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Super Bowl LIII: Rams vs. Patriots - Poll Added!

DigInBoys

By DigInBoys
in NFL General

Super Bowl LIII  

219 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the Super Bowl?

    • Rams
      67
    • Patriots
      152

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stl4life07

stl4life07

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18 minutes ago, MVPatrickMahomes15 said:

The one and only correct choice here is New England. A rational mind simply cannot justify taking Goff and McVay over Bill Belichick and Thomas Edward Patrick Brady.

I agree but at the same time last time I checked didnt the Patriots lose to the Eagles last year? We all know that they shouldve lost to the Falcons the year before. It took an epic comeback to win. 

Ill continue to ride the narrative of it cant be Goff and McVay. Even though if Goff beats Brady he will be the first QB since Kaep in 2012 to have beaten ARod, Brees, and Brady in the same season. Not to mention Goff beat Rivers, Wilson (twice), the soon to be MVP Mahomes, and the fully guaranteed Cousins as well this season. 

 

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stl4life07

stl4life07

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10 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

I don't care how big a comeback it was, you can't say the Falcons should've won the way they blew the second half.

i agree but my point I was trying to make was how many "rational" minds thought Ryan and Quinn led Falcons team would be up 28-3 over Belichick and Brady in the Superbowl where the Patriots had to even have that big comeback? Wouldnt it be that Belichick and Brady that have all this experience wont allow themselves to get down that big over an inexperienced Falcons team? Or with all that experience they wouldnt allow themselves to let Foles and Pederson led Falcons team run up and down the field on them and end up winning? Thats all Im pointing out. I get nobody wants to bet against Belichick and Brady but the last two years suggest that you technically can. McVay and Goff has a good enough chance if not better than what we saw the Eagles did and what the Falcons was doing for most of that game. 

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Matt Nagy on the game:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/28/super-bowl-liii-patriots-rams-preview-analysis-arrival-atlanta-mmqb

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We’re starting with Nagy, and his keys for a game that pairs two teams that contrast one another (old versus young) on the surface, but probably mirror each other more than you would think.

Nagy’s Bears choked out the Rams 15-6 on Dec. 9, a frigid Sunday night in Chicago.

The Patriots outlasted the Bears 38-31 seven weeks earlier at Soldier Field.

So Chicago got to see different versions of the two teams. New England rolled in on fire, coming off a win over the Chiefs, in the midst of six-game winning streak. The Rams were not. December was inarguably their worst month. But Nagy studied both all the way through the year—the Patriots and Rams offenses are on his Monday morning “watch list,” among the teams he mines the tape of, for ideas to take.

With that as the backdrop, and with the big game just six days away, Nagy and I went through all the themes and matchups that highlight Super Bowl LIII. Here are a few of those …

The Patriots’ big-boy look unlocks their versatility. New England has quietly become a power running team behind a mammoth offensive line, fullback James Develin and an army of backs led by rookie Sony Michel. And their ability to toggle between that look and Tom Brady piloting a shotgun spread makes them a you-know-what to deal with on a down-to-down basis.

“It’s like, ‘You’re gonna do this, we’ll do that. You’re gonna do that, we’ll do this,’” said Nagy. “They can spread you out in five wide, and slice and dice you, then they can say, ‘We’ll play big-boy ball,’ put the fullback in the game and pound you with the run and play-action. If they can do both, spread them out in empty and get the run game going with the fullback, that’s gonna be a big-time advantage.”

That, by the way, makes these Patriots a little different from other recent versions, and lightens the burden on Brady of carrying them.

The Rams are different but similarly tough to deal with. The foundation of what McVay does is very Shanahan-ian: marry the run game to the passing game, and make lots of different things look the same. That transfers the pressure to be complex to defend from the players to the coaches.

“It’s just a matter of doing three or four things out of the same look, which makes it hard,” Nagy said. “And unlike the RPO teams, where you’re doing all this stuff in the ’gun, and going that route making things look the same, [McVay] does it from under center. And that’s where I think it’s unique, whether it’s a stretch zone or a naked or a screen or a shot with max protection, it’s really hard to defend those at the same time. And when you get the run game going as well with those guys, it’s difficult.

“What I’ve seen, and what I think he’s done such a great job of is, offensively, he never deviated just because maybe it didn’t work one week or another. He just sticks to it and puts a little twist.”

This, by the way, is a big reason why Mike Shanahan (under whom McVay coached with Washington) always gave Belichick trouble.

The game might come down to second-tier guys. When I asked Nagy about stars like Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks matching up on the New England defense, he said, “They’ll have a good plan for those guys, for sure. So whether it’s your third guy or your fourth guy, if you have a matchup that you like, then that’s where you can get them. Your other guys have to make plays when given opportunities.”

Last year in the Super Bowl, that was Corey Clement for the Eagles. And it’s why when I asked Nagy for an X factor for the Rams, he said he’d take Robert Woods and Gerald Everett, guys who’ll get less attention and may draw the kinds of matchups Nagy referenced. Then, I asked for the Patriots’ X factor, and similar logic applied.

“I think it’s Chris Hogan,” Nagy said. “He didn’t do a whole lot against the Chiefs, but he’s sneaky good. He could have a big game—he’s good against zone defense, and they’re gonna have a plan for Edelman. So I could see him having a nice game.”

The first quarter could be key. Here’s an interesting fact: The Rams didn’t hold a second-half lead in any of their three losses. You might think that shows they struggle from behind. But after last week, we know that’s not really the case. More so, it’s proof that they’re that much better playing with a lead.

“When they play with the lead—and that’s anybody—but they’re really, really difficult to stop when they have the lead and they’re dictating the pace and the tempo of the game,” Nagy said. “When they score a touchdown in the red zone and get the lead, they’re really efficient and they’re tough to stop. If you get them into a situation where they’re in the shotgun on every play because they’re behind, and the play-action doesn’t really work, as it is with any team, they get one-dimensional.

“Just because of all the stuff they do, Sean stays really aggressive, he’ll make some really aggressive play calls with the lead, and he makes it really hard for you to get any tendencies on what they do.”

So make the Rams one-dimensional? In a word, yes. Whether it’s Gurley or C.J. Anderson back there, letting the Rams run the ball has been a death sentence for their opponents. Just five teams held L.A. under 100 yards rushing during the regular season. Three of them won—that’s all three of the Rams’ defeats. Last week the Saints made it six, and it took all the Rams had to get past them.

Nagy made this one simple. I asked what New England had to take away. He answered, “It’s the run game. They have to shut that run game down. If they don’t, it’s hard to beat that team. If they get that run game going, they’re hard to stop.”

The reason? The run game basically activates everything for that offense. And Jared Goff is better throwing off run action (via both traditional motion and jet motion) than he is in the dropback game.

Circle 99. You get Nagy going on Aaron Donald and … “99 is just on another level. The way he played this year—I mean if you don’t know where he’s at on every play, you’re in trouble. I go back to when we were getting ready to play the Rams. What I saw from watching Aaron Donald, even if he wasn’t making plays, you always had to prepare yourself. And when you first start getting comfortable, and think you’ve got him taken care of, he always finds a way.”

Simply put, the Rams have to beat the Patriots the way the 2007 and ’11 Giants did, or Wade Phillips’ Broncos did, or the way the Eagles did at the end of last year’s Super Bowl—by going up main street. If they can get inside pressure on Brady, they’re in business.

“They need to win the battle up front, their defensive line has to win their one-on-one matchups and get pressure on Brady,” Nagy said. “If they can get pressure on Brady, as with any quarterback, they’ll have a chance. If you don’t get pressure on Brady, you don’t have a shot.”

Nagy will be back from a few days off next week for NFL Honors, and then he’ll beat it out of Atlanta before kickoff. But that doesn’t mean he’s not going to watch the game. He’s planning to tune in, as much to see what more he can take from the two teams playing as anything.

“It is painful but I kind of like it, because it makes you want to get to that point,” he said. “Like I said, you’ll never ever, ever see me watching a Super Bowl game from the stands. I won’t be at a Super Bowl that I’m not on the sidelines for. So that’s easy, but I will watch it on TV. And you learn from it.”

 

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Peter King driving and talking with Sean McVay:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/super-bowl-53-sean-mcvay-drive-rams-patriots-fmia-peter-king/

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FMIA—Driving The 101 With Sean McVay: On Texting Belichick, Trusting Goff and the Plan for Super Bowl 53

 
57-73 minutes

ENCINO, Calif. — Sean McVay said he’d be leaving his home for work Saturday at 4:15 a.m., Insane Standard Time. But there he was, on Coughlin Time, at 4:10, opening his Range Rover driver-side door in this silent neighborhood in the hills north of Los Angeles.

“I felt bad about you waiting out here,” said McVay, perky even two hours before dawn.

Truth is, I had no idea if he’d be on time or a half-hour early for our date, a ride to his office on the last day of Super Bowl LIII preparation at the Rams’ home base. So I got to his place at 3:30 a.m. PT and waited. McVay, about to be the youngest coach in Super Bowl history (he turned 33 last Thursday), is so excited about his job, it’s hard for him to sleep. On this night, he got about four-and-a-half hours. “I gotta do better,” he said. “Big week coming up.”

For the Rams, Super Bowl week is a stunning culmination of the franchise turnaround executed by the energetic McVay. But it’s no time for McVay, exactly half Bill Belichick’s age, to turn all doe-eyed about the craziness of what he and the Rams (26-9 under McVay) have done. Though he is gee-whiz about it all—and you’ll hear that plenty in the next few minutes—you could feel a more chip-on-his-shoulder McVay when I asked him, “How do you think you guys will play next week?”

“If we continue to prepare like we have, I think we’ll play well,” he said. “Our guys have a nice confidence and respect for the Patriots. But I don’t think for a second this game will be too big for our team. I know that we don’t have a lot of the experience New England has, and I respect that. But we’re confident. The Patriots are a great team but I think we’re pretty good too.”

Entering the 101 North, headed to the Rams training facility.

“What would you be doing right now if you were alone in the car?”

“Maybe calling my parents, or friends back east,” McVay said, steering the truck into the right lane in the darkness. “Probably, I’d be listening to a book on tape that my grandfather [former Niners executive John McVay] got me: Mike Lombardi’s ‘Gridiron Genius.’ It’s focused on Bill Walsh and Bill Belichick—Mike worked for both of them. It’s got a lot of great stuff. I’ve read all Bill Walsh’s books just based on my grandfather’s history and so much of what we do stems from a lot of the things that they did. But now I’ve gotten to know Bill [Belichick]—we talked at the combine last year—so that’s been cool.

“He was really great in the conversation we had, really enlightening. This is wild: This season, he has basically texted me after every one of our games. After we beat Minnesota in September, he texted, ‘Man, you guys are really explosive and impressive and fun to watch. Congratulations—keep it rolling.’ For him to even take the time to say congrats, it’s pretty cool. That’s one of the things I like about our business, our fraternity of coaches. As competitive as it is, guys find time to share when they can. I’m still young, still figuring it out. That stuff’s been really helpful to me.”

Maybe it’s not just the professor, Belichick, giving the answers to the test to the student, McVay. McVay’s got a lot to share too. I’ve met two other current head coaches (not in the McVay’s NFC West) who have sought advice on offensive trends and schemes from him, though he’s more than a decade younger than they are. Belichick keeps relationships with lots of coaches who aren’t just the big-name guys. He wants to learn what’s new and what’s next.

mcvay-belichick-e1548633833541.jpg?w=100 Sean McVay and Bill Belichick. (Getty Images/2)

All sorts of NFL traditions are being broken in the modern game. If short quarterbacks can play, and Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield obviously can, then why can’t a 5-foot-9-and-change passer like Kyler Murray get picked in the first round and make it? “I see Murray going in the mid-first round,” draft authority Gil Brandt said the other day. And if kid coaches can lead and prove to players they can make them better, players will follow. Last week, star Rams wideout Brandin Cooks called McVay “Einstein.”

There’s an allegorical story that’s important to why McVay is here. It has to do with running a bit more of a democracy than some old-time coaches would be comfortable. In high school, McVay was an option quarterback at Brookhaven (Ga.) Marist School, and, as a senior in 2003, his team trailed a defensively superior team, Shaw High, 17-12, in the fourth quarter of a state quarterfinal game. Marist had the ball at the Shaw 5-yard line. Third-and-goal. Timeout. McVay went to the sidelines. Coaches wanted to call a power-run to the right. McVay’s suggestion of a naked bootleg won.

“That’s kind of a blur right now,” McVay said, eyes straight ahead on the 101. “This was one of the best defenses in the state—they’d dominated everybody they had played. And we ran a couple plays where you could feel they were pursuing hard off their edges. We just kinda had an intuition that if we just sold out to the power run … we were a power wishbone team … if I kept that ball and just hid it right on my stomach and booted it wide left, there was a chance we’d walk in. So we called it. We called ‘Fake 32 Wham Naked Left.’ Our backs did such a good job selling [the fake] that the Shaw guys tackled everybody and they were celebrating like they’d won the game right there when I was running into the opposite end of the end zone. We won 18-17.”

Moral of the story?

“Listen to players,” McVay said. “Players have the best feel for the game. Especially guys who have the right insight and the right understanding of what’s going on. Giving them that ownership, they’re likely to make it work.

“Players get an intricate feel being out there, more than I have as a coach on the sideline. There are nuances of the game that I can’t feel on the sideline.”

“Got an example? Maybe something Jared Goff felt last week in New Orleans?” I asked.

“Hundred percent,” McVay said. “So this was arguably one of Jared’s best throws, where he throws the deep out to Cooks in the third quarter.”

First down Rams, at their 37, 7:06 left in the third quarter. Saints 20, Rams 10. Goff, at the line, stepped back from center. He gathered himself, and for about two seconds, he starred at the ground like he was concentrating, maybe trying to hear something. He was trying to hear, in fact … the voice of his coach. With 21 seconds left on the play clock before coach-to-quarterback communication shut off at 15 seconds, McVay called the “Blaze Out” play. Goff yelled something and signaled to the lone receiver to the left, Cooks. Three receivers in a bunch right next to the right tackle—wideouts Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds, and tight end Gerald Everett—leaned in to get the new call.

As McVay explained: “Jared had suggested that because he felt like some of the underneath zoning defenders were making him feel like, ‘I gotta really layer this ball, and I’d rather be able to drive it to Brandin.’ Usually, Brandin runs an in-breaking route there, but I could tell from talking to Jared, he’d feel a lot better throwing an out-route to the sideline.“

Translation: In this one-by-three-receiver formation, instead of Goff aiming to throw to one of the three men in the bunch with more traffic around them, and having to “layer” the ball, or throw it with touch between the linebackers and the safeties, he preferred to throw it against the Saints’ best cover player, Marshon Lattimore, because there’d likely be no cover help on that side. Cooks, running what the Rams called a “Blaze Out,” would win that battle. If he ran inside, linebacker A.J. Klein would be there creating traffic, and Goff would have to “layer” the ball over him and under Lattimore. Not optimal.

The ball traveled with heat, and 24 yards in the air, straight to Cooks on the sideline at the Saints’ 49-yard line. Gain of 14. Perfect throw, in tight coverage. “Best throw he’s made all day,” Troy Aikman said on TV.

“So,” McVay said, “the drive before he had asked me, Can we throw the Blaze Out? I said, ‘Hey, if you feel comfortable with it, your ownership. You’re more likely to make it work.’

“That’s a level of trust right there. If he hadn’t said he wanted to throw the Blaze Out, I wouldn’t have called it.”

First time in my life I found myself wishing for traffic on a highway. Thick, snarled traffic. I had 48 more topics to discuss, but with each story McVay detailed, the tributaries grew, and they all were interesting.

But I really wanted to hear what happened on Nov. 8, 2015, in Foxboro.

“2015,” I said. “New England 27, Washington 10. You’re the offensive coordinator for Washington, and I think that’s the only time in your five years as a play-caller you’ve faced Belichick.”

Rueful smile behind the wheel.

“Oh yeah, that was a … I’ll tell you what. Not good. And our touchdown that day was a cheap touchdown, last minute, in a two-minute drive when the game was over. Coach Belichick and [defensive coordinator Matt] Patricia took us to the woodshed. Very humbling day.

“Couple things. That was the first time I’d been to Foxboro. You come out for warmups, before actual team warmups. That song by Jay-Z, ‘My name is Hov,’ starts blasting in the stadium, and you see Tom Brady walking out by himself. Fans are going crazy. I’m in the corner of the field like, Oh man! I wanna clap for him! Then you’re thinking, like, Oh crap. How we gonna win this one?

gettyimages-496326876.jpg?w=1024&h=684 Tom Brady and the Pats cruised the only time they faced a staff featuring Sean McVay. New England beat Washington 27-10 on Nov. 8, 2015, when McVay was the Redskins offensive coordinator. (Getty Images)

“This is something that I haven’t said to anybody really other than some coaches. But it really gives you an appreciation for just the experience factor of the Patriots. My first year as offensive coordinator, Jay’s first year as the head coach in Washington, 2014, we practiced against the Patriots in training camp. I remember watching their operation. The efficiency … not a single minute wasted. When we would have the special-teams period—every single player with the Patriots, if you’re not involved with an urgency in special teams, the offensive coaches and defensive coaches had their own individual drills set up where they’re maximizing every minute. If you knew nothing about football—not a thing—and you just watched them, you’d say, ‘There’s something different about that team.’ A well-oiled machine. You’re just thinking, ‘This is the team we gotta compete with, man. We gotta get to their level.’

“That was the only time I had gotten that exposure. I knew this: That’s what it looks like when it’s done right.”

I wasn’t sure if McVay would recall a moment from his team’s low point this year. So I asked. You beat the Lions on the road, but it’s kind of shaky, and then you lose to Chicago there and lose to the Eagles on a Sunday night at home, and in those two losses, Goff throws no TDs and five picks. After that Philly game, at your press conference, you really looked shaken. Do you recall felling that way?

“I can’t remember the exact emotion,” McVay said, “That Chicago loss was a game unlike anything we’ve experienced in our two years. Then Philly … We’re down 30-13 and Nick Foles is driving to blow it open, and Aqib Talib makes a big-time [interception] to get us back in it. But we lose. I do remember thinking it’s easy to talk about your traits, your characteristics, your core values that you want to embody as a team. You gotta be what you say. If I’m really gonna be the leader that I expect to be for this team and be mentally tough like I talk to the players about, there’s a real chance to demonstrate that right now.

“When I deal with players, it’s not just the hokey ‘Oh you’re great, man, I love you, I believe in you.’ It’s, ‘Let’s look at why we didn’t have success.’ Jared is a pretty mentally tough guy anyway. He’s pretty unshaken. Last week I think was the greatest example of his mental toughness where we’re down 13-nothing, and that place was f—ing loud! When we were there earlier this year, it was not even close. Those fans had an extra buzz. I mean, it was unbelievable. I used to get this headache that was a killer after games. Last week was the first time as a coach I’ve had a headache like that after a game.”

McVay was off the highway now, driving onto the campus of Cal Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks. He was itching to walk through the door. Close to 5 a.m. now. I could tell … Still cordial, but feeling late.

“And what they did was genius during that game. Our players get interviewed in the week leading up. ‘Hey, is the noise gonna be a factor?’ So Robert Woods says, ‘You know, we don’t expect it to be. Their defense has to deal with it too.’ So in the stadium, they put that Robert Woods interview up there in between break. The fans go even crazier then, and I’m looking at Robert. Why the hell did you say that? Anyway, Jared just dealt with it. Figured a way and dealt with it. He’s about doing more than saying.”

Now at his parking space. Time, fleeting. We haven’t talked game-planning, or playing the Super Bowl in the backyard of his youth, or very much about his love of John Wooden and the Pyramid of Success. And he’s meh about why Belichick’s teams are masterful with two weeks to prepare this time of year.

But one thing sticks with me, one of the last things he said. A throwaway line. McVay has this ridiculous memory of plays he’s called and plays he’s seen, and he can rip off details in staccato bursts, like they’d just happened and he was watching them on replay. The subject: imaginative play-design. I mention how impressive I found it that New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels installed eight new plays on the day of the AFC title game last week, and the Patriots did a quick walk-through of them six-and-a-half hours before the game. New England used four or five in the game, all for positive yards. That’s when you know you’ve got a smart team, with veteran coaches who can complete each other’s sentences.

gettyimages-1081703764.jpg?w=1024&h=682 McVay. (Getty Images)

Then I bring up the winning touchdown pass by the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, the 11-yard Foles-to-Zach Ertz game-winning touchdown pass out of the weird Philly formation New England had never seen, the play the coaching staff invented the week of the game, a week after the regular game plan had been installed.

“The four-by-one,” McVay interrupted, suddenly remembering it. “Yeah.”

The Eagles used the odd formation 51 weeks ago—one receiver (Ertz) to the left, four to the right, and Foles picking the one over the four in traffic. McVay’s instant recall of the play that flummoxed the Patriots stood out because it gave me an idea of his mindset now. Which is: I bet he’s thinking of distinctive plays like this today. A reminder of how this messed with the Pats: Patricia, the defensive coordinator, was caught by NFL Films before the play saying, “We’re gonna have to double 86.” Ertz. They never did. The coverage got lost in translation. But McVay’s reflexive recall in the California darkness reinforced to me that, as with the Eagles and Doug Pederson last year, the latest of this new cadre of young (very young, in this case) and imaginative offensive thinkers will test Belichick.

Plus, McVay knows Belichick will test him. McVay has great admiration for Belichick, but he also knows business is business. Last April, McVay thought he had this deal in place with the Patriots: Rams trade their first-round pick to New England for Brandin Cooks and a fourth-round pick. But when McVay went to finalize the deal, the Rams ended up throwing in a sixth-round pick at Belichick’s request. So it turned out to be Cooks and a four from New England to the Rams for first- and sixth-round picks. (The Patriots, not surprisingly, turned that sixth-round pick into two seventh-rounders in 2018 and another seventh-rounder in 2019.) Still, a deal the Rams were happy to make. But a good lesson for McVay.

There’s no doubt in my mind that McVay and offensive coordinator Zac Taylor have used this week to mine for things the Patriots have never seen in formations and plays and maybe even personnel groupings, and so won’t have been able to prepare for them. The Eagles used that approach last year, and it worked.

If I’m McVay, I’m thinking Brady’s gonna Brady; in their last three playoff games, the Patriots have averaged 37 points and 399 Brady passing yards. The Rams are probably going to have to score in the thirties to win, or to have a chance to win. It won’t help this week that they’ll hear some version of Are you sure you belong here after that non-call in New Orleans? (This, by the way, is how McVay addressed it with me, and it’s what I think will be something close to his response: “We understand the Saints and their fans are upset. Clearly that was pass-interference. But it’s not the only thing that led to the outcome of the game. The way we are with our team is that we have the mindset of it’s always about the next play, and you can’t control what the officials do. We can’t control it, but we can try to control the next play, and that’s how we played.” In other words, there will be no apology, no regrets from the Rams. It’s not their place.)

The Rams have been good at ignoring the noise in two seasons with McVay, and when he walked into his office at 5 Saturday morning to prep for his last pre-Atlanta practice of the week, he didn’t seem too uptight. He seemed excited.

I don’t think for a second this game will be too big for our team.

Probably not for the youngest Super Bowl coach ever, either.

 
 
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