Random Ravens Thoughts: New Forum Edition

[diamondbull424]

Random but in the back of my mind I was kind of worried that maybe Lamar wasn’t spending his money so wisely. Especially with giving those rolexes to his OL while on a rookie salary. But then I realized, what he spent on them is likely what most players spend on an agent to finalize their rookie deals/signing bonus. But since Lamar didn’t have an agent, he had that additional money’s to part with that many other players wouldn’t have.

... and to think that was one of the media invoked negatives about him around draft time. That he and his mother were making foolish decisions. Guess that was another thing they got wrong.

[Danand]

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Random but in the back of my mind I was kind of worried that maybe Lamar wasn’t spending his money so wisely. Especially with giving those rolexes to his OL while on a rookie salary. But then I realized, what he spent on them is likely what most players spend on an agent to finalize their rookie deals/signing bonus. But since Lamar didn’t have an agent, he had that additional money’s to part with that many other players wouldn’t have.

... and to think that was one of the media invoked negatives about him around draft time. That he and his mother were making foolish decisions. Guess that was another thing they got wrong.

I think it was Jeff Zrbiec who had a story on the Athletic, where the front office recognized some of the things that turned other teams off on Lamar, was something that turned our FO on to Lamar. That he didn't have an agent as a bodyguard who talked for him and told teams what Lamar wanted, but that Lamar did it himself.

[DreamKid]

For how good he looked, it doesn't seem like the hype is quite there for Marquise Brown. Majorly being slept on imo. 

 

 

 

[M.10.E]

5 hours ago, DreamKid said:

For how good he looked, it doesn't seem like the hype is quite there for Marquise Brown. Majorly being slept on imo. 

 

 

 

Good. We like it that way. The Raven way.

Edited March 24, 2020 by M.10.E

[sp6488]

On 3/17/2020 at 7:56 PM, sp6488 said:

Ha! Hahahahaha

 

[sp6488]

Seems like a ton of more “casual” Ravens fans (Twitter and reddit) are going nuts about ILB. Obsessing over how we need to draft Murray or Queen. 

[BareYourTeeth]

3 minutes ago, sp6488 said:

Seems like a ton of more “casual” Ravens fans (Twitter and reddit) are going nuts about ILB. Obsessing over how we need to draft Murray or Queen. 

Yeah I don't get it. Give me Brooks/Harrison/Davis-Gaither/Gay on day 2 or day 3 over either of them in the first round.

[AngusMcFife]

54 minutes ago, sp6488 said:

Seems like a ton of more “casual” Ravens fans (Twitter and reddit) are going nuts about ILB. Obsessing over how we need to draft Murray or Queen. 

I think it's a fair concern. We have starting caliber players at every position group except ILB. 

Meanwhile our "base" defense should have 2 ILB's and we have 0 starters. It's a gaping hole in our roster.  

[AngusMcFife]

55 minutes ago, BareYourTeeth said:

Yeah I don't get it. Give me Brooks/Harrison/Davis-Gaither/Gay on day 2 or day 3 over either of them in the first round.

I'd estimate the odds of a player drafted late in the 2nd round or later coming in and starting at ILB on this defense are pretty low. Possible, but not likely. There just aren't many college players who could pick up the scheme and are versatile enough to step in and play year 1. 

[wackywabbit]

On 3/7/2020 at 8:43 AM, Danand said:

Lamar and our OC has a lot of work to do. Those are plays that should be made in year 2 with Boykin on the field

 

So, I FINALLY watched this whole thing, and it's kind of what I was afraid it was. It doesn't really raise my belief that Boykin is going to be a good #2***. You can circle 5 plays from any NFL wide receiver who ran 30+ routes (especially against single coverage) and say they are getting open. In order to actually evaluate him you have to look at all the routes he runs and compare the percentage of those he gets open vs what you expect from a good receiver. The most recent game I rewatched was the Cardinals game. I know that's early in his rookie season, but when watching Boykin, he just looked like a guy content to jog with his assigned defender for 20+ routes. If you are hugging your defender for 4 routes and then getting open once, you will NOT become involved early in the progression. If you are the first read and you are covered like that, you are already setting the offense back. "Chemistry with Lamar" gets thrown around a lot, but what really separated Mark Andrews and  Hayden Hurst was that Andrews always keeps playing and working to get open, so he's earned Lamar's attention on a given offensive play. I keep going back to what the Chiefs did right with their receivers. They all keep working 5+ seconds after the snap. If you don't get to Mahomes, you are going to give up a play. Lamar isn't the deep ball thrower Mahomes is for sure, so he can't attack the entire field at the same high rate, but he does have an unmatched ability to buy time for receivers to get open if they are willing to do the work. We need receivers who are. 

***Not that I think he won't become one. It's just not shown in this video. Boykin has to improve as a player and do more on every single route he gets on the field. If he doesn't develop, then yea, he's just going to be a guy who runs the clear out routes and gets a shot maybe once or twice a game in hopes that someone pays attention to him.

Also, IDC what the guy in the video says. Any QB should take that easy 8-20 yard completion to the TE over the middle whenever its there.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

I'd estimate the odds of a player drafted late in the 2nd round or later coming in and starting at ILB on this defense are pretty low. Possible, but not likely. There just aren't many college players who could pick up the scheme and are versatile enough to step in and play year 1. 

I disagree with this logic. I mean; Patrick Queen, who I like a lot BTW, was a half year starter in 2019... yet I’m to assume that he will be quicker with picking up the playbook than guys who started many seasons at their position with much more experience?

This isn’t a scenario where these guys are possessed of some sort of advanced limitation in comparison to Queen and Murray. In some way or another Jordyn Brooks, Malik Harrison, and Willie Gay Jr are just as athletic (if not more) than Queen and Murray. Draft hype does not equate to ability.

Even with regard to position success rate, the ILB has about a 70% success rate in the first round while the second round has a 55% success rate (3rd round is 34% but mainly sees a big Dropoff towards the latter end of the round). Thus using a pick on one of those above names that are fringe 2nd/3rd round picks would make more sense to attack in the late second round and obtain the best of the bunch, then going after a LB in round one due to the low variance in success rate in comparison to the amount of draft capital needed to acquire that increased success percentage for a lower value position group. Especially when it’s factored into the equation the steeper variance seen from some of the other higher value position groups such as DL which has a 32% decline in success rate from round 1 to round 2.

Lastly all that considered, it’s the “linebacker” group that has the 70% success rate, so OLBs like Zack Baun (or historically a Clay Matthews, Von Miller, etc) would also classify in this metric. Edge OLB has much more positional value and therefore it would make much more sense to target a Zack Baun and/or Josh Uche in round one or round two than to target Patrick Queen or Kenneth Murray in those rounds respectively.

And again, I like Patrick Queen and if there’s anything that would make me favor him over Zack Baun it would be his age as he’s 20/21 (mid August birthday) while Baun is 23/24 (late December birthday). Those three years means that if both are standouts we might be able to get a solid 3 contracts out of Queen, while Baun is likely at 2 contracts... all of this assuming both end up as pro bowl impact type of LBs.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

I disagree with this logic. I mean; Patrick Queen, who I like a lot BTW, was a half year starter in 2019... yet I’m to assume that he will be quicker with picking up the playbook than guys who started many seasons at their position with much more experience?

This isn’t a scenario where these guys are possessed of some sort of advanced limitation in comparison to Queen and Murray. In some way or another Jordyn Brooks, Malik Harrison, and Willie Gay Jr are just as athletic (if not more) than Queen and Murray. Draft hype does not equate to ability.

Even with regard to position success rate, the ILB has about a 70% success rate in the first round while the second round has a 55% success rate (3rd round is 34% but mainly sees a big Dropoff towards the latter end of the round). Thus using a pick on one of those above names that are fringe 2nd/3rd round picks would make more sense to attack in the late second round and obtain the best of the bunch, then going after a LB in round one due to the low variance in success rate in comparison to the amount of draft capital needed to acquire that increased success percentage for a lower value position group. Especially when it’s factored into the equation the steeper variance seen from some of the other higher value position groups such as DL which has a 32% decline in success rate from round 1 to round 2.

Lastly all that considered, it’s the “linebacker” group that has the 70% success rate, so OLBs like Zack Baun (or historically a Clay Matthews, Von Miller, etc) would also classify in this metric. Edge OLB has much more positional value and therefore it would make much more sense to target a Zack Baun and/or Josh Uche in round one or round two than to target Patrick Queen or Kenneth Murray in those rounds respectively.

And again, I like Patrick Queen and if there’s anything that would make me favor him over Zack Baun it would be his age as he’s 20/21 (mid August birthday) while Baun is 23/24 (late December birthday). Those three years means that if both are standouts we might be able to get a solid 3 contracts out of Queen, while Baun is likely at 2 contracts... all of this assuming both end up as pro bowl impact type of LBs.

I'm in agreement with a lot of your positions. Yes Queen would be risky due to his lack of experience. From what I've seen, Murray is inconsistent and might have problems stepping in right away (but has high upside if he improves). 

I'm just not a fan of thinking guys will be good LBs because they are athletic. We've seen Peanut and Kenny Young completely fail at the position recently. Just looking at some scouting reports, I see: 

Willie Gay Jr.: slow at processing.  

Jordyn Brooks: can't cover.  

Malik Harrison: can't cover. 

Whereas it looks like Queen can cover, has good instincts, but is just a bit undersized. Not sure if he can handle the 3-4 ILB position, but he's likely the only player who can step in right away and play because he does multiple things well. If Queen gets picked before our pick, I wouldn't advocate taking Murray just because we need an ILB. But unless we get lucky with a later draft pick or FA signing, I think we're kind of screwed at ILB for the year if we miss out on Queen.   

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

I'm in agreement with a lot of your positions. Yes Queen would be risky due to his lack of experience. From what I've seen, Murray is inconsistent and might have problems stepping in right away (but has high upside if he improves). 

I'm just not a fan of thinking guys will be good LBs because they are athletic. We've seen Peanut and Kenny Young completely fail at the position recently. Just looking at some scouting reports, I see: 

Willie Gay Jr.: slow at processing.  

Jordyn Brooks: can't cover.  

Malik Harrison: can't cover. 

Whereas it looks like Queen can cover, has good instincts, but is just a bit undersized. Not sure if he can handle the 3-4 ILB position, but he's likely the only player who can step in right away and play because he does multiple things well. If Queen gets picked before our pick, I wouldn't advocate taking Murray just because we need an ILB. But unless we get lucky with a later draft pick or FA signing, I think we're kind of screwed at ILB for the year if we miss out on Queen.   

Even with that however I don’t think it’s a problem. Malik Harrison for instance might not be as good at covering as your elite coverage LBs but he’s got nice foot quickness and isn’t terrible at it either. You don’t want him in man coverage on an elite receiving RB but he would likely be comparable to 2018 Mosley, but I think he’s a superior thumper to what Mosley has ever been. Where’s Harrison still has some ability to develop in coverage due to his age.

After more and more tape I’ve gotten very comfortable with Harrison as being a very safe pick as well as with having some upside potential. He reminds me an awful lot of Daryl Smith.

Whats more Kenny Young was a surprise 4th round pick that seemed to exceed expectations as a rookie. Peanut was a convert and thus his trigger was never really the best.

Many of the listed ILBs have played the position a solid amount of time. Harrison has elite athleticism just not elite speed, but he’s got a great trigger (hence why he had 16.5 TFL on the season).

Brooks I’ve seen a bit more funky tape in some other games, but when he’s kept clean he seems to be very impressive. His coverage mishaps look very correctable whereas Patrick Queen for instance has elite run stuffers to protect him and elite DBs to keep him from being exposed when he takes missteps. Would Brooks look as good as Queen if he didn’t have to fight through as much garbage? Maybe, maybe not. Would he give up a few less plays if he had Grant Delpit and Jacoby Stevens available to make offenses think twice? Sounds reasonable.

This isn’t to discredit Queen but just saying that some of the flaws he has would be less magnified if he were around elite talent and thus in the NFL the difference between a Patrick Queen and a Jordyn Brooks might not be as prominent as the round variance would have us believe if they both see similar coaching and talent to keep them clean.

Though I will say after Brooks/Gay/Harrison... I agree, I’m not as enamored with the guys we might find in terms of their ability to have an immediate impact in 2020.

Edited March 29, 2020 by diamondbull424

[wackywabbit]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

Whereas it looks like Queen can cover, has good instincts, but is just a bit undersized. Not sure if he can handle the 3-4 ILB position, but he's likely the only player who can step in right away and play because he does multiple things well. If Queen gets picked before our pick, I wouldn't advocate taking Murray just because we need an ILB. But unless we get lucky with a later draft pick or FA signing, I think we're kind of screwed at ILB for the year if we miss out on Queen.   

If we are pointing out weakness in other prospects, Queen didn't even get in the starting lineup at the start of his junior year, which is evidence him stepping right in at the pro level.

[diamondbull424]

1 minute ago, wackywabbit said:

If we are pointing out weakness in other prospects, Queen didn't even get in the starting lineup at the start of his junior year, which is evidence him stepping right in at the pro level.

Yup. Which also might say something about our inability to fully grade his flaws.

Offenses didn’t have as much tape on him to devise ways to attack him to truly determine/expose his flaws like with some of these other guys who played more snaps.