Draft Discussion 4.0

[MWil23]

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Bud, I urge you to review the numbers and read these articles, especially the first one.

I get having preferences, but this kid can play.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/22/baker-mayfield-advance-analytics-nfl-draft-oklahoma-pff

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-baker-mayfields-tape-numbers-say-he-should-be-no-1-overall-pick

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

I respectfully couldn't care less. People want to draw the Russell Wilson comparisons, and he's half the athlete. People want to call him the next Drew Brees, and I don't see it. Here's the reality of what you're betting on with Baker:

1. Off the field/attitude checking out.

2. A BIG XII QB succeeding, which hasn't happened in a LONG time. He's faced poor competition in a system that is designed for QB's to excel that masks a LOT/creates a lot

3. A QB who is 6'0 succeeding, the only two modern examples being Brees and Wilson 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

I respectfully couldn't care less. People want to draw the Russell Wilson comparisons, and he's half the athlete. People want to call him the next Drew Brees, and I don't see it. Here's the reality of what you're betting on with Baker:

1. Off the field/attitude checking out.

For sure. No real way for fans to know either way though.

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

2. A BIG XII QB succeeding, which hasn't happened in a LONG time. He's faced poor competition in a system that is designed for QB's to excel that masks a LOT/creates a lot

When was the last time a NDSU worked out? Eastern Illinois? Houston? Utah? Kind of a flawed logic.

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

3. A QB who is 6'0 succeeding, the only two modern examples being Brees and Wilson 

Not many of those guys are given a chance, mostly due to physical limitations (primarily arm strength).  Add Vick to that list, Keenum.  Lots of guys 6’2”.  As someone who is 6’1, I can assure you the real life differences between someone 6’ 1/2” and 6’2 are pretty minimal. 

I mean, who was the last QB you watched play and said “Damn, that kid’s a stud but his height just kept him from completing a pass”? It just doesn’t happen.

With short dudes they typically don’t have the arm.  Baker definitely does.

[duke2056]

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Thats what I got out of it, I actually laughed out loud when I saw them, I didn't think he was cut like that. I never have expected this coming from a farm guy

 

It was 2013.  WHo the F is a "farm guy" in high school these days???

[FGK]

4 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

With short dudes they typically don’t have the arm.  Baker definitely does.

I'd just add on to LGB's post that while I agree with the first half of #1, the second half is bunk. His on field attitude is fine, he's like an angrier Phillip Rivers clone. His teammates love it and I don't care what his opponents think.

Oh, and the "Big12 QB" stuff doesn't make as much sense anymore just because of how bad the rest of college football has gotten defensively outside of the SEC and maybe the BIG10. I mean, Mayfield faced HARDER overall defenses this year than Darnold or Rosen.

[sdrawkcab321]

4 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I'd just add on to LGB's post that while I agree with the first half of #1, the second half is bunk. His on field attitude is fine, he's like an angrier Phillip Rivers clone. His teammates love it and I don't care what his opponents think.

Oh, and the "Big12 QB" stuff doesn't make as much sense anymore just because of how bad the rest of college football has gotten defensively outside of the SEC and maybe the BIG10. I mean, Mayfield faced HARDER overall defenses this year than Darnold or Rosen.

He did face harder defenses but he did it with a clean pocket. That’s what worries me the most. 

[MWil23]

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

For sure. No real way for fans to know either way though.

And like it or not, the last QB we had busted BIG TIME on off the field/behavior. If it happens once, so be it...but TWICE in under 5 years...what a freaking typical Browns move.

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

When was the last time a NDSU worked out? Eastern Illinois? Houston? Utah? Kind of a flawed logic.

You're naming individual schools. I'm naming conferences/body of work, combined with questionable measurables.

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Not many of those guys are given a chance, mostly due to physical limitations (primarily arm strength).

Yeah, very true. Manziel wasn't given the chance in the first round. Neither was Rex Grossman or Cade McNown. For every 2nd/3rd round QB like Wilson/Brees, I'll give you a Colt McCoy, Pat White, and Cody Kessler

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

 Add Vick to that list, Keenum.  

Vick was pretty disappointing given how high he was selected. Keenum was undrafted and subsequently released, then showed success last year. We're talking about the #1 overall pick here.

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Lots of guys 6’2”.  As someone who is 6’1, I can assure you the real life differences between someone 6’ 1/2” and 6’2 are pretty minimal. 

I mean, who was the last QB you watched play and said “Damn, that kid’s a stud but his height just kept him from completing a pass”? It just doesn’t happen.

With short dudes they typically don’t have the arm.  Baker definitely does.

We'll agree to disagree. Fair or not, the odds are stacked WAY AGAINST drafting Baker #1 overall, especially with a much better prospect sitting there with Darnold. 

This is a freaking joke...but then again, so is this entire organization from the top down. 

[NateDawg]

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that ESPN and NFLN both want viewers tonight and want intrigue for pick #1. I still have to believe Darnold is the pick at 1. Not picking him would be about as Brownsie as Brandon Weeden getting swallowed up by our nation’s symbol. 

[TheeRealDeal]

21 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said:

I couldn’t care less about the buckeyes. But peppers is useless. 

@LETSGOBROWNIES You talked me into coming back and I have kept low but comments like this are what make my head spin. Help me out or I may have to take another long vacation before I offend someone and get banned.

God forbid any of our draft picks not be a hall of fame player after one year.

I cannot wait to read the **** storm on here tonight when everyone is complaining about the picks.

I was in a good mood this morning too. Now I just want to smash my head into a wall.

[FGK]

6 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said:

He did face harder defenses but he did it with a clean pocket. That’s what worries me the most. 

Eh. It's definitely a legitimate thing to talk about. I feel like we have a really good OL outside of LT though. And as a number of recent studies have shown, the most important thing about being a great NFL QB is hitting the open throws out of a clean pocket (because that's what you do the most in the NFL.) So I'll take the guy who is 20% better at doing that over the guy who is 20% better on the run like Darnold.

Reminder: I would be ECSTATIC for Mayfield/Rosen, but I'd be very happy with Darnold/Jackson too.

[shuudawg76]

Just throwing this out there for discussion.  Would you take Seattle's pick at 18 AND Earl Thomas III for our 3 second round picks?  

[mistakey]

9 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

And like it or not, the last QB we had busted BIG TIME on off the field/behavior. If it happens once, so be it...but TWICE in under 5 years...what a freaking typical Browns move.

You're naming individual schools. I'm naming conferences/body of work, combined with questionable measurables.

Yeah, very true. Manziel wasn't given the chance in the first round. Neither was Rex Grossman or Cade McNown. For every 2nd/3rd round QB like Wilson/Brees, I'll give you a Colt McCoy, Pat White, and Cody Kessler

Vick was pretty disappointing given how high he was selected. Keenum was undrafted and subsequently released, then showed success last year. We're talking about the #1 overall pick here.

We'll agree to disagree. Fair or not, the odds are stacked WAY AGAINST drafting Baker #1 overall, especially with a much better prospect sitting there with Darnold. 

This is a freaking joke...but then again, so is this entire organization from the top down. 

serious question
why not just root for the guy if hes the pick

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

And like it or not, the last QB we had busted BIG TIME on off the field/behavior. If it happens once, so be it...but TWICE in under 5 years...what a freaking typical Browns move.

JFF was a drunk and used all kinds of drugs.  This was pretty well known to those who bothered to investigate it apparently (obviously we didn’t, go figure).

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

You're naming individual schools. I'm naming conferences/body of work

Ok, the conferences that NDSU and directional Illinois play in then.

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

, combined with questionable measurables.

Measurable, singular. Just height.

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Yeah, very true. Manziel wasn't given the chance in the first round. Neither was Rex Grossman or Cade McNown. For every 2nd/3rd round QB like Wilson/Brees, I'll give you a Colt McCoy, Pat White, and Cody Kessler

So half of them failed?  Isn’t that about the same odds, better really, than taller QB’s?

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Vick was pretty disappointing given how high he was selected.

Injuries and felonies played a role there. 4x pro bowler though.

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Keenum was undrafted and subsequently released, then showed success last year. We're talking about the #1 overall pick here.

Absolutely, I’m just pointing out that height is irrelevant if a guy can play.

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

We'll agree to disagree. Fair or not, the odds are stacked WAY AGAINST drafting Baker #1 overall, especially with a much better prospect sitting there with Darnold. 

This is a freaking joke...but then again, so is this entire organization from the top down. 

Don’t get me wrong, I like Darnold too, but a lot of the hate for Mayfield is somewhat unwarranted.

[FGK]

3 minutes ago, shuudawg76 said:

Just throwing this out there for discussion.  Would you take Seattle's pick at 18 AND Earl Thomas III for our 3 second round picks?  

Nope. We already got Randall. Thomas is better for sure, but also older and about to need an even bigger contract. Gimme da picks.

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

serious question
why not just root for the guy if hes the pick

Who said I wouldn't root for him.

I'll have myself talked into him by 2019.

This will be right about the same time Sam Darnold is leading the NY Giants to a playoff birth.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

10 minutes ago, NateDawg said:

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that ESPN and NFLN both want viewers tonight and want intrigue for pick #1. I still have to believe Darnold is the pick at 1. Not picking him would be about as Brownsie as Brandon Weeden getting swallowed up by our nation’s symbol. 

I agree with this, Mayfield creates intrigue and that’s good for ratings.  

I’m nowhere near convinced yet.