2024 NFC North = War Zone?

[dll2000]

15 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

LOL!

GB has been hearing that for oh, I don't know. 30 years now!

Hey, Cubs won world series this century.  

Been awhile since GB hoisted the big trophy as well now.

NFCN titles aren't that impressive.  

[vegas492]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Hey, Cubs won world series this century.  

Been awhile since GB hoisted the big trophy as well now.

NFCN titles aren't that impressive.  

[dll2000]

18 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

LOL.  You guys have been better for a long time.  No denying that.  

Worm always turns though.  Or whatever the saying.

 

[CWood21]

7 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     Few are betting on Green Bay but many of us are willing to wager against the Bears and Vikes.  If Minny lands a rookie QB who, in his first year, is as good as Kirk Cousins, they'll beat Green Bay handily.  If they get a pivot who is as good as Kirk Cousins having a career year (as he was when injured), the Vikings beat Detroit.  Let's assume neither of those will happen.

     Chicago's defence is as bad as Green Bay's but the Packers have shown a pattern of underperforming there.  Chicago is just plain bad but at least they play on par with their [lack of] talent.  Is it too much to ask the Bears to get their first two picks right?  Probably, but if they do fill those two critical gaping holes on offence they pull away from the Pack.

     The presence of awful is easier to solve than the absence of good.

Handily?  Kirk Cousins as the Vikings' starting QB is went 50-37-1.  Over that same period, the Packers have gone 69-45-1.  Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have only had ONE losing record and that was the only year they didn't finish top 2 in their division.  You talk about assumptions, and the reality is that QB4 is likely not going to be anywhere near as good as Kirk Cousins is/was.  The Vikings were 4-4 at the time of the Cousins' injury, and the Lions were 6-2 to start the year.  There's 0 factual basis to justify that the Vikings would have surpassed Detroit in the standings.  Short of that rookie QB playing at a CJ Stroud-level, the Vikings aren't going to be competing for a title this year.

[SodeeWater_Cheezburger]

8 hours ago, vegas492 said:

LOL!

GB has been hearing that for oh, I don't know. 30 years now!

GB had a far better quarterback for the last 30 years.  Unless Caleb is a bust (or we ruin him, which I admit we are very capable of doing), the days of Green Bay having a better QB should soon be a memory.  That makes a big difference.

[General Tso]

39 minutes ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

GB had a far better quarterback for the last 30 years.  Unless Caleb is a bust (or we ruin him, which I admit we are very capable of doing), the days of Green Bay having a better QB should soon be a memory.  That makes a big difference.

Caleb will have to do a lot to surpass just '23 Love let alone future Love.

[Dr A W Niloc]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Handily?  Kirk Cousins as the Vikings' starting QB is went 50-37-1.  Over that same period, the Packers have gone 69-45-1.

     We're talking about 2023->2024.  Minny's defence has broken out (e.g. best DVOA in this division) and their pass protection (unlike their run blocking) has soared.  Green Bay's defence and [previously top six] blocking have fallen off.  (Again the Packer RBs face the strongest positional schedule in the league;  Minny's will be dead average.)  If the Vikings can nullify Green Bay's significant advantage at QB it's all over but the shouting.

Quote

Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have only had ONE losing record and that was the only year they didn't finish top 2 in their division.  You talk about assumptions, and the reality is that QB4 is likely not going to be anywhere near as good as Kirk Cousins is/was.

      True.  In an average year the QB4 doesn't crack the top 32 in the pros.  I agree with you that the odds are against Minnesota obtaining a top 16 QB and contending.  That said, 2024 isn't an average crop.

Quote

The Vikings were 4-4 at the time of the Cousins' injury, and the Lions were 6-2 to start the year.  There's 0 factual basis to justify that the Vikings would have surpassed Detroit in the standings.

      Not without their starting QB and WR1, certainly.  They were a pitch and catch team missing their pitcher (Kirk Cousins) for 9 games and their catcher (Justin Jefferson) for 7.  Would you expect such a team to win more than 7 games?

Quote

      Short of that rookie QB playing at a CJ Stroud-level, the Vikings aren't going to be competing for a title this year.

Exactly as I said, yes.  If the Vikes don't stumble onto a great QB Detroit wins the NFC-North.  If Telegram Sam Darnold is the main man in Minny they may be competing for the #1 pick in the 2025 draft.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

We're talking about 2023->2024.  Minny's defence has broken out (e.g. best DVOA in this division) and their pass protection (unlike their run blocking) has soared.  Green Bay's defence and [previously top six] blocking have fallen off.  (Again the Packer RBs face the strongest positional schedule in the league;  Minny's will be dead average.)  If the Vikings can nullify Green Bay's significant advantage at QB it's all over but the shouting.

They're the best out of an otherwise miserable defense.  Cool.  Ironically speaking, Green Bay actually finished with a lower oPPG than Minnesota did last year despite it being routinely pointed out that the Packers' defensive coaching staff really struggled to utilize their players correctly.  Unlike Minnesota who has Brian Flores who is routinely praised for his ability to get the most out of his players.  Also, the loss of Danielle Hunter is going to be a bigger loss than I think most care to admit.  Of the 43 sacks, Hunter accounted for 38% of the sacks.  And the Vikings' 2nd leading pass rusher signed with Carolina as a FA.  Obviously, they signed Jonathan Greenard as their replacement for Danielle Hunter, but his track history is nowhere near Hunter's.  And when your pass rush goes, your defensive backs tend to get exposed.  I'm not expecting them to fall off the face of the earth by any means especially given Flores' history, but there's more than enough room for concern that the defense is going to be an issue this year.

4 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

True.  In an average year the QB4 doesn't crack the top 32 in the pros.  I agree with you that the odds are against Minnesota obtaining a top 16 QB and contending.  That said, 2024 isn't an average crop.

I'm not going to say 0%, but let's put it this way it's closer to 0% than it is 100% by about a thousand times.  If Minnesota can get a top 16 QB out of their draft pick, this is a whole different discussion.  But unless you think a rookie QB coming in is going to replace Kirk Cousins' production, this whole is discussion is moot.

4 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Not without their starting QB and WR1, certainly.  They were a pitch and catch team missing their pitcher (Kirk Cousins) for 9 games and their catcher (Justin Jefferson) for 7.  Would you expect such a team to win more than 7 games?

So...you're essentially basing your ENTIRE opinion on the Vikings in 2025 based on what they did in 2023?  That makes absolutely no sense.  Look, their offensive skill positions look absolutely loaded with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.  And they've got a pair of really good OTs.  But they've got a massive hole at QB, and their IOL isn't much better.  IF they get good QB play, they probably push for a playoff spot.  If they get average QB play, they're maybe a fringe .500 team.  If they get poor QB play, they're probably a 4-6 win team.  Their defense isn't going to be the one to carry them unless they end up investing their picks this year into the defense, which seems unlikely at best.

4 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Exactly as I said, yes.  If the Vikes don't stumble onto a great QB Detroit wins the NFC-North.  If Telegram Sam Darnold is the main man in Minny they may be competing for the #1 pick in the 2025 draft.

The whole discussions started with the notion that Green Bay wasn't a heavy favorite to finish top 2 in the NFC North.  Nothing that has transpired this offseason has suggested that anything has changed from last year.  In fact, I'd probably argue the gap has probably gotten bigger between Green Bay and Minnesota by the sheer fact that Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta.

[SteelKing728]

20 hours ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

GB had a far better quarterback for the last 30 years.  Unless Caleb is a bust (or we ruin him, which I admit we are very capable of doing), the days of Green Bay having a better QB should soon be a memory.  That makes a big difference.

I really hope Green Bay gives Jordan Love a massive contract. I'll leave it at that, and you can bookmark this post!

[beekay414]

lol

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, SteelKing728 said:

I really hope Green Bay gives Jordan Love a massive contract. I'll leave it at that, and you can bookmark this post!

Unfortunately, Webby locked the last Jordan Love thread...

EDIT: Some of those receipts though...

[CasperX22]

On 4/5/2024 at 11:07 PM, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

GB had a far better quarterback for the last 30 years.  Unless Caleb is a bust (or we ruin him, which I admit we are very capable of doing), the days of Green Bay having a better QB should soon be a memory.  That makes a big difference.

Chicago has a history of betting on the wrong QB.  I would worry about Caleb not being complete 💩 before worrying about how he stacks up against Love.  I think the real winner is whoever winds up with Drake Maye anyway.

[sparky151]

No NFC team needs a top 16 QB to contend for a playoff spot. The QB balance between the AFC and NFC is heavily skewed toward the former. 

[vegas492]

On 4/5/2024 at 10:07 PM, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

GB had a far better quarterback for the last 30 years.  Unless Caleb is a bust (or we ruin him, which I admit we are very capable of doing), the days of Green Bay having a better QB should soon be a memory.  That makes a big difference.

If you could actually sit Caleb for two years, I'd agree with you.  I feel like he is almost certainly a "hit" at QB if he sits for at least a year, maybe year and a half.  Let the kid learn from someone.

I feel like if he starts right away, it's like 55/45 bust to hit rate for him.  And I know he's going to start right away because they tried to build that roster to compete now.  Not in two years.

I'd worry about how much that NIL money is going to affect Caleb.  (And this isn't just against him, I'd worry about any QB going first overall that already had 10-20M in the bank.)

On GB's side....Love was just so raw coming out that he stood almost a zero % change of being successful if he had to play right away.  In the regard, Williams is much farther along in my book.

Long way of saying....we shall see if the Bears can actually develop a QB to compete in the division.  If you look at all the drafted QB's in that position, very few have hit.  Vikes haven't hit on one since what, Culpepper?  Lions missed on one, then hit on Stafford.  GB hit on two, Rodgers and probably Love.  Bears haven't hit on one yet.

And there's a lot of picks there that busted out.  One hit as a starter right away, Stafford.  Two hit because they they sat and learned for a while.

Food for thought.

[Louis Friend]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

And there's a lot of picks there that busted out.  One hit as a starter right away, Stafford.  Two hit because they they sat and learned for a while.

If we are being honest, Stafford missed 19 games his first two seasons due to injuries. He really didn’t break out until year 3. 

#1 overall picks get drafted first because they are good but they also go to the worst teams. Very few #1 pick QBs actually have sustained success or extended playoff success. In the last 20 years, only Eli and Stafford were #1 overall picks at QB who won a Super Bowl. Cam Newton, Joe Burrow and Jared Goff got there. There are more Jamarcus Russells, Kyler Murrays, Jameis Winstons, Baker Mayfields, Andrew Lucks, Sam Bradford, Trevor Lawrences, etc. 

Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson types go to better situations and have better teams around them with stable coaches that lead to better success long term. That’s not to say to avoid QBs at #1 overall, but let’s temper expectations.