Draft Busts

[thebestever6]

6 hours ago, VanS said:

Don't get me wrong.  Michael Thomas has value and I like him a lot.  I just don't think he's in class with the likes of Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, and Tyreek Hill.  I put Michael Thomas in the second tier of WRs alongside Adam Theilen, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams.  To me there is a separation between guys who are mostly possesion receivers versus guys who stretch the field vertically.  I will always value the elite explosive receiver over the elite possesion receiver.

Odell Beckham is the most overrated wr I've ever seen what has he really done since that ankle injury? Sorry you're wrong I'll take the 1700 yards 9 TDS and 85% catch to targets

[SmittyBacall]

12 hours ago, DerbyRam said:

All that being said, you can't ignore the fact that he's just finished his fifth year at college. Darnold is younger and will be taking his third season in the NFL, whilst Burrow has his first.

That’s a completely fair take. Breakout age is something to monitor when evaluating. 

12 hours ago, DerbyRam said:

He wasn't seen at all in his first year, beaten out for the starting job comprehensively by a guy in JT Barrett

Is this surprising for a QB who only received two offers from major college programs (Nebraska and Ohio State)? He wasn’t highly touted and expected to start as a freshman over an entrenched starter. 

12 hours ago, DerbyRam said:

whilst Dwyane Haskins took over as backup and eventual starter - also a younger player. 

During Barrett’s last season, Burrow and Haskins were competing for the backup position (and likely eventual starter once Barrett left). Joe broke his hand during practice, essentially handing the backup job to Haskins. Haskins then replaced an injured Barrett to finish the year and played extremely well (especially going on to beat Michigan mid game). He had an obvious and deserved leg up on Burrow to replace Barrett heading into the offseason, and went on to win the job, so Burrow transferred. 

12 hours ago, DerbyRam said:

He was average to below average 2018 in his first year at LSU, throwing at 57% accuracy with a 16-5 ratio despite having an extremely talented receivers.

There are a few reasons to explain this, according to Burrow. One, he was out of football for years. He wasn’t a starter since his senior year of high school in 2014. Second, he came to the program late and was unable to take advantage of having a full offseason program; he was late to develop chemistry with his receivers, and was late adjusting to and learning the playbook. There was also a drastic difference in offensive philosophies from 2018 to 2019 when they hired Joe Brady. LSU’s offense in 2018 was archaic compared to their 2019 spread offense, which actually played to Burrow’s strength’s (most notably, his mental processing). It would take me too long to detail the differences, but here’s a link below if you’d like to read more:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bannersociety.com/platform/amp/2019/12/6/20902790/joe-burrow-lsu-2019-season

12 hours ago, DerbyRam said:

I would just worry that he thrived in an environment, one which he won't be in anymore, with the pressure of being the first pick in the draft, so what am I getting?

Pressure? You think the QB who played at his best during LSU’s playoff run into the National Championship - the most pressure-packed game in college football - is going to succumb to pressure? His poise and confidence is part of what makes him so appealing. I’m really not worried about it, I don’t think you should be either. 

Look, having one season of major production is a legitimate cause for concern. But there are explanations for it, and we’ve seen players succeed with one season of production before (most recently, Kyler Murray). As an evaluator you’d feel safer seeing him do it for 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean his career trajectory hinges on it. It’s a minor flag that needs to be investigated, and I don’t think it moves the needle a ton for him as a prospect. 

[jrry32]

7 hours ago, VanS said:

First of all, I'm not a combine guy.  I measure traits primarily on film.  So I am not being inconsistent by praising Rice and AB while not praising Michael Thomas despite similar measurables.  On film Rice and AB look like elite athletes despite not being elite when tested.  Michael Thomas plays like the mediocre athlete he tested as which is why I'm not high on him.  Some guys play more athletically than they test while others play less athletically than they test.  Nonetheless, I will always tout the player who plays like an elite athlete regardless of how he tested.

With regard to your first point, I simply value explosive plays and players over dink and dunk players.  Sure on the stat sheet it looks the same if on a drive a WR catches 5 passes for 10 yards each time while another WR catches one pass but takes it for 50 yards.  I value explosive plays and players over guys who methodically move the ball down the field.  After turnover margin, explosive plays are typically the best indicator for who wins the game.  That's why I will always value the more explosive player.  

Your last point on Peyton Manning is a non-sequitor because running the ball as a QB is less efficient than throwing it.  As long as a QB is prolific passing the ball its not a negative that he can't run.  The only time that becomes a negative is if he's being compared to a QB who is similarly effective throwing the ball but has the added element of being a superior runner (i.e. Aaron Rodgers vs Peyton Manning).  As a WR being able to stretch the field vertically will always be more valued than a guy who just runs underneath routes.  Its why NFL teams spend more money and higher draft capital on outside receivers than slot guys.

Except it's not. Guys who are limited to only stretching the field are significantly less valuable than guys who don't. It's also worth noting that explosive plays don't just come from deep balls. For example, Michael Thomas tied Julio Jones last year in 40+ yard receptions. 

[Duluther]

I can't think of any OT that has looked more lost on the college field than Austin Jackson. But he is only 20 and has a great frame to grow into. Is that worth taking him? Why does it seem like he fits more as a mid round pick?

 

I really want to like YGM so the Vikings can fill their end need with Griffen presumably gone. Especially after rewatching the Favre back in Lambeau game where our DLine sacked Rodgers 8+ times. But YGM also looks like a mid-round pick. Lack of burst for someone with his measurables, and I haven't seen any power moves of note. 

 

Am I missing something here?

[VanS]

4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Odell Beckham is the most overrated wr I've ever seen what has he really done since that ankle injury? Sorry you're wrong I'll take the 1700 yards 9 TDS and 85% catch to targets

Odell has played with bad QBs and bad coaching his entire career.  Remember how people thought Randy Moss was finished when he was at Oakland.  Then he goes to New England and breaks Jerry Rice's record for receiving TDs in a season.  WR is a dependant position.  Even the most talented receicers need a QB to get them the ball and coaches to draw up the right plays.  Physically OBJ is as talented as any receiver in the NFL.  Pair him with a decent QB and coach and he puts up video game numbers.

[VanS]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Except it's not. Guys who are limited to only stretching the field are significantly less valuable than guys who don't. It's also worth noting that explosive plays don't just come from deep balls. For example, Michael Thomas tied Julio Jones last year in 40+ yard receptions. 

Are you really gonna try and argue that NFL teams value the Julian Edelman/Wes Welker type of WR over the Julio Jones/Calvin Johnson type?  Stop it.  I don't care what you value.  I'm talking about NFL teams.  And they clearly value the explosive outside receiver who stretches the field vertically over the possesion receiver.  Draft position and pay proves that.

[jrry32]

50 minutes ago, VanS said:

Are you really gonna try and argue that NFL teams value the Julian Edelman/Wes Welker type of WR over the Julio Jones/Calvin Johnson type?  Stop it.  I don't care what you value.  I'm talking about NFL teams.  And they clearly value the explosive outside receiver who stretches the field vertically over the possesion receiver.  Draft position and pay proves that.

Lol. Calvin and Julio weren't limited to just being a vertical threat. Try addressing the points I make, not points you made up. And don't go spewing bullcrap about the NFL "valuing" your approach. You're disagreeing with the NFL on whether the top 3 WRs are worthy of a first round pick. I'm not out on the ledge. You are. You shot your argument in the foot again.

[BZski]

I am going to say Isaiah Simmons with a caveat being where he is selected. It takes a good coach to use someone like Simmons and move him all over the place. I like Simmons but it is a little scary taking a guy without a defined position in the top 10. 

[Jeezla]

30 minutes ago, BZski said:

I am going to say Isaiah Simmons with a caveat being where he is selected. It takes a good coach to use someone like Simmons and move him all over the place. I like Simmons but it is a little scary taking a guy without a defined position in the top 10. 

I don't think it takes a good coach to use Simmons. Either put him at S or put him at LB. Done.

[THE DUKE]

16 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

I don't think it takes a good coach to use Simmons. Either put him at S or put him at LB. Done.

Yes, either way, he'll be a bad man.  The most over used term this draft season is "chess piece".  You don't have to move someone all over purely because they are capable of it.  If you want to tweak something in your scheme to capitalize that versatility, awesome, but at the end of the day, he'll be playing a position within a larger defense.  He'll be a LB, and a damn good one.  A LB that can cover elite pass catching backs and even slot WR while still supporting the run defense.  The guy is going to be a stud regardless, because he is excellent at football.

[Jeezla]

1 minute ago, THE DUKE said:

Yes, either way, he'll be a bad man.  The most over used term this draft season is "chess piece".  You don't have to move someone all over purely because they are capable of it.  If you want to tweak something in your scheme to capitalize that versatility, awesome, but at the end of the day, he'll be playing a position within a larger defense.  He'll be a LB, and a damn good one.  A LB that can cover elite pass catching backs and even slot WR while still supporting the run defense.  The guy is going to be a stud regardless, because he is excellent at football.

If I am going to have Simmons move all over, I'm not having him do it as rookie either way. Learn his main position, be it WLB or ILB or S, then when he's good at that and knows the playbook 100%, I might get creative with him.

[Ragnarok]

27 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

If I am going to have Simmons move all over, I'm not having him do it as rookie either way. Learn his main position, be it WLB or ILB or S, then when he's good at that and knows the playbook 100%, I might get creative with him.

Exactly.  We just saw this with Minkah.  Miami tried to move him all over and he was okay.  Pitt stuck him at one spot and he was fantastic.

[BleedTheClock]

I don’t like:

 

Josh Jones OT 

Lavishka Shenault WR

Austin Jackson OT

Terrell Lewis DE

Lucas Niang OT

Jaylon Johnson CB

Trevon Diggs CB

Jeff Gladney CB

Jonah Jackson OG

John Simpson OG

Cam Dantzler CB

Hunter Bryant TE

Jordan Love QB

 

Will be ok, but won’t match their draft value:

Jedrick Wills OT

Cole Kmet TE

Jonathan Taylor RB

Brandon Aiyuk WR

Tee Higgins WR

Bradley Anae DE

Javon Kinlaw DT (needs to play next to good players)

[Gmen]

2 hours ago, VanS said:

Odell has played with bad QBs and bad coaching his entire career.  Remember how people thought Randy Moss was finished when he was at Oakland.  Then he goes to New England and breaks Jerry Rice's record for receiving TDs in a season.  WR is a dependant position.  Even the most talented receicers need a QB to get them the ball and coaches to draw up the right plays.  Physically OBJ is as talented as any receiver in the NFL.  Pair him with a decent QB and coach and he puts up video game numbers.

He was when he came into the league.  He's lost a step due to all the leg injuries.  It was noticeable in his last year as a Giants.

[sammymvpknight]

On 4/15/2020 at 2:20 PM, VanS said:

Thomas doesn't do more for the team.  Its the team that schemes him more opportunities.  Put a superior athlete like Julio in his place and Julio does more.

With regard to the draft, my philosophy is simple.  Why take a player in the 1st round if a similar talent can be found later in the draft?  Guys like Julio are rare that is why they warrant high 1st round status.  Guys like Michael Thomas are common and can be found every year in the middle rounds.  I would rather use my 1st round pick on rare traits than common ones.

Julio is allergic to paydirt. Once he scored three TDs in a game, and they have to give him an Epi-pen on the sidelines to revive him. 

HOF WRs aren't common. Michael Thomas is well on his way to being a HOF WR.