ramssuperbowl99 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) 1 hour ago, Refugee said: I joke about asking who ended 2015 Cousins’ season (spoiler alert, it was the Pack, in a route, complete *** whoopin’, you like that?!?) but think it’s a fairly salient point. First of all, I agree with your take. If you have to reach back to cherry pick statistical windows, it means it’s a relatively rare accomplishment. Yeah the rarity of the accomplishment is the important point, because the context here is the size of the sample we're dealing with. It's not cherry picking necessarily to look at those top windows and say that it's possible Love still fits in with the overall group, but the amount of total performances just mean it's less likely purely based on the numbers (and should be reduced substantially more through his film, which is irritatingly good). And when the overall probability of a bad outcome is fairly small, that means the sample used to generate the conclusion is plenty big enough. So I disagree with the "small sample size" mantra being repeated here. 1 hour ago, Refugee said: More importantly, if you compare two guys with those stats and one showed up in the playoffs and one crumbled, well that’s more than a tiebreaker. It shows who was and is the better player. I grew up watching Eli Manning and Joe Flacco derp and PI their ways to rings, respectively, so to me it'll always be an n of 1 like any other game. Edited July 27 by ramssuperbowl99 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrscottso Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Guy had one decent season. But ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 While it’s not an enormous sample size, some people are acting like it was only 3-4 games or something. They also are missing a lot of context when they perseverate over the Games-2-thru-9 stretch. Literally his *entire* group of pass-catchers were either rookies or second-year players. Every single starter on offense except Jenkins was still on their rookie contracts. Aaron Jones was out for 3 of those games and questionable in 2 others. Bakhtiari missed all of them. Their active roster cap space allocated to offense at the time was last-place in the NFL by a country mile (37m-45m depending on if Jones was healthy). For context, each of the top-22 teams in the NFL for that stat had at least *double* the offensively-allocated cap money of GB. The next-lowest was NE at 49m. So he was dealing with a pretty big handicap, basically the entire season (though at least Jones did return to health). And he still managed to put together a strong offense eventually. & people are getting led astray by the junk stat known as AAV. His salary cap hits for the next 4 years are nowhere near 1st. They rank #14, #16, #14, & #9 among QB’s. AAV gets skewed by meaningless years at the tail end of contracts, where fake (nonguaranteed) money balloons and signifies the team will then be restructuring the player. People put together all these AAV rankings lists without Mahomes, yet if you took a snapshot look at Mahomes’ cap hits over the next 4 years, that would equate to an AAV of 58.0m. But because they are grouping in some additional *past* years of Mahomes (comparing apples & oranges) that drags the AAV down. & disregards any contract re-works Mahomes will likely do in the next 3-4yr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refugee Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I grew up watching Eli Manning and Joe Flacco derp and PI their ways to rings, respectively, so to me it'll always be an n of 1 like any other game. Fair, but I guarantee playoff performance stands out, or at the very least performance vs. good teams, when the front office is evaluating a player. It obviously stands out to the fans and for a player’s legacy. In the end titles are the only thing that are written in stone, though. Eli had some very good performances surrounded by very good teams. Flacco had a deep ball, a whole lot of good fortune, and one of the most elite defenses in NFL history. Call them what you want, but we all have to call them champs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 But if Love sits out and they dont pay him, they essentially said that their long term plan dont mean ****. The GM of course will pay love and will live or die by it. Rather than pick Love early, see some bright lights and say nah we were wrong, next. Its all in on Love or complete overhaul and everyone knows it And overhaul means the FO guys are gone. They are selling that Love needs a new deal as much as Love! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refugee Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 23 minutes ago, Malfatron said: But if Love sits out and they dont pay him, they essentially said that their long term plan dont mean ****. The GM of course will pay love and will live or die by it. Rather than pick Love early, see some bright lights and say nah we were wrong, next. Its all in on Love or complete overhaul and everyone knows it And overhaul means the FO guys are gone. They are selling that Love needs a new deal as much as Love! Love only sat because his deal was so close to done. He practiced in OTAs but once it came down to the contract being small details away, he sat out of precautionbut it wasn't really a leverage play. Of course the GM is tied to Love and has mutual interest in him working out. That was the case when he moved up in the draft to take a QB with Rodgers in the fold, just like Ted Thompson with Aaron or Wolf trading a FRP with Favre. They aren't giving Love his deal on a hope and prayer. They've seen him for the last 4 years and a season plus on the field including playoffs. They would not have let a HOFer walk out of the door if the didn't believe in Love and he's already proven them correct. Now, what level can he really take it to? Who knows, the last two guys set the bar to the very top. Even if Love doesn't reach that level but is a good QB, this is where the market is set. I think he can be more than that but we will have the next several years to see if that's the case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 minute ago, Refugee said: Love only sat because his deal was so close to done. He practiced in OTAs but once it came down to the contract being small details away, he sat out of precautionbut it wasn't really a leverage play. Of course the GM is tied to Love and has mutual interest in him working out. That was the case when he moved up in the draft to take a QB with Rodgers in the fold, just like Ted Thompson with Aaron or Wolf trading a FRP with Favre. They aren't giving Love his deal on a hope and prayer. They've seen him for the last 4 years and a season plus on the field including playoffs. They would not have let a HOFer walk out of the door if the didn't believe in Love and he's already proven them correct. Now, what level can he really take it to? Who knows, the last two guys set the bar to the very top. Even if Love doesn't reach that level but is a good QB, this is where the market is set. I think he can be more than that but we will have the next several years to see if that's the case. Yup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelKing728 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 22 hours ago, CWood21 said: Kinda my point. Right now, Dak knows that Dallas needs him more than he needs Dallas. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Dak has any desire to leave Dallas but if push came to shove, he's gonna go to the highest bidder. And extending guys like CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons but not re-signing Dak Prescott without a replacement in place seems like questionable decision making at best. It wouldn't be so bad though. Parsons and Lamb are top 5 at their positions. Signing them and moving on from Dak (tag and trade or let him walk and collect a comp pick) could keep Dallas competitive. Dak is a top 15 talent at his position. That's good enough to get your team a championship in my opinion, but he's going to want to be paid like a top 3 QB. That's problematic. Not trying to derail the thread. Green Bay isn't in that situation and can afford to pay Love. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 22 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said: It wouldn't be so bad though. Parsons and Lamb are top 5 at their positions. Signing them and moving on from Dak (tag and trade or let him walk and collect a comp pick) could keep Dallas competitive. From what I am seeing, Dak has a no trade and no tag clause. That option is not available. 2025, Dak has $40M in deadcap from void years. I think Dallas is either paying Dak close to $60M per year, or hoping that Trey Lance develops and will re-sign for cheap 1-2 years 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, squire12 said: From what I am seeing, Dak has a no trade and no tag clause. That option is not available. 2025, Dak has $40M in deadcap from void years. I think Dallas is either paying Dak close to $60M per year, or hoping that Trey Lance develops and will re-sign for cheap 1-2 years Contract details on Love are out and it's a similarly nasty cap hit on the back end, $74.2M on the last year of his deal and $34.7M already in void years. Credit Love's agent for setting that up, if he's unhappy all he has to do is not sign a contract extension and that's going to be an irritating situation. The team's gonna have to keep him happy. Edited July 28 by ramssuperbowl99 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 30 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Contract details on Love are out and it's a similarly nasty cap hit on the back end, $74.2M on the last year of his deal and $34.7M already in void years. Credit Love's agent for setting that up, if he's unhappy all he has to do is not sign a contract extension and that's going to be an irritating situation. The team's gonna have to keep him happy. The deal is clearly designed to be renegotiated prior to the final year, but that seems par for the course these days. GB now has Love signed at a very reasonable cap number for the next 4 years. The risk/reward for GB seems well worth it to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Trying to remember, is Dak the only one left? Purdy.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Purdy is an interesting situation. I am honestly curious how SF will handle him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 14 hours ago, mrscottso said: Guy had half a decent season. But ok. Had to fix that for you 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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