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Stock Up, Stock Down Weeks 1&2


ChaRisMa

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3 minutes ago, jleisher said:

 

If I am reading this right, HaHa is the top ranked player on Defense, correct?  If so, then why is the love not there?

1. PFF grades are terrible.

2. Secondary PFF grades are even worse than their already terrible average.

3. People want to not like HHCD after he wasn't a superstar this past year like so many predicted. So unless he has a three pick-six game, people are going to be whiny about him.

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4 hours ago, TheBitzMan said:

Gotcha - For some reason PFF has always hated King. They had him in the 40s last year, this year they have him at a 56.3. I take their DB stuff with a grain of salt. I use PFF for the raw data and DFS purposes. 

The area where I find their CB grades lacking is the fact that they don't factor in differences in assignment within position groups. Back in 2012, TWill was taking the tougher matchups compared to Shields, but Shields was graded alot higher. Then in 2013 and 2014 when Shields started getting more of the tougher assignments, their grades predictively flip-flopped with Shields getting the lower grades and TWill improving. So you have to apply some outside intelligence to the grades to make better use of them and only use them to compare guys that are being used in similar roles even within the same position group. If you're just talking about comparing two CB's that perform a similar role but one has an easier matchup in a given week than the other, those differences will balance out over the course of a season. But if one consistently gets tougher assignments than the other, it won't balance out.  

With that said, King wasn't all that good last year. I think he was good *for a rookie*, and there were definitely signs of promise that hopeful fans seize on, but the total picture in a vaccuum wasn't great. He was near the bottom (#70-85 rank) in all the sig stats, which aren't affected by grading proclivities. His numbers are improved this year.

Sample size for him was too small both last year, and obviously this year. With small samples like that just 1 or 2 plays could swing the grade so you need to wait for snaps to accumulate to balance out those swings both for King and the CB's he's compared against. For instance, his pass rating allowed is #51 right now, but if you take out the 1 td he allowed, that jumps all the way up to #22. 

His grade vs. the run is also bringing the overall grade down.

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Just now, jleisher said:

 

If I am reading this right, HaHa is the top ranked player on Defense, correct?  If so, then why is the love not there?

Because he's not Earl Thomas and players want Packers to suck to affirm their bias.  Talked about this earlier, but people were literally posting successful Clinton-Dix tackles as examples of why he sucks.  He makes an excellent tackle against the Bears that helped us win the game (we don't win if he doesn't) and it generated a big "meh."  Had an interception and it's probably a bunch of, "It went right into his hands, he did nothing special." 

It's sickening. 

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10 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Because he's not Earl Thomas and players want Packers to suck to affirm their bias.  Talked about this earlier, but people were literally posting successful Clinton-Dix tackles as examples of why he sucks.  He makes an excellent tackle against the Bears that helped us win the game (we don't win if he doesn't) and it generated a big "meh."  Had an interception and it's probably a bunch of, "It went right into his hands, he did nothing special." 

It's sickening. 

Not even Kyler Fackrell gets this much hate

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Just now, Gopackgonerd said:

Not even Kyler Fackrell gets this much hate

The hell he doesn't.

The HaHa defense team likes to use hyperbole.  Ha Ha deserved to be taken to task after the non effort display last year.

I think he's done a good job so far this year, but where is his value?  Is he going to want too much money playing a position where the bottom fell out last off season?  He plays a good, solid game. He might be better if Brice upped his game a little more.  Our DBs have been much improved. Hopefully King recovers quickly, he really solidifies that group.

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18 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

The hell he doesn't.

The HaHa defense team likes to use hyperbole.  Ha Ha deserved to be taken to task after the non effort display last year.

I think he's done a good job so far this year, but where is his value?  Is he going to want too much money playing a position where the bottom fell out last off season?  He plays a good, solid game. He might be better if Brice upped his game a little more.  Our DBs have been much improved. Hopefully King recovers quickly, he really solidifies that group.

If he's just average the rest of the year and he asks for 10+ a year, obvi you cut him loose. But the safety market wasn't too hot this year, I doubt he will make a lump sum of change. I think he's definitely worth keeping if he's a consistent tackler and creates turnovers for the rest of the year. He doesn't need to be Nick Collins, an exceptionally high standard people put on him.  But he needs to be a more consistent tackler and take better angles if he wants to stick around. Teams would line up for Haha if he was on the market. It just depends how much he asks for really. Hopefully it's around the 8-10 million a year mark like Cobb got at the very most.

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Regarding Brice, I think we saw what he’s great at and what he’s bad at in two weeks.

Attacking between the sticks is a strength. You’ll see him on both sidelines, he’ll be there to hit somebody. 

Being the single high safety is an issue. He doesn’t have incredible vision of the field. I had hoped he’d be improved there. He isn’t. His ceiling isn’t much higher than where he’s at imo.

I want to see Josh Jones.

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19 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Regarding Brice, I think we saw what he’s great at and what he’s bad at in two weeks.

Attacking between the sticks is a strength. You’ll see him on both sidelines, he’ll be there to hit somebody. 

Being the single high safety is an issue. He doesn’t have incredible vision of the field. I had hoped he’d be improved there. He isn’t. His ceiling isn’t much higher than where he’s at imo.

I want to see Josh Jones.

If Pettine is is the DC he says he is, he won't be there long. He said he's going to put guys into positions to see their strengths and weaknesses. One look at the film from Minny and he should identify that as a weakness.

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26 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Regarding Brice, I think we saw what he’s great at and what he’s bad at in two weeks.

Attacking between the sticks is a strength. You’ll see him on both sidelines, he’ll be there to hit somebody. 

Being the single high safety is an issue. He doesn’t have incredible vision of the field. I had hoped he’d be improved there. He isn’t. His ceiling isn’t much higher than where he’s at imo.

I want to see Josh Jones.

Good post - but dont Jone's and Brice's talents overlay each other somewhat? In short form: being challenged in coverage?
Granted we've not seen anything of Jones in 2018 so far.....but is there considerable room for hope?

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21 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Gute's stock is down.  My biggest fear was we'd continue being that team that sees obvious weaknesses without addressing them during the season.  

I don't know what the reason is, but I don't like it.  This team could be a Super Bowl team if we added a pass rusher.  If we were willing to give up two firsts for Mack, why aren't we willing to give up less for somebody else?  

Gotta think somebody would send their 3rd pass rusher to us for a second round pick or lower, and we definitely need one.  Especially if any of ours get hurt, God forbid.

It's week three, and you have no idea whats going on. Lets at least wait until after the trade deadline to bash Gute. 

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13 minutes ago, Toddfather said:

It's week three, and you have no idea whats going on. Lets at least wait until after the trade deadline to bash Gute. 

We're talking about stock being up and down.  Tell me a stock that doesn't fluctuate, please.  Right now his stock is down.  

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17 minutes ago, Leader said:

Good post - but dont Jone's and Brice's talents overlay each other somewhat? In short form: being challenged in coverage?
Granted we've not seen anything of Jones in 2018 so far.....but is there considerable room for hope?

I think the rap on Jones was more that he doesn't pick up what's happening very quickly.  He should have the skills and body type to play the ball better than Brice, but he has to prove that he's comfortable out there and prove that he's reliable at playing his position and responsibilities.

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31 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

If Pettine is is the DC he says he is, he won't be there long. He said he's going to put guys into positions to see their strengths and weaknesses. One look at the film from Minny and he should identify that as a weakness.

Like half the league tries to avoid their SS covering the deep third. We know that either he or Jones needs to develop cover skills. They are both physically gifted guys. It’s gotta come down to who has the instincts to turn and cover deep and take the correct angles and make the right decisions on which route they need to help on. I haven’t seen either of them do it.

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3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. PFF grades are terrible.

2. Secondary PFF grades are even worse than their already terrible average.

3. People want to not like HHCD after he wasn't a superstar this past year like so many predicted. So unless he has a three pick-six game, people are going to be whiny about him.

People are sick of HaHa playing like a *****.  

People are sick of the fact that HaHa hasnt improved his tackling since his rookie season.

People are sick of HaHa getting and staying blocked by wide receivers.

People are sick of watching HaHa watch his teammates tackle the ball.

People are sick of HaHa's complete lack of instincts.  

People are sick of watching Haha play not to get hurt.

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