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Where does Michael Penix land in the draft?


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2 hours ago, MaddHatter said:

I think Penix is what Henson Hooker would have been if not for his knee injury at the end of the season.  A likely Day 2 pick who is pro ready but lacks a ton of upside beyond what he already is, but should be an above average NFL starter.  

To my eye Penix is a way better thrower of the football than Hooker, in terms of having a quick release and downfield accuracy. 

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13 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

To my eye Penix is a way better thrower of the football than Hooker, in terms of having a quick release and downfield accuracy. 

He might, I’m certainly not a Scout.  Hooker, to me, had an elite ability to make reads and know where to go with the ball and could make all the throws.  He wasn’t going to throw it 80yards from his knees but if you wanted a guy who could read a D, protect the ball, make the right throws and escape when you needed him to, Hooker could get it done.  He wasn’t going to be an elite runner like Lamar and those guys and he wasn’t going to be an elite arm, but I think he will be a solid NFL Starter and was a bit surprised the Titans passed on him for Will when they had a shot at him in the third and knew they had Tannehill for the short term

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17 minutes ago, MaddHatter said:

He might, I’m certainly not a Scout.  Hooker, to me, had an elite ability to make reads and know where to go with the ball and could make all the throws.  He wasn’t going to throw it 80yards from his knees but if you wanted a guy who could read a D, protect the ball, make the right throws and escape when you needed him to, Hooker could get it done.  He wasn’t going to be an elite runner like Lamar and those guys and he wasn’t going to be an elite arm, but I think he will be a solid NFL Starter and was a bit surprised the Titans passed on him for Will when they had a shot at him in the third and knew they had Tannehill for the short term

Difference was that any team drafting Hooker knew that they weren’t getting him on the field for basically his entire rookie season. If he was totally healthy, you have to imagine he’d have gone a little higher. As of now, Penix does have the past injuries that should be concerning, but he’s healthy (knock on wood).

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

I like Penix a hell of a lot more than I liked Hooker. 

I think Penix ultimately lands in the late first / early second 

Agreed.

I have his as a 3rd round talent (would be 2nd if he didn't have such a crazy injury history) but I think he goes between the 20th and 40th picks. QB's positional value basically kicks them up a round when they are picked for me.

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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

He's also playing with a likely top 15 pick (Odunze) and probably another Day 2 WR (Polk).  I think you're splitting hairs between Bo Nix and Michael Penix IMO.  Penix probably has more "upside" in terms of what he can be in the NFL, but I think Nix is probably a bit safer and at the very least I think he's a solid backup QB for the next decade.  To me, Penix is either a solid starting QB or he's out of the league after a few years.

As for the last part, it's that same kind of logic that made Paxton Lynch, Christian Ponder, and Daniel Jones as FRPs.  When you draft for need (and specifically at QB), you usually get burned pretty badly.

So what if he’s throwing to good players? Joe Burrow threw to Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. CJ Stroud threw to MHJ, JSN, etc.

If you can get the ball to these guys that’s all that matters. And Penix does with Authority. 

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All season I was thinking second with it being likelier he goes in the third than first. With what we saw with Levis and Willis, I think teams are more gun-shy than ever when picking first round QBs.

There are some GMs/coaches in the middle first like Atlanta and Denver who may feel pressure to find an answer at the position in this draft and pull the trigger on guys like Penix and Nix in the first, however. Penix is playing himself into the conversation, for sure.

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15 hours ago, MaddHatter said:

He might, I’m certainly not a Scout.  Hooker, to me, had an elite ability to make reads and know where to go with the ball and could make all the throws.  He wasn’t going to throw it 80yards from his knees but if you wanted a guy who could read a D, protect the ball, make the right throws and escape when you needed him to, Hooker could get it done.  He wasn’t going to be an elite runner like Lamar and those guys and he wasn’t going to be an elite arm, but I think he will be a solid NFL Starter and was a bit surprised the Titans passed on him for Will when they had a shot at him in the third and knew they had Tannehill for the short term

Hooker pretty much never had to diagnose a coverage. Heupel’s system made it insanely easy for him. Penix is excellent at scanning and going through progressions. Hooker is more athletic and probably has marginally a stronger arm, but I think Penix is much more developed and good at QB things.  

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12 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Hooker pretty much never had to diagnose a coverage. Heupel’s system made it insanely easy for him. Penix is excellent at scanning and going through progressions. Hooker is more athletic and probably has marginally a stronger arm, but I think Penix is much more developed and good at QB things.  

I would disagree with that assessment of Hooker - he had to diagnose coverage pre-snap, go through his progressions and diagnose blitzes.  He may not have been in a pure NFL, traditional offense with the combination of Air Raid and Veer & Shoot that Heupel brings, but there is some of it in there.  What most people raved about with Hooker and why he was successful was what was between his ears, not his athleticism or arm strength.  Granted he had those but they weren't his defining trait

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44 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Hooker pretty much never had to diagnose a coverage. Heupel’s system made it insanely easy for him. Penix is excellent at scanning and going through progressions. Hooker is more athletic and probably has marginally a stronger arm, but I think Penix is much more developed and good at QB things.  

Rumor has it, it was similar at VT too. Cornelson "told" him where the ball was going.

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