patriotsheatyan Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Taking into account things like lucky bounces, strength of schedule, injury regression to mean, off season capital, QB play, coaching, point differential, and team age... Which teams are most likely to see significant improvement or regression next year at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 The Patriots come to mind when it comes to regression. They have had their struggles this season just to get to where they are right now. Brady isnt getting any younger, Gronk isnt the same with all the injuries he has dealt with plus maybe the Patriots actually do trade him this offseason. Edelman is also showing age plus injuries is catching up with him too. The Patriots dont have offensive weapons outside of the backs that can threaten anyone. The defense isnt all that good. Not to mention the Pats could be losing alot of their coaching staff, in particular the OC in McDaniels to another team to be a HC. The only saving grace for the Pats is they play in a terrible division where even if the Pats fall to 9 wins next season they still should win the AFC East. Now getting the 1, 2, or 3 seed I believe wont be in their favor but still they dont have to be great to win their division but I do see slippage next season by them. As for improvements, I think the Eagles and Falcons. The issue with both teams was injuries. Wentz coming back from an injury that was far worst than many believed was going to take awhile. He should be back next year closer to where he was in 2017. The Eagles should improve in the running game with a good to great back. The secondary will be back healthy. I just think the Eagles will bounce back to winning 10+ games next season. The Falcons too will get back healthy. They didnt have Freeman which their running game took a big hit. Their defense took a big hit after Week 1 and never was the same. Ridley should even better next season which is scary to deal with to go along with Julio and Sanu. If they can get a better OC I would feel more confident but I just think being healthy will help the Falcons get back to winning and having a successful season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footbull3196 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 The Texans. They won a game on a missed field goal, won another almost solely because of a decision by the other team to go for it on 4th down in their own territory, won another because Nathan Peterman was forced into the game, and won another because Alex Smith had his leg snapped in half. There’s no way that type of luck will be sustained next year and I definitely expect some regression to the mean from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Chiefs. They have a horrible defense and this type of offense isn't sustainable and teams will spend the whole off season studying ways to counter it. Mahomes with more tape on him will also be a thing. You can't expect a repeat of an insane peak like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footbull3196 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 43 minutes ago, stl4life07 said: The Patriots come to mind when it comes to regression. They have had their struggles this season just to get to where they are right now. Brady isnt getting any younger, Gronk isnt the same with all the injuries he has dealt with plus maybe the Patriots actually do trade him this offseason. Edelman is also showing age plus injuries is catching up with him too. The Patriots dont have offensive weapons outside of the backs that can threaten anyone. The defense isnt all that good. Not to mention the Pats could be losing alot of their coaching staff, in particular the OC in McDaniels to another team to be a HC. The only saving grace for the Pats is they play in a terrible division where even if the Pats fall to 9 wins next season they still should win the AFC East. Now getting the 1, 2, or 3 seed I believe wont be in their favor but still they dont have to be great to win their division but I do see slippage next season by them. As for improvements, I think the Eagles and Falcons. The issue with both teams was injuries. Wentz coming back from an injury that was far worst than many believed was going to take awhile. He should be back next year closer to where he was in 2017. The Eagles should improve in the running game with a good to great back. The secondary will be back healthy. I just think the Eagles will bounce back to winning 10+ games next season. The Falcons too will get back healthy. They didnt have Freeman which their running game took a big hit. Their defense took a big hit after Week 1 and never was the same. Ridley should even better next season which is scary to deal with to go along with Julio and Sanu. If they can get a better OC I would feel more confident but I just think being healthy will help the Falcons get back to winning and having a successful season. I can see the Falcons winning the division next season, especially if they fire Sarkisian and replace him with a better offensive coordinator. It doesn’t even have to be a Shanahan clone, just someone who can make the most out of all their weapons. Also will help if they get literally anything out of Devonta Freeman next year, which I can also see if he’s not injured again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, footbull3196 said: The Texans. They won a game on a missed field goal, won another almost solely because of a decision by the other team to go for it on 4th down in their own territory, won another because Nathan Peterman was forced into the game, and won another because Alex Smith had his leg snapped in half. There’s no way that type of luck will be sustained next year and I definitely expect some regression to the mean from them While I can't disagree with anything you're saying, I'll mention that the Texans have two distinct weaknesses - OL and CB. With the 4th most cap space and three picks in the top 64, I'm of the mindset they'll aggressively fill those holes, keep key guys and not find themselves in the position to have to win games on luck. In short - it'll be a wash; They won't win some of those close games, but won't be let down by their secondary (like vs the Eagles or Giants) or their OL (Patriots, Titans, Colts) in some of their losses. Of course, it could all go out the window with this coaching staff. That's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Hard to tell really from year to year. Parity in the League and unforeseen Injuries are real. Unfortunately the only constant in the NFL is the GD Patriots. Until Brady and Belichick hang it up that is. It's Not like anyone in that division is kicking down doors anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slingin' Sammy Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Any one of the top three seeds in each conference could take a step back next year. I certainly don't expect the Saints, Rams, Bears, Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans to be as good next season. Most of them will probably still be legit playoff teams, but a couple will miss or only make it in with 10-6/9-7 type records. It happens every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I'll take this the opposite way and say there is just no way the niners are -21 in turnovers next year. We are 32nd in takeaways with 2 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries for a total of 7 takeaways. SEVEN! The lions are the 31st team in takeaways with 13! That's basically double. We are 30th in giveaways having 17 interceptions and 11 fumbles for a total 28 giveaways. Its actually gotten somewhat better recently, we were on pace after like 9 games to be -45 or something. There is just no way that continues next season (even though Garoppolo does turn the ball over more than he should). Even if we turn the ball over a lot next year, you have to think we will at least get to double digits in takeaways. Cleveland last year was -28 but they had 13 takeaways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, N4L said: I'll take this the opposite way and say there is just no way the niners are -21 in turnovers next year. We are 32nd in takeaways with 2 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries for a total of 7 takeaways. SEVEN! The lions are the 31st team in takeaways with 13! That's basically double. We are 30th in giveaways having 17 interceptions and 11 fumbles for a total 28 giveaways. Its actually gotten somewhat better recently, we were on pace after like 9 games to be -45 or something. There is just no way that continues next season (even though Garoppolo does turn the ball over more than he should). Even if we turn the ball over a lot next year, you have to think we will at least get to double digits in takeaways. Cleveland last year was -28 but they had 13 takeaways I was going to post similar for the same reason. Even if we made no changes to personnel, through sheer variance we should be better next year. Obviously I expect us to be better record wide for other reasons as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 14 hours ago, stl4life07 said: The Patriots come to mind when it comes to regression. They have had their struggles this season just to get to where they are right now. Brady isnt getting any younger, Gronk isnt the same with all the injuries he has dealt with plus maybe the Patriots actually do trade him this offseason. Edelman is also showing age plus injuries is catching up with him too. The Patriots dont have offensive weapons outside of the backs that can threaten anyone. The defense isnt all that good. Not to mention the Pats could be losing alot of their coaching staff, in particular the OC in McDaniels to another team to be a HC. The only saving grace for the Pats is they play in a terrible division where even if the Pats fall to 9 wins next season they still should win the AFC East. Now getting the 1, 2, or 3 seed I believe wont be in their favor but still they dont have to be great to win their division but I do see slippage next season by them. The same was said in 2013 that NE would be a dead fish in the water. Wake me up when it actually happens. Patriots played terribly this season and still were only the Miami miracle away from the usual 12-4 season. If they actually get some decent weapons instead of relying on PEDelman and washed Gronk, they'll be better. And it's not like any other AFC team is looking like a future dynasty either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 If Ben retires, the Steelers are done. I don’t see Cincinnati being as terrible as they have been IF Marvin is let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 hour ago, SBLIII said: The same was said in 2013 that NE would be a dead fish in the water. Wake me up when it actually happens. Patriots played terribly this season and still were only the Miami miracle away from the usual 12-4 season. If they actually get some decent weapons instead of relying on PEDelman and washed Gronk, they'll be better. And it's not like any other AFC team is looking like a future dynasty either. I get what you are saying but this feels different. I said before the season started the Pats wasnt going to be a great team this season. I was right. They lost 3 road games even before the Miami miracle game that they had no business losing. You could convince me about the Jags loss but those three games were to up and down teams. The Pats are over the long run the most consistent team in the NFL. Losing to up and down teams 3 times then if you add the Dolphins, 4 times, thats not a good sign. Maybe if it was only 2 random losses Id understand but I cant understand 4 losses. The Steelers loss I get so Im not counting them. Then you factor in, the Patriots was a yard short against the Bears from them possibly tying things up and going into OT with a chance to win. Thanks to Brady leading a game-winning drive against the Chiefs because if that didnt happen, the Chiefs wouldve won. Like the Patriots just dont look the same. Sure if they can get better weapons this offseasn for Brady things could be different but Im not trusting that until I see it. Next season the Pats seem like a 10 win team thats going to win its division by default and possibly end up with the 3 seed at best. They were fortunate the Texans, Steelers, and Colts stumbled out of the gates early before getting hot. We know the Steelers got back in a slump but had those teams not gotten off to slow starts the Pats wouldve been in the 3 seed right now at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvmillion83 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 This exercise seems a little bit tougher this year. All of these teams still have a bright outlook next season. A few will have much tougher roads: Chicago- The defense is for real but their takeaway/giveaway stats are dominant. Look how these aren't swinging in Jacksonville's favor this year. Also they've only played four games all year against teams still in playoff contention. Trubisky has a nice future and is the answer but hasn't proved to be a good road QB. Next year they'll have a first place schedule facing the Saints & Rams. They're also at risk of losing some of their staff including Fangio if he lands a HC gig. NE- Tom Brady will be 42, Gronk's future is in question and there's been talk about coaching personnel looking elsewhere for opportunities. With Darnold and Allen taking some steps forward in the AFC East, things might be tougher for NE. However we've been saying this for a few years now. Texans- I believe Houston can shore up its issues at offensive line and in their secondary through the offseason but this is more of a competition thing in the AFC South. Houston benefited from the other three teams having bad starts to the season. It wasn't long ago that Houston was winning this division by default with journeymen qbs but it also wasn't that long ago that Luck won a few division titles. Houston's also tied for 2nd in takeaway/giveaway ratios this season which will be tough to sustain next year. This is going to be a more competitive division next year. New Orleans- They're still a playoff team next year but Atlanta & Carolina should rebound. Their rosters are too good to expect more regression. Seattle- This is more of an NFC West factor that SF is expected to rebound back and be one of the top sleeper teams heading into the '19 season. Between SEA, SF, and the Rams, this will be a competitive division. Teams due to rebound Atlanta- One of the best rosters in the NFL. Their offense is loaded and their defense will be healthy. Philly- Another team with one of the best rosters in the NFL. They should have better luck with injuries. SF- This is an obvious one. Dead last in TO differential. Lost their starting QB and RB by the end of Week 3. They have to work on that defense in the offseason. Bills- This was the worst team on paper heading into the '18 season mainly because of the offense. McDermott has them playing hard week to week. I think with some improvements on offense, this D (I think they could be top 5 in '19) will be the reason why they surprise in '19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Falcons will be better. Ravens will be worse. The wheels come off the Steelers next season methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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