush 3 and drop 8. In order to keep him from doing off script freestyle playmaking. KC should have much more in their playbook to attack that anyway, but especially with Mahomes injured. I'm interested to see what they do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pandrew87 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Yes? Did you watch the Bills down the stretch? It was awful. I believe cinci had the 3rd hardest schedule this season. There’s no denying how dominant they are. Plus, they kind of own the north for the foreseeable future so, I understand your aggravation lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAA1980 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Beck Bristow said: The Bengals approach to playing Mahomes has been to rush 3 and drop 8. In order to keep him from doing off script freestyle playmaking. KC should have much more in their playbook to attack that anyway, but especially with Mahomes injured. I'm interested to see what they do I’m sure the Bengals will try to stop the short game and force Mahomes to try to go deep to beat them if he starts off well on short passes. This isn’t the Jaguars who didn’t change anything on D even after Mahomes got hurt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Here’s a good breakdown of the Mahomes injury and how it’ll affect the gameplan against the Bengals https://theathletic.com/4116713/2023/01/24/mahomes-ankle-update-injury/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Yes? Did you watch the Bills down the stretch? It was awful. Seems like a pretty big stretch to hate on the Bengals here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 hours ago, FrantikRam said: Seems like a pretty big stretch to hate on the Bengals here oh i dont have to stretch to hate on them. I've been the #1 Bengals hater for a while, despite how great their posters are here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: oh i dont have to stretch to hate on them. I've been the #1 Bengals hater for a while, despite how great their posters are here. Great might be a stretch. We're only shooting for adequate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 hours ago, Beck Bristow said: Great might be a stretch. We're only shooting for adequate. And much like your team, you guys overachieve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 You have to game plan as if Mahomes is 100%. I doubt he'll be feeling his ankle at all on Sunday between wraps, treatment, and cortisone shots. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) Oh boy, the Bengals pass rush against a hobbled Mahomes? Not looking good. Mahomes does have a much better line than Buffalo, so I doubt he'll face the pressure Allen did. Still, it won't be easy. I just hope he lights up Apple. I thought I'd root for the Bengals, but their team talks a lot of smack, and that's turned me into a petty little bastard, haha. I'll be rooting for the Chiefs this week as long as my buddy (who's a Chiefs fan) doesn't run his mouth too much. I ❤️ the pettiness sports can bring out. Edited January 25, 2023 by WizeGuy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This is why God created Joe Burrow: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAA1980 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Reid said Mahomes is practicing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAA1980 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, THE DUKE said: You have to game plan as if Mahomes is 100%. I doubt he'll be feeling his ankle at all on Sunday between wraps, treatment, and cortisone shots. This would usually be at least a 2-4 week injury you can shoot him up with whatever you want but when he tries to plant and throw especially deep he is gonna be compromised and is gonna feel it. Edited January 25, 2023 by AAA1980 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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