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Jaguars extend QB Trevor Lawrence (5 years, $275M, $200M gtd)


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31 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Why is he not in that echelon though?

Actually watching him...i'd take him easily among that group.

So on a certain level, fans are almost always going to pull this card to defend the savior of their franchise, as long as he's not Zach Wilson bad. I was a humongous Eli homer in this board's heyday. I have thousands of posts dedicated to proving he was not singlehandedly carried by the defense in the first SB run, that if you watched the games in 2010 he was super unlucky with tipped passes becoming INTs, etc. So while we were right about everything, had the Chargers decided to make Eli the top-paid QB after 2008  we'd trash the hell out of their fanbase and jerk off to Philip Rivers superior passer rating (with tears in our eyes).

What I really miss about the old NFL? Some QBs used to get at least 5 years to figure it out and sometimes they did. Sucks that the cap ruined the careers of many late bloomers. Just off the top of my head, Terry Bradshaw, Jim Hart, Steve Barrkowski, and Phil Simms are all franchise icons who would've been cut prematurely in 2024.

Edited by redsoxsuck05
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52 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Why is he not in that echelon though?

Actually watching him...i'd take him easily among that group.

Stats, accolades, advanced metrics, postseason success, virtually any measurable way you can gauge QB success. Which ways is he in the top tier of non-Mahomes QBs, if not all those? Just eye test?

I’d say he was outplayed by 13 QBs last year, and that’s excluding injured Burrow, injured Cousins, injured Rodgers, regression/hangover from Hurts, and a down year/injured year from Herbert. He was closer to Carr and Baker than he was Allen or Lamar (and they both outplayed him statistically, too).

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Lawrence is just a few notches above a game manager at this point.   Thats quite the contract for a guy who has one full year of clearly above average play.

Just goes back to what I said in the Goff thread....not all "franchise QBs" are created equal, but they all get paid like they are, and its completely ridiculous.

Good for Trevor, but the QB market is pretty laughable.

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My God , Jerry Jones is an idiot. Unless his master plan is to let Dak walk after another failed/wasted season? It's honestly what I believe is the plan.

I mean if Lawrence and his resume is supposedly worth $55M, WTF is Daks agent going to be asking for?

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I think it's pretty fair to say that if you like your current QB this is what it's going to take to retain them long term. I think this contract is probably a year premature but I'm not at all surprised about the money.

Jordan Love's extension won't be much more than this. Dak will probably approach 60 aav. Tua will probably be around 55 and a big mistake.

Stroud will be the really interesting one right now. It's still a couple of years away, the cap will have increased but it's also possible that all of these yuge contracts look terrible by then and deflate the market a little bit. If he continues to rise he could make 55-70. Yuge potential variance.

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9 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

We generally agree on QBs once the sample is decent, which is why I'm surprised we don't here.

I've only seen him live once but between all the London, Thursday nights, and just random games I've watched more of the Jags than I'd like to admit and the guy looks good. He doesn't run around in a panic under pressure all the time, he keeps his eyes down field. He can make every throw, his accuracy is excellent. He has shown the ability to manipulate the pocket, step up in the pocket, and even wait/invite the pressure to get a 1:1 matchup. He's really quick and knows how to scramble for first downs.

I realize his stats are bad, but he's shown absolutely everything during games and when stuff goes wrong it's not silly donkey mistakes like Daniel Jones. If he never improves statistically, I will be completely mystified as to why.

I see him right now and he’s Vinny Testeverde. Incredible physical tools, clearly a 10+ year starter, and yet a propensity to turn it over at a rather alarming rate.

It’s not to say I think he’s bad or that he won’t reach that potential, but up to this point he’s been average, and his metrics against good teams show a disparity, especially for a player who plays in a relatively bad division.

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10 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

We generally agree on QBs once the sample is decent, which is why I'm surprised we don't here.

I’m not even sure we disagree on him as a quarterback here, I think we disagree on when to sign him. He’s still unbelievably young and has all the potential in the world.

However, when you look at how many games he’s played, age stops to matter as much and you start to bet on a series of outliers that occur after a ~36-45 game sample size. 

10 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I've only seen him live once but between all the London, Thursday nights, and just random games I've watched more of the Jags than I'd like to admit and the guy looks good. He doesn't run around in a panic under pressure all the time, he keeps his eyes down field. He can make every throw, his accuracy is excellent. He has shown the ability to manipulate the pocket, step up in the pocket, and even wait/invite the pressure to get a 1:1 matchup. He's really quick and knows how to scramble for first downs.

I realize his stats are bad, but he's shown absolutely everything during games and when stuff goes wrong it's not silly donkey mistakes like Daniel Jones. If he never improves statistically, I will be completely mystified as to why.

I think it’s reasonable to say that he was put in a historically bad situation and then had a nice, albeit largely overrated 2nd season, then looked solid until an injury occurred in his third season, and that warrants going all in. Make no mistake, I’m not crucifying the Jaguars here for it.

However, I do see a guy who has a flat out alarming rate of turnovers between his interceptions and shocking fumble issues and struggles against quality opponents, and a guy who no longer has a small sample size.

I would have made him play out year 4 then either figured out an exit plan after Year 6 with a franchise tag (perhaps even a trade after this year) or backed up the Brinks truck and unashamedly written him a blank check, shrugged and said that I was glad he proved it.

My issue is that I don’t think he warrants this based upon his play to THIS POINT, and that they weren’t under the gun to extend him. I believe they had plenty of time to make this decision and didn’t need to do it.

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7 hours ago, Soko said:

EDIT: And yeah, you’re going to have to show how a 29 year old QB is a depreciated asset. Legit franchise QBs don’t usually fall off at that age. Off the top of my head, Russ is the only example of that really happening, and even then he had one of his best seasons at 32. Matt Ryan had his two best seasons at 31 and 33. Stafford had one of his best seasons and won a SB at 33. Cousins has been playing well past 32. One of Eli’s best seasons was at 35. Alex Smith’s most productive season was at 33. Brees played well until his late 30s. Peyton played well into his late 30s. Rodgers did. Brady did. Ben did. Rivers did. The ones that don’t last are the runners, for the most part. Hardly any legitimately good QBs “age out” at 29-32. Teams know this, which is why older QBs are still getting big deals at that age. This idea that Baker and Goff got less because they’re older, doesn’t jive.

Which QB ate you referring to?

The 1 that a team traded away for an older QB.  Thst had to attached a pick onto the deal to get to happen.

Or the QB that was traded for a couple of 2nd round picks, was in competition with Sam Darnold to be a starter.  Then went to another team for part of a season, hits FA and the best deal they could get was a 1 year $4M contract.  Seems like the league set the value on that QB and those the next contract was reflective of that.

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Trevor Lawrence went from being overhyped coming into the league, to being underrated after year 3.  He led the Jaguars to an 8-3 record and the #1 seed in the AFC before being injured last year.  If I were the owner of their team, I would have waited until the end of the 2024 season to sign him to a deal, but I have no problem with them paying him this much.  He has as good of a chance as anyone (outside of Mahomes) to make it worth signing him to this contract. 

For a team that hasn't always been seen as the classiest in the league, I think they are sending the right message with this deal.  If you have one of the better QB's in the league, what are you telling him if you say "we aren't willing to pay you money that is at or very near the top of the scale?"  The Jaguars did their part.  Now they can say "the ball is in your court.  Now you have to go out and prove we were right for believing in you."  Trevor Lawrence is one of a handful of quarterbacks in the league who can actually do that.  They were right to pay him.

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