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2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread


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4 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

Supposedly that will only be the deal if the Reds can extend Gray, but yeah, that's too much.  The sandwich pick alone seems like too much to me. 

Eh, I can see it for the Reds, especially if they can work out a reasonable extension. They have a hard time attracting free agent pitchers there, so they do have to be a bit creative. I think that Gray can still be a good pitcher if he leaves NY - I think that a lot of his issues there are mental/have to do with the strategy they have for him. 

Of course, I'm also of the opinion that those sandwich picks aren't all that valuable. 

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Joel Sherman:

Yankees are getting OF Josh Stowers from the Mariners for Shed Long. Stowers was taken in the second round last year so is not someone the Yankees have to protect on the 40-man roster. Yankees essentially getting 2 long-range lottery picks for Gray: Stowers was the 54th pick last year, is 21 and just completed rookie ball and the comp pick this June should be in the thirties. Yankees have traded a lot of upper-level OF depth in recent yrs — Ben Gamel, Rob Refsnyder, Jorge Mateo (who they thought might end up in CF), Jake Cave, Billy McKinney - often to cleanse 40-man roster. Stowers, lower in minors, helps toward future depth. View of Stowers: Can really run with easy power, athleticism, can handle CF, got better in pro ball after playing at Louisville. If baseball skills continue to grow to match his athleticism has a shot to be an everyday CF.

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21 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

Supposedly that will only be the deal if the Reds can extend Gray, but yeah, that's too much.  The sandwich pick alone seems like too much to me. 

Sandwich pick would be somewhere at 36-38.  The Reds took Stuart Fairchild at 38 a couple years back.  Shed Long and Stuart Fairchild for Sonny Gray and a reliever sounds about right.  Long's a great guy, but he's also a defensive liability at 2B and hit .260 in AA at age 22 last year.  It's not like we traded away Senzel or Trammell in this deal.  I hate the opportunity cost of giving up that pick, but odds are far greater that pick ends up a never was who flames out in AA than becoming the next superstar.  The Reds have trouble signing FA pitchers (Reds offered largest total contract to Happ (albeit a lower AAV) and he turned them down.  They now have Gray the next 4 years at $38 million (or 5 for $50 million) and their pitching coach is the same coach who helped make Gray a 1st rd pick at Vandy.  Is it a gamble?  Absolutely, but I totally get the reasoning behind it.  It you can get 2018 Away Gray to be Everyday Gray, then it's a massive steal.

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19 hours ago, Lions017 said:

Eh, I can see it for the Reds, especially if they can work out a reasonable extension. They have a hard time attracting free agent pitchers there, so they do have to be a bit creative. I think that Gray can still be a good pitcher if he leaves NY - I think that a lot of his issues there are mental/have to do with the strategy they have for him. 

Of course, I'm also of the opinion that those sandwich picks aren't all that valuable. 

I get that point, but that shouldn't make them have to pay a trade premium as well. It may make their FO more willing to pay more in a trade, but a separate player's trade value should be independent of the team's ability to bring in a FA.  

 

1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

Sandwich pick would be somewhere at 36-38.  The Reds took Stuart Fairchild at 38 a couple years back.  Shed Long and Stuart Fairchild for Sonny Gray and a reliever sounds about right.  Long's a great guy, but he's also a defensive liability at 2B and hit .260 in AA at age 22 last year.  It's not like we traded away Senzel or Trammell in this deal.  I hate the opportunity cost of giving up that pick, but odds are far greater that pick ends up a never was who flames out in AA than becoming the next superstar.  The Reds have trouble signing FA pitchers (Reds offered largest total contract to Happ (albeit a lower AAV) and he turned them down.  They now have Gray the next 4 years at $38 million (or 5 for $50 million) and their pitching coach is the same coach who helped make Gray a 1st rd pick at Vandy.  Is it a gamble?  Absolutely, but I totally get the reasoning behind it.  It you can get 2018 Away Gray to be Everyday Gray, then it's a massive steal.

You mean Trammel, who himself was a comp pick and taken at 35 overall?  

But then again I'm probably just lower on Gray than you guys.  HRs allowed has been his buggaboo for the past few years, even going back to Oakland, and pitching in GAB isn't going to help with that. 

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4 minutes ago, Herbie_Hancock said:

Just curious.

Basically in the hardest division in the steroid era he still dominated. His ERA may not look great but if you look at ERA+ he is right up there or above of many clear hall of famers. If you want to look at the stats that don't matter but have been used as benchmarks (20 win seasons and 300 total wins) he missed almost solely because those Orioles teams he was on weren't that good. He should have won the CYA in 2001. I'm not blaming him for voters being dumb.

Everything else is perfectly in line with a hall of fame pitcher as well. Really there is nothing he didn't do that was completely in his control.

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On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2019 at 2:42 AM, N4L said:

Guys arent getting paid for the same reason NFL teams dont pay RBs... rookies are under team control for so long, and for such a small amount of money that it makes zero financial sense to have a team full of veterans... especially when the LT has penalties such as draft picks and international money, no one wants to deplete their farm system for any FA

At this point these FAs need to accept what the market is and just sign a STD with incentives or something and an opt out. 4 years 110m or something. just get the deal done 

This was my thought.  The length of control early on is insane with the amounts these guys are paid.  The reason they hold out is because they are playing for well under the value for 3-5 years and then want to be compensated for that in their next contract.  If they reduce the number of years to get to arbitration, increase amounts available to players in arbitration, they would not have to hold out for the overpay on the back end of their career.  Older vets are worth less, their bodies break down and they lose value rapidly, so let them get paid up front and then if they want to stick around later in their careers they can sign for market value at that time instead of needing reimbursement for the 300hrs they hit prior to hitting free agency. 

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1 hour ago, hrubes20 said:

You mean Trammel, who himself was a comp pick and taken at 35 overall?  

But then again I'm probably just lower on Gray than you guys.  HRs allowed has been his buggaboo for the past few years, even going back to Oakland, and pitching in GAB isn't going to help with that. 

Trammell was signed for $3.2 million, waaaaaay above slot, so that's not comparable.  Fairchild was taken at 38 for slot money, that is the type of player they are giving up.  They wouldn't have been able to do that again with the 7th pick and 36-38th pick.

Definitely a risk, but it's a risk a team like the Reds have to take

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