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Hunter2_1

So, the 2019 Chiefs...

How will they do this season?  

160 members have voted

  1. 1. The 2019 Chiefs...

    • They consolidate - either the first or second seed in the AFC, not dropping off
      43
    • They drop off slightly - win at least 2 fewer games than last season
      98
    • They drop off markedly - miss playoffs, and end up with a record around .500 or below
      19


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None of those options fit my opinion.

They drop more than 2 games from last year's 13 wins but still win 9 or 10 games and might still make the playoffs.

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I think they'll be great, but so will the Chargers.  I expect both of them to make the playoffs, but I don't know who has to settle for wild card status.

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They still got Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’ll be fine for the regular season but the post season will be another story like always.

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We'll dip slightly but not as much as some think, and certainly not for the reasons many seem to think. 10-6 or 11-5, and mostly because it's just hard to maintain what we did last year. Offense gets a little worse, defense gets a little better.

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11 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Never said the offense wasnt incredible, it absolutely was, but cmon man, you're bragging about 377 yards in 53 attempts, nearly 2 full ypa less than his season avg.  The Baltimore offense was horribad.  321 total yards of offense, and still damn near won the game.  And again, all that happened with Hill still out there.  

Dont forget if Eric Fisher doesnt recover the Mahomes fumble in OT, they very likely lose to Baltimore.

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12 hours ago, BayRaider said:

None of these options. Same wins or one less win but 5th seed to LA. 

Well, I'd say that's a consolidation but they couldn't control another team doing really well. Unless they lost both times to them - in which case it could be a slight drop-off if they're not in control of the Div. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, SkippyX said:

None of those options fit my opinion.

They drop more than 2 games from last year's 13 wins but still win 9 or 10 games and might still make the playoffs.

They won 12 (Reg) games last year. If they won 9 or 10, still making the playoffs, then that would be a slight drop off.

Edited by Hunter2_1

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19 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

All of this + we still need to see Mahommes when teams throw all sorts of different coverage looks at him.  Hill is a cheat code, he dictates coverages.  If the Chiefs dont have hill this year (I expect best case scenario they dont) now Mahommes is going to have different looks.  Fangio for 1 is a master of disguising coverages making everything look like a 2 deep shell.  So we need to see how Mahommes handles and adjusts on the fly to NFL DCs gameplanning specifically to confuse him.  Andy will have them in playoff contention bc that is just what he does, but I dont see them in that top tier in the AFC with the Pat's, Chargers, and Colts.

What were teams using against them, or not using against them? Can you go into a bit more detail.

I know what my team did to them - we played heavy man (which Patrick said they hadn't seen a lot of), played corners on Kelce and doubled Hill and used moderate pressure. Eventually though, he broke through.

In the first game against them, PM struggled in the first half and we were throwing some looks at him;

 

 

We also used Cover 0 blitzes

 

 

So, there's some pretty nifty looks there. But again - he broke through and ended up putting up some good numbers. So, what are defenses to do, apart from be grateful that Hill isn't there?

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Nzd07 said:

Honestly, I think that had a lot more to do with Tyreek Hill than Alex Smith. He was good his rookie year, but his sophomore season he was burning guys left and right. Go back and watch some of those games, if you have gamepass even better.

There were also games that year where Smith looked completely lost, like the Giants game.

That’s my point. If Mahomes job is so simple with Tyreek, why did Smith fail so often with him (Dallas, Giants, Bills, Titans games from 2017)?

Answer: Because Mahomes is the smarter, stronger, and more aggressive QB. That’s the difference between 26 touchdowns and 50 touchdowns. There’s probably only a handful of QB who could’ve led 2018 KC to the playoffs. I mean, how many QB can make the playoffs when their defense allows 26ppg?

Even Brees can’t overcome that much defensive incompetence. 

Edited by Nightime

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21 minutes ago, Nightime said:

That’s my point. If Mahomes job is so simple with Tyreek, why did Smith fail so often with him (Dallas, Giants, Bills, Titans games from 2017)?

Answer: Because Mahomes is the smarter, stronger, and more aggressive QB. That’s the difference between 26 touchdowns and 50 touchdowns. There’s probably only a handful of QB who could’ve led 2018 KC to the playoffs. I mean, how many QB can make the playoffs when their defense allows 26ppg?

Even Brees can’t overcome that much defensive incompetence. 

To be fair, the 2017 Chiefs defense ranked dead last in weighted DVOA. The reason teams didn’t score 26ppg against that defense was because Alex Smith is much less of a risk-taker than Mahomes. It’s a double-edged sword - Mahomes will put up more yards and TD’s than Smith, but will have more turnovers because of the risks it takes to throw for that many yards and TD’s. We’ve seen that KC can win in the regular season with both styles of QB play, but the ceiling in the playoffs is likely higher with the more aggressive style of play. 

 

On another note, Kollman shows a solid example of Mahomes overcoming disguised coverage at 2:00 in the video below. 

 

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I went with Option 2. I wonder if Mahomes can live up to how well he did last year or not. 

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3 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

To be fair, the 2017 Chiefs defense ranked dead last in weighted DVOA. The reason teams didn’t score 26ppg against that defense was because Alex Smith is much less of a risk-taker than Mahomes. It’s a double-edged sword - Mahomes will put up more yards and TD’s than Smith, but will have more turnovers because of the risks it takes to throw for that many yards and TD’s. We’ve seen that KC can win in the regular season with both styles of QB play, but the ceiling in the playoffs is likely higher with the more aggressive style of play. 

 

On another note, Kollman shows a solid example of Mahomes overcoming disguised coverage at 2:00 in the video below. 

 

I agree with most of this, but that 2018 unit was simply worse than 2017. 2018 unit set the NFL record for first downs allowed. 

I’m not trying to criticize Alex Smith, I am just in awe of what Mahomes accomplished

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9 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

What were teams using against them, or not using against them? Can you go into a bit more detail.

I know what my team did to them - we played heavy man (which Patrick said they hadn't seen a lot of), played corners on Kelce and doubled Hill and used moderate pressure. Eventually though, he broke through.

In the first game against them, PM struggled in the first half and we were throwing some looks at him;

 

 

We also used Cover 0 blitzes

 

 

So, there's some pretty nifty looks there. But again - he broke through and ended up putting up some good numbers. So, what are defenses to do, apart from be grateful that Hill isn't there?

Thank you, for this post. The Pats D brought it, against Mahomes. As you would expect. The Ravens did some really nifty things against him as well. I remember that being a big topic of conversation that week.

Personally, my stance on the whole argument that Mahomes will struggle now that teams have tape or they can gameplan for him or they can...do whatever people think defenses can do against second year starting QBs that they don't know how to against first year starting QBs. My stance is that if he was able to play effectively against a Bill Belichick coached defense, in the postseason, in a rematch, where the Pats had a standard amount of time to prepare, there's nothing that is going to get thrown against him that he can't handle. Your average NFL team is not going to have some new master gameplan that Belichick wouldn't have come up with. Maybe some team will have the right personnel to screw with him. Peyton struggled against certain defense's year to year. The Steelers used to really screw up Alex Smith big time. But nothing that like, league wide they're suddenly going to figure out how to collectively stop him.

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