1.26 - Jordan Love [QB; Utah State] - QB1

[Leader]

ESPN -

Pre-Draft Analysis

Love has good size, a strong arm, above-average mobility and big hands. His touchdown-to-interception went from 32-to-6 in 2018 to 20-to-17 in 2019, and his overall decision-making needs to be more consistent. He throws off platform as well as anyone in this class, he can adjust his release point to avoid pressure and he shows excellent touch. -- Steve Muench

Post-Draft Analysis

This is a controversial pick. On one hand, Love will turn into an absolute steal if he reaches his considerable upside. Aaron Rodgers is 36, and last year he had his lowest passer rating since 2015. On the other hand, Rodgers was playing for a new coach, he needs more weapons to complement Davante Adams and his window to win a Super Bowl is closing. So there's an argument for building for this year.

[Packerraymond]

I think soaking up the mental side of the game is going to be so good for Jordan. The arm is there. Put on the tape, he's got it. From platform, off-platform, in the pocket, on the run, with touch, threading the needle. It's just easy gas, the motion is sweet, it's all there.

It's clear the flaws from 2019 came from losing seniors and a coaching staff, him looking around and deciding he needed to wear Superman's cape in order for USU to do anything. To an extent he was probably right, but it made him a worse decision maker. 

I get we're all going to diss Rodgers after I post this and say we don't want our young QB passing up open WR's, not taking checkdowns and taking sacks, yada yada, blah blah, there I said it already so spare me. I have no doubt Rodgers is an elite mind in that film room, Jordan is lacking there. 2-3 years in that room learning how to be a pro, run a locker room, analyze a defense to go along with 2-3 years of seasoning on the technique could yield something special. 

[pacman5252]

4 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

Don't agree at all.   This pick says that the Green Bay Packers don't care about winning Super Bowls.   It says we really don't ever want to be terrible.

BTW Rodgers is 36, and will be for most of next season.   He has repetitively said that he plans to play into his 40's. 

My problem isn't with Rodgers or Love.  If you really don't think Rodgers is good enough anymore,  then trade him.   Don't extend his contract before it is up, only to make it difficult to move.

It shows that they aren't willing to take the bold moves required to win big.    Recent trends show that a formula for winning is getting a good QB on a rookie contract that gives you more money to surround them with talent.   With this move we threw away that opportunity, while also throwing away the opportunity to build on last years team in the best way possible with a couple good young players to take another shot at it.

Rodgers, yes will be 37, but is 36. That is still old

We extended AR 2 years ago. A lot has changed since then. Complaining about extending him today is full of hindsight bias. I was for it at the time, but did acknowledge the risk that AR could decline in his late 30s.

The draft isn't all about the present. A late first isn't instantly going to move the needle to win a title. If history is a good indicator, the majority of the wrs selected yesterday are going to have under 800 yards, any DT we would have taken would have been a rotation guy. Outside of ILB/RB, most positions take time to bake

[TheOnlyThing]

54 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

It is 2 years too early for this move if the team has the goal of winning SB.    

Reading the pre-draft Jordan Love thread, your take above seemed to encapsulate the majority view.

Remember way, way back about 5-7 years ago when the company-line was there was no need to go all in with Rodgers in his prime ... the team would do that as he aged?

There is simply no way to spin what has been done personnel-wise so far this offseason as an attempt to maximize the opportunity to win a SB before the Rodgers-era window completely closes.

Instead, by trading up to select Jordan Love in round 1, the organization has tacitly conceded it is likely to move on from Rodgers after the 2021 season (2 years after signing him to a massive extension and knowing it must absorb a corresponding $17M dead cap hit) by hedging its bets that it will have a successor ready to plug in at QB and keep the team "competitive" if Rodgers is gone in 2022.

There is no disputing the Packers have been a "competitive" team with Favre & Rodgers behind center for the the past 27 years. 

Just like there is no disputing the Packers have won 2 Super Bowls with Favre & Rodgers at QB for the past 27 years.

 

 

 

 

[hitnhope]

21 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Idk why people say we’re throwing in the towel because of this pick either.

Would it really blow people away if a guys like Pittman Jr,  Mims, Hamler ( please get him) , Shenault,  Higgans, Claypool, Edwards have better rookie years/careers than guys like Reagor and Aiyuk ?? Tbh I’m feeling pretty much the same if we get a second round WR than most of the first round WRs. 
 

Hardky throwing in the towel

It is throwing in the towel to winning a SB.

We had the opportunity for 2 of these guys you think will turn out, plus another depth player from the 4th round.    With this plan we get lose 2 possibilities toward improvement.   We were 1 game away from the SB, and instead of doing what we could to get 1 game better,  we went the route of taking a flyer on the future.

[deathstar]

7 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

I don't understand your point.   The 49ers and Saints are teams we need to be better than to get to a SB going forward.   Them getting better while the only thing we do is add a guy who will dived the team up into camps doesn't help us get better than the other NFC teams.

I really don't care a whole lot about the last 15 years any more.  they are done.  What gets us back to winning a Sb?    I don't think this move does that at all.

I mean you’re on here complaining that we’ve only drafted for the future for the last 15 years while envying what the niners and saints did last night. The Saints drafted an IOL for a 42 year old QB who is retiring after this year. That tells me they will end up being one of those teams that hopes they get lucky with a high draft pick on a QB within five years. The niners are over here drafting worse versions of players they already had on the roster last season. 

[AlexGreen#20]

33 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

His first year as a starter is then still a year that will not be great.      So at best we throw away 3 years where a rookie contract gives a team a talent advantage.

This is a move to keep the team decent, but not a move to win Super Bowls.   If we want to win a SB you either trade Rodgers now, or wait 2 more years to pick the successor.  

Doing as you suggest means hoping to get lucky rather than having a real plan for winning big.

If this was part of the plan, then the plan to extend Rodgers was a bad one.

Rodgers ins't a great QB right now. Are we throwing away every year with him as the QB? At least Love will be not-great and cheap. 

This is a move to keep the team competitive. We don't go all in. We don't rebuild.That's how we do this. That's how we've done it for 2 decades.

The plan to extend Rodgers was fine. You got him on a fair market deal. You kept your SB win chances around 9% or something in the market.

Would you rather have a 9% chance for 5 years or a 20% chance for 2 years and a 1% chance for years?

[Leader]

I dont mind to (in theory at least.....) to have the future franchise QB on board already.

There's some "presumption" with that comment - yeah, I got it - but what the hell. Why not?
So - having ARs heir apparent on board now......I can go with that. 

Guess for the stars to line up right you have to think that talent would come from the first round no?
Some rationalization going on here......but thats what fans do no?

[hitnhope]

8 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

Rodgers, yes will be 37, but is 36. That is still old

We extended AR 2 years ago. A lot has changed since then. Complaining about extending him today is full of hindsight bias. I was for it at the time, but did acknowledge the risk that AR could decline in his late 30s.

The draft isn't all about the present. A late first isn't instantly going to move the needle to win a title. If history is a good indicator, the majority of the wrs selected yesterday are going to have under 800 yards, any DT we would have taken would have been a rotation guy. Outside of ILB/RB, most positions take time to bake

And history also would suggest that the QB we just took more than likely doesn't plan out. You can't have it both ways and assume the other guys available will fail, while the QB doesn't.   The odds of the late round QB failing are higher than other positions, they are not better.

When you gave him the extension you accepted the risk and said you were going to maximize his window.   If you didn't plan on doing that then the extension was not a good idea at all.

[IBleedGreen&Gold]

9 hours ago, persiandud said:

Jordan Love isn't even good. i'm irate 

I just watched a video that had him rated the #3 QB in the draft and rated ahead of Herbert. They had him going at #6. While it doesn't help us now, sometimes you need to look to the future. I think we need to recognize that AR12's performance has fallen off somewhat. Can he recover? Will he continue to decline? Who knows but you now have an insurance policy that they can work with and seems to have the skills you look for.

[Ragnarok]

What a terrible, awful, miserable choice.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, hitnhope said:

And history also would suggest that the QB we just took more than likely doesn't plan out. You can't have it both ways and assume the other guys available will fail, while the QB doesn't.   The odds of the late round QB failing are higher than other positions, they are not better.

When you gave him the extension you accepted the risk and said you were going to maximize his window.   If you didn't plan on doing that then the extension was not a good idea at all.

What odds? There's been like 2 QBs drafted in the late first round in the last 20 years?

[{Family Ghost}]

5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I think soaking up the mental side of the game is going to be so good for Jordan. The arm is there. Put on the tape, he's got it. From platform, off-platform, in the pocket, on the run, with touch, threading the needle. It's just easy gas, the motion is sweet, it's all there.

It's clear the flaws from 2019 came from losing seniors and a coaching staff, him looking around and deciding he needed to wear Superman's cape in order for USU to do anything. To an extent he was probably right, but it made him a worse decision maker. 

I get we're all going to diss Rodgers after I post this and say we don't want our young QB passing up open WR's, not taking checkdowns and taking sacks, yada yada, blah blah, there I said it already so spare me. I have no doubt Rodgers is an elite mind in that film room, Jordan is lacking there. 2-3 years in that room learning how to be a pro, run a locker room, analyze a defense to go along with 2-3 years of seasoning on the technique could yield something special. 

It's a move to keep the Packers relevant for another decade and a half.  I totally get, and I am on board with it.  I do hope Gute shows a little more urgency tonight and lands some more immediate help.

[TheOnlyThing]

3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We don't go all in. We don't rebuild.That's how we do this. That's how we've done it for 2 decades.

Yep.

When a segment of the fan base was clamoring to go "all in" while Rodgers was in his prime, the Pack held firm to this philosophy.

With Rodgers in decline in 2020, Gute is loading up on 2021 compensatory picks, signing bargain-basement FAs coming off injury, and drafting his QB of the future.

The always avoiding "all in" philosophy undoubtedly has helped the Packers avoid multiple seasons of 5 or fewer wins ... just like it most certainly has contributed to the Pack's going to a single Super Bowl during the first 2 decades of this century.

 

[hitnhope]

3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Rodgers ins't a great QB right now. Are we throwing away every year with him as the QB? At least Love will be not-great and cheap. 

This is a move to keep the team competitive. We don't go all in. We don't rebuild.That's how we do this. That's how we've done it for 2 decades.

The plan to extend Rodgers was fine. You got him on a fair market deal. You kept your SB win chances around 9% or something in the market.

Would you rather have a 9% chance for 5 years or a 20% chance for 2 years and a 1% chance for years?

You stated to me on another thread that Rodgers has been bad for the last 5 years.    If you really believed that, you cannot support the decision to extend before the contract was up.   You could have held him to his old contract, and then used the franchise tags for 2 more years.    

We would have had the same chances to win for these years without the dead cap hit.   You can't play both sides logically.