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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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4 hours ago, Xenos said:

What are the rules about pasting entire articles in this forum? Just read something interesting about the bubble experience with the NBA.

If it's behind a paywall, it's not allowed. If it's something you can link to with all of the text, it's fine.

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Why relying solely on CFR is not a good idea:

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/24/894818106/trumps-favorite-coronavirus-metric-the-case-fatality-is-unreliable?

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The case fatality rate is the result of a simple mathematical calculation: the number of diagnosed cases of coronavirus divided by the number of deaths. But it's also a moving target. Case numbers are rising fast, deaths are a lagging indicator, running several weeks behind.


 

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Inglesby says by a more direct measure, the sheer number of deaths, even adjusted for population size, the U.S. is not doing well compared to other countries around the world.


 

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Focusing on the fatality rate also glosses over other serious problems with coronavirus, says Dr. David Relman, who specializes in immunology and infectious diseases at Stanford. He says about 20% of people get really sick with potential long term health consequences, coronavirus is stressing the medical system and as long as it is uncontained, the virus is holding the economy back too. So, as he sees it, talking about the case fatality rate is counterproductive.

 

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https://www.yourgenome.org/sites/default/files/illustrations/infographic/drug_design_yourgenome.png

This graphic below shows the pathway from Discovery to Regulatory Approval for a new drug (not vaccines) and gives you some idea of the winnowing process that takes place in development. Start with 10k compounds and hope that (1) of them makes it through the gauntlet of safety and efficacy testing. Vaccines have a slightly different pathway and success rate, but its no less daunting

This is a reflection of our still-limited knowledge of human biology and medicine.
All of this "failure" costs time and money, so the idea is to kill a drug program as quickly as possible, but few of the clinical results are black & white in terms of does this work or not - most of the time the answers are maybe, sort of, in this specific population of humans, in this stage of disease, maybe we need a higher/lower dose etc. So the go/no go decisions are fraught with uncertainty

The entire process can take 8-12 years and can cost upwards of $1 billion in direct costs. Once you get to the Approval stage, you have between 5-7 years of patent protection left to sell your compound before it goes generic. A moderately successful new drug will generate about $365 million in sales, so that means every day you save in development time= $ 1million in revenue saved.
Its high stakes from start to finish and requires an immense amount of capital and a fair amount of luck to make it happen

 

drug_design_yourgenome.png

Edited by Shanedorf
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18 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

We're trendsetters??.................................. No we're not. We're rednecks.

When it comes to Corona, we've been trendsetters. DeWine was the posterboy of this back in March...on the BBC.

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

@LETSGOBROWNIES

Clark County is doing online school the first quarter! Just announced it. Domino effect says this happens almost everywhere...even without DeWine.

Good for them for having the stones to do this.

I doubt it happens statewide without DeWine, but it definitely makes it easier for districts who’s like to.

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28 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

And while I still don’t like DeWine’s politics, he continues to do the right thing.

Slow on the masks, but that’s about his only misstep in a chaotic 4 months.

I agree although I think we opened a month too early as well. If you look at rt.live, it seems we were doing so damn well but everyone got the notion that if we were opening up, we were fine... or something. I dunno. I don't think like that lol.

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