Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2024 (All Up)

[THE DUKE]

Eagles were my clear number 1, but i'm also not that high on Fautanu.

[Daniel]

I probably would have had the Eagles at 1 myself, but the Steelers killed it too.

[ramssuperbowl99]

21 hours ago, Daniel said:

I liked the Cards draft, but I think I would have had them a little lower.  They had a ton of capital and top picks, so they should have come away with a haul.

I'm curious @goldfishwars have you taken your rankings and done any stats on how much draft capital corresponds to where they end up?

There definitely should be some positive correlation, but it'd be interesting if we think the r2 would be like 0.3 or 0.7, or what it should be in an "ideal ranking".

[Jeezla]

My only gripe is calling people like Peyton Wilson and Quinyon "long". They are tall for their positions, but they have short arms,  so I wouldn't call them "lengthy". Yes, I'm a nitpick. You need 33" arms at LB and 32.5" at CB to be "lengthy".

Nitpicky gripe aside, awesome job,  and this is the best content on the site. 

Edited May 10 by Jeezla

[Wyld Stallyns]

On 5/5/2024 at 4:05 AM, goldfishwars said:

14. Indianapolis Colts

This Class In One Sentence:

A little top-heavy, but a clear indication the Colts want to get faster

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2024)

CB, WR, TE, EDGE, DL, S, OT

Selections

15. Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA

52. Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas

79. Matt Goncalves | OL | Pittsburgh

117. Tanor Bortolini | OC | Wisconsin

142. Anthony Gould | WR | Oregon State

151. Jaylon Carlies | S | Missouri

164. Jaylin Simpson | S | Auburn

234. Jonah Laulu | EDGE | Oklahoma

Best Pick

Laiatu Latu - One of the most skilled pass-rushers to come out in years. He always has a rush plan, he can counter off counters and string whole rush sequences together. He does lack top-tier power, and his contact balance isn’t great at times. He does have a worrying injury history, one that could cut his playing career short so this isn't a selection without some risk. But it is a risk worth taking at 15.

Worst Pick

It’s probably more what they didn’t do, which was invest at cornerback – unless they see Jaylin Simpson as more corner than safety. After not spending there in free agency, it was expected to get a close look high up in the draft with only a young crop of promising players on the roster. Perhaps that was earmarked as a second-round concern and then decided they couldn’t overlook AD Mitchell.

Overall

I think Ballard will be happy with his work, as he usually is. The first two picks are great, but expectations should be tempered a little by the risks of each. If both hit, that could be huge for Indy. And I know he’s getting criticism for his high self-opinion after years of limited on-field success there – but I do think Ballard is one of the better team builders in the league. He has too much on his plate with a brain-drained owner - but he always has a pre-draft plan, and this year it was speed in whatever physical package it came in.

It was a slight surprise to see AD Mitchell available at 52, and only 'slight' because there were reports of character concerns and others surrounding his diabetic condition. But he has genuine X-receiver upside and an exceptional athletic profile. He’s smooth as butter out there, so much you don't notice the flat speed he has to rip a defense off even if he was not used that way at Texas. There are statistical red flags, notably low in career yards per route run which can be a sticky stat for NFL receivers. So that’s something to watch out for.

I quite like the double-dip at the offensive line, which was a bigger concern internally than externally. Matt Goncalves was a little off the radar due to a toe injury keeping him out of the draft spotlight. But he was a well-liked prospect as a powerful swing tackle, who might be able to kick inside. I think I still liked other options available at that spot. Bortolini put himself on the map with a decent Senior Bowl showing and a crazy workout at the Combine. Linemen with athletic profiles like that usually find a way into playing time, and I presume he’ll be good insurance for Ryan Kelly whose contract runs out in 2024.

Of the four remaining selections, Carlies and Laulu were off my radar. The Anthony Gould selection, I would imagine, was made with one eye on the new kick-return rules. He’s rapid and tiny. Jaylin Simpson is another blazer and big-time athletic tester, so I see the appeal from that perspective. He’s a versatile player, but he’s got a wire-thin frame. I’m not sure what was going on with the food at Auburn, was it bad? Those DBs look starved.

You left out Micah Abraham/Marshall 6-201 , a CB and Simpson is going to be moved to CB as well. But I get the point you meant about not taking a CB. Ballard really like Dallis Flowers, Juju Brents and Jaylon Jones at the top of the depth chart at Outside CB. Once you get to where the Colts picked at 46 (traded down to 52) the remaining CBs were just going to be young inexperienced CBs who might not crack the starting depth chart anyways. 

[Soko]

48 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

My only gripe is calling people like Peyton Wilson and Quinyon "long". They are tall for their positions, but they have short arms,  so I wouldn't call them "lengthy". Yes, I'm a nitpick. You need 33" arms at LB and 32.5" at CB to be "lengthy".

Nitpicky gripe aside, awesome job,  and this is the best content on the site. 

I didn’t think of it when reading the posts, but yeah Mitchell and Wilson always, just visually, looked like they had shorter arms. Wiggins too. They have good height for their positions, but they’re not like some of these other guys out here. Matters less for Wilson, I suppose.

Realistically, that’s probably “normal” arm length for us, lol. Just shorter by their standards.

[TankWilliams]

14 hours ago, Sugashane said:

To be fair, I have more questions on Flubby as a HC than I do on Poles as a GM.

IF Eberflus flops (which I hope he becomes a hell of a HC as he showed some real leadership ability last season, but we will see) then I hope they give a blank check to Ben Johnson. Bears made the most important pick in their last several decades, and I see no one better to develop Williams if the Bears are looking for a new staff in 2025.

I can understand why people will question Eberflus, especially after the first 4 games last year, but the team was absolutely a different team after that, especially after the addition of Sweat.  At the end of the season, I was on board with getting rid of Flus if it meant we got Harbaugh, but in the end I wasn't upset that he was retained, and I don't think people who hate on him are looking at how the Bears played past the first 4 games of last season.  It doesn't mean he's a sure bet, but he's not the weakness that everyone this offseason has wanted to call him.  

[Xenos]

I’m growing on the Alt pick as more news comes out about his willingness to switch to RT even before the draft happened. Certain pundits also feel that he’ll make the transition seamlessly because of how well he quickly moved from QB and TE to LT. Still using the #5 on a RT is going to take some getting used to after years of viewing the value of that position in a certain way. 
 

I’m still very puzzled by the Still pick in the 5th round when Hunter Nourzard was right there or a better slot CB prospect. It’s the only one where the pick was so drastically different from the consensus board. Broken record but our biggest weakness OL wise was in the interior, especially at Center, and not even drafting one in such a deep draft is probably my biggest gripe so far. 

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

Great reads as always! Well done!

[PossibleCabbage]

I think the one I disagree with you the most on is the Bears draft, which is probably a function of using different grading criteria.  But for my money a draft in which:
- You make only five picks
- You end up having fewer picks next year.
- You draft a punter

cannot be a great draft.  I would have the Bears closer to 15-17 personally.  I think people are investing too much confidence on their top 2 picks being good in their read on the class overall, but if we're just doing a "assume the top two picks are good"  why is the Bears draft better than the Vikings draft, the Commanders draft, or the Cardinals draft?  We' re ignoring the downside of "having very few picks" is that no draft prospect, whether he's a top 10 pick or Mr. Irrelevant has an especially high chance of being a great NFL player.  If in 3 years Bears ended up with the 14th best QB in the NFL to pair with the 23rd best WR in the NFL, I'm not sure that we think this draft is so great.

[RuskieTitan]

These Steeler homers are out of control.

[onejayhawk]

20 hours ago, TankWilliams said:

Funny, after opting not to fire Matt Eberflus everyone told me the Bears had the worst GM in the league

What can you say?

Poles came up through the scouting ranks of some midwestern team with an arrowhead on their helmet. Maybe he just knows drafts. 

That said, I'm guessing not. It may have taken some time to settle in but he's comfortable now.

[ramssuperbowl99]

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I would have the Bears closer to 15-17 personally.

The Broncos are 18 on this list. Using your criteria:

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

- You make only five picks

The Broncos made 2 picks in the top 100 and only had 7 picks total, and number 7 was the second to last pick in the entire draft. Similarly small haul.

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

- You end up having fewer picks next year.

The Bears have 8 picks in 2025 and the Broncos have 7.

3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

- You draft a punter

 

I also like efficiency but let's be reasonable here.

Edited May 10 by ramssuperbowl99

[ramssuperbowl99]

33 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

What can you say?

Poles came up through the scouting ranks of some midwestern team with an arrowhead on their helmet. Maybe he just knows drafts. 

That said, I'm guessing not. It may have taken some time to settle in but he's comfortable now.

I think Chicago should be one of the favorites to be high on this list next year.

Every year we see the same theme, teams that made bad decisions earlier pick near the top, have massive needs they can't address in FA, and pick a guy in the 1st round to plug a hole. Then, the Eagles/Steelers/Ravens/Pats/Packers take whoever is left because they didn't have any urgent needs. And they're good players in a good situation so they develop, which means those teams don't have needs, and the cycle repeats.

I bet they're picking in the 16-24 range so BPA is going to be a top 10-ish guy when 18 QB go in the 1st round again, and they have the Panthers pick plus their own in the 2nd so they can find pass rush or OL or whatever really easily in either spot.

Same thing you see in personal finance, rich people make better decisions with their money.

[onejayhawk]

15 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I think Chicago should be one of the favorites to be high on this list next year.

I think that is stone crazy. 

Missing the playoffs, maybe. Fewer than five wins, no way. The offense won't get worse and the defense should be much better.