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AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Chiefs


DigInBoys

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3 minutes ago, Plat2 said:

Do the Chiefs run zone coverage alot too? Lol

They are actually one of the biggest man teams in the league. But they aren't incredibly effective at (24th defense in points, 31st in passing yards against, 31st in points against the pass). It just means they won't give up the easy play, but they have a ton of gaps on defense. 

The Patriots are actually statistically far and away the best defense in the playoffs left and the only top 10 in points there. They also showed in the first half of the regular season game that they can stifle the Chiefs offense. The close score was a bit misleading on the defense as there was a turnover and kickoff/punt that made a big difference there.

This game really comes down to which Patriots team shows up. They have beaten some great teams pretty efficiently this year. But they've had sloppy as anything games sprinkled in. If the Pats come in with a good game plan and play a well executed game, they will win. If they have an uneven game they will lose. I know that sounds simple, but that's just what it is. 

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4 minutes ago, Habbsawce said:

Patriots will have to replicate what the Ravens did on defense. They are the only team this year to actually confuse Mahomes.

Or just replicate their first half in the last game. People forget but that score was really the result of two seperate miscommunications on coverage, a turnover, and a big runback. That's the slopiness the Patriots need to avoid. 

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Hope I’m wrong, but I’m picking KC. In Kansas City, I think it’ll be a high scoring affair where Mahomes pulls away late. Damien Williams will be a big factor the way Hunt was in their Week 1 matchup two seasons ago.

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2 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

Hard to bet against the Pats.

It is but they've been pretty bad on the road this year. 

And all of their recent playoff losses (other than the SB which is neutral) have been on the road. I just don't know how confident I am in the Chiefs/Reid to not choke. 

I'll go with the Chiefs but admittedly it's just as much because I want to see someone new as it is thinking they'll actually win. 

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I think we pull this one out, largely because it's at home. If it was in Foxborough, they'd probably have us, but they squeaked by us there before, and their home/away splits were pretty staggering this year, so I'm not expecting the Pats to play as well as they did the first go round. We might not play as well either, but I think we do well enough.

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47 minutes ago, Plat2 said:

Do the Chiefs run zone coverage alot too? Lol

We're a heavy man coverage team. Like we're second or third in man coverage percent. Something like that. Which poses it's own, separate issues. The Pats have beat us a lot in the past with crossing routes by their slot receivers, pick routes, and wheel/circle/other routes by James White. Or they get Gronk lined up on guys like Ron Parker and exploit. A bit less of a schematic gimme as you don't know who is going to win or lose their 1 on 1, but we lack talent/skill in enough spots that they'll exploit our obsession with man.

I'm hoping Dorian O'Daniel gets a lot of playing time. He got more and more snaps down the stretch, and basically he's an ILB with the coverage skills and range of a S. He's absolute money covering RBs out of the backfield. He's just undersized and not quite as reliable against TEs.

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16 minutes ago, Spartica4Real said:

It is but they've been pretty bad on the road this year. 

And all of their recent playoff losses (other than the SB which is neutral) have been on the road. I just don't know how confident I am in the Chiefs/Reid to not choke. 

I'll go with the Chiefs but admittedly it's just as much because I want to see someone new as it is thinking they'll actually win. 

Playoffs are a different beast.     

The fact that the game is in KC and not in Foxboro is definitely big, but the fact remains Im not betting against the Pats vs anyone in the AFCC game.

And I would much rather see the Chiefs win as well....but I'm a realist.

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Chiefs. They will finally hoist the Lamar Hunt trophy, in their own stadium, en route to the Super Bowl. The franchise has had a dark history with playoff success, but they never had a quarterback like Mahomes either. 

At this point I hope they go all the way, just so the Rams and Saints don't win the crown. Patriots have had their fill as well. 

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Pats stunned me today. I was extremely confident the Chargers would win and set up a third meeting with the Chiefs. Very impressed with how New England played, and so disappointed in LA. Bill and Brady still have some juice in the tank. 

Having said that, this Patriot team still isn't exceptionally talented. They won't execute as well this week, on the road, in one of the most hostile environments there is in the league. They've not only struggled on the road this year, but also in the playoffs during years past. 

Andy has played relatively well against the Pats since he arrived in KC. He's 2-2 despite three of the games being in Foxborough. Both wins were double digit victories. Each loss was only by one score. In three of the four games, his teams scored 40+. 

A big key will be what Chiefs defense shows up, the one for most of the regular season, or the one that stifled the Colts last Saturday. Chiefs getting interior pressure is a big X-factor. 

Keep an eye on the weather for this weekend. Another winter storm is forecast to hit Saturday and clear in time for Sunday, but temperatures are projected to be in the teens around game time. Brady is used to playing in cold playoff games, and despite the fact that Mahomes has a cannon for an arm, the elements may help to slow down his vaunted passing attack. Then again, Brady is also 41 years old and doesn't have nearly the weapons that Mahomes has on the outside. 

I'll take the Chiefs to pull it out, 27-23.

 

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Chiefs please, I am happy to have a division rival go to the Super Bowl if it means we get to see some new blood in the Super Bowl.  It would be amazing if Brady was able to get to and win yet another Super Bowl, but I just want to see someone else play in it.

I’m good with either team from the NFC, so just hoping for a good game to watch next week.

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