childofpudding Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: I just don't put much stock into DVOA. I think it gets pretty convoluted and the calculations come down to personal preference that I don't really agree with. The parameters for what constitutes a "success" is pretty arbitrary. I don't know, I just don't really use it or really take it too much into account myself. Maybe I'll warm up to it when I get a second to look into things a little more, but as of now I don't see it as that great of an assessment. Such as what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Now watch Brady go 300 yards 4tds this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art_Vandalay Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Yes, he has. He's already done the unprecedented. Then unprecedented that newly precedented. Then unprec.... you get it. He's not going to play until 45 because he avoids tomatoes. It's mind-boggling what he's accomplished but it has to come to an end at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braylon Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/18/2018 at 7:54 AM, lancerman said: I’ve watched every game this year. Most of his INT’s this year were off receivers hands. That’s literally the difference. It feels like you just found a number to prove what you wanted. Logically what you should do is see a difference in the number and go “is there anything different this year than last year”. In this case there is. There is something that distinctly happened to him this year that didn’t the last few years. You can’t just dismiss that it’s a difference historically for him because it happened to other players. You look for the variable. There’s a clear variable He’s having a similar season to 2013. Hint the problem in 2013 was not that he declined. Gronk took a huge dip, Edelman is far less consistent, Hogan has been having his worst season with the team. The one receiver whose been playing at a typically high level is Gordon and he joined the team during the year so there aren’t a whole lot of plays designed around his utility compared to others. The one big flaw he has this year is the same as 2013. And it has nothing to do with either TD’s or INT’s. He’s doing the same thing he did then which is he’s not trusting his WR’s and he’s leading them a lot more or making them make safer plays on the ball because he isn’t trusting them enough to thread the needle. Which he can clearly still do because he’s done it about as good as I’ve ever seen him do it with Gordon, who he trusts. This is what I'm seeing for the most part. I don't understand why the Pats aren't utilizing Josh more. Part of me thinks they are "saving him for the playoffs" in terms of putting on tape how they're wiling to build their gameplan around him. But, at the same time.. that just doesn't totally make sense to me. Brady didn't look his way once on that last drive in Pittsburgh! They took him off the field for Cordarrelle Patterson on the last play with the game on the line!!!!!! I was disgusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, braylon said: This is what I'm seeing for the most part. I don't understand why the Pats aren't utilizing Josh more. Part of me thinks they are "saving him for the playoffs" in terms of putting on tape how they're wiling to build their gameplan around him. But, at the same time.. that just doesn't totally make sense to me. Brady didn't look his way once on that last drive in Pittsburgh! They took him off the field for Cordarrelle Patterson on the last play with the game on the line!!!!!! I was disgusted. Josh has been on the line to answer that one - Gordon was blowing, apparently. His fitness has been the issue all season so far, from what we can tell with limited inside knowledge from camp knox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braylon Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 29 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said: Josh has been on the line to answer that one - Gordon was blowing, apparently. His fitness has been the issue all season so far, from what we can tell with limited inside knowledge from camp knox. Gotcha, that makes sense. Hopefully he's ready come playoff time, because the Pats are going to need him. I want a Lary Ftiz-esque run out of Josh this year in the playoffs. I know he's capable of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said: Now watch Brady go 300 yards 4tds this week. Well he has the Bills and Jets next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Pretty sure he just stays at elite level until he dies of old age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 14 hours ago, childofpudding said: Such as what? How they define success on a play, the proportions for the point system etc. It comes up with all kinds of strange conclusions. Like, 15' Cam Newton is 12th in DVOA when he was clearly the best QB that year. I just don't see use it. Like I said, I may warm up to using the stat, and I am admittedly don't know everything there is to know about it, and so my view on it could possibly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 hours ago, goldfishwars said: Pretty sure he just stays at elite level until he dies of old age. You mean until he gets caught using HGH and excuses it as it being for his wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Classic said: You mean until he gets caught using HGH and excuses it as it being for his wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenchie Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Every year for the last 5-6 years, someone creates a thread like this and every year the answer is the same.... He's still playing like a top 5 QB, and still one of the best players in the league; no he hasn't fallen off. And even if he does start to fall off, he's got a long way to go before it's time to worry.. On 12/16/2018 at 8:06 PM, Starless said: I will be shocked if he plays another competitive football game after next month. He's a shell of himself physically and I frankly don't think he's really got a passion for the game anymore. Jeez, overreact much? Gronk is on pace for 800+ yards, averaging 14.5 per catch, and still easily one of the better TE's in the league. The passion thing may have some truth to it; He's not the same Gronk; he doesn't seem to be having fun anymore, but then again, he's almost 30; he's probably conserving the energy, or maybe Belichick told him to cut out some of the antics; who knows. One thing is for sure, he's still producing, so I'm not sure why everyone is suddenly anti-Gronk... On 12/16/2018 at 8:55 PM, Malik said: Gronk is not good. That's a pretty average receiving unit. The other 3 teams in the division have worst receiving options. He's 6th in receiving yards among TEs, despite missing 4 games. He's 2nd in yards per reception (14.5), among TEs with 40+ catches; 8 plays of 20+ yards, good for 6th among TEs. He may have slightly lost step, but to say he's 'not good' is laughable. On 12/16/2018 at 7:39 PM, Slingin' Sammy said: His supporting cast blows. Every one of his top receivers (Edelman, Hogan, Gordon, Gronk) are washed up, and his o-line is nothing special. I agree, the o-line is pretty bad, particularly the tackles. The line has really been the main issue for the Pats' offense this season. The receivers are fine, in fact, I'd say it's one of the better groups in the league. Gronk - as I stated above, is on track for a pretty good season. For whatever reason, he's getting a lot of undue criticism as of late... Edelman - on track for a 800+ yard season; 11.3 ypc (career best as a starter); Edelman is 5'10, 190 lbs; playing from the slot, most of his catches are contested by linebackers and safeties; he's going to drop a few. Other than that, really not sure what everyone's crying about. Hogan - has been woefully underutilized this season. He's averaged 2 targets per game for the last 8 weeks. It's hard for a receiver to make an impact when he's not getting the ball... Nonetheless, he's averaging 16 ypc; so when he does get the ball, it's usually a big play... He's really been wasted this year IMO. Gordon - Until this year, he hasn't played a full season of ball in almost 5 years, so obviously, there was going to be some rust. Even still, he has an outside shot at a 1000 yard season, and like Hogan, when he gets the ball, he's been a playmaker. Honestly, if anything, I think Brady tries to force too much to Gordon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, frenchie said: Every year for the last 5-6 years, someone creates a thread like this and every year the answer is the same.... He's still playing like a top 5 QB, and still one of the best players in the league; no he hasn't fallen off. And even if he does start to fall off, he's got a long way to go before it's time to worry.. Jeez, overreact much? Gronk is on pace for 800+ yards, averaging 14.5 per catch, and still easily one of the better TE's in the league. The passion thing may have some truth to it; He's not the same Gronk; he doesn't seem to be having fun anymore, but then again, he's almost 30; he's probably conserving the energy, or maybe Belichick told him to cut out some of the antics; who knows. One thing is for sure, he's still producing, so I'm not sure why everyone is suddenly anti-Gronk... He's 6th in receiving yards among TEs, despite missing 4 games. He's 2nd in yards per reception (14.5), among TEs with 40+ catches; 8 plays of 20+ yards, good for 6th among TEs. He may have slightly lost step, but to say he's 'not good' is laughable. I agree, the o-line is pretty bad, particularly the tackles. The line has really been the main issue for the Pats' offense this season. The receivers are fine, in fact, I'd say it's one of the better groups in the league. Gronk - as I stated above, is on track for a pretty good season. For whatever reason, he's getting a lot of undue criticism as of late... Edelman - on track for a 800+ yard season; 11.3 ypc (career best as a starter); Edelman is 5'10, 190 lbs; playing from the slot, most of his catches are contested by linebackers and safeties; he's going to drop a few. Other than that, really not sure what everyone's crying about. Hogan - has been woefully underutilized this season. He's averaged 2 targets per game for the last 8 weeks. It's hard for a receiver to make an impact when he's not getting the ball... Nonetheless, he's averaging 16 ypc; so when he does get the ball, it's usually a big play... He's really been wasted this year IMO. Gordon - Until this year, he hasn't played a full season of ball in almost 5 years, so obviously, there was going to be some rust. Even still, he has an outside shot at a 1000 yard season, and like Hogan, when he gets the ball, he's been a playmaker. Honestly, if anything, I think Brady tries to force too much to Gordon. Here's the issue though. For Brady, Edelman missed the first 4 games, Gronk got banged up and missed games, Hogan has been underwhelming this season and when Edelman wasn't there number 1 and number 2 corners were shutting him down, Gordon was a late addition so plays weren't really made to utilize him as they would have been if he had been there alll off season. On paper it's a great WR group, but it hasn't manifested. In the run game Berkhead was out most of the year, Michel took awhile to get up to speed and then he was injured, Patterson was out of neccessity, White is awesome but he is not a feature back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 7:59 PM, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: How they define success on a play, the proportions for the point system etc. It comes up with all kinds of strange conclusions. Like, 15' Cam Newton is 12th in DVOA when he was clearly the best QB that year. I just don't see use it. Like I said, I may warm up to using the stat, and I am admittedly don't know everything there is to know about it, and so my view on it could possibly change. Cam Newton didn't grade that superbly in 2015 in most of the stats you cited in this thread either. While he was 1st in TD%, he was 27th in completion percentage, 13th in INT%, 7th in Y/A, and 8th in passer rating. Now, look at who the Panthers played that season: twice against NO (32nd in points allowed per drive), TB twice (31st), ATL twice (18th), DAL (17th), GB (10th), HOU (6th), IND (21st), JAX (26th), NYG (29th), PHI (23rd), SEA (4th), TEN (27th), WAS (17th). Overall, an easy slate of defenses with a median and average ranking in points allowed per drive of 21st. Given those numbers, 12th in DVOA sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I don’t think DVOA is perfect but neither is any other stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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