2018 Draft Thread I

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Best case scenario Jimmy G has back to back stellar games against LA and Jacksonville that are close losses while not getting injured. 

[N4L]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ninersnation.com/platform/amp/2017/12/18/16789742/2018-nfl-draft-order-49ers-position-first-round 

This article factors in future opponents but doesn't project future wins/losses. Assuming that we lose both games and end the season with 4 wins, that means the SOS tiebreaker will come into play with 4 teams. Colts, bears, bucs and Texans. 

Bears play the browns, and have a pretty sizable disadvantage in SOS, so even if the browns beat them, we would still pick ahead of them. 

Bucs play the saints and Panthers and they also have a comparable SOS with the bears, so we will pick ahead of them assuming that we both don't win again this season.  

Colts and Texans - here is where it gets interesting. The NFCW played the AFCS this year. That means all three share a lot of common opponents. The difference is that all three teams played the teams within their division twice and therefore they count double towards SOS.

In week 16 the rams play the Titans. The Titans winning would increase the texans/colts SOS twice (played tenn twice) while it would lower our SOS twice (visa versa) and a niners loss to the jags also increases our SOS by one game, while it increases it twice for both of them. So by losing we are also helping our tiebreaker chances.

Also, because they are in the same division, they both played the AFCN this year. That means that any Steelers, Ravens, browns, Bengals win will increase their SOS and help us snag the tiebreaker in this three horse race. 

Outside of those common opponents (AFCN, NFCW and their divisional games) they played:

Hou - pats, cheifs

Colts - bills, broncos 

 

The Texans play the colts week 17. If the Texans win, we will more than likely pick 4th. IF the colts win, there is a chance that we are in a 3 way tie and pick 3rd or 5th depending on how the games go below. Let's assume the colts win to make it interesting.

 

SO according to the articles adjusted SOS for future opponents (but not taking into account projected winners from week 16 and 17 for previous and future opponents) we sit at: 

Colts .487

Houston .504

49ers .513 

Bottom line - what every niners fan should be rooting for these next two weeks for the SOS tiebreaker: 

Every AFCN team to win, every NFCW team to lose, every AFCS team to win, every NFCE team to lose (we played them this year) 

Here is a breakdown of week 16 games with SOS relevance for us and the bolded being who we want to win:

Lions @ Bengals 

Miami @ KC (only relevant for the Texans tiebreaker)

Cle @ chi 

Broncos @ Redskins (valued at 2x for the colts tiebreaker and 1x for Texans tiebreaker since we played Redskins and only the colts played denver)

Rams @ titans (valued at 4x for all three teams because we played the rams twice so it will bump us down two games while it will bump them both up two games meaning a 4 game swing)

Seattle @ cowboys 

NYG @ Arizona 

Oak @ PHI 

The pats play the bills and I think it would be better if the bills beat the pats, simply because I would rather not let Cleveland pick twice before we pick once, who obviously owns the Texans pick. 

*** 1x should theoretically count as .004 in SOS considering you play 16 games against teams who play 16 games that means if every team you played won every game it would be 256-0 so 255-1 is .996 and 1-255 is .004 *** so a titans victory would mean roughly a .016 swing and considering all three teams are within .026 from each other currently that game could theoretically catapult us up to #3 if we get some other help ***

Week 17 is much more simple because nearly every game is a divisional game, meaning that basically everyone will break even and go .500 that week with five exceptions: 

Panthers @ falcons 

Bears @ Vikings 

 

Bills @ Miami 

Jets @ Patriots 

Cheifs @ broncos 

The first two games are our non-common opponents who don't play each other. So we clearly know who we want to win. The other three will depend on how week 16 goes and then obviously it will require a colts win in either week to make any of these games/this post relevant at all lol 

 

#3 could be the difference between the massive haul on the trade down or the guy that we want. So here's to a colts win or two 

 

[rudyZ]

N4L, you work way too hard. Have a drink.

[N4L]

18 hours ago, rudyZ said:

N4L, you work way too hard. Have a drink.

More like, go to bed lol but now you know which games to follow/root for this weekend - So, you're welcome 

Stoked that there is two games Saturday, 49ers on Sunday, and then two games on Monday. Feels almost like... Playoffs. 

 

To bad I will be with my girls family all of which don't know/don't care about my holiday tradition of watching sports lol 

[GW21]

@y2lamanaki it could happen.

[y2lamanaki]

23 minutes ago, Gore Whore 21 said:

@y2lamanaki it could happen.

Cobbs is the exact guy I would want for this offense right now.

[Forge]

We had a kicker and punter bypass their senior season and declare early for this draft this year. That's pretty impressive. 

[rudyZ]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

We had a kicker and punter bypass their senior season and declare early for this draft this year. That's pretty impressive. 

Where's Baalke?! He loves junior punters.

[John232]

What round is Cobbs projected to go in?

 

The Giants are in the Drivers seat for any trade right now, but I think it's possible they pass up a QB and still sit at 2. When talking about teams with atrocious interior line play, Giants are right up there with Us, Houston and Cinci. And if the new staff isn't totally sold on Darnold (unlikely) it would probably be best for them to go BPA and need and draft Nelson. That said, I really have a hard time seeing Nelson fall to us. I suspect the Colts will take Chubb but  would not be surprised if they opt for Nelson so they can protect their franchise. 

[Forge]

4 hours ago, John232 said:

What round is Cobbs projected to go in?

 

The Giants are in the Drivers seat for any trade right now, but I think it's possible they pass up a QB and still sit at 2. When talking about teams with atrocious interior line play, Giants are right up there with Us, Houston and Cinci. And if the new staff isn't totally sold on Darnold (unlikely) it would probably be best for them to go BPA and need and draft Nelson. That said, I really have a hard time seeing Nelson fall to us. I suspect the Colts will take Chubb but  would not be surprised if they opt for Nelson so they can protect their franchise. 

Cobbs is likely a 2-3 guy, i think.

I'd be surprised if the Giants bypass quarterback. That comes straight from ownership that they are to look into the quarterbacks. I can't see them bypassing a franchise qb for a guard. I do agree that Chubb and the colts seem like a natural fit, but likewise, i could see them go Nelson. I lean towards the former for them though. If we stay at 4/5, i feel like 92% comfortable that Nelson will be there if we want him and don't trade out. The only question to me would be the colts. Right now, i see Rosen/Darnold 1-2 in whatever order, Chubb, Barkley, then us. Cleveland may also trade out if 4, so Nelson could go there as well to whomever trades in there, Cincinnati being the most likely.

[John232]

Is Darnold confirmed coming out? If he doesn't, that's going to be huge for us as a bargaining chip. I really don't see the Giants trading out of the second if that's the case. I'm not sure anyone would be sold on any of the other QB's to trade up to 2. Nelson would probably be gone by our pick too. We would still have a pretty sweet spot if we did want to trade back though.

I also could see the Browns passing on Barkley and going with Minkah Fitzpatrick or even Calvin Ridley. 

[Forge]

40 minutes ago, John232 said:

Is Darnold confirmed coming out? If he doesn't, that's going to be huge for us as a bargaining chip. I really don't see the Giants trading out of the second if that's the case. I'm not sure anyone would be sold on any of the other QB's to trade up to 2. Nelson would probably be gone by our pick too. We would still have a pretty sweet spot if we did want to trade back though.

I also could see the Browns passing on Barkley and going with Minkah Fitzpatrick or even Calvin Ridley. 

So far, I haven't heard Darnold confirm, I'm just assuming that he will. If he doesn't come out, man, that throws a wrench in the entire thing and I don't know what would happen. Would the Giants or Browns really take Mayfield / Jackson at 1 or 2? I dunno. Honestly, I don't love this draft at the top. If only Rosen comes out, I could see a mad scramble for teams at the top of the draft trying to trade down. I still don't see a lot of love for Guards in the top 5. It just typically doesn't happen, even in weak drafts (2013 comes immediately to mind - two highly touted guard prospects in a very weak draft at the top, and neither went in the top 5). Now, it could definitely happen, but I still like our odds even if we are picking at #5 (of course, then again, we may not have interest in taking a guard top 5 either lol). 

I could see Fitzpatrick be a fit for Cleveland, not sure about Ridley. They have Coleman and Gordon coming back, and those are two pretty good receivers. Add in a year experience from Njoku and Duke Johnson in the slot, and that's not a bad offense in the skill players if you add a good running back (Cr.owell is really just an average running back for the most part and is a free agent...not sure that they will bring him back). Coleman has been injured two straight years, but the good thing is that it's not like recurring soft tissue injuries - he's broken his hand twice. While he may be more prone to broken bones (get more Calcium, Corey!) that is kind of hard to say. I suppose if it happens again, you have to start to admit the possibility that he's just more prone to them. But yeah, they could easily bypass Barkley - like guard, running back isn't exactly a position that people love to spend a top 5 pick on. But I think he's definitely a top 5 talent and this is a weak class, so it may be a situation where they feel they are just getting the best player with Barkley. But if Dorsey doesn't like running back early, they could easily bypass him. 

[Forge]

After today's loss to the Ravens, the Colts are locked into a top 3 pick regardless of what happens the rest of the season. So basically, the top 3 are all locked in (I believe the Giants could technically fall out if they win out both of their games, but I find that highly unlikely), with just the order to be determined. So best pick we are looking at would be 4, which we would get if Houston beats Indy in the finale (I'm assuming that we lose to both Jax and the Rams, who are both very, very good teams at this point). 

[big9erfan]

At that point I'd still want to trade back a bit, but only if some team really covets Allen or Mayfield or Jackson and would be willing to give up a lot to move up.

[Forge]

28 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

At that point I'd still want to trade back a bit, but only if some team really covets Allen or Mayfield or Jackson and would be willing to give up a lot to move up.

The team I keep an eye on is Denver. They were supposedly scouting both Allen and Mayfield, and obviously we have a good connection with them. That could kill a chance for Nelson, as they pick behind Cincinnati, but depending on the return, may be worth it, and I think that would put us in range for someone like Key or one of the receivers or whoever.