SmittyBacall Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Teen Girl Squad said: Pretty much. Keep in mind that draft bets are very low totals/volume, so they aren't really bet by professionals (too volatile). This combo means that narratives and hype (and some info) can wildly swing the odds. Only real exception is the first overall since if you have good info, pros will make the bet to get a bit of 'free' money. Once you get past those locked in picks, there's too much variation to account for outside. I just have a hard time believing it to be true. Athletic profile is the difference-maker here. Gonzalez fits the prototypical mold of an elite corner and Witherspoon's profile is underwhelming and incomplete. Gonzalez is taller, longer, faster, younger (only 20!), and tested to prove it. Witherspoon is undersized, lacks length, ran average, and is almost a complete unknown athletically. I get that the tape ultimately matters most, but when splitting hairs these "check boxes" matter. I get the Detroit speculation. Dan Campbell loves knee-biters, they don't value their board based on "running in pajamas", Witherspoon's former team mate is already with the Lions (Kerby Joseph), etc. But if you look back over the last decade, the first CB taken always profiles similar to Gonzalez - because these are typically your Pro Bowl corners. Even if the Lions pass, I just can't see the majority of teams having Witherspoon as CB1. Having Witherspoon at -200 is too much. The lines should be closer to even IMO, if not leaning towards Gonzalez. How many 5'11, 180 lbs, 31-inch armed corners who run a 4.45 Pro Day 40 get drafted in the top 10?Am I crazy here or what? Edited April 19, 2023 by SmittyBacall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: I just have a hard time believing it to be true. Athletic profile is the difference-maker here. Gonzalez fits the prototypical mold of an elite corner and Witherspoon's profile is underwhelming and incomplete. Gonzalez is taller, longer, faster, younger (only 20!), and tested to prove it. Witherspoon is undersized, lacks length, ran average, and is almost a complete unknown athletically. I get that the tape ultimately matters most, but when splitting hairs these "check boxes" matter. I get the Detroit speculation. Dan Campbell loves knee-biters, they don't value their board based on "running in pajamas", Witherspoon's former team mate is already with the Lions (Kerby Joseph), etc. But if you look back over the last decade, the first CB taken always profiles similar to Gonzalez - because these are typically your Pro Bowl corners. Even if the Lions pass, I just can't see the majority of teams having Witherspoon as CB1. Having Witherspoon at -200 is too much. The lines should be closer to even IMO, if not leaning towards Gonzalez. How many 5'11, 180 lbs, 31-inch armed corners who run a 4.45 Pro Day 40 get drafted in the top 10?Am I crazy here or what? I do think tape matters most. Denzel Ward has similar arm length and size. He ran much faster. He went #4 and is really good. Jaire Alexander, similar measurements to Ward, went 18 in the same draft. Also really good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, General Tso said: I do think tape matters most. Denzel Ward has similar arm length and size. He ran much faster. He went #4 and is really good. Jaire Alexander, similar measurements to Ward, went 18 in the same draft. Also really good. Fair enough on the size front, but those two also tested like elite athletes. I guess it's the lack of testing that is the question mark for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Quentin Johnston was there yesterday. Looks like Pat is the new WR scout for the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowlesDawgDX Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Didn't Flacco do the same back with the Ravens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, BowlesDawgDX said: Didn't Flacco do the same back with the Ravens Not sure. I’m just surprised that it doesn’t happen more often. Could be that it isn’t reported too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: Quentin Johnston was there yesterday. Looks like Pat is the new WR scout for the team. I don't hate it, tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 2 hours ago, kingseanjohn said: Quentin Johnston was there yesterday. Looks like Pat is the new WR scout for the team. I can't see Flowers falling to 31. Doesn't rule out a trade up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 49ers doing a lot of work on 3rd round running backs again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetterCallSaul Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 20 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Can someone explain why Devon Witherspoon is the heavy betting favourite as the first CB taken? Is it solely the Detroit connection? Because he’s the best CB in the class. I was late to him, but his tape is fantastic & what he does to ballcarriers is night & day compared to Gonzales, who is merely average in that regard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 32 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said: Because he’s the best CB in the class. I was late to him, but his tape is fantastic & what he does to ballcarriers is night & day compared to Gonzales, who is merely average in that regard. Illinois in general had a pretty surprising number of relevant prospects 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Daniel Jeremiah linked the Jags to Forbes and Banks as the two corners he think we like at 24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 3 hours ago, BetterCallSaul said: Because he’s the best CB in the class. I was late to him, but his tape is fantastic & what he does to ballcarriers is night & day compared to Gonzales, who is merely average in that regard. Fans get caught up in the big hitting but Gonzo has an under 5% missed tackle percentage while Spoon has over 11%. I’ll take the more reliable tackler. Love Spoon though. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 2 hours ago, .Buzz said: Daniel Jeremiah linked the Jags to Forbes and Banks as the two corners he think we like at 24. Hope it's Banks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetterCallSaul Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Scoundrel said: Fans get caught up in the big hitting but Gonzo has an under 5% missed tackle percentage while Spoon has over 11%. I’ll take the more reliable tackler. Love Spoon though. I view it as urgency. Witherspoon brings violence with urgency. Gonzo kinda stumbles into his tackles. I think Witherspoon is a real hammer at cornerback to the point where he legitimately looks like a linebacker out there. I do think we’re splitting hairs, but they do NOT look similar in terms of tackling on tape. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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