BDL Discussion Thread 2018

[DingoLadd]

Just now, Ragnarok said:

I watch a lot.  And read a ton of articles.

So you've been reading Darby has been good? 

[Ragnarok]

Just now, DingoLadd said:

So you've been reading Darby has been good? 

In some articles, especially the first couple weeks.  Not so much last week.

[bcb1213]

Idk who was messing with the spreadsheets but all my LB are gone 

[Scoundrel]

7 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Idk who was messing with the spreadsheets but all my LB are gone 

Are they playing against Orlando? Because Dingos were all gone in my game too. 

[SirA1]

11 hours ago, Ragnarok said:

After what Darby is doing to OBJ tonight, he finally gets BDL respect, right?

Mo Claiborne is the 9th ranked CB on PFF (not everyone's bag I know) but only gets respect from @Whicker his former owner.

[SirA1]

31 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Idk who was messing with the spreadsheets but all my LB are gone 

It looks like when you added the waivers something got thrown off. I'm going to restore the last update Rags did on Wednesday and I'll redo the waivers.

[Xmad]

35 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Idk who was messing with the spreadsheets but all my LB are gone 

Aside from Mosley it's probably for the best.

[RuskieTitan]

12 hours ago, Whicker said:

Week 6

Rome Eternals @ Ivory Coast Black Rhinos

@bcb1213 

[bcb1213]

 

@RuskieTitan just when you want to attack we juke you out.  Look at that rhino attention span 

[RuskieTitan]

4 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

@RuskieTitan just when you want to attack we juke you out.  Look at that rhino attention span 

That rhino was just bluffing. Khalil Mack and Myles Garrett won't be.

They have a message for Drew Brees:

[ny92mike]

3 hours ago, bcb1213 said:

Idk who was messing with the spreadsheets but all my LB are gone 

You can use the history editor and see when it was edited and by whom as well as revert those changes back.

[bcb1213]

2 hours ago, RuskieTitan said:

That rhino was just bluffing. Khalil Mack and Myles Garrett won't be.

They have a message for Drew Brees:

Ignorant.  Neither your players or team are from Russia. Drew is not impressed 

[ny92mike]

I'm working on a statistical grading system for positions excluding offensive line, because those stats aren't recorded.  I use a correlation process to the number of team wins to each stat line.  There are other variations using PF but over the years I've found Wins to work the best.  There is other correlation data that can be used, so rather than using total Wins and individual stat lines, the correlation data can be pulled from Total Wins and Team stat lines from a previous year.  Point being that this early in the season, the -3.8 correlation w/ INT is more significant using the end of season correlation numbers, it actual increases to roughly -55% and TD's jump into the +55% range.

For example, last weeks stat correlation data shows a direct correlation to the number of wins to the number of touchdowns. while showing a negative correlation to total team wins to that of Interceptions and sacks..makes sense right, more TDs equals more wins.  While more interceptions and sacks equal more losses.  As the season progresses along, these correlations change in value, some increasing some decreasing in value.  

Using quarterback as a sample in this.  The data used from ESPN (still debating on using NFL data, as that is what I've always used in the past) shows the following correlations to the total number of Wins.

Stat Line	Correl %
COMP	12.9%
ATT	10.8%
PCT	15.1%
YDS	18.9%
YDS/A	28.8%
LONG	1.4%
TD	31.9%
INT	-3.8%
SACK	-18.8%
RATE	28.6%
YDS/G	11.5%

Using some simple math, Actual Stat / Max stat within the stat line * correl stat line %.  I then sum the total of these adjusted stats to get a total.  Which is then used to rank each player.  

IMPORTANT NOTE:  Rushing yards is not calculated YET into the information below.  This ranking currently is only based on their passing.  This information also doesn't account for injuries, missed games, or previous years stats.  The stats are cumulative starting from week one to week 5.

MyRank	MyGrade	NFL Rank	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	INT	SACK	RATE	YDS/G
1	98.2%	1	Jared Goff, QB	LAR	120	166	72.3	1,727	10.4	70	12	4	6	119.7	345
2	96.4%	4	Drew Brees, QB	NO	148	190	77.9	1,658	8.73	62	11	0	8	122.3	332
3	94.5%	11	Patrick Mahomes, QB	KC	112	176	63.6	1,513	8.6	58	14	2	6	112.7	303
4	92.7%	12	Philip Rivers, QB	LAC	122	174	70.1	1,495	8.59	48	13	2	6	116.4	299
5	90.9%	18	Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB	TB	87	129	67.4	1,356	10.51	75	11	5	7	114.4	339
6	89.1%	2	Kirk Cousins, QB	MIN	161	226	71.2	1,688	7.47	75	11	2	14	105.1	338
7	87.3%	3	Ben Roethlisberger, QB	PIT	138	215	64.2	1,664	7.74	75	11	6	9	93.2	333
8	85.5%	7	Matt Ryan, QB	ATL	125	183	68.3	1,601	8.75	75	11	2	16	110.9	320
9	83.6%	13	Andrew Luck, QB	IND	163	245	66.5	1,491	6.09	42	12	5	10	90.7	298
10	81.8%	14	Andy Dalton, QB	CIN	123	187	65.8	1,445	7.73	49	12	7	9	94.9	289
11	80.0%	19	Tom Brady, QB	NE	121	179	67.6	1,259	7.03	55	12	6	6	96.1	252
12	78.2%	8	Aaron Rodgers, QB	GB	131	208	63	1,572	7.56	75	10	1	16	100.1	314
13	76.4%	15	Matthew Stafford, QB	DET	126	191	66	1,385	7.25	67	10	5	9	93.8	277
14	74.5%	5	Derek Carr, QB	OAK	144	202	71.3	1,641	8.12	66	7	8	11	90.4	328
15	72.7%	9	Joe Flacco, QB	BAL	139	227	61.2	1,550	6.83	71	8	3	11	87.8	310
16	70.9%	6	Deshaun Watson, QB	HOU	125	192	65.1	1,621	8.44	49	8	5	18	94.6	324
17	69.1%	10	Blake Bortles, QB	JAX	130	211	61.6	1,525	7.23	67	8	7	11	82.4	305
18	67.3%	16	Eli Manning, QB	NYG	134	187	71.7	1,381	7.39	40	6	3	16	96.6	276
19	65.5%	25	Mitchell Trubisky, QB	CHI	91	130	70	945	7.27	47	8	3	10	101.6	236
20	63.6%	20	Russell Wilson, QB	SEA	89	142	62.7	1,086	7.65	66	10	3	18	100.8	217
21	61.8%	27	Cam Newton, QB	CAR	85	130	65.4	883	6.79	51	7	3	7	93.2	221
22	60.0%	23	Ryan Tannehill, QB	MIA	85	129	65.9	972	7.54	75	8	5	11	92.9	194
23	58.2%	22	Alex Smith, QB	WSH	89	135	65.9	1,042	7.72	52	4	2	9	92.9	261
24	56.4%	26	Carson Wentz, QB	PHI	82	122	67.2	914	7.49	56	5	1	12	99.6	305
25	54.5%	17	Case Keenum, QB	DEN	122	192	63.5	1,365	7.11	43	5	7	13	78.1	273
26	52.7%	21	Sam Darnold, QB	NYJ	83	149	55.7	1,066	7.15	76	7	6	11	77.2	213
27	50.9%	28	Baker Mayfield, QB	CLE	63	107	58.9	838	7.83	59	3	3	8	81.4	279
28	49.1%	32	C.J. Beathard, QB	SF	57	91	62.6	647	7.11	82	4	4	5	80.2	216
29	47.3%	30	Jimmy Garoppolo, QB	SF	53	89	59.6	718	8.07	56	5	3	13	90	239
30	45.5%	24	Dak Prescott, QB	DAL	89	144	61.8	961	6.67	64	5	4	16	81.4	192
31	43.6%	43	Brock Osweiler, QB	MIA	4	5	80	35	7	11	1	0	0	135.4	35
32	41.8%	31	Marcus Mariota, QB	TEN	65	103	63.1	676	6.56	51	2	4	6	72.3	169
33	40.0%	34	Nick Foles, QB	PHI	54	82	65.9	451	5.5	50	1	1	5	78.9	226
34	38.2%	38	Jameis Winston, QB	TB	16	20	80	145	7.25	17	1	2	2	74	145
35	36.4%	36	Josh Rosen, QB	ARI	29	59	49.2	386	6.54	75	2	1	3	74.5	129
36	34.5%	35	Sam Bradford, QB	ARI	50	80	62.5	400	5	35	2	4	6	62.5	133
37	32.7%	37	Blaine Gabbert, QB	TEN	25	45	55.6	242	5.38	18	1	1	3	68.9	81
38	30.9%	29	Josh Allen, QB	BUF	65	122	53.3	748	6.13	57	2	5	19	60.4	150
39	29.1%	33	Tyrod Taylor, QB	CLE	41	84	48.8	462	5.5	47	2	2	13	63.7	154
40	27.3%	41	DeShone Kizer, QB	GB	4	7	57.1	55	7.86	29	0	1	2	42.9	55
41	25.5%	46	Matt Schaub, QB	ATL	5	7	71.4	20	2.86	9	0	0	0	74.1	10
42	23.6%	49	Taysom Hill, QB	NO	1	2	50	10	5	10	0	0	0	64.6	2
43	21.8%		Lamar Jackson, QB	BAL	1	5	20	24	4.8	24	0	0	1	47.1	5
44	20.0%	48	Matt Cassel, QB	DET	2	6	33.3	14	2.33	9	0	1	0	2.8	14
45	18.2%		Jacoby Brissett, QB	IND	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	39.6	0
46	16.4%	44	Nathan Peterman, QB	BUF	5	18	27.8	24	1.33	10	0	2	3	0	24

  

 

 

[ny92mike]

To provide a little more light on the system here is the running back ratings.  Again, remember this is just the current years stats and injuries are not factored in.

I'm not a fan of the correlation results for this because one of the more important stat lines, based on total year results is really skewed as it has Yrds per Attempt having a negative impact at -10.2%.  In the team correlation its +44%.  

Personally, I think we should use the team correlation data over the individual correlation as I think the numbers are much closer to what you'd expect them to be.

MyRank	MyGrade	NFL Rank	PLAYER	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	20+	TD	YDS/G	FUM	1DN
1	0.995	2	Todd Gurley II, RB	LAR	101	415	4.1	23	1	7	83	0	26
2	0.99	4	Kareem Hunt, RB	KC	93	376	4	45	2	4	75.2	0	21
3	0.985	13	Alvin Kamara, RB	NO	62	299	4.8	49	1	5	59.8	0	21
4	0.98	6	Carlos Hyde, RB	CLE	100	348	3.5	22	1	5	69.6	1	19
5	0.976	9	Marshawn Lynch, RB	OAK	77	331	4.3	52	1	3	66.2	0	18
6	0.971	3	Isaiah Crowell, RB	NYJ	57	390	6.8	77	4	5	78	0	14
7	0.966	8	Melvin Gordon, RB	LAC	73	334	4.6	34	4	3	66.8	0	16
8	0.961	14	Sony Michel, RB	NE	67	294	4.4	34	2	2	73.5	0	17
9	0.956	20	Royce Freeman, RB	DEN	49	250	5.1	24	1	3	50	0	17
10	0.951	12	Saquon Barkley, RB	NYG	71	308	4.3	68	5	3	61.6	0	15
11	0.946		David Johnson, RB	ARI	74	242	3.3	21	1	4	48.4	1	14
12	0.941	17	Joe Mixon, RB	CIN	60	272	4.5	31	3	1	90.7	0	11
13	0.937	28	Jordan Howard, RB	CHI	64	203	3.2	17	0	1	50.8	0	14
14	0.932	11	Phillip Lindsay, RB	DEN	57	328	5.8	53	2	1	65.6	0	17
15	0.927	7	James Conner, RB	PIT	84	342	4.1	30	3	5	68.4	2	16
16	0.922	41	Giovani Bernard, RB	CIN	34	155	4.6	23	2	3	38.8	0	12
17	0.917	1	Ezekiel Elliott, RB	DAL	93	480	5.2	41	3	2	96	2	24
18	0.912	36	Mike Davis, RB	SEA	36	172	4.8	37	2	3	43	0	10
19	0.907	62	Javorius Allen, RB	BAL	34	96	2.8	17	0	3	19.2	0	9
20	0.902	16	Kerryon Johnson, RB	DET	50	286	5.7	32	3	1	57.2	0	13
21	0.898	5	Matt Breida, RB	SF	49	369	7.5	66	6	1	73.8	0	15
22	0.893		Mark Ingram II, RB	NO	16	53	3.3	9	0	2	53	0	5
23	0.888	32	Jamaal Williams, RB	GB	53	195	3.7	11	0	0	39	0	12
24	0.883	40	Alfred Blue, RB	HOU	49	162	3.3	17	0	1	32.4	0	9
25	0.878	50	Chris Ivory, RB	BUF	45	124	2.8	9	0	1	24.8	0	10
26	0.873	24	Lamar Miller, RB	HOU	58	225	3.9	31	1	0	56.3	0	8
27	0.868	33	Jay Ajayi, RB	PHI	45	184	4.1	20	1	3	46	1	11
28	0.863	15	Chris Carson, RB	SEA	64	293	4.6	24	2	1	73.3	1	12
29	0.859	42	Kenyan Drake, RB	MIA	39	153	3.9	25	2	1	30.6	0	8
30	0.854		Nyheim Hines, RB	IND	33	99	3	14	0	1	19.8	0	7
31	0.849	10	Christian McCaffrey, RB	CAR	63	329	5.2	45	1	0	82.3	1	14
32	0.844	55	Corey Clement, RB	PHI	27	112	4.1	21	1	1	37.3	0	7
33	0.839	46	Aaron Jones, RB	GB	24	147	6.1	30	1	1	49	0	9
34	0.834	35	Jordan Wilkins, RB	IND	44	175	4	18	0	0	35	0	8
35	0.829	30	Frank Gore, RB	MIA	47	202	4.3	21	1	0	40.4	0	6
36	0.824	19	T.J. Yeldon, RB	JAX	59	258	4.4	20	1	1	51.6	1	11
37	0.82	37	LeSean McCoy, RB	BUF	45	170	3.8	27	1	0	42.5	0	6
38	0.815	43	Wendell Smallwood, RB	PHI	25	150	6	15	0	1	30	0	8
39	0.81		Kenneth Dixon, RB	BAL	13	44	3.4	15	0	1	44	0	3
40	0.805	44	Peyton Barber, RB	TB	50	148	3	23	1	0	37	0	4
41	0.8	53	LeGarrette Blount, RB	DET	47	117	2.5	13	0	2	23.4	1	9
42	0.795		Austin Ekeler, RB	LAC	34	203	6	32	2	0	40.6	0	9
43	0.79	47	Tarik Cohen, RB	CHI	27	139	5.1	21	1	0	34.8	0	8
44	0.785	57	Latavius Murray, RB	MIN	30	106	3.5	12	0	0	21.2	0	5
45	0.78	56	James White, RB	NE	23	110	4.8	22	1	1	22	0	4
46	0.776	64	Rashaad Penny, RB	SEA	29	92	3.2	15	0	0	18.4	0	5
47	0.771	75	Leonard Fournette, RB	JAX	20	71	3.6	12	0	0	35.5	0	3
48	0.766		Tevin Coleman, RB	ATL	61	225	3.7	36	2	1	45	1	7
49	0.761	18	Bilal Powell, RB	NYJ	59	264	4.5	38	2	0	52.8	1	10
50	0.756	59	Doug Martin, RB	OAK	27	99	3.7	15	0	0	19.8	0	3
51	0.751		Marlon Mack, RB	IND	10	34	3.4	8	0	0	34	0	1
52	0.746		Ronald Jones, RB	TB	10	29	2.9	7	0	0	29	0	1
53	0.741	23	Alfred Morris, RB	SF	62	228	3.7	16	0	1	45.6	2	15
54	0.737		Alex Armah, FB	CAR	4	10	2.5	4	0	1	2.5	0	1
55	0.732	27	Alex Collins, RB	BAL	57	217	3.8	19	0	2	43.4	2	10
56	0.727		Damien Williams, RB	KC	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57	0.722		Jonathan Williams, RB	NO	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
58	0.717		Chase Edmonds, RB	ARI	14	39	2.8	9	0	0	7.8	0	3
59	0.702		Keith Smith, FB	OAK	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
59	0.702		Benny Cunningham, RB	CHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
59	0.702		Detrez Newsome, RB	LAC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
162	0.21	63	Malcolm Brown, RB	LAR	18	93	5.2	19	0	0	18.6	0	5
163	0.205		Jacquizz Rodgers, RB	TB	9	13	1.4	7	0	0	3.3	0	1
164	0.2	149	Darren Sproles, RB	PHI	5	10	2	5	0	0	10	0	1
165	0.195	76	Marcus Murphy, RB	BUF	17	70	4.1	9	0	0	23.3	0	0
166	0.19		Derek Watt, FB	LAC	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.2	0	1
167	0.185	70	Ito Smith, RB	ATL	21	80	3.8	18	0	2	16	1	6
168	0.18	72	Duke Johnson Jr., RB	CLE	17	75	4.4	15	0	0	15	0	3
169	0.176	77	Devonta Freeman, RB	ATL	14	68	4.9	20	2	0	34	0	2
170	0.171		Mark Walton, RB	CIN	5	9	1.8	4	0	0	3	0	1
171	0.166		Dwayne Washington, RB	NO	2	2	1	3	0	0	1	0	0
172	0.161	188	Derrick Coleman, FB	ARI	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.2	0	0
173	0.156	96	Rod Smith, RB	DAL	10	37	3.7	9	0	0	7.4	0	3
174	0.151	93	Corey Grant, RB	JAX	13	40	3.1	8	0	0	8	0	1
175	0.146		Roc Thomas, RB	MIN	5	12	2.4	6	0	0	6	0	1
176	0.141	99	Devontae Booker, RB	DEN	11	36	3.3	11	0	0	7.2	0	2
177	0.137		Jeremy McNichols, RB	IND	2	4	2	7	0	0	4	0	1
178	0.132		Jalen Richard, RB	OAK	9	29	3.2	9	0	0	5.8	0	2
179	0.127	69	C.J. Anderson, RB	CAR	16	84	5.3	22	1	0	21	0	3
180	0.117		Andy Janovich, FB	DEN	1	2	2	2	0	0	0.4	0	1
180	0.117		Tre Madden, FB	SEA	1	2	2	2	0	0	0.4	0	1
182	0.112	129	Brandon Wilds, RB	JAX	6	15	2.5	5	0	0	5	0	0
183	0.107	123	Jonathan Stewart, RB	NYG	6	17	2.8	5	0	0	5.7	0	0
184	0.102		Trenton Cannon, RB	NYJ	6	15	2.5	5	0	0	3	0	0
185	0.098		Stevan Ridley, RB	PIT	9	28	3.1	9	0	0	7	0	0
186	0.093	104	Wayne Gallman, RB	NYG	10	32	3.2	8	0	0	6.4	0	0
187	0.088		Kalen Ballage, RB	MIA	2	5	2.5	3	0	0	2.5	0	0
188	0.083	107	Theo Riddick, RB	DET	8	30	3.8	7	0	0	6	0	1
189	0.078		Kenjon Barner, RB	NE	3	11	3.7	11	0	0	11	0	1
190	0.073		Nick Chubb, RB	CLE	13	148	11.4	63	2	2	29.6	0	5
191	0.068		Josh Adams, RB	PHI	7	29	4.1	16	0	0	9.7	0	1
192	0.063	118	Jeremy Hill, RB	NE	4	25	6.3	11	0	0	25	0	1
193	0.059		Mike Boone, RB	MIN	3	12	4	11	0	0	4	0	1
194	0.054	61	Dalvin Cook, RB	MIN	36	98	2.7	15	0	0	32.7	1	2
195	0.049		Christine Michael, RB	IND	2	9	4.5	8	0	0	9	0	0
196	0.044		De'Lance Turner, RB	BAL	1	4	4	4	0	0	1	0	0
197	0.039		Spencer Ware, RB	KC	8	42	5.3	27	1	0	8.4	0	2
198	0.034	68	Rex Burkhead, RB	NE	24	86	3.6	12	0	0	28.7	1	4
199	0.029		CJ Ham, RB	MIN	1	5	5	5	0	0	1	0	1
200	0.024	67	Ty Montgomery, RB	GB	20	87	4.4	16	0	0	17.4	1	4
201	0.02	89	Mike Gillislee, RB	NO	16	43	2.7	5	0	0	10.8	1	2
202	0.015		Shaun Wilson, RB	TB	2	15	7.5	9	0	0	5	0	0
203	0.01		Raheem Mostert, RB	SF	6	11	1.8	12	0	0	2.2	1	1
204	0.005		Kyle Juszczyk, FB	SF	1	12	12	12	0	0	2.4	0	1

Edited October 12, 2018 by ny92mike

[DingoLadd]

7 hours ago, Counselor said:

Are they playing against Orlando? Because Dingos were all gone in my game too. 

The LBs on my bench were better than your starters, you're lucky Rodgers was able to put some pretty stats up.