Please Stop the Jimmy Graham Disgruntlement Thread

[AlexGreen#20]

13 hours ago, Victor1124 said:

It is "wildly unrealistic" to expect your front office to sign quality free agents to good deals? I understand free agency can be unpredictable and paying market value but the Jimmy Graham deal looked like a desperate bad deal from the beginning.There was hope that with his size and length, as well as playing with Rodgers he would be a great redzone threat and the missing piece to the offense. In reality, he was an aging, inconsistent tight end, that isn't very physical, doesn't have great hands, and who also struggles getting separation. These things were known before making him the highest paid TE in the league. Higher priced contracts naturally get more scrutiny as well. I am not someone who bangs the table for big time free agent signings but I am not sure I am understanding why it is "wildly unrealistic" for someone to want to the Packers to sign free agents while at the same time acknowledging when a signing ends up being a bust or in Jimmy Grahams case, was likely to be a bust from the beginning, especially for the contract he received.

 

Yes!

The NFL is a cash flush league. 31 other teams are all bidding on the same guy. That drives the prices on the few good players sky high. 

If you're going to pull good proven players, you're going to pay a big premium for the privilege.

[pacman5252]

8 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That's the beauty of Jimmy Graham, in theory.

He's a good enough blocker that he can beat up on 200lb CBs and most safeties.

He's a good enough receiving target that he can get open on 240lb LBs and most safeties.

You have to pick your poison if you're a defense.  

He’s not good enough today though.

On a per game basis hest averaging 41 yards a game which is 12th. That’s a whopping 9 yards more than te 22 (so a catch a game)

https://fantasyfootballers.org/te-tight-end-nfl-stats/

Is that worth 10m a year?... I don’t think we cut him since salary wise it doesn’t make much sense. Talking him up like the OP did though is lying to yourself though.

[dll2000]

On December 24, 2018 at 11:56 AM, packfanfb said:

You left out the minor detail about him being the highest paid TE in the league. There's your perspective.

You also left out the detail about him having Aaron Rodgers at QB, not Josh Allen or Ryan Tannehill. You also left out the detail that he plays on a team with exactly one weapon who (should) trump him for targets. Its not like we have Adams, Nelson, Jennings, Driver and then Graham. We have Adams.....and...no one...and Graham.

Trying to color Graham's year as anything but disappointing (even in his own words) is a lost cause and resorting to box score statistics isn't changing that. 

For $10 million a year, the guy is closer to a "bust" than "having a damn good year." In reality, he's been about average between the 20s and well below average inside the 20.

... And that's all I have to say about that.

You said it all man. You said it all.

[dll2000]

On December 24, 2018 at 12:02 PM, packfanfb said:

And that's the reason why I dont blame Gute one iota for making the move. He tried to make the team better, and you have to spend money to do that. We missed out on Robinson so Graham was the next best option on paper. 

It's also the same reason I wouldnt pay Jimmy Graham that same money in 2019. I'd move on. 

 

Robinson would have been a 100x better signing.  You should blame Gute for that. 

[Leader]

3 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Robinson would have been a 100x better signing.  You should blame Gute for that. 

Ya think Robinson had any part in HIS decision not to come to GB?

[dll2000]

6 minutes ago, Leader said:

Ya think Robinson had any part in HIS decision not to come to GB?

I went and looked.  He said he preferred Chi over GB because it was a little closer to home, but it was a minimal factor. All things being equal he preffered Chi.

That means a higher bid gets job done like it almost always does. 

Graham was just a bad signing. In real time and in hindsight as many pointed out.  Those defending it here are really doing some mental gymnastics.  Fuller or Robinson would have been good signings had they been completed.  I don't blame Gute for Fuller, actually a good either way, getting a good player or driving up cost for rival.  The actual signing would have freed up a draft pick.

Robinson was a real need though at a relatively affordable price coming off the bad injury and bad season. Also would have freed up draft picks for BPA rather than targeting needs. 

Close is for horsehoes and hand grenades. Ask us about Giants game and its implications or first GB game for that matter. 

You know Bears fans are really high on Pace right now, including me, but he missed on White and Floyd and MT have relatively underachieved to date.  I find that interesting.  Usually Gms make their reputation in first round.  Hindsight we take Mahomes of course.  Smith had a slow start, but that can blamed on hold out which can be blamed on Pace or Smith.  

Of course jury is still out on MT and Floyd plays well as an off ball LB and blitzer, and has been coming on lately as a straight pass rusher. 

 

 

 

[vegas492]

3 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

He’s not good enough today though.

On a per game basis hest averaging 41 yards a game which is 12th. That’s a whopping 9 yards more than te 22 (so a catch a game)

https://fantasyfootballers.org/te-tight-end-nfl-stats/

Is that worth 10m a year?... I don’t think we cut him since salary wise it doesn’t make much sense. Talking him up like the OP did though is lying to yourself though.

There is much more to a players game than simple catch/yard statistics.  Look at the coverage that he draws.  The perceived threat of Graham allows other guys more room to operate.  In the perfect world?  Well, the defense will have to give more coverage to Adams, MVS, ESB and that would allow Graham more 1:1 route options...hopefully next year.

Give it a little more time.  Despite that contract, his presence is certainly felt on the field.  And...he's no quitter.  He has openly said he expected more this year.  He's playing with a broken thumb.  And he's not complaining about being missed on routes.  Think of it...despite all that Finley was (pre-injury) his mouth was always working against him.  Cook?  Well, we know the front office sunk that one...well, the front office and/or his agent.  Bennett?  Quitter.  You can do far worse than Graham, today and I think he will continue to work to get better.  He's a pros pro.

[Kepler]

11 hours ago, Pugger said:

I was wondering the same thing...

The argument is what it has in common. Making an argument that one player should be cut based on the idea they didn't live up to their contract while sheltering another player from such criticism. Textbook hypocrisy.

[AlexGreen#20]

4 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

He’s not good enough today though.

On a per game basis hest averaging 41 yards a game which is 12th. That’s a whopping 9 yards more than te 22 (so a catch a game)

https://fantasyfootballers.org/te-tight-end-nfl-stats/

Is that worth 10m a year?... I don’t think we cut him since salary wise it doesn’t make much sense. Talking him up like the OP did though is lying to yourself though.

What is an average starting tight end pulling in the open market today? 6.5 million-ish?

Graham a little better than that, he's probably falling somewhere in the 8 million a year range. He's still a top 10 tight end talent wise.

Is he overpaid? Yep. Welcome to big name free agency when you're playing in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

[vegas492]

Allen Robinson's contract...3 years, 42M.    Cap hits of $11M, 15M, 15M.

Jimmy Graham's contract...3 years, 30M.  Capt hits of $5.9M, 12.6M, 11.6M.

Look, it is fun to play revisionist history and wonder what numbers Robinson would put up in year one with Rodgers.  But that was a very large contract for someone coming off of an injury.

Gute was in on him, and I think he was "in" on Robinson before he got Graham.  I think that Robinson's deal was too rich for Gute's liking, so he moved to his next best option.

I have no issue with that.

[KingOfTheNorth]

Not many TE's performed well this year. Graham has plenty of reasons why this season wasn't what was expected.  It was his 1st year in the offense, Rodgers has been off all year, and the play calling was suspect at best.  Next year brings a fresh start for everyone. No need to cut Graham, who has been a historically good player, because of 1 underwhelming season with the team.

[MacReady]

There are zero free agents who are "worth" their contract.  You are paying them more than their value to pick your team to sign with. 

This entire conversation is very simple:

1. How much do you save if you cut Jimmy Graham? 
-------5 million.
2. How much do you pay Jimmy Graham to NOT be a Packer next year if you cut him?
------7 million. 

The numbers don't add up.  You pay 7 million to not have him on the team while saving five million.  You are paying more than you save.  Unless we're living in some idiot world where 7 million is less than 5 million. 

The simple question/answer game continues. 

3. Is there a tight end that can match his production that can be signed for five million (cutting Jimmy savings)
------No.
4. Is there a tight end available in free agency period that can match Jimmy's production?
------No.

5. Is there a TE in the draft that can match his production?
-----Well, no.  Since the merger, 7 rookie tight ends have had 50 or more receptions.  Only seven.  Selected in any round, including undrafted.  That is since 1970 for people who don't know.  Of those 7 tight ends, 5 of them were first round picks, the other two were high second round picks.  Out of 633 rookie tight ends since 1970, 7 have had 50 or more receptions in their rookie year.  You have just over a 1% chance of a rookie tight end matching Jimmy's 2018 season.  That leads us to another question...

6. Is it worth a 1% chance to use a 2nd or first round pick on a TE to save 5 million dollars?
-----What in the hell do you think? 

7. Is tight end wildly important to our success in 2019?
-----No.  Rodgers won a Super Bowl with Finley on IR.  He won an MVP with Dickrod at TE.  Rodgers is not remotely close to TE obsessed as anyone here.  TE was a McCarthy thing.  TE was something McCarthy desperately wanted.  You think it's a coincidence the Packers went hard after Cook/Bennett/Graham in three consecutive years with two different GMs?  Nope, not a coincidence.  Ironic considering the hatred for McCarthy, and yet the shared obsession with him.  How many times did McCarthy talk about big guys running down the middle of the field?  McCarthy is gone. 

8. Is TE needed to compete for Super Bowls?
------It really isn't.  The best team in the NFC has a geriatric Watson at TE.  The second best team in the NFC doesn't even throw to their tight ends.  The Patriots are undefeated in Super Bowls without Gronkowski since he's been in the league.  TE is not wildly important. 

Jimmy Graham is not worth his contract.  Tough mammaries, that's the price you pay for free agents.  If you cut every player who wasn't worth their contract, you'd have to have just about every single player on your team on their rookie contracts. 

This argument just has to die.  We're not talking about saving 5 million dollars for nothing.

We are saving five million dollars while losing out on 50 receptions and 600 yards and a huge opportunity for second year connection with Rodgers. 

 

[dll2000]

2 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Allen Robinson's contract...3 years, 42M.    Cap hits of $11M, 15M, 15M.

Jimmy Graham's contract...3 years, 30M.  Capt hits of $5.9M, 12.6M, 11.6M.

Look, it is fun to play revisionist history and wonder what numbers Robinson would put up in year one with Rodgers.  But that was a very large contract for someone coming off of an injury.

Gute was in on him, and I think he was "in" on Robinson before he got Graham.  I think that Robinson's deal was too rich for Gute's liking, so he moved to his next best option.

I have no issue with that.

High end FA WR's cost more than high end FA TE's typically. 

Jimmy didn't look good in SEA and seems to be on a steady decline.  Couple that with usual poor effort in blocking and his price tag and you can see why many Packer's fans are legit disappointed.  It was objectively a bad signing.  

Robinson is 24 years old, he may be 25 now.  Graham is 32.  The injury did make it a risk, but he would have commanded so much more without the injury.  The risk also made it a potential bargin.

I fully expect Robinson to look much better next year as most people do their second year off that injury.  I think it isn't a stretch to say he would have had a better season in 2018 in GB too and not even hit his prime.  

As an allocation of funds Robinson would have been a far better choice is all I am saying.  It also frees up draft picks.  I believe GB threw a lot of darts at WR position in draft and may have found a good one, who knows.  But they could have also spent those picks on other players.  Now they are in a situation where they still may need improvement at WR and TE after having spent on TE.

 

 

 

 

[MacReady]

Just now, dll2000 said:

Jimmy didn't look good in SEA and seems to be on a steady decline.

Jimmy Graham had 10 touchdowns in Seattle.  That's one more touchdown than red zone targets he's had with us this year.

Wait for this little lesson in patience:

Jimmy Graham had 48 receptions, 605 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first year in Seattle.
Jimmy Graham has 52 receptions, 615 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first year here.

Jimmy Graham had 65 receptions for 923 yards and 6 touchdowns in his second year in Seattle.

Then Jimmy Graham had 10 touchdown receptions in his last year in Seattle. 

It's almost like maybe Jimmy benefits from having a full season with a QB.  It's almost like patience pays off with him. 

[vegas492]

15 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

High end FA WR's cost more than high end FA TE's typically. 

Jimmy didn't look good in SEA and seems to be on a steady decline.  Couple that with usual poor effort in blocking and his price tag and you can see why many Packer's fans are legit disappointed.  It was objectively a bad signing.  

Robinson is 24 years old, he may be 25 now.  Graham is 32.  The injury did make it a risk, but he would have commanded so much more without the injury.  The risk also made it a potential bargin.

I fully expect Robinson to look much better next year as most people do their second year off that injury.  I think it isn't a stretch to say he would have had a better season in 2018 in GB too and not even hit his prime.  

As an allocation of funds Robinson would have been a far better choice is all I am saying.  It also frees up draft picks.  I believe GB threw a lot of darts at WR position in draft and may have found a good one, who knows.  But they could have also spent those picks on other players.  Now they are in a situation where they still may need improvement at WR and TE after having spent on TE.

 

 

 

 

So you are paying Robinson that money for basically a red shirt year because of injury?  And that is a better use of money?

You seem to be willing to give Robinson time, with that deal, but not Graham?

The rookies proved that you didn't need a high priced WR.  Allison was proving it as well.  That Robinson deal is an example of how sometimes the best deals are the ones you do not make.

Now...applying that same logic, perhaps Graham would have been one to avoid as well.  But, the cost was less and there is potential there.  And his season wasn't all that bad, all things considered.

You want to give Robinson time while paying him.  Give Graham time, too.