JaguarCrazy2832 Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 3 hours ago, sammymvpknight said: That’s for the update. Why do people suck? Interesting thing is you dont know what is false. Maybe Strouds number is legit and one of the crazy high ones is false Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 6 hours ago, goldfishwars said: About what I have as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Forge said: is it real insight.... or vegas trying to get money spread around to other players?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 1 minute ago, squire12 said: is it real insight.... or vegas trying to get money spread around to other players?? He's also the favorite on MGM, so people are certainly feeling like this is legit. I feel like Vegas can't be that exposed on a #2 overall pick bet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, squire12 said: is it real insight.... or vegas trying to get money spread around to other players?? There is no insight here. People that know are not talking. It is a good a bet as any Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Forge said: He's also the favorite on MGM, so people are certainly feeling like this is legit. I feel like Vegas can't be that exposed on a #2 overall pick bet possible. but the more they shift the odds to different players, seems like the betting public will follow those odds and move money following the leader. Vegas doesn't really care who is picked in that spot, they just want to make some cash (and absolutely not take a big loss if the majority of the money is on 1 player) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, jebrick said: There is no insight here. People that know are not talking. It is a good a bet as any so what works in Vegas favor? 50% of the money on 1 player and the remaining 50% spread around to 2-3 others 5-6 players having around 15-25% each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, squire12 said: so what works in Vegas favor? 50% of the money on 1 player and the remaining 50% spread around to 2-3 others 5-6 players having around 15-25% each As you said, get people to put money on other players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 How often are the betting favorites actually right for draft picks anyways? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypher Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, General Tso said: How often are the betting favorites actually right for draft picks anyways? At the top of the draft, Vegas is right more than they're not for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 22, 2023 Author Share Posted April 22, 2023 51 minutes ago, General Tso said: How often are the betting favorites actually right for draft picks anyways? Here’s a summary of last year’s odds on draft day. Malik Willis was odds-on to be the first QB selected (-200). https://www.4for4.com/2022/preseason/2022-nfl-draft-betting-odds-bets-tracker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 22, 2023 Author Share Posted April 22, 2023 1 minute ago, goldfishwars said: Here’s a summary of last year’s odds on draft day. Malik Willis was odds-on to be the first QB selected (-200). https://www.4for4.com/2022/preseason/2022-nfl-draft-betting-odds-bets-tracker In fact, most of the positional faves there weren’t the first selected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Cypher said: At the top of the draft, Vegas is right more than they're not for sure. How many players have been the betting odds to be the pick at number 2 so far? Feels like it has been ( in some order).... Young, Stroud, Anderson, Carter ( maybe), Levis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, squire12 said: How many players have been the betting odds to be the pick at number 2 so far? Feels like it has been ( in some order).... Young, Stroud, Anderson, Carter ( maybe), Levis We are probably at a point where Vegas is only reacting to market fluctuations as you mentioned earlier. Levis being a heavy favorite now isn't about Vegas thinking he's going to be the second pick, but a reaction to an influx of money on Levis to be that pick. Now, is that money on Levis just random, or the byproduct of talk indicating the winds are blowing that way, I dunno. I still think this is a little early to be setting in, but we will see. If this were Tuesday, I'd definitely feel a certain way 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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