The Michigan/Sign Stealing Thread

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

The biggest question I have is whether or not they look at the 2020 timeline with this scandal as a repeat offender for Harbs or if it’s added to it.

The fact that this happened at a pivotal time to turn the tide and resurrect the program is impossible to ignore.

His success against B1G opponents and failures in bowl and other big games vs non conference opponents cannot be ignored.

If the NCAA doesn’t come down HARD you’ll see some interesting fallout from other coaches and programs.

Mike Valenti talked about their record against the spread the last three years.  Prior to 2021, they were around .500 against the spread, the last three years they are 17-5-2 against the spread.  Every team, even the greats like Georgia, OSU, Bama, etc all are around .500 with a few being a couple games better.  The fact they are at 71% against the spread either means someone in Vegas needs to be fired or UM has an advantage.  Then add on their record against out of conference opponents that are decent and it all makes sense.  Harbaugh was about to get ran out of town, took a paycut instead of being fired, and all of a sudden they are elite again.  They need to come down hard on this for sure.  

[MWil23]

I’ll be the corny guy here:

Ryan Day might have been born on third base, but Jim Harbaugh stole third base.

[Jameson_Neat]

13 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Mike Valenti talked about their record against the spread the last three years.  Prior to 2021, they were around .500 against the spread, the last three years they are 17-5-2 against the spread.  Every team, even the greats like Georgia, OSU, Bama, etc all are around .500 with a few being a couple games better.  The fact they are at 71% against the spread either means someone in Vegas needs to be fired or UM has an advantage.  Then add on their record against out of conference opponents that are decent and it all makes sense.  Harbaugh was about to get ran out of town, took a paycut instead of being fired, and all of a sudden they are elite again.  They need to come down hard on this for sure.  

That number sounds bad on its own, but just looking around a bit, Penn State has been better ATS and Notre Dame has been comparable in the last few years. 

Maybe everyone really is cheating. 

 

[AkronsWitness]

52 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Mike Valenti talked about their record against the spread the last three years.  Prior to 2021, they were around .500 against the spread, the last three years they are 17-5-2 against the spread.  Every team, even the greats like Georgia, OSU, Bama, etc all are around .500 with a few being a couple games better.  The fact they are at 71% against the spread either means someone in Vegas needs to be fired or UM has an advantage.  Then add on their record against out of conference opponents that are decent and it all makes sense.  Harbaugh was about to get ran out of town, took a paycut instead of being fired, and all of a sudden they are elite again.  They need to come down hard on this for sure.  

That's the tough part--the timeline of all of this just adds up according to the report of when the sign stealing started taking place.

Its going to be tough for the to wiggle out of this because there seems to be not only a ton of evidence, but multiple Big10 programs willing to back it up. You think Franklin/Schiano/Day are not going to give up everything they have if/when they get questioned about this?

It's not that they were just doing scummy stuff on the recruiting trail or something, they were cheating in a way that directly impacted wins/losses of other schools. I imagine those other schools are going to be furious.

I just want to know what the punishment might look like. Dont want to sound overdramatic, but if they are found to have been sending employees to opposing teams games to illegally scout them that they then used for 3 years to help win games--i wouldnt rule out the death penalty. 

Whatever happens it sucks for their players man

Edited October 24, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[BobbyPhil1781]

Death penalty seems so harsh but I'm not going to pretend I know what is warranted in this situation especially before we know the full extent of what was going on

[MWil23]

There was one instance of another coach showing up to another game because he had other buddies on another team. He left at halftime after realizing his mistake and self reported the violation, which was a suspension for the first half of the next game.

So yeah, this is really really bad.

[AkronsWitness]

5 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Death penalty seems so harsh but I'm not going to pretend I know what is warranted in this situation especially before we know the full extent of what was going on

Ehh you can use last violations and punishments to get a good idea where this stands.

SMU got the death penalty for paying recruits to join them which gave them a 'non ethical' advantage on the field. Baylor received half a death penalty, as well as Miami for covering up violations and paying players. Tressel lost his career and received bowl bans for allowing players to pay for tattoos with autographs.

IF IF IF what Michigan is being accused of is true--I can see it falling somewhere between Miami and OSU just going by previous NCAA penalties. It might fall into the more harsh side because if Harbaugh already being on his 2nd and 3rd strike having previous violations.

Who knows, but I truly hope they legitimately find that nothing happened against the rules and this is all just nonsense speculation. Its not good for the sport and I was actually somewhat excited UM was good again.

[Sllim Pickens]

32 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said:

That number sounds bad on its own, but just looking around a bit, Penn State has been better ATS and Notre Dame has been comparable in the last few years. 

Maybe everyone really is cheating. 

 

PSU is on a tear this year at 6-1 against the spread.  The previous 3 seasons they are 60% against the spread.  ND is 6-2 this year and over the last 4 years they are 60.4% against the spread.  So while there are outliers, in general 60% is about as far off as someone will be over a three year period.  

Maybe, deeper dive into this year, UM is 4-3-1 against the spread overall.  In the Big Ten they are 4-0-1.  Similarly last year they went 2-2 against the spread outside of the Big 10.  In 2020 they were 1-5 against the spread overall.  The only bowl game that U of M has covered was Harbaugh's first one in 2016.  The trends and differences against the rest of the country and Big Ten opponents is suspicious more than just the overall number.  And the stark change in the Big 10 from pre 2021 and post.  

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Mike Valenti talked about their record against the spread the last three years.  Prior to 2021, they were around .500 against the spread, the last three years they are 17-5-2 against the spread.  Every team, even the greats like Georgia, OSU, Bama, etc all are around .500 with a few being a couple games better.  The fact they are at 71% against the spread either means someone in Vegas needs to be fired or UM has an advantage.  Then add on their record against out of conference opponents that are decent and it all makes sense.  Harbaugh was about to get ran out of town, took a paycut instead of being fired, and all of a sudden they are elite again.  They need to come down hard on this for sure.  

I just threw this in a bionomial distribution calculator, assuming a 50% chance to beat the spread, over 24 random events the probability that at least 2/3rds of them beat the spread is ~7.5%.

This does not meet criteria for statistical significance.

That doesn't mean "they cheated" isn't the best explanation for the data (it is), just means the sample isn't large enough for significance at the current trend rate.

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I just threw this in a bionomial distribution calculator, assuming a 50% chance to beat the spread, over 24 random events the probability that at least 2/3rds of them beat the spread is ~7.5%.

This does not meet criteria for statistical significance.

That doesn't mean "they cheated" isn't the best explanation for the data (it is), just means the sample isn't large enough for significance at the current trend rate.

Agreed, but in comparison to what they have done outside of the big ten and what they did in the big ten prior to 2021 sure makes it suspicious.  

[ramssuperbowl99]

16 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Agreed, but in comparison to what they have done outside of the big ten and what they did in the big ten prior to 2021 sure makes it suspicious.  

If someone has the records, we can do the t-test but I bet you'd get more of the same. Significance over 30 to 50 records is really difficult.

Obviously it's suspicious as hell. But Michigan will (correctly) say that if the issue is how the signs were stolen, then evidence based on the team results isn't meaningful. Fundamentally different than the Astros, where there was evidence of trash can banging in broad daylight.

 

But it's Harbaugh. I'm sure the excel file entitled, "Instructions for Stealing Signs from Other Teams in Violation of NCAA Bylaw 11.4.6" is saved on his desktop.

Edited October 24, 2023 by ramssuperbowl99

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

Ehh you can use last violations and punishments to get a good idea where this stands.

SMU got the death penalty for paying recruits to join them which gave them a 'non ethical' advantage on the field. Baylor received half a death penalty, as well as Miami for covering up violations and paying players. Tressel lost his career and received bowl bans for allowing players to pay for tattoos with autographs.

IF IF IF what Michigan is being accused of is true--I can see it falling somewhere between Miami and OSU just going by previous NCAA penalties. It might fall into the more harsh side because if Harbaugh already being on his 2nd and 3rd strike having previous violations.

Who knows, but I truly hope they legitimately find that nothing happened against the rules and this is all just nonsense speculation. Its not good for the sport and I was actually somewhat excited UM was good again.

All valid points. Guess we need to see how severe the evidence is before we can assume punishment.

Disagree on the last part. I want them to lose every game lol. Call me petty. I'm fine with it

[MWil23]

39 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If someone has the records, we can do the t-test but I bet you'd get more of the same. Significance over 30 to 50 records is really difficult.

Obviously it's suspicious as hell. But Michigan will (correctly) say that if the issue is how the signs were stolen, then evidence based on the team results isn't meaningful. Fundamentally different than the Astros, where there was evidence of trash can banging in broad daylight.

 

But it's Harbaugh. I'm sure the excel file entitled, "Instructions for Stealing Signs from Other Teams in Violation of NCAA Bylaw 11.4.6" is saved on his desktop.

It’ll be interesting to see how the “failure to monitor” is implemented here.

[Sllim Pickens]

6 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If someone has the records, we can do the t-test but I bet you'd get more of the same. Significance over 30 to 50 records is really difficult.

Obviously it's suspicious as hell. But Michigan will (correctly) say that if the issue is how the signs were stolen, then evidence based on the team results isn't meaningful. Fundamentally different than the Astros, where there was evidence of trash can banging in broad daylight.

 

But it's Harbaugh. I'm sure the excel file entitled, "Instructions for Stealing Signs from Other Teams in Violation of NCAA Bylaw 11.4.6" is saved on his desktop.

The videos, pictures, receipts from ticket purchases, videos of them filming the signals etc are the proof, and I get that the results don't technically matter, but finding correlation of the results to the time period seems to make sense.  Given it is just teams in conference that they had easier access to compared to those in bowl games that they couldn't steal signs from.  

In Jim Harbaugh's time at UM against the spread (ATS) including bowl games and real record:

2015: 7-6 ATS, 4-4 in conference, 10-3 overall, 1-0 bowl game 
2016: 6-7 ATS, 4-5 in conference, 10-3 overall, 0-1 bowl game (lost by 1 as 7 point favorites)
2017: 5-7-1 ATS, 4-4-1 in conference, 8-5 overall, 0-1 bowl game (lost by 7 as 9 point favorites)
2018: 6-7 ATS, 5-4 in conference, 10-3 overall, 0-1 bowl game (lost by 26)
2019: 7-6 ATS, 7-3 in conference, 9-4 overall, 0-1 bowl game (lost by 19)
2020: 1-5 ATS, 1-5 in conference, 2-4 overall, no bowl (weird in a season with no fans in the stands that they couldn't win this year, maybe it started the year before unofficially)
2021: 11-3 ATS, 8-2 in conference, 12-2 overall, 0-1 bowl game (lost by 23)
2022: 8-5-1 ATS, 6-2-1 in conference, 13-1 overall, 0-1 bowl game (only loss, lost by 6 as a 9 point favorite)
2023: 4-3-1 ATS, 4-0-1 in conference, 8-0 overall

Overall in Harbaugh's tenure, that makes them 55-49-3 (51%) overall ATS, and 43-29-3 (57%) in conference, 12-20 (37.5%) out of conference.

Prior to 2021 they were 32-38-1 (45%) overall 25-25-1 (49%) in conference, 7-13 (35%) out of conference. 

The last three years they are 23-11-2 (63%) ATS and 18-4-2 (69%) in conference, 5-7 (42%) out of conference. 

So yes, it is likely to small of a period to accurately predict and be a true statistical anomaly, however when looking at the timeline of this guy being hired (2021 season), the status of the program at the time (coming off 9-4 and 2-4 seasons with investigations regarding recruiting violations during that time) to all of a sudden only lose 1 regular season game over the next three years, increasing your times beating the spread 20% in conference but only 7% out of conference, and losing or seriously underperforming in every big game/bowl game out of conference the same way he did before is very fishy. 

Its funny how they still gets destroyed by Georgia when they are 12-1 overall and Vegas predicts them to lose by only 7.5.  Or they are predicted to handle TCU (9 points is a huge spread in a final 4 game) and they lose.  Its almost like Vegas was working their calculations with the info they had, and not counting the fact that Michigan did not have the other teams signals. However UM was having the same results out of conference while dominating in conference.  Statistical proof, absolutely not.  Enough variance to show there was some benefit to all of those claiming it isn't that big of a deal and they still have to stop them, absolutely.  

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Death penalty seems so harsh but I'm not going to pretend I know what is warranted in this situation especially before we know the full extent of what was going on

Like I said that would not matter as much in todays NIL and transfer portal..death penalty lost its sting some.