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patriotsheatyan

How big is the gap between Mahomes and Watson/Jackson?

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Tier1: Mahomes

Tier2: Wilson, Jackson, Brees

Tier3: Watson, Rodgers, Wentz

Tier4: JimmyG, Ryan, Murray, Brady, Goff, Fitzpatrick

How I would have it currently. But the list is fluid. Things can change.

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On 1/14/2020 at 4:27 PM, patriotsheatyan said:

Wilson has been a starter for eight years and never come close to what Mahomes did last year. 

Wilson went to back-to-back Super Bowls, dude. 

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On 1/14/2020 at 12:27 AM, JustAnotherFan said:

This is one thing I'm tired of hearing. I get that BOB is not the best play-caller, but I also think he's been used as a scapegoat far more often than he deserves in order to try and prop up Watson. The same with his "terrible" OL.

I'll acknowledge the OL situation (in fact, I've posted up where Watson was his own worst enemy in games against Carolina and New Orleans). The playcalling though? I'm not budging from that spot.

Watson is a quick rhythm QB - get him into 3-5 step situations, quick read and quick decisions out of the shotgun. If you watch his better games, you'll see the Texans doing this in large doses; DeAndre Hopkins will win on a quick in route, Watson gets the ball out of his hands in a hurry, first down. You'll also see it when Watson is running out of the RPO play action - it's a quick roll to a side and an even quicker throw to the sideline. 

BoB's offense has elements of this, but he's also insistent on long developing plays with Hopkins getting 10-12 yards deep into his routes before creating separation. He's got one of the best satellite backs in Duke Johnson, and sends him on post corner routes that develop 15 yards past the LoS. Watson is taking 5-7 step drops and waiting for routes to develop too many times during a game.

While I can understand the need to be unpredictable, BoB is actually the opposite of this - he's VERY predictable when he starts calling his offense. I'll find the graphic, but there was a study done by Warren Sharp that illustrated BoB as the most predictable play caller in the NFL. I'll have to dig it up, but it really drew out how behind the times O'Brien is.

Watson has his flaws, sure. He's beaten up on them for the most part by local media - he holds onto the ball too long, he plays "dodgeball" in the pocket, he's careless with the ball throwing deep routes inside the hashes, such as deep in routes, posts and seams - far too much than anyone would like. This being said, it's on a coaching staff (O'Brien, OC Tim Kelly, QB coach Carl Smith) to scheme away from these instances.

Right, wrong or indifferent... they don't.

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On 1/15/2020 at 8:40 AM, diamondbull424 said:

Tier1: Mahomes

Tier2: Wilson, Jackson, Brees

Tier3: Watson, Rodgers, Wentz

Tier4: JimmyG, Ryan, Murray, Brady, Goff, Fitzpatrick

How I would have it currently. But the list is fluid. Things can change.

 

Image result for what gif?

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3 minutes ago, Nex_Gen said:

 

Image result for what gif?

While I love the Kobe gif... after seeing Fitzpatrick lead that abysmal offense with that terrible OL and limited playmaker options and turn it, along with Flores into a respectable finish on the season... I had to elevate him some. Probably should’ve made a tier 5 and put him on that level along with guys like Tannehill, Dak, Winston, Newton, and Cousins.

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I don't think any QB is on par with Mahomes from a Talent to Production standpoint. Mix that in with the most creative play caller in Andy Reid and you get the best offense in the league.

Tier 1A- Mahomes

Tier 1B - Wilson, Rodgers, Wentz, Watson, Ryan, Jackson 

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Good post ET. Thank you for at least adding some context.

Yeah, as I said, I understand BOB is not the greatest play-caller or even the best offensive mind but I also don't feel like he is as bad as people make him out to be either. 

I mean, I always read/hear people just saying "he's a bad play-caller" or making jokes with no context, and I hear it so often that I feel like it's become one of those things where a couple of people say something and everyone just goes along with it. Hell, you would think that BOB is the absolute worst coach in history with how often it gets brought up on this forum.

Whenever he does call a bad play it gets amplified tenfold and repeated over and over. Yet, I never hear anyone giving him props whenever it's deserved for a good play call. It seems to only ever be a good play because Watson, or another player, MADE it a good play and not the design or play-call itself--which are attributed to BOB too.

As a fan, I've found that two of the hardest things in football to judge objectively are play-callers and OL. That's usually because not only are they typically the hardest to judge in general, but because we're only seeing them from one perspective and not comparing them to the rest of the league.

Every fan will tell you that their OL is the worst in the league. Or that their play-caller is the worst in the league. This is obviously a bit of hyperbole but you get the point.

Anyhow, my point is, this whole BOB is a such a terrible play-caller thing has been blown way out of proportion, IMO. Does he deserve criticism, yes, absolutely? But not to the extent that he has. 

12 hours ago, ET80 said:

Watson is a quick rhythm QB - get him into 3-5 step situations, quick read and quick decisions out of the shotgun. If you watch his better games, you'll see the Texans doing this in large doses; DeAndre Hopkins will win on a quick in route, Watson gets the ball out of his hands in a hurry, first down. You'll also see it when Watson is running out of the RPO play action - it's a quick roll to a side and an even quicker throw to the sideline.

Wouldn't these instances classify as good designs and situational play-calls though? 

Quote

BoB's offense has elements of this, but he's also insistent on long developing plays with Hopkins getting 10-12 yards deep into his routes before creating separation. He's got one of the best satellite backs in Duke Johnson, and sends him on post corner routes that develop 15 yards past the LoS. Watson is taking 5-7 step drops and waiting for routes to develop too many times during a game.

These are some good points and I could see how this may seem counterintuitive to your above quote,  but I still wouldn't consider this "bad" play-calling, IMO, because BOB's offense has had success using this format as well. It seems to me like this would fall more in line with being more "inconsistent" than anything else. 

Are you sure you're looking at this with an open mind and not with a preconceived idea that BOB is such a terrible play-caller? I'm only asking because I admittedly do the very same thing with Nagy at times--I'm fed up with his play-calling. I'll say that play call was trash and then I go back and rewatch the game and say...okay I can understand it now.

Maybe BOB designing longer developing routes doesn't happen as often as you may think it does.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

Quote

Average Separation (SEP)
The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.

Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY)
The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.

Per NGS, Hopkins averaged 10.3 yards per targeted air yards amongst all WR's and TEs with at least 43 targets in 2019--middle of the pack. And 11.9 yards in 2018.

And over the last 2 years combined, HOU ranks 18th in the league on average targeted yards among all qualifying targets (10.28). Meaning, there are a lot more coaches who are designing much longer developing plays downfield than BOB has. It's also worth noting that HOU ranks 8th in average separation (2.99) over the same span.

Shouldn't he at least get some credit for these?

I73dEDm.png

 

 

Edited by JustAnotherFan

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On 1/14/2020 at 9:36 AM, tom cody said:

Mahomes is better than Watson and Jackson but the difference between him and Watson isn't all that big IMO. 

The difference between Mahomes and Watson isn't all that big? It's massive. Unless some kind of major injury happens you're talking about a guy in Mahomes who right now is on pace to be one of the top 5 greatest QBs ever. He's incredible. Watson is no slouch but the difference in the two is massive. I'm not old enough to remember it but this must've been what it was like to watch Marino in the 80's...

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Watson and Jackson are good QBs but they don’t come close to Mahomes and how much of a game wrecker he is. He’s on pace to have like 12-0 TD-INT playoff ratio.

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I feel like the gap between Watson and Mahomes is the exact height and weight difference between Andy Reid and Bill O'Brien

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Hard to tell really. Mahomes whole team on offense is stacked like no other QB right now. I like to see how QBs handle changes in talent level. 

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On 1/22/2020 at 7:21 PM, lavar703 said:

The difference between Mahomes and Watson isn't all that big? It's massive. Unless some kind of major injury happens you're talking about a guy in Mahomes who right now is on pace to be one of the top 5 greatest QBs ever. He's incredible. Watson is no slouch but the difference in the two is massive. I'm not old enough to remember it but this must've been what it was like to watch Marino in the 80's...

I like Watson and was slow to the Mahomes hype train. Still Mahomes is really impressing me now. I think that comeback in the game with the Texans is what got me to think this guy can be an all time great. 

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