Predict Top 10 offenses

[Danger]

Jesus has the preseason made people already forget about the Eagles????

[Siv]

Curious about the Chiefs this year. Last year they were the only team in history to have a 1,000 yard RB, WR and TE. With Mahomes now at the helm, I’ve heard tons of radio/tv personalities(I live in KC for now) say they’ll be the top scoring offense. Is it going to be either home run or 3 and out? Or will Mahomes be efficient and able to grind out long drives. They’re the offense I’m most unsure about as far as potential top 10 offenses are concerned. 

[DoleINGout]

3 minutes ago, Danger said:

Jesus has the preseason made people already forget about the Eagles????

Wentz might not even be cleared from his ACL injury until after week one as he hasn't been cleared for contact yet. Plus, when Wentz does return he will need a few games to knock off the rust and be the guy who should have won MVP last season. Nick Foles sucks and is injured anyways, so Nate Sudfeld is really the best option right now. Alshon Jeffrey is rehabbing from shoulder surgery still, (and will miss the first couple of games), Torrey Smith went to the Panthers, a few of the offensive coaches staff left, Mack Hollins had hernia surgery and isn't ready, and Nelson Agholor has been missing all pre-season. Guys like Darren Sproles, Donnel Pomphrey, Corey Clement, Richard Rogers and Jay Ajayi are all injury prone still or coming off of IR from 2017. Markus Wheaton missed most of training camp too apparently. Jason Peters is coming back from a major injury and Jason Kelce left the last pre-season game after hurting his leg.

 

I'm not saying the Eagles won't get their act together by midseason, I just think that they're going to be a lot less dominant to start than expected based off how well they played all last year.

[Bolts223]

I'm not really predicting any specific metric here, just who I think the top 10 offenses will be in terms of how good they are.

1) New Orleans Saints

2) Atlanta Falcons

3) Green Bay Packers

4) Pittsburgh Steelers

5) New England Patriots

6) Los Angeles Chargers

7) Carolina Panthers

8) Los Angeles Rams

9) Kansas City Chiefs

10) Philadelphia Eagles (Opportunity to be higher if Wentz comes back ASAP and is 100%)

[Tetsujin]

I think KC is going to be up there, maybe Top 5.

[NFLExpert49]

In yards? 

There's always that tricky thing for which metric to use, since points can also come from defense and special teams, but getting a lot of yards and repeatedly failing later in drives is a major knock on any offense.

In yards, I'll say:

1. 49ers (red zone is gonna be a problem)

2. Rams

3. Falcons

4. Patriots

5. Chargers

6. Steelers

7. Saints

8. Texans

9. Packers

10. Raiders

[JAF-N72EX]

In no particular order based on efficiency.

Patriots 
Although they don't look like much on paper on offense and that alone raises concern (which is why I don't see them making too much noise in the playoffs). I have to remind myself that we(fans) have said that very same thing numerous times in the past only to find out that it didn't matter in the end. At this point, I'm convinced that I could start for a Belichick/Brady team and become a 1,000 yard player.  

Brady's age could catch up to him out of no where at any given time without notice (which is what I think will eventually happen). But we(fans) have also been saying that for years now and obviously that hasn't happened yet and until it does they will be a top-10 offense. Just like they are every other year. 

Hate it or love, that's just the way that it is.

Steelers
An offense with this much talent and no real glaring holes(save for TE) should have already been the leagues #1 offense for atleast 4 years straight and since I don't feel the need to have to remind anyone of that talent, I'll move on as to (possibly) why. 

How much of this was a direct result of former OC Haley remains to be seen. Haley is not a bad coach all-around (imo), relatively speaking, but he is an absolutely terrible play-caller who failed to utilize the talent around him and get the most out of his players. 

I am not a Steelers fan (I actually hate the Steelers - but I am an objective "hater") but I have seen almost every single Steelers game in the last ~20-30 years(family ties in PA). One of the most head-scratching things that I have seen in Haley's tenure as OC was his lack of use of the play-action and I'm totally convinced that this has been a big reason as to why the offense had become predictable and has yet to live up to it's potential. All of the perfect ideal pieces that a teams needs to pull of the PA effectively have been right there in front of Haley's face for the last 4 years since Bell's 2nd year. 

-An OL who can atleast old their blocks slighlty longer than drop-step passes--check mark. The offensive line has been one of the better groups in the league.
-A QB who can actually sell the play-action. Not just run it but "sell it" - CHeck mark. Back in the mid/late 2000's Ben was known as being one the best at selling the play fake. 
-Atleast one versatile RB who has shown to be threat in both phases of the game that defenses have to account for and pick up chip blocks  --Check. Leveon Bell....enough said. 
-Atleast one smart WR who can play at all levels of the field and who can improvise and win those jup balls if/whenever a play breaks down when a defense sniffs it out and the QB is under immediate pressure--Check. AB.

This is what Haley has had and yet his offenses have finished dead last in play-action usage in every year except in 2015 where they finished 31st, behind only the Chargers. If Fich can utilize the PA, even just a little more, it would open up so much more in the playbook and keep defenses guessing themselves every step of the way and they can finally live up their true potential.

Packers
I have said all off-season (barring a Rodgers injury) that I think the Packers are going to have the best offense in the league when it's all said and done. That largly stems from the fact that Rodgers is going into a season with the best supporting cast that he has ever had in his career.  

I still think that holds true, but I do kind of question that now because alot of thst expectation relied heavily on the addition of Graham and the two headed monster in the backfield with Jones/Williams and the potential that those two showed last season. And how much a QB like Rodgers could/can benefit from a dangerous dynamic duo like that. He has never had a duo that versatile, collectively, in his career.

But now with Jones' 4 game suspension, I'm not as sure as I was before because now they're forced to rely too much on Williams - who I'm not sure is fit to carry the full load due to his skill-set limitations - and Montgomery who is not a good RB. IMO, he is nothing more than a gadget a player with snap count limitations due to his illness and how far he can push his body. I'm not sure he can fill that void at the same rate throughout the first 4 weeks. 

So Jones missing 1/4 of the season kind of changes my perspective in a way as far being the #1. I was very high on Jones based on what I seen in him last season and while I think that he would have still split some carries with Williams based on skill-set (Williams being the downhill, short yardage runner and Jones being the more versatile), Jones' would have been getting the majority of the snaps (imo) because he has shown to be the better pass-catcher out of the back-=field and not too far behind Williams in terms of being a in-between tackle runner either. He just didn't get enough opportunities and was pulled last year in certain situations when he shouldn't have (imo), for whatever reason.

That being said, The Packers schedule is very favorable in this regard as 3 of their first 4 games are home games and Jones can still come back during their hardest stretch of the season when they travel in 4 of their next 5 games. At this point, Rodgers not only has recieving targets on the outside but for the first time ine his career he also has targets in the backfield as well as a legit red-zone target at TE in Graham. Who I don't think is done. 

Wow - this post is already becoming too long with 7 more teams to go - I gotta start shortening this up

Chargers 
This is tough because Rivers played better last year than his numbers indicate(not that they were bad) and he has a good cast. The problems is, you never know what you're going to get with the Chargers from year to year with all of the injuries. That said, if I'm a betting man, I'm taking the shot and saying they break the cycle this year.

Chiefs
I like Mahomes going forward and I think the Chiefs are going to really reap the benefits of letting him sit a year behind a veteran QB in order for him to learn the system instead of throwing him into the fire. Barring injuries, he has a plethora of weapons around him and while Reid may have his flaws as an HC, you can't deny that the man knows how to get the most out of his QB's. 

The only real concern I have is whether or not the defense can do enough to take the pressure off the offense.

Saints
Much like the Patriots, they are a top offense every single year so it's nearly impossible to keep them out the top 10. Even if Brees does has to throw 400 yards a game. 

Falcons
Losing Shanahan hurt but they're still top end offense and I really like the idea of pairing Ridley with Julio. While you generally can't expect alot out of rookie WR's in their first year - even just a 800/4 year from Ridley is only icing on the cake.

Rams/Eagles
Not sure if you guys were aware of this or not but the Eagles won the SB and the Rams offense scored the most points in the NFL last season? Shocking, I know. 

In all seriousness though, I do have a feeling that atleast one of these two teams(if not both) will not have a top-10 offense this year. But as it stand,  it's hard to keep them off of this list for the above reasons. 

Philly losing Reich and Flip could have a bigger impact than it may seem right now. The Rams offense could have just caught lightening in a bottle against some bad defenses.

But again, while these are certainly possible, I can't count either of them out right now. 

Lions
My wild-card pick. Why? Because that's all they do is throw the damn ball. They don't believe in running -- at all. Their entire offensive philosophy has been literally built around playing the odds game - "Hey, if we throw the ball 50 times a game...we're bound to get a TD or two eventually". I'm surprised that team still punts the ball to be truthfully honest.

Brees had 673 pass attempt in 2016 alone. The Lions have 713 rushes in 2016 and 2017 combined. 

All kidding aside though, Stafford has become one of the most underrated QB's in the league, imo. He has flaws just like any other QB does and some of those flaws have cost them games. But the poor guy don't get any help in the backfield, his OL gets beat to hell, his defense can't keep him off the field, the only consistent target he has had is Tate and he takes a beating every single year and still don't miss time.

Despite of all of that, the Lions offense still finished  7th in points, 10th in yds/p, 12th in DVOA while playing the 4th toughest schedule in the league. If Patricia can turn that defense into something atleast respectable, I do think they can crack that 10 spot.

My only concerns with this are 1) They play in a division with a couple of tough defenses and another who can hit their stride this year. 2) I'm very skeptical of any former Patriots coach.

+++++++++++++++++++++

tl;dr version

In no particular order based on efficiency.

Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Chargers
Chiefs
Saints
Falcons
Rams
Eagles
Lions

 

[pwny]

19 hours ago, megatechpc said:

9 - Jacksonville (the Jags somehow finished 5th in points last year and I suspect its because of all the defensive TD's, which they can do again)

fwiw - They were 10th in points if you remove every one of the defensive scores. 

They can be top 10 again *if* the receivers find a way to step up and the running game stays relatively healthy. 

[PatriotsWin!]

By points:

1. Rams - Led NFL last year, only got better.

2. Pats - Brady has led a top 10 offense in EVERY SEASON OF HIS CAREER, outside 2003 where his offense ranked 12th. Pats haven't been outside the top 4 in 8 straight years.

3. Saints - Brees and his weapons will shine once again.

4. Eagles- Very creative system and a lot good skill players.

5. Steelers - Ben, Brown, Bell. How could they not be a top offense?

 

[stl4life07]

14 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

1) Packers - If A-A-Ron is healthy, it's gonna be GB.

2) Steelers - A production juggernaut with all those weapons.

3) Saints - Brees' age concerns me. You know the cliff-dive is coming but the amount of weapons they have can help delay that.

4) Eagles - Doug Pederson > offensive mind than your coach. Not as much talent as the top 3 but pretty much the same offense from last year.

5) Chargers - All they needed was an upgraded/healthy O-line. They got every other piece.

6) Falcons - Really good offense, but overrated. They're not the same without Kyle Shanahan.

7) 49ers - And since we're talking about him, I think Shanahan and Garoppolo are going to generate a ton of production, despite not being as talented as most teams.

8) Pats - It's as if Bill is trying to set Tom up to fail. Brady's still gonna be Brady though.

9) Rams - Most overrated team in the league. That's not to say they won't produce a good amount of offense. They have a plethora of talent but the 2017 product was the classic catch-you-by-surprise version. They'll have success but not nearly as much.

10) Giants - Eli's on the decline but he's still smart enough to know where to put the ball. Adding a healthy Odell, Saquon, and an upgraded O-line is going to do wonders for him.

I don’t buy that “catch teams by surprise” theory you have about the Rams. I get you can catch a team on a random day by surprise for 4 quarters. You might can start the season in the month of September by surprise as teams are trying to figure themselves out. But to go through 17 weeks, 16 games and catch everyone by surprise, that’s impossible. By week 8 teams know who to take seriously. Week 6 when the Rams traveled to Dallas, I’m sure Dallas took them seriously. Especially with Gurley coming on national tv TNF and jokingly saying to Dallas legend Irving that the Rams were going to and I quote “whip up on the Cowboys”.

I’m sure the Jags after dominating the Steelers took the Rams seriously Week 6 going up against the number one offense to shut them down and beat them at home. Then in London I’m sure the Cardinals took the Rams seriously in Week 7. Fast forward to weeks 11-16 when the Rams traveled to Minnesota, played the Saints, played the Eagles, traveled to Seattle and Tennessee and went (3-2) clinching a divisional title. All those teams took the Rams seriously. Like the Rams only had one game that was a blowout and that was against the Vikings in which it was a 7-7 game entering the 4th Q and the game got away from them. The Rams didn’t sneak up on anybody. They were just really good. 

[megatechpc]

14 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Colour me shocked.

I got ya but that is absolutely my expectation, and its not exactly a silly take just because I'm a homer Falcons fan.  I mean they actually were the #1 offense just 20 months ago (and not just the best offense, but an historic offense scoring 540 points for 8th ALL TIME).  There is simply no excuse for a team this loaded on offense NOT to be the best offense this year and if they don't at least finish in the top 3 I'd say Sark has got to go.

[Shanedorf]

3 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

In no particular order based on efficiency.

 

Packers

But now with Jones' 4 game suspension

 

Excellent write up -
FYI,  Packers RB Aaron Jones is only suspended the first (2) games, not 4

And one of the biggest additions to the offense is a blocking TE in the form of Marcedes Lewis

[JAF-N72EX]

18 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Excellent write up -
FYI,  Packers RB Aaron Jones is only suspended the first (2) games, not 4

And one of the biggest additions to the offense is a blocking TE in the form of Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for the correction and clarification. I thought his initial suspension was 4 games? I assume he appealed it then and "won" or am I mistaken altogether?. 

[Shanedorf]

Here's a write up on what happened for Aaron Jones
https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/05/explaining-why-packers-rb-aaron-jones-was-suspended-2-games/

 

[FalconFan13]

12 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Carolina Panthers

4. New England Patriots

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

6. Los Angeles Rams

7. Los Angeles Chargers

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. Cincinnati Bengals

10. Miami Dolphins

Dang fam we don't even make it in the top 10?  Even in Sarks 1st season of not knowing the scheme with less weapons and a worse O-line talent wise we were still atleast top 10