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Around the NFL II - Even NFLier


y2lamanaki

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Bringing this point up is like a cheat code. 

Of course, I stand by this theory until we go full confusing and draft a guy like Rashan Gary. Because...that's the one unpredictable variable in all this. The sense to actually draft one of the blue-chip edge guys.

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36 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

To answer your first question, I don't remember anyone suggesting a trade for them, likely because they know it wouldn't happen. But let's talk about them - I believe both were acquired in the same year, no? One was a 2nd round pick, one was a 5th round pick, no? 

It's not cherry picking stats - those are the relevant stats. If OBJ is the quickest way to turn our fortunes around, then it begs the question why he has a higher number of years in the league than he has career receptions in the playoffs. It would seem that he should have more if the WR position was so valuable. 

And yeah, a top 5 offense is obviously great. New England (who you mentioned, not me - lest I be cherry picking again) had no receiver over 850 yards on the year. Last I checked, they are the only team from 2018 that really matters. But I can go further. 

But those other teams did some other things pretty well that are going unmentioned. Kansas City led the league in sacks and were 6th in turnover differential (the 4 teams you mentioned were 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in this category). The Saints were 5th in sacks. The Rams were in the top half of the league as well. Seems like aside from having a top offense, those teams had some other key things they did well that we did not (sacks and turnovers). OBJ isn't going to help us there. An edge rusher might.

You know who had a great offense last year? Pittsburgh. You know who struggled with forcing turnovers? Pittsburgh. You know who didn't make the playoffs, needs defensive help, and just traded their star receiver? Pittsburgh.

I agree that OBJ would take us to a top 5 offense. Never debated that. I wanted that. But I also know he's not helping our biggest problem as a team (pass rush/turnovers) and I happen to know that the best way to help that is with the #2 overall pick (or any first round pick we could acquire in a trade down). In the ultimate team sport, you need things to work on both sides of the ball.

As for the Super Bowl winning quarterback question (talk about cherry picking), there has been plenty of historical data to suggest that theory is wrong while the historical data on the receivers holds up a lot better (the best receivers Brady ever had - Moss and Welker - have no rings).

And the point I dare you to argue:

I easily trust a star blue-chip edge guy at #2 and Shanahan coaching up a flawed but talented WR at #36 over a star WR for #2 and Saleh coaching up a flawed but talented edge guy at #36. Would have loved OBJ, but not at the cost of no first round pick. 

 

I mean Thomas and Hill were top 5 level elite WRs this year. One of the biggest arguments going on about OBJ is people saying you don't need a top 5 WR to be an elite offense. While true, NO and KC sure reaped benefits having a top 5 level WR this year.

Let's go point by point here. First you bring up Pittsburgh? Okay fair, they were the only top 6 rated offense (DVOA) that missed out on the playoffs. If you want to key on them then that's fine. The other top 5 offenses? KC/LAR/LAC/NE/NO all made it to the divisional round with four of those teams making it to the conference championship game. 

You know what helps being in the top 10 in turnovers forced and sacks? Having elite offenses that allow you to play with the lead for majority of the game. You mention KC here, and I think this is the fairest comparison to what we are discussing. They led the league in sacks and still had a poor defense. They had THREE elite or close to elite pass rushers and the defense in most games, especially against the Patriots in the 4th quarter was abysmal. Why? Their secondary was crap and their LB play was terrible. Having THAT great of a pass rush still wasn't able to help their secondary out. We would essentially have a KC type of DL if we draft Bosa, which would be great but wouldn't assure us having a top 10 defense or anything. Patriots didn't have that type of pass rush that the Chiefs had, but they had a MUCH better secondary that helped them win a SB.

I would argue having OBJ and a top 5 offense would trump us having Bosa and a top 5-7 level pass rush. Only the Steelers from any team finishing in the top 6 in offense failed to reach the divisional round of the playoffs. 

And of course I cherry picked the QB argument. I was making a point of how easy it is to cherry pick stats. I would never advocate not taking a QB in the 1st round if you believe it will be a franchise QB for years to come. 

To the last point, and this is really all it comes down to. I have no problem if you believe Bosa+best available WR in the 2nd round>OBJ+best available edge rusher in the 2nd round. This has been my BIGGEST point I've been arguing....Just the opposite. I see it as OBJ+best available edge in the 2nd round>>Bosa+best available WR in the 2nd round. I don't see Bosa as a special talent, I just don't. Doesn't mean I don't think he is really good and won't be a really good player for years to come, because he will. This is a guy who will be getting 10-12 sacks for majority of the years he plays in the league and will make some pro bowl trips. Very low chance of him ever becoming a bust. He's the classic safe pick. So hey, if that's the route you want to go then no issue at all. That's why while I wanted OBJ badly and would have traded the #2 pick for him, I'm not OVERLY upset or anything with Lynch and the crew wanting to keep the pick. 

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11 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Of course, I stand by this theory until we go full confusing and draft a guy like Rashan Gary. Because...that's the one unpredictable variable in all this. The sense to actually draft one of the blue-chip edge guys.

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11 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Of course, I stand by this theory until we go full confusing and draft a guy like Rashan Gary. Because...that's the one unpredictable variable in all this. The sense to actually draft one of the blue-chip edge guys.

If we go Gary, I will flip. It'd be like drafting Thomas all over again. Literally same problem and everything

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2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Which is why I kinda expect it.

Damn, you and @Forge are both playing the roles of buzz kills haha. I understand because of past drafts and the way those players have been utilized or lack there of but our two mods this negative a month away from the draft?! 

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3 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

^ they look fine, but just don't look like the Jets. Just doesn't feel right, but it's not some big whoop to me all the same. 

Really? I think those are disgusting. I’ve actually always liked the the Jets uniforms, the simplicity was nice. This looks like bad.

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6 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

Really? I think those are disgusting. I’ve actually always liked the the Jets uniforms, the simplicity was nice. This looks like bad.

eh.. it's just green and dark green that looks more like the Iggles. Probably a lot of wasted effort and money went into this.. oops. 

It neither dazzles or repulses me in the least; never been a fan of green anyway. 

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7 hours ago, oldman9er said:

^ they look fine, but just don't look like the Jets. Just doesn't feel right, but it's not some big whoop to me all the same. 

I couldn't even tell it was the Jets until I saw you mention it... so does that defeat the purpose of a uniform, if the team is not easily recognizable?

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