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Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates


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1 minute ago, vike daddy said:

Green Bay is hiring Brian Gutekunst as its general manager, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport and NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported. The deal is for five years, Rapoport added.

Promotion from within, shocker. 

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Don't know anything about Gutekunst but the Packers have a tradition of drafting well dating back 25 years, so I'm sure he'll be up to the job. 

The question for me is how aggressive he'll be in turning over the current roster. 

There are two main models of the current Packers roster, not sure which to pick:

1. They're good enough to contend with only minor / routine additions and improvements in talent, a revamped coaching scheme and Rodgers returning to health

2. Even with a healthy Rodgers and better schemes, they aren't talented enough to compete with the best teams in the NFL

In favor of #1 is the fact that they made the playoffs every year Rodgers has started 10 games, have 2 NFCCG appearances since 2014, and won 3 playoff games in 2015/2016, their 10-6 years. 

Arguing for point #2 is the fact that they had long stretches even with Rodgers healthy in 2015 (last 10 games of the year) and 2016 (first 10 games) when they really struggled to produce on offense. And the defense was brutal this year, especially the pass defense. 

My guess is that the defense especially isn't talented enough to win even with better coaching, unless all their young players return to form (HHCD and Perry) and their secondary develops on the best possible trajectory (Randall, King, Josh Jones). Even then, their best outside pass rusher is arguably Matthews, who's old and overpaid, and their 3rd best is Kyler Fackrell, who's awful. The DI is very good (Clark, Daniels) but that's about the only real strength. 

Maybe they'll bring in a new coach and see what he can get out of that group in 2018. Think of it as a developmental year, like the Vikings in 2014, and then go out and add pieces for 2019 once they know what they need. I'm not sure McCarthy's leash will run that long, so maybe they'll have to try to make a few splash signings and hope it gels right from day one.

Meanwhile on offense, the OL will be fine as always but I still think the receivers are a weakness. Adams has improved considerably but I still don't think he's a top 5-10 guy like he's being paid now. Nelson looks washed up and Cobb has almost completely disappeared. Both of them are overpaid. None of their other depth options have panned out. They don't have any good TEs either. 

Hiring Joe Philbin back at OC to try to recapture the glory days of 2011 feels like a weird move to me, maybe speaking to McCarthy's comfort level than anything else. The 2017 Packers offensive talent was worse than the 2011 team at almost every position (except Bakhtiari at LT). The 2011 receivers in particular were a murderer's row: Jennings, Driver, Nelson, the rookie Cobb, Finley at TE, plus Grant and Starks in the backfield. Adams is the only receiver on the current team who'd even dress on Sundays for the 2011 version. 

So the offense looks like it's going back to the well without the talent they used to have, and the defense might ideally be more talented than they seem but will at least need some development time to see if that pans out. 

IMO the best thing for the Packers would be if McCarthy and friends have enough patience (and support from those who can fire them) to be able to build for 2-3 years before worrying about results. Look at the Saints today: hardly anything left over from their last playoff team (2013) aside from Brees, huge contributions from players drafted in the last 2-3 years (Kamara, Thomas, Lattimore, Rankins, Peat, Ramczyk, Marcus Williams, Vonn Bell). 

It's quite possible that most of the best players (aside from Rodgers) on the next Packers team to win a playoff game aren't on the roster right now.

Edited by Krauser
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The only thing I know about Brian Gutekunst is that he's basically one of us, having spent much of his teenage years in Minnesota while his dad coached the Gophers...and he's only a few months older than me...what have I done with my life?  :D

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9 hours ago, Krauser said:

 

1. They're good enough to contend with only minor / routine additions and improvements in talent, a revamped coaching scheme and Rodgers returning to health

Probably just the homer in me, but I think this is the case. Packers have been to the NFCCG twice in the last 3/4 years and we're in overtime in the divisional round the year they didn't make it. That doesn't happen if the team is just flat out bad imo.

9 hours ago, Krauser said:

Hiring Joe Philbin back at OC to try to recapture the glory days of 2011 feels like a weird move to me, maybe speaking to McCarthy's comfort level than anything else. The 2017 Packers offensive talent was worse than the 2011 team at almost every position (except Bakhtiari at LT). The 2011 receivers in particular were a murderer's row: Jennings, Driver, Nelson, the rookie Cobb, Finley at TE, plus Grant and Starks in the backfield. Adams is the only receiver on the current team who'd even dress on Sundays for the 2011 version. 

So the offense looks like it's going back to the well without the talent they used to have

I agree with this, not a big fan of the Philbin hire. Like you said, at WR it's complete night day in terms of talent. The strength of this offense has shifted. With Adams, Jones, Montgomery and Cobb, this should be an offense that gets the ball to the backs coming out of the backfield, and gets the ball out quick. None of those guys are "down field" type receivers. This offense would benefit greatly from a shift in philosophy, but that won't happen.

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5 minutes ago, MNPackfan32 said:

Probably just the homer in me, but I think this is the case. Packers have been to the NFCCG twice in the last 3/4 years and we're in overtime in the divisional round the year they didn't make it. That doesn't happen if the team is just flat out bad imo.

I agree with this, not a big fan of the Philbin hire. Like you said, at WR it's complete night day in terms of talent. The strength of this offense has shifted. With Adams, Jones, Montgomery and Cobb, this should be an offense that gets the ball to the backs coming out of the backfield, and gets the ball out quick. None of those guys are "down field" type receivers. This offense would benefit greatly from a shift in philosophy, but that won't happen.

The Packers' offensive line is light years worse than the ones that went to the NFCCG. 

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3 minutes ago, MNPackfan32 said:

Packers have been to the NFCCG twice in the last 3/4 years and we're in overtime in the divisional round the year they didn't make it. That doesn't happen if the team is just flat out bad imo.

I don't think the Packers are "flat out bad", but I think too many of their best players are on the downslope of their careers. 

They've lost a lot of talent from their last really good team (2014): Sitton and Lang are gone, Shields' career was cut short by concussions, Hayward and Hyde and Peppers are still playing well elsewhere. Nelson is old and looks tired, Cobb's production has dried up, Bulaga and Perry have been injury prone, Matthews is old and overpaid.

Meanwhile, of their last 5 draft classes, only Bakhtiari is a clear top 5 player at his position in the league. Hardly anyone else on the team (around Rodgers) is even in the discussion for top 10 at their position: maybe Daniels or Adams, maybe eventually Clark. There are easily 10 better safeties than Clinton-Dix or Burnett and 10 better IOL than Linsley and 10 better ILBs than Martinez. And those are their best players. 

I think Packers and Vikings fans both tend to underrate how legitimately good the Packers roster was from top to bottom at its peak under Thompson (2010-14). Rodgers of course deserves the lions share of credit, but it wasn't only because of him that they were so good, and it isn't mainly because of him that they've dropped off since 2015, even with him healthy. 

Even this year, with Rodgers healthy -- yes, they were 4-2, but they were only 2-1 in games decided by 8+ points (beating Seattle by 9 and Chicago by 21, in Glennon's likely final ever game as a QB1), and their point differential came almost entirely from the Bears game. They lost both of the games they played against playoff teams with Rodgers, in Atlanta and Carolina. Their pass defense was a huge weakness all year, and that's not something that can be blamed on Rodgers' collarbone. 

They're not a bad team in general, but I think they needed more than just Rodgers staying healthy to contend for the NFC this year. I said in 2015 that I think they'll be a ~10 win team going forward, not a 12-14 win team, and that's with Rodgers healthy. 

A 10 win Packers team can still make the playoffs, where Rodgers can win games more or less on his own. But that's a far cry from how good they were when they won it all in 2010, and could've won it all in 2011 and 2014. 

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In addition to announcing Gutekunst’s promotion to the top job in the personnel departement, the Packers also announced a couple of other changes. One is the promotion of Russ Ball, who was also up for the job, to executive vice president/director of football operations.

Gutekunst will have control over all roster decisions while Ball will continue to work as the team’s contract negotiator “while continuing to oversee several areas in football operations.” The Packers also announced that both men and coach Mike McCarthy will directly report to team president and CEO Mark Murphy in a change from the way the team has done business in the past.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/08/packers-announce-brian-gutekunst-as-g-m-other-changes/

 

so McCarthy doesn't report to the GM... hmm...

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Not really worried about "top 5" talent. Depth is where the Packers need to improve. Clearly they are incapable of staying healthy, so they need to improve their #4/5/6 CB's and they need depth at EDGE Rusher. 

 

We are a long ways from knowing what the 2018 Packers are going to look like. The team has money to spend and the highest draft slot in 9 years. That guarantees nothing, but it's an opportunity. I really think they are close, but this is a key offseason not just for acquiring talent, but having guys like King improve, Randall keep playing like he did in the 2nd half of this year, and Clinton-Dix returning to Pro Bowl form.

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58 minutes ago, MNPackfan32 said:

Not really worried about "top 5" talent. Depth is where the Packers need to improve. Clearly they are incapable of staying healthy, so they need to improve their #4/5/6 CB's and they need depth at EDGE Rusher. 

 

We are a long ways from knowing what the 2018 Packers are going to look like. The team has money to spend and the highest draft slot in 9 years. That guarantees nothing, but it's an opportunity. I really think they are close, but this is a key offseason not just for acquiring talent, but having guys like King improve, Randall keep playing like he did in the 2nd half of this year, and Clinton-Dix returning to Pro Bowl form.

You got a player you're hoping they draft?

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