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Bucs release former second round K Roberto Aguayo

pwny

By pwny
in NFL News

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Forge said:

This is what it boils down to. If this team were rebuilding, likely headed for a 6-10 season, sure, you let him see if he can iron out the kinks, build some confidence, etc. But are you willing to allow him to be a deciding factor in a possible playoff game just because you spent a second round pick on him? That pick is already a sunk cost, there's no reason to try and save it. Its gone. If you don't have faith in him to make that kick in a championship game, then why are you keeping him around? You can't really hide a kicker the way you could say a second round wide receiver who could be #5 on the depth chart. You're not going to carry two kickers, and if you carry him, you can't hide him. He's going to be taking those kicks for you, and this season there could potentially be a lot on the line for some of those kicks for a team like the Bucs. 

Agreed. FWIW, as much as I think it was a mistake to trade up for him in Rd 2 - the Bucs had to cut him.   Even if he succeeds elsewhere, it was clear he wasn't going to in Tampa.  And while it sounds improbable, the Bucs are my favorite NFC pick for non-playoff team to make the playoffs.    More importantly, the FO sees it that way.  And in that case, if you think you are a contender, you have to play it this way.   It sucks, because even if Aguayo recovers, the Bucs have lost all the value, someone else will benefit, but if you are a contender, you can't have a liability as your K.   If you are still rebuilding, then by all means, see if he can turn it around.  But A 1-2 game swing is all that separates a playoff contender from a team drafting in the teens the next year, so if you think you have a legit shot to be a playoff team, well, cutting bait hurts, and may be the wrong long-term move, but it's a move contenders make with a K, given how fungible they are.

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jrry32

jrry32

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1 minute ago, bucsfan333 said:

He had the third best FG percentage ever and never missed an extra point. It's hard to really argue against what he did in college.

This is what I wrote about Aguayo right after the draft:

"Over the past 5 years, around 2750 kicks were within 40 yards compared to around 2250 kicks outside 40 yards. That means approximately 55% of NFL FGs are within 40 yards compared to 45% outside of 40 yards.

What is the NFL average on kicks inside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 93.4%
What is the NFL average on kicks outside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 73.3%

What were Aguayo's college averages? 100% from inside 40 yards and 73.4% from outside 40 yards.

When you do the math, an average NFL team attempted around 31 FGs per year over the last 5 years. Of those 31 FGs, around 17 were inside 40 yards. Hitting 16 out of 17 FGs would be around 94.1% which is just above the NFL average.

Essentially, Aguayo's advantage over the average NFL kicker is ONE FG MAKE A YEAR. Over 40 yards, we can already see that his percentage is right at the NFL average.

Sorry but that's not worth a 2nd round pick to me."

And that was assuming he would remain just as accurate as he was in college.(which he did not) Basically, if you really analyzed Aguayo, he never made sense as a second rounder.

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cddolphin

cddolphin

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2 minutes ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

Crazy to me that Aguayo went from one of the best kickers in CFB history and the possibility of being a real ST weapon in the NFL to the worst kicker in the NFL.

The YIPs are real.

Weakest mind in football?

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seminoles1

seminoles1

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4 hours ago, coors said:

What happened to the guy?

He started having to make kicks with some pressure and it turned out he wasn't that good.  Like I said a few pages back, it's easy to make the kicks when your team is dominating and all you're doing is padding a huge lead/the offense is one of the best ever.  He started showing serious struggles his junior season.

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Jlowe22

Jlowe22

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On 8/13/2017 at 7:26 AM, MookieMonster said:

Bucs fans are stretching big time. You don't take a K in the 2nd round, you just don't. You certainly don't give up a 3rd and 4th to take a K in the 2nd round.

The Saints got their K of the future in UDFA last year with Will Lutz, plenty of good K options in free agency every year. Absolutely no way to justify this horrific move by the Bucs.

Only if his field goal unit figures out how to stop getting kicks blocked and returned for game losing scores.  If none of his kicks got blocked alone, we would have been 10-6 last year.  He got better later in the year, so maybe they've figured it out.

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JudeMorrigan

JudeMorrigan

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I'm not sure some of the folks here are realizing just how badly Aguayo struggled last year.  His overall completion percentage only tells part of the story.  I mean, sure.  His was at 71% on the year and Janikowski was at 68% his rookie season.  But break things down by yardage:

Janikowski:

0-19 yards: 1-1

20-29 yards: 6-6

30-39 yards: 6-7

40-49 yards: 8-14

50+ yards: 1-4

Aguayo:

0-19 yards: 0-0

20-29 yards: 5-5

30-39 yards: 13-15

40-49 yards: 4-10

50+ yards: 0-1

Basically, the only reason Janikowski's percentage was lower was that his team actually trusted him to at least attempt to make the longer kicks.  Aguayo's longest successful kick of the season was 43 yards.  Eventually, it became very obvious that the team had lost confidence in him.

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jrry32

jrry32

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On 8/14/2017 at 1:37 PM, NormSizedMidget said:

Didn't read thread so maybe posted but if you have 5 minutes.......

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/teams-nfl/nfc-south/tampa-bay-buccaneers/2017/03/01/robert-aguayo-self-scouting/

 

This could explain a lot.

Thanks, Norm, very informative. My issue with Aguayo is that even if you assumed his numbers held, he still wasn't offering that much beyond an average kicker to make him worth a high or mid-round pick.

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