2018 Draft Thread I

[48 1/2ers]

Just now, y2lamanaki said:

Yeah, that is somewhat worrisome, but I see that as a guy who wants to win. I don't see that as problematic here. Good veterans in his position group and on offense as a whole. Combine that with Garoppolo seemingly never losing his cool, and I don't see a long-term issue. I do see a 6'4" red zone threat, however, and that to me is a big need that would be filled.

I just think he's a tad overrated this year, he hasn't exceeded what I saw last year in him as a day 2 receiver. Not like Corey Davis did in his return year. Personally I dont see much separation from him and Simmie Cobbs, Allen Lazard, and maybe even Jaleel Scott. Overall this year is a good year to need a big target WR. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, 48 1/2ers said:

What are your thoughts on his bowl game performance?

I thought his body language was some of the worst i've seen in a really long time, albeit after his QB had 4 to's in the first half. 

My first thought, honestly, is "typical wide receiver" lol. 

[y2lamanaki]

32 minutes ago, 48 1/2ers said:

I just think he's a tad overrated this year, he hasn't exceeded what I saw last year in him as a day 2 receiver. Not like Corey Davis did in his return year. Personally I dont see much separation from him and Simmie Cobbs, Allen Lazard, and maybe even Jaleel Scott. Overall this year is a good year to need a big target WR. 

Well, Cobbs is my biggest wish, so there's that. And Corey Davis was possibly the most special small school WR to come out since Moss, so I agree they don't compare well. But in terms of talent, I still believe Sutton is a mid-to-late first round pick who would thrive in this offense as a TD collector.

[Forge]

11 hours ago, Geek said:

I should mention in that scenario that Barkley would also be off the board.

and no Ridley please

I've been down on Ridley all year...he's a little older than I prefer, and I don't see a true difference maker at the receiver position. He doesn't have the skillset in my opinion. But I won't lie that he's grown on me some...some silky smooth routes, and I like that he's a hands catcher as opposed to a chest a guy. I don't know what his upside is though...I don't view it as super high, but at the same time, I do think that there's a pretty good floor there. 

[Forge]

Interesting note I read in the Cleveland forum. Apparently Tony Pauline said that after Dorsey had been fired, he labeled Josh Rosen as a "stay away guy". 

This could potentially really suck for Cleveland,  or be really good, especially if Darnold goes back to school. If Darnold stays in school, and Rosen doesn't seem to be a fit (he apparently doesn't want to be there, Dorsey evidently would not want him), they would have to settle for Jackson / Mayfield / Allen if they still went quarterback. The good thing is that they may get a nice haul from a team that does want Rosen and needs to skip over the Giants to do so, but they still need a quarterback more than anything, and their repeated reticence to take a chance on the top quarterbacks in the draft is what puts them in the position they are in now. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

35 minutes ago, Forge said:

Interesting note I read in the Cleveland forum. Apparently Tony Pauline said that after Dorsey had been fired, he labeled Josh Rosen as a "stay away guy". 

This could potentially really suck for Cleveland,  or be really good, especially if Darnold goes back to school. If Darnold stays in school, and Rosen doesn't seem to be a fit (he apparently doesn't want to be there, Dorsey evidently would not want him), they would have to settle for Jackson / Mayfield / Allen if they still went quarterback. The good thing is that they may get a nice haul from a team that does want Rosen and needs to skip over the Giants to do so, but they still need a quarterback more than anything, and their repeated reticence to take a chance on the top quarterbacks in the draft is what puts them in the position they are in now. 

How does this help the 49ers?

[Forge]

Just now, PapaShogun said:

How does this help the 49ers?

It doesn't so far as I know. I think that we are picking too far down the line behind too many quarterback needy teams at this point in time. With the Rams leaning toward resting starters next week, there's a good chance that we will be picking even further down. 

[Ronnie's Pinky]

So, I crunched some numbers regarding the 49ers' draft pick and a potential SoS tiebreaker with the Jets. Here's what I found:

1) The Jets are almost certainly going to get killed by the Pats this weekend, so if the 49ers beat the Rams, all bets are off. The rest of this post is assuming that the Rams and Pats win.

2) Right now, the 49ers and Jets are exactly tied for the 7th/8th picks in the draft. They have identical records and SoS, and would flip a coin to determine who gets the 7th pick if the season ended today. There is a real chance that they will remain tied, and it will come down to a coin flip once the season is over.

3) There aren't many games in week 17 which can actually change these teams' respective SoS percentages because it is a "division rivalry week" around the NFL. Both the 49ers and Jets have an equal number of games (5 each) scheduled this week between teams that were both their respective opponents during the season. These games will all yield a .500 SoS number for the 49ers and Jets, so everything will even out.

4) Both teams have one opponent on the season who will almost certainly lose this week. For the 49ers, it is the Bears (vs. the Vikings), and for the Jets, it is the Browns (vs. the Steelers).

5) Both teams have a single game in which an seasonal opponent plays another team that was not an opponent this season, and the outcome is in doubt. For the Jets, it is Titans vs. Jaguars. The Jets played Jacksonville this year, but did not play Tennessee, so whatever the Jags do, it will change the Jets' SoS. This game will yield a .500 result for the 49ers' SoS because they played both teams. For the 49ers, it is Panthers vs. Falcons. The 49ers played Carolina this year, but did not play Atlanta, so whatever the Panthers do, it will change the 49ers' SoS. This game will yield a .500 result for the Jets' SoS because they played both teams.

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Long story short, assuming both the Jets and 49ers lose, and the Vikings and Steelers win, who gets the 7th pick comes down to just two games, both of which have playoff implications: Jags/Titans and Falcons/Panthers. We want the Jags and the Falcons to win. In the above (fairly likely) scenario, if both the Jags and Falcons win, the 49ers have the 7th pick. If both lose, it belongs to the Jets. If they split, it will come down to a coin flip.

[Forge]

15 minutes ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

So, I crunched some numbers regarding the 49ers' draft pick and a potential SoS tiebreaker with the Jets. Here's what I found:

1) The Jets are almost certainly going to get killed by the Pats this weekend, so if the 49ers beat the Rams, all bets are off. The rest of this post is assuming that the Rams and Pats win.

2) Right now, the 49ers and Jets are exactly tied for the 7th/8th picks in the draft. They have identical records and SoS, and would flip a coin to determine who gets the 7th pick if the season ended today. There is a real chance that they will remain tied, and it will come down to a coin flip once the season is over.

3) There aren't many games in week 17 which can actually change these teams' respective SoS percentages because it is a "division rivalry week" around the NFL. Both the 49ers and Jets have an equal number of games (5 each) scheduled this week between teams that were both their respective opponents during the season. These games will all yield a .500 SoS number for the 49ers and Jets, so everything will even out.

4) Both teams have one opponent on the season who will almost certainly lose this week. For the 49ers, it is the Bears (vs. the Vikings), and for the Jets, it is the Browns (vs. the Steelers).

5) Both teams have a single game in which an seasonal opponent plays another team that was not an opponent this season, and the outcome is in doubt. For the Jets, it is Titans vs. Jaguars. The Jets played Jacksonville this year, but did not play Tennessee, so whatever the Jags do, it will change the Jets' SoS. This game will yield a .500 result for the 49ers' SoS because they played both teams. For the 49ers, it is Panthers vs. Falcons. The 49ers played Carolina this year, but did not play Atlanta, so whatever the Panthers do, it will change the 49ers' SoS. This game will yield a .500 result for the Jets' SoS because they played both teams.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Long story short, assuming both the Jets and 49ers lose, and the Vikings and Steelers win, who gets the 7th pick comes down to just two games, both of which have playoff implications: Jags/Titans and Falcons/Panthers. We want the Jags and the Falcons to win. In the above (fairly likely) scenario, if both the Jags and Falcons win, the 49ers have the 7th pick. If both lose, it belongs to the Jets. If they split, it will come down to a coin flip.

Great info. Unfortunately for us, looks like the Rams are resting their starters...at least that's what is being said in the Rams forum, so it may not matter much. 

[big9erfan]

5 hours ago, Forge said:

I've been down on Ridley all year...he's a little older than I prefer, and I don't see a true difference maker at the receiver position. He doesn't have the skillset in my opinion. But I won't lie that he's grown on me some...some silky smooth routes, and I like that he's a hands catcher as opposed to a chest a guy. I don't know what his upside is though...I don't view it as super high, but at the same time, I do think that there's a pretty good floor there. 

Exactly what I think of him.  If WR were our only hole I'd be interested in the teens, but we have bigger needs at so many other positions. At 7 to 10 I'm good with Nelson. If we trade back to the teens maybe Ward, or Barkley or an edge rusher.  If we trade all the way back to the 20's I'd take Price who I think is almost as good of a Center as Nelson is at Guard. Plus he played G most of his career and could always be used there if necessary. I like the idea of a big-bodied WR that can catch with one of our third round picks.  

Because we have Staley and Brown it doesn't appear we need an OT.  But looks can be deceiving.  We have nothing behind them if one gets hurts, and next year will be Staley's 12th. There can't be too much left in that tank. If McGlinchey could really play G he might be a decent choice with the plan to move Brown over to the left side in a couple years, McGlinchey to the right side and then we find a more permanent fix for the G spot.

[big9erfan]

I like LBs that get a lot of tackles in college (assuming they have the requisite size and speed).  Josie Jewell has had over 120 tackles each of the  past three seasons!

[Geek]

Thoughts on Marcus Davenport at LEO? Rumor is that multiple execs think he goes top 15.

[N4L]

 

@Ronnie's Pinky EDIT: didnt see the part where you said we had to lose

There are two games that you didnt include that have relevance. The jets played the Browns and not the steelers (nor the jets), so a browns win helps the niners. The niners played the bears and not the Vikings so a vikings win helps the niners. So three of the following four need to go our way:

Browns over Steelers

Vikings over Bears

Jags over Titans

Falcons over Panthers

 

So basically, the browns are going to lose and that will mean we have to sweep the other games. 

[Knowledge]

Completely hypothetical and has zero chance of happening but saw it on another forum and thought it was interesting

Lets say the Browns offer #1 pick #4 pick and Myles Garrett for Jimmy G. 49ers can sign Cousins. You doing the deal?

Me personally I wouldn't because i feel Jimmy G has a higher ceiling and obviously QB is the most important position . I think any GM would at least have to think about it for a couple mins though but I know Lynch would turn it down because ive seen the enthusiasm he has for Jimmy

[straighthate]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

It doesn't so far as I know. I think that we are picking too far down the line behind too many quarterback needy teams at this point in time. With the Rams leaning toward resting starters next week, there's a good chance that we will be picking even further down. 

I think it helps if there’s a run on QBs at the top just so we have our pick of who we really want. I’d love it if somehow Chubb and Nelson were on the board at 8 or wherever we end up because teams started making moves to get QBs in the first few picks because they worry that other teams are going to.