Watching the other five 2024 1st round rookie QB's....

[PrplChilPill]

1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

Tom Brady: “I think it’s just a tragedy that we’re forcing these rookies to play early. But the reality is the only reason why they are is that we’ve dumbed the game down, which has allowed them to play.”

“There used to be college programs, now, there are college teams. You’re no longer learning a program, you’re learning a playbook. For five years, I got to learn how to drop-back pass, to read defenses, to read coverages, to be coached. I had to learn from being seventh quarterback on the depth chart to moving up to third to ultimately being a starter. I had to learn all those things in college. That was development.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/tom-brady-bemoans-game-being-dumbed-down-for-rookie-quarterbacks

Back in my day.....

[swede700]

10 hours ago, PrplChilPill said:

Back in my day.....

And even there were significant issues in college play "back in his day." 

[Worm Guts]

Brady's ascension was pretty rare even in his day.  I think he had a pretty unique experience.

[swede700]

1 hour ago, Worm Guts said:

Brady's ascension was pretty rare even in his day.  I think he had a pretty unique experience.

It certainly was unique...but then again, he was competing with the likes of Drew Henson.  And really, Brady in college wasn't a good QB. 

Edited August 21 by swede700

[swede700]

 

[SteelKing728]

Good luck with that.

[SemperFeist]

I think Nix will do ok. He’s a solid quarterback. 

I just never saw him as a 1st rounder. Personally, I think his ceiling is in that 10-15 range. He’ll be a good starter, but not a franchise level guy. 

As Dan Orlovsky says, “there are quarterbacks you win because of, and quarterbacks you win with”. I don’t see Nix being a quarterback you win because of, but they can probably win with him. Just maybe not in that division. 

[PrplChilPill]

36 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

I think Nix will do ok. He’s a solid quarterback. 

I just never saw him as a 1st rounder. Personally, I think his ceiling is in that 10-15 range. He’ll be a good starter, but not a franchise level guy. 

As Dan Orlovsky says, “there are quarterbacks you win because of, and quarterbacks you win with”. I don’t see Nix being a quarterback you win because of, but they can probably win with him. Just maybe not in that division. 

I like Nix, but agree he's likely never a top QB.... But I do think they can win with him, but not anytime soon with that roster. And not beating KC unless something bad happens there

[vike daddy]

@Dbrog24: 

"I mean Nix was a forgone conclusion after the Packers game. Stidham played pretty bad for almost 2 full quarters and Wilson couldn't run the offense and had losses on multiple plays. Meanwhile Bo again showed ability to lead drives, even after holding penalties and 3rd and longs and a surprising ability with his legs."

"Dude is as advertised supercomputer already going through progressions on offense and reading defenses pre-snap. It's honestly impressive and absolutely translates to the NFL game that is often in shell formation to prevent over the top stuff...doesn't really matter if it's preseason or not. Will he face adversity? Yes of course, but he seems to have the brain to adapt as other coaches do. He's showing skills the other rookie QBs aren't in preseason and that's honestly pretty surprising to me."

"I will say the knock I see with him is he has some foot issues with his form (though he's acknowledged this in press conferences) and probably because of this, can throw low at times. His accuracy is as advertised though most of the time and his ability to anticipate throw is pretty clear. There's not a lot of negative to say of him right now."

[JDBrocks]

I've always liked Nix, but he does have a limited ceiling. I think he could have an Andy Dalton/Ryan Tannehill level career, with some top 10ish seasons sprinkled in and being just good enough to not need a QB, but never going to stop you from wondering what could be with a better one. A system like O'Connell's probably would have elevated him some. I'm rooting for him to succeed, in spite of Payton.

[Dbrog24]

Thanks for the shoutout @vike daddy

I also watched every snap of the half that Caleb played vs the Bengals and wow...did you guys see this? I'll preface by saying I'm pretty sure Caleb will largely improve but my god was it rough to watch and he got badly outplayed by his backup Bagent. Williams reminded me largely of current Russ with a bunch of bailouts on clean pockets but with poor accuracy (threw a bunch of balls over guys heads or behind them) and decision making. It led to a bunch of 3rd and longs and really the only 2 plays that he had that were a first down as a result of him was one amazing turnaround off balance 20-30 yarder and another where he scrambled a bunch and ran for the TD. I would feel absolutely fearful if that's what was being relied on. The talent is clear but wow he's got a surprisingly long way to go if he's going to be a star. Just thought I'd bring it up since they are in your division.

[vike daddy]

@madmike77 @Sugashane @dll2000 @SodeeWater_Cheezburger @beardown3231,

 

what do you think of @Dbrog24's statement above on Caleb Williams' performance?

[dll2000]

3 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

@madmike77 @Sugashane @dll2000 @SodeeWater_Cheezburger @beardown3231,

 

what do you think of @Dbrog24's statement above on Caleb Williams' performance?

I don't think his accuracy is an issue.  I am not seeing that in preseason snaps or what I am hearing from practice or his college tape.  Opposite.  He pretty much puts ball where he wants to put it.  He just doesn't always know where to go with the ball quickly yet.   That is all rookies.  

As this guy says his talent is evident to all.  It is one thing to have one highlight.  Anyone can have one or two highlights.  But Caleb has many already in limited snaps.  He has them in practice too.  His college game tape is full of them.  At some point routine big plays are not an accident or luck.  

He is a rookie learning a scheme that is radically different from one he had in college.  There is a learning curve as there would be for anyone in same situation.  Also, a large part of his game is extending plays.  That isn't going to change.  He emulates Rodgers game as that was his boyhood hero.   That gives you a lot of boom and bust.  But explosive plays go a long way to winning football games as well.   They are game changers.  

I will also say preseason can be misleading  Guys can look amazing in preseason (Zack Wilson) and suck in regular season.  And suck early (Peyton Manning and Mahomes) and turn out awesome.  

There are many factors that go into long term QB success - talent, work ethic, intelligence, processing, coaching, team, desire.

I think from early returns Caleb is checking many of those boxes from his end.  Doesn't mean it won't be a roller coaster ride.  I recall in Burrow's SB year he threw 3 consecutive ints to a terrible Bears team and looked generally awful.   

I think he would be a near perfect prospect aside from his height.   He is a little on short side at 6'1 in a land of giants.  That can effect your sight lines within 3 - 4 yards of the linemen and also result in more batted balls.

I am happy with both the player and where he is at at this point.  I am super happy he has gotten majority of reps and been groomed from day 1 to be the starter.  In that sense he is much farther along than most of other rookie QBs whose teams decided to take a watch and learn approach.  Both ways can work.  

A sharp departure from way Bears handled Trubisky and Fields.  I prefer you learn by doing unless you have zero talent around QB as that can be detrimental to them mentally and encourage bad habits.

 

 

[Dbrog24]

Really good snap by snap breakdown on Bears forum that echoes much of what I saw

@Ty21:

"I’ll keep doing my posthumous Caleb analysis, probably just for my own enjoyment. 
-first throw sailed over Allen, might’ve been a tough 5 yard snag anyway since the defender was there. 
-TE delayed screen Caleb was off the money again, kinda a weird pass behind himself anyway. The defense may not account for it in the future

-good pocket presence and movement, throwaway. 
-decent zip on a short route to Everett, not past the sticks though lol. downs
-quick hitch to Kmet for about 8. Take that every time. 
-Newton made a play on the ball to break up a slant to DJ. DJ wasn’t open but he was the only player of the field even close to being close to open. 
-dump off to Blasingame. Didn’t go anywhere. Like being okay with dump offs. I said all through the fields years with an offensive line like that and a weak wr corps, dumping off should be a focal point of the passing game 

-quicker play to Everett for about 7. Like seeing a qb see it and do it. instead of bouncing in the pocket for 14 seconds 
-Quick pass to Nsimba. I’m totally a fan of these quick dinkers. Also, Nsimba playing this early suggests good things for him. 
-ooh **** the desperation heave while getting hit is gonna get picked a lot of the time. Didn’t like that at all. Hope they review that and say maybe dont do the hero throw like that 

-deep ball to Rome totally makes up for it. Thats gonna sell tickets. I couldn’t hit that throw if you gave me ten tries. 
-beautiful miracle play to Rome in the corner, but Rome with the worst sideline awareness I’ve seen in a while lol. 
-throw away. Had some throws he either didn’t see or go for 

-scramble td. Nothing the defense could’ve done after he dramatically rolled left. 
 

So overall. Definite flashes of rookie. A few throws I didn’t like at all. But also a few flashes of brilliance."

Edited August 22 by Dbrog24

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, vike daddy said:

@madmike77 @Sugashane @dll2000 @SodeeWater_Cheezburger @beardown3231,

 

what do you think of @Dbrog24's statement above on Caleb Williams' performance?

I'd disagree pretty strongly. Looks like an assessment made while only watching live and already having some preconceived notions that were going to dictate the interpretation of each play.

 

Pass 1 is a rollout but he still had to throw over his LT, because Jones couldn't seal the EMLOS and Herbert was not able to chip until the throw was already being thrown. Throw was too high for sure but what should have been a dart had to be lobbed.

Pass 2 he threw it down and away to protect Everett after there was immediate pressure, (Everett was going to get absolutely blown up by a LB that was already crashing down). I get it, but I would have liked for him to throw to Moore by the sideline to get 3-5 yards and let him get out of bounds.

Pass 3 he threw it away after sitting in the pocket. No All22 but I couldn't find anyone open. Don't play hero and take an unnecessary hit here, I'd take the intentional grounding over him getting smoked in the preseason. Play design was odd though, on 3rd and 10 you run two flats at about the LOS and then all 3 other routes are like 15-25 yards downfield, but no one went to the middle of the field? Seemed like a weird design.

Pass 4 was a quick hit, I still don't understand why any stop route goes 2 yards short of the LOS on 3rd down but Bears had 2 guys sit down short of the sticks. Glad to see the Bears hold to their traditions. 

Pass 5 was a good quick dart to Kmet. Fit it into a small window.

Pass 6 was a poor pass. Moore did nothing to gain separation and fell away from the ball, but the ball also needed to lead him more. RB making his little stop route also brought the MIKE toward the ball path, which if this was really a quick hit design for Moore then that is a poor design for the RB as well. I think the bulk of the issue was placement on that pass though.

Pass 7 was a screen. Hit the RB in the numbers. Nothing special but nothing wrong on a routine play.

Pass 7 was a short dart to Everett for like 7 on 3rd and 21. Nothing wrong with it, its preseason and you are just trying to get a better spot to kick from. Led to points, so it was a smart throw.

Pass 8 was a good throw on a stop route that led to YAC. Really quick decision.

Pass 9 was a really bad throw. Did great at evading the pressure and then looked like he threw between two guys, like he saw both and didn't fully commit to either one. Did he overthrow Everett or was he too greedy and underthrew Rome? IDK for sure, but I think he just threw off a poor base and overthrew Everett.

Pass 10 was incredible.

Pass 11 was a great throw. He shook an ublocked EDGE twice and then threw a dart to the corner of the endzone, and Rome was STANDING out of bounds because he didn't realize the out of bounds area wasn't painted. Dumb rookie mistake on Rome, but the throw was beautiful.

Pass 12: He threw it away while in the red zone, which is the smart play here. I would have liked to see the fade to Rome on the right side, but that is a lot of time for the ball to sit in the air when the first 3 reads are on the left. IDK if Mahomes could make the reads left and still throw a back shoulder there, but I know I don't want Williams to. Everett sitting down at the 2 would have been probably the best throw, but he started drifting away from WIlliams when pressure was coming from the left. So likely couldn't have mad the throw. 

Run 1 - Williams keeps looking downfield as he evades a few guys and runs in for a TD, so Rome's mental blunder didn't even hurt the team.

 

As for the claim he kept bailing from clean pockets, that is just blatantly false. They did rollouts, he stepped up into the pocket several times, made several quick throws before there was any pressure whatsoever, evaded multiple sacks, and did run out when they rushed 7 after Rome stood out of bounds. The one where he rolled out and threw the ridiculous pass to Rome was the closest he came to "bailing from a clean pocket," but that would still be incorrect because Jones took the EDGE 10 yards deep and had him on the ground, so there was no containment and all pressure would come from the right side. He didn't bail from a clean pocket once, but this will likely be a parroted narrative anyway.

The "bunch of 3rd and longs" is just false as well. He had 1 3rd and long after two incomplete (his first 2 passes). He was sacked and Jenkins had a penalty that put them in 3rd and long, which neither was due to a poor decision or throw. The sack was a coverage sack, and there were zero hot routes to turn to. Again there was no one in the middle of the field, which is an issue I constantly had with Getsy. He then scored on 3rd and goal after Rome was standing out of bounds on what should have been a touchdown pass. And only 2 of the throws were outright inaccurate, you can count 3 if you think he was behind Everett rather than protecting him from getting crushed), so that claim was also false.