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Is Alvin Kamara the best Running Back in the NFL?

SBLIII

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tyler735

tyler735

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At this point, I would not argue against Barkley as the most talented RB in the NFL. After what he's shown throughout the year, he has lived up to his monstrous hype coming into the league. I see Kamara, Gurley, and Elliott all about the same as each other after Barkley. However, I seem to have been ridiculed the most comparing Kamara to being on the same level as Gurley. So just a quick run down here between my views on them.

Statistically Gurley holds a slight advantage over Kamara this year. However, I'm not sold on Gurley's statistical advantage being the be all end all in comparing the 2 players. 

Currently Gurley is 4th in yards from scrimmage, Kamara is 5th. Gurley is 1st in touchdowns, Kamara is 2nd. They are both putting up near top of the league statistical years in terms of yards and touchdowns.

However, I have watched quite a few Rams games this year, and I don't think I've seen a RB benefit from the system they are in as much as Gurley. For much of the year the Rams made a killing attacking teams deep downfield in 11 personnel. This also means that Gurley has faced 8+ defenders in the box 8% of the time, this is 2nd lowest in the league with Tarik Cohen only have a lower number of stacked boxes faced. Kamara by comparison has faced 8+ defenders in the box 22% of the time. I'd also add that the Rams Offensive Line according to football outsiders accounts for 5.46 adjusted line yards, which leads the NFL, and is ahead of the Saints by a decent margin 5.16 adjusted line yards for the Saints.

With the Rams having great success (most of the year up until the past few weeks) attacking deep, this has forced defenses to try to slow down the deep passing game. This combined with an excellent run blocking unit has allowed Gurley to have huge holes to run through on a regular basis. 

To add to the point of the Rams offensive line being great at run blocking this year. Take today's game for example. The Rams placed a JAG in there in CJ Anderson, who has been cut by several teams this year. He went off for 20 carries, 167 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and over 8ypc. He's been with the team for a week, and they just plugged him in, and he had massive production.

Then there's Malcolm Brown who currently has the same ypc as Todd Gurley behind that line at (4.9 ypc), and a slightly higher yards per reception, admittedly on a much smaller sample size. However, don't take this to mean that I view CJ Anderson or Malcolm Brown to be on the same level as Gurley. I don't. That is not the point I'm trying to make here. Just highlighting the effectiveness of their current system to plug RB's in and get excellent results.

In watching Gurley play, he has some very good tools to work with as he has a great size/speed combo, and does a good job locating the hole and getting up field in a hurry. He also is pretty good catching out of the backfield. That said, one of the biggest issues I have with Gurley's game is he simply isn't a very creative runner. If there is a hole, he is likely going to take advantage and net a positive play, and if there is a seam in the 2nd level, he has the speed to take it the distance from anywhere. However, he doesn't appear to create many yards on his own. He doesn't appear to make many people miss in the backfield or open field. This isn't to say he doesn't run through arm tackles and such, but it's not often I've seen him string a series of cuts together making defenders miss. He seems limited compared to several other top RB's in this regard. 

We saw Gurley struggle 2 years ago when he was in a much less fortunate situation with his supporting cast/system. That wasn't all his fault, but as mentioned before it seems his current system seems to benefit him quite a bit. Below is an interesting video from a few weeks ago that describes how dominant the Rams OL has been and the type of system the Rams run, which has benefited RB's quite a bit.

As for Kamara this year. He started the first 4 games of the season without having Ingram playing. In those 4 games, Kamara led the NFL in scrimmage yards and touchdowns. Since week 4 he has had a fairly balanced attack with Ingram. Kamara's averages aren't as eye popping as last season, however he has been utilized differently this year compared to last as he has been our go to guy on short yardage/goal line situations (hence being number 2 in touchdowns this year). Last year his averages were a bit inflated not taking as many of these types of carries. I see people mention that it should help Kamara having Ingram, but it's a bit of a double edged sword. Without Ingram there is decent chance that Kamara has near top of the league yards from scrimmage and may lead the league in touchdowns given his production without him to start the year and still ranking top 5 in scrimmage yards and 2nd in touchdowns splitting carries. 

It has certainly hurt our run game having some key injuries on the OL this year (especially Terron Armstead). We also have been without Ted Ginn much of the year. He has been the only reliable WR we have that can consistently stretch the field. Having him out most of the year has allowed defenses to not respect the deep ball. Don't get me wrong Michael Thomas is an excellent WR, but he isn't much of a downfield threat, and without Ginn, he is our only WR that can consistently strike any fear in opposing defenses.

As mentioned earlier Kamara has seen stacked 8+ defender boxes 22% of the time this year. This combined with not having any reliable number 2 WR's/deep threat, and having injuries to the OL has caused our running game take a substantial hit, as teams have been keying in on it and not worrying about getting beat deep as there has been little to no threat.

Regarding Kamara's ability as a RB. He has solid size for the position. He has great burst, and enough top end speed to take it the distance. He may not be as fast as Gurley, but he is much more creative in the open field. Gurley is a bit more powerful of a runner, but Kamara has a substantial edge in balance. Kamara has such an incredible ability to absorb contact, and keep on his feet. That combined with his ability to string cuts together at a high rate of speed has made for some of the more impressive plays I've seen from a RB the past couple years. I also think Kamara has better versatility than Gurley. Kamara has been a great receiving back lining up all over the place and burning several DB's the past couple years. Kamara has also shown to be a dangerous return man, not that it factors in much when comparing them, but is still worth noting that his ability as a returner has impacted multiple games. I'd post some clips to highlight some of these strengths/weaknesses of each of them, but we all know how that turns out lol.

Basically, I view them as similarly talented RB's that have different skillsets. To me they are likely going to be interchangeable for years to come among the best RB's in the league. I don't see either having a significant edge over the other given their strengths and weaknesses. If there is a RB that could be crowned as the consensus number 1 in the future it will likely be Barkley.

 

 

Edited by tyler735
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GSUeagles14

GSUeagles14

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26 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

At this point, I would not argue against Barkley as the most talented RB in the NFL. After what he's shown throughout the year, he has lived up to his monstrous hype coming into the league. I see Kamara, Gurley, and Elliott all about the same as each other after Barkley. However, I seem to have been ridiculed the most comparing Kamara to being on the same level as Gurley. So just a quick run down here between my views on them.

Statistically Gurley holds a slight advantage over Kamara this year. However, I'm not sold on Gurley's statistical advantage being the be all end all in comparing the 2 players. 

Currently Gurley is 4th in yards from scrimmage, Kamara is 5th. Gurley is 1st in touchdowns, Kamara is 2nd. They are both putting up near top of the league statistical years in terms of yards and touchdowns.

However, I have watched quite a few Rams games this year, and I don't think I've seen a RB benefit from the system they are in as much as Gurley. For much of the year the Rams made a killing attacking teams deep downfield in 11 personnel. This also means that Gurley has faced 8+ defenders in the box 8% of the time, this is 2nd lowest in the league with Tarik Cohen only have a lower number of stacked boxes faced. Kamara by comparison has faced 8+ defenders in the box 22% of the time.

With the Rams having great success (most of the year up until the past few weeks) attacking deep, this has forced defenses to try to slow down the deep passing game. This combined with an excellent run blocking unit has allowed Gurley to have huge holes to run through on a regular basis. 

To add to the point of the Rams offensive line being great at run blocking this year. Take today's game for example. The Rams placed a JAG in there in CJ Anderson, who has been cut by several teams this year. He went off for 20 carries, 167 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and over 8ypc. He's been with the team for a week, and they just plugged him in, and he had massive production.

Then there's Malcolm Brown who currently has the same ypc as Todd Gurley behind that line at (4.9 ypc), and a slightly higher yards per reception, admittedly on a much smaller sample size. However, don't take this to mean that I view CJ Anderson or Malcolm Brown to be on the same level as Gurley. I don't. That is not the point I'm trying to make here. Just highlighting the effectiveness of their current system to plug RB's in and get excellent results.

In watching Gurley play, he has some very good tools to work with as he has a great size/speed combo, and does a good job locating the hole and getting up field in a hurry. He also is pretty good catching out of the backfield. That said, one of the biggest issues I have with Gurley's game is he simply isn't a very creative runner. If there is a hole, he is likely going to take advantage and net a positive play, and if there is a seam in the 2nd level, he has the speed to take it the distance from anywhere. However, he doesn't appear to create many yards on his own. He doesn't appear to make many people miss in the backfield or open field. This isn't to say he doesn't run through arm tackles and such, but it's not often I've seen him string a series of cuts together making defenders miss. He seems limited compared to several other top RB's in this regard. 

We saw Gurley struggle 2 years ago when he was in a much less fortunate situation with his supporting cast/system. That wasn't all his fault, but as mentioned before it seems his current system seems to benefit him quite a bit.

As for Kamara this year. He started the first 4 games of the season without having Ingram playing. In those 4 games, Kamara led the NFL in scrimmage yards and touchdowns. Since week 4 he has had a fairly balanced attack with Ingram. Kamara's averages aren't as eye popping as last season, however he has been utilized differently this year compared to last as he has been our go to guy on short yardage/goal line situations (hence being number 2 in touchdowns this year). Last year his averages were a bit inflated not taking as many of these types of carries. I see people mention that it should help Kamara having Ingram, but it's a bit of a double edged sword. Without Ingram there is decent chance that Kamara has near top of the league yards from scrimmage and may lead the league in touchdowns given his production without him to start the year and still ranking top 5 in scrimmage yards and 2nd in touchdowns splitting carries. 

It has certainly hurt our run game having some key injuries on the OL this year (especially Terron Armstead). We also have been without Ted Ginn much of the year. He has been the only reliable WR we have that can consistently stretch the field. Having him out most of the year has allowed defenses to not respect the deep ball. Don't get me wrong Michael Thomas is an excellent WR, but he isn't much of a downfield threat, and without Ginn, he is our only WR that can consistently strike any fear in opposing defenses.

As mentioned earlier Kamara has seen stacked 8+ defender boxes 22% of the time this year. This combined with not having any reliable number 2 WR's/deep threat, and having injuries to the OL has caused our running game take a substantial hit, as teams have been keying in on it and not worrying about getting beat deep as there has been little to no threat.

Regarding Kamara's ability as a RB. He has solid size for the position. He has great burst, and enough top end speed to take it the distance. He may not be as fast as Gurley, but he is much more creative in the open field. Gurley is a bit more powerful of a runner, but Kamara has a substantial edge in balance. Kamara has such an incredible ability to absorb contact, and keep on his feet. That combined with his ability to string cuts together at a high rate of speed has made for some of the more impressive plays I've seen from a RB the past couple years. I also think Kamara has better versatility than Gurley. Kamara has been a great receiving back lining up all over the place and burning several DB's the past couple years. Kamara has also shown to be a dangerous return man, not that it factors in much when comparing them, but is still worth noting that his ability as a returner has impacted multiple games. I'd post some clips to highlight some of these strengths/weaknesses of each of them, but we all know how that turns out lol.

Basically, I view them as similarly talented RB's that have different skillsets. To me they are likely going to be interchangeable for years to come among the best RB's in the league. I don't see either having a significant edge over the other given their strengths and weaknesses. If there is a RB that could be crowned as the consensus number 1 in the future it will likely be Barkley.

 

 

while i appreciate finally getting a response, theres an absurd amount of i thinks and my feeling us blank with no statistical evidence to back it up. despite kamara being only one spot behibd gurley in scrimmage yards you failed to mention the huge gasp between the two spots, and wed have to define slight but its an extreme stretch to call gurleys advantage "slight" by most standards.

 

really the one relevant stat you included, % of stacked boxes, needs to be fleshed out further. if the rams arent playing a fb and/or multiple tes to block then its not necesarily an advantage. youre tacking away a blocker and the defense moves someone out of the box, essentially a wash.

what it bolis down to is you yourself admitted having little statistical evidence to back ut up but kamara is right there because thats how you feel. statistically he simply wasnt up there with the elite backs, thats just facts and cant be argued.

 

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tyler735

tyler735

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2 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

while i appreciate finally getting a response, theres an absurd amount of i thinks and my feeling us blank with no statistical evidence to back it up.

As there should be when comparing players. This isn't fantasy football. This is comparing how I view 2 players in terms of their talent level.

2 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

despite kamara being only one spot behibd gurley in scrimmage yards you failed to mention the huge gasp between the two spots, and wed have to define slight but its an extreme stretch to call gurleys advantage "slight" by most standards.

Again if this was fantasy football. Fair enough stats tell the whole story there, but this is how I view their 2 current situations and what they've displayed in watching each of them.

2 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

 

really the one relevant stat you included, % of stacked boxes, needs to be fleshed out further. if the rams arent playing a fb and/or multiple tes to block then its not necesarily an advantage. youre tacking away a blocker and the defense moves someone out of the box, essentially a wash.

That is not a wash. The Rams scheme is extremely RB friendly as cited in my last post. It's not just Gurley putting up huge numbers in that system, JAGs like CJ Anderson and Malcolm Brown have had no problem putting up excellent production in their chances in that system. I fleshed this out describing the way each offense operates and you overly simplified it instead.

2 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

what it bolis down to is you yourself admitted having little statistical evidence to back ut up but kamara is right there because thats how you feel. statistically he simply wasnt up there with the elite backs, thats just facts and cant be argued.

 

Kamara is up there with the elite RB's despite splitting carries from a statistical standpoint. Top 5 in yards from scrimmage, and 2nd in touchdowns. However, this isn't fantasy football and stats don't tell the whole story for me. If you think Gurley is better fair enough to each their own. I view them as being right around the same. We're not going to change each others minds on this. I will mention again that there have been non-saints fans in here stating Kamara is right there with Gurley and Elliott as well. 

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El Ramster

El Ramster

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I freaking despise how people are quick to mention Gurleys second year.. Yet he lit up the league his rookie year with the same Oline if not worse.

@tyler735 what is your rebuttal. 
 

Also, Look at Browns numbers last year. What is your rebuttal? Same Oline. Maybe he just got better as a player.

You know guys develop. While the line helps. It isn't that easy as you make it seem.

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sammymvpknight

sammymvpknight

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On 12/23/2018 at 6:56 PM, Bearerofnews said:

As long as people preface their claims with "imo" you are safe. Because production, value per touch and eye test dont necessarily align with some of your opinions.

So you guys are doing well by inserting "imo". Play it safe. 

 

This is a forum...therefore everything is an opinion. IMO is therefore redundant and a ridiculous standard to be set. 

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tyler735

tyler735

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8 hours ago, El ramster said:

I freaking despise how people are quick to mention Gurleys second year.. Yet he lit up the league his rookie year with the same Oline if not worse.

So he was good his rookie year, sucked it up his 2nd year, and has been good the past 2 years.  The same OL can certainly struggle in different seasons. OL units aren't static. Whether it is a result of bad playcalling that doesn't play to the OL's strengths, minor injuries, or just simply being out of sync with each other. However, this just seems to lead more into the point I was making. Gurley doesn't create all that much on his own. A guy like Barkley is currently killing it with a bad OL in which he has to consistently create something out of nothing.

Quote

@tyler735 what is your rebuttal. 
 

Also, Look at Browns numbers last year. What is your rebuttal? Same Oline. Maybe he just got better as a player.

You know guys develop. While the line helps. It isn't that easy as you make it seem.

Sure Brown could have developed a bit. Then again Gurley's average went up too this year. Which certainly could be a benefit of the great success the Rams had much of the year attacking in the deep passing game, which has caused defenses to adjust accordingly and open things up for your OL to feast on. The 8% stacked boxes certainly give some more running room as well.

CJ Anderson magically get better to? He was cut by multiple teams and sucked. I know from your point of view as a Rams fan you want to believe it's some sort of feel good story about him finding his way after dealing with adversity, but realistically it's more likely that he is just running behind an incredible run blocking unit not having to create many yards on his own. Much like the video posted above shows with Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown and the OL doing a ton of work for them.

None of this is to say Gurley isn't an elite back right up with the best, I've said that numerous times. Just stating why the Rams system is very favorable for a RB to play in.

Edited by tyler735
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