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The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread


MikeT14

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1 minute ago, lavar703 said:

He completed 55% of his passes for 140 yards against Washington. Didn’t throw a TD pass. They still won 34-13. He had 8 games where he threw one or no TD passes. His only 300 yard game was against an awful Purdue team that had the 67th ranked defense in college football. The idea this guy is a top 5 pick is just ridiculous. 

He should be a 3rd round prospect 

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1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

Other than LB, the free agent signings have been the equivalent of shuffling deck chairs. We cut our LT and don’t have one. We signed an old, often injured TE. Hopefully Dotson develops but if he doesn’t we have nothing outside of Terry as far as pass catchers go. I know we still have time left and there’s the draft coming but this team looks like it’s going to be terrible next season. 

True but interior OL we really improved as well 

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3 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

If we draft McCarthy without a trade back, I would probably vomit. He is the 4th best QB in the draft. Drafting him at #2 would not make me happy.

I know... I know... #TrustTheProcess #InPetersWeTrust... but I just feel that is a tremendous waste of a very valuable asset. Again, if you don't see any difference between Maye, Daniels and McCarthy, just trade back a few spots, even if you only net an additional 2 this year, it would be worth it IMO.

At best he's the 4th QB in the draft. I have Penix above him & McCarthy & Nix as equals 

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13 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

He completed 55% of his passes for 140 yards against Washington. Didn’t throw a TD pass. They still won 34-13. He had 8 games where he threw one or no TD passes. His only 300 yard game was against an awful Purdue team that had the 67th ranked defense in college football. The idea this guy is a top 5 pick is just ridiculous. 

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Have we traded down yet...?

Man, Thursday can't get here soon enough.

So hoping a team like Vikings, Raiders, Cardinals or whomever trading up to #2.

Collect a haul that will set this team up for 3 plus years, still land blue chippers & avoid drafting Sam Howell 2.0, or the pressure cooker @#2.

Still land our QB on trade down and a few more picks in the top 100 this year & beyond.

I can hope, anyways.

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3 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Why are we pretending to see things with JJ that weren’t there

As a person who has watched Michigan football religiously, he’s got pretty much every tool you can ask for. Mobile, eyes constantly downfield under pressure, above average arm strength, far from a one read guy. When U of M was blowing teams out early in the season, he barely played in the second halves. As the season went on, and he got hurt, they ran heavily. They did what worked for them, and JJ was very capable. Even against Alabama, he made plays down the stretch. My biggest issue with him is just like with Drake Maye… sometimes you’re like “Okay what were you seeing there? What was your thought process?”

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7 minutes ago, TOUCAN said:

As a person who has watched Michigan football religiously, he’s got pretty much every tool you can ask for. Mobile, eyes constantly downfield under pressure, above average arm strength, far from a one read guy. When U of M was blowing teams out early in the season, he barely played in the second halves. As the season went on, and he got hurt, they ran heavily. They did what worked for them, and JJ was very capable. Even against Alabama, he made plays down the stretch. My biggest issue with him is just like with Drake Maye… sometimes you’re like “Okay what were you seeing there? What was your thought process?”

As someone who watched some Michigan games and then his tape this offseason I saw some of that some times but never enough for me to be like “yeah this guy is the real deal. I’d be super excited to get him on my team.” My biggest issue with him is like “what were you actually asked to process? What went behind a sat on read?”

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18 minutes ago, TOUCAN said:

Drake Maye is not Sam Howell. Stop.

Again, unpopular opinion, but their play-style is very similiar, especially their shortcomings: Poor footwork, sticking to their first read too long, playing hero-ball too much, football IQ. Maye has better size and arm strength, but saying they are similar is not saying one is the other.

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I’m not nearly as down on McCarthy as some of you guys are.

For me, McCarthy and Daniels are pretty interchangeable. I have some skepticism, but I see the traits people like too.

I think there’s massive risk in trying to translate a guy who didn’t have to carry a high workload in college — the difficulty level goes way up in the NFL, and now he’ll have to manage dropping back and throwing it 40 to 50 times. Because that’s the reality for the QB in a Kingsbury offense with a mediocre OL and mediocre RBs and a mediocre defense. We’re going to be behind a fair amount, and they’re not going to have the luxury of leaning on the run game (unless they’re just going to give up). He got to be 2004 Big Ben in college, just hand it off and then pick apart run-focused defenses, but that will no longer be the case in the pros.

And I do not buy the line that people are trying to sell about Michigan only leaning so heavily on the run because “it’s Harbaugh” and they still had full trust in JJ across the board. They didn’t take the ball out of Luck’s hands, and JJ gave them plenty of reason for concern in big moments. The two pick-sixes against TCU cost them a spot in the title game last year, and people seem to forget that he threw an awful pick against Alabama on his first pass this year (but it got negated due to the defender stepping out of bounds). 

With all that said, though, there’s also a lot to genuinely like. He’s the youngest QB in the draft (which is a big deal to me). His P2S rate is lower than the rest, and much closer to the “green” range. His adjusted completion percentage is off the charts. Aside from Caleb, he is the most natural looking thrower on the move, off platform. He’s certainly got more arm than Jayden, and he’s also the second-best pure runner of the main QBs. Plus, I’ve never met him, but people act like the kid walks on water. Which I think also probably has to be a factor. 
 

He’s still QB4 for me, but he’s actually probably closer to QB3(b). I have substantial questions about Daniels, and I think the difference in reported intangibles makes up for some of the differences in pure speed. 

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16 hours ago, TOUCAN said:

As a person who has watched Michigan football religiously, he’s got pretty much every tool you can ask for. Mobile, eyes constantly downfield under pressure, above average arm strength, far from a one read guy. When U of M was blowing teams out early in the season, he barely played in the second halves. As the season went on, and he got hurt, they ran heavily. They did what worked for them, and JJ was very capable. Even against Alabama, he made plays down the stretch. My biggest issue with him is just like with Drake Maye… sometimes you’re like “Okay what were you seeing there? What was your thought process?”

I agree with everything you said and my best friend is a UM guy. Since I’m a U guy and JJ was a guy I liked in HS I watched every game and your assessment IMO is right. But just like you said the key word is you watched him religiously. If you don’t and if you only watch this game or that game it’s understandable why people don’t agree. But I am with you I watched every game plus individualized faucet breakdowns and all 22 I think the kid is legit plus what he handled off the field which I believe is just as important to translating to a pro as anything you see on it and that part moreso then any other scout I got too see. And I read local college articles and campus posts like this guy is IMO that dude

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I always find it interesting to go back to the high school recruiting scouting reports on guys. Even though they are years old and don't consider the journey the player has been on through college I find them to be reasonably accurate. The top guys in this class weren't all from the same recruiting class but its still an interesting read: 

 

Caleb Williams 

https://247sports.com/player/caleb-williams-46040610/ 

Prospect Ranking: #1, 5 STAR

Prospect QB Ranking: #1

Future NFL Draft Projection: First Round

NFL Talent Comparison: Dak Prescott

 

Drake Maye

https://247sports.com/player/drake-maye-46054754/

Prospect Ranking: #24, 5 STAR

Prospect QB Ranking: #4

Future NFL Draft Projection: First Round

NFL Talent Comparison: Sam Bradford

 

Jayden Daniels

https://247sports.com/player/jayden-daniels-89980/

Prospect Ranking: #92, 4 STAR

Prospect QB Ranking: #11

Future NFL Draft Projection: Second Round

NFL Talent Comparison: Deshaun Watson

 

JJ McCarthy

https://247sports.com/player/jj-mccarthy-46042742/

Prospect Ranking: #38, 4 STAR

Prospect QB Ranking: #6

Future NFL Draft Projection: Second Round

NFL Talent Comparison: Kyle Allen

 

I would say that no QB prospect in this class has elevated his status more than Jayden Daniels, with JJ McCarthy a close second. Neither were expected to be first round talents entering college. The pedigree players are usually identified from a very young age. I would draft Drake Maye over Daniels and McCarthy.

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