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NFL proposes $40 million dollar cap reduction in 2020.


MikeT14

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This feels like posturing by the owners.  2020 revenue will likely drop with significantly less fans....if any...attending games....if there are any.  

If there is some altered version of a NFL 2020 season that has limit fans in attendance at games, the revenue will drop by 20-30% (I recall reading stadium revenue is around 40%), so conservative to say 20-30%.

Asking for the reduction for the 2020 season sets the stage for a 2021 drop in cap and can lead to the "borrowing" cap space (based on increase in revenue from pending new TV deals) from the 2022 and beyond years.  

There could be a few teams and some players that get a short stick in the upcoming FA class.  Might make for a lot of 1 year deals as players wait for an increase in cap space.

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13 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

there are zero teams with $ 40M in 2020 cap space right now

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

Lots of veterans are going to get cut if this goes through.  

I remember reading a few months ago that there is a Force Majeure clause in the current agreement that would prevent this from happening, but it's a good faith deal if I recall correctly.  

I can see the cap staying flat, but I can't believe the players will take $40 million in losses across the board.  

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8 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Lots of veterans are going to get cut if this goes through.  

I remember reading a few months ago that there is a Force Majeure clause in the current agreement that would prevent this from happening, but it's a good faith deal if I recall correctly.  

I can see the cap staying flat, but I can't believe the players will take $40 million in losses across the board.  

They needed to show the 2021 page which has 17 teams with at least $40M in cap space.  The issue there is that they do not have 53 players so some more cuts would have to happen to sign up to 53 ( in many cases)

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7 hours ago, jebrick said:

They needed to show the 2021 page which has 17 teams with at least $40M in cap space.  The issue there is that they do not have 53 players so some more cuts would have to happen to sign up to 53 ( in many cases)

Also the league minimum salary went up with the new CBA.  That probably eats up 1-2M total for the last chunk of players on the roster 

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On 7/17/2020 at 10:47 AM, N4L said:

I have a very easy solution for the NFL to this whole problem. Stick with me here:

College football isnt going to happen this year. There are too many challenges associated with larger rosters, liability for universities, and a lack of a clear, unified governing body. 

That means saturdays sporting schedule is wide open. The NFL could EASILY move games to Saturdays in the 10am pst, 1pm, and 5:30 time slots, then have the same thing on Sunday. 6 "primetime" games per weekend, plus MNF, when people are stuck at home during the winter. That should EASILY make up the lost revenue to the point we dont need to have any salary cuts this year and ****, the cap might even still go up next year. 

Its a fantastic idea, with a few caveats -  those games were already "sold" to the networks to air on whatever time/date they were scheduled. Moving them to Saturday would most likely give them a wider audience, but the net gain for the NFL is only the difference from the originally scheduled game ratings to the new Saturday game ratings. Its not nothing, but its not a 100% gain either. It would help cover the shortfall.

And it means more football for everybody...which is awesome. However, that messes with DirecTV Sunday ticket contract as the previously out-of-market games would now be carried by the networks on Saturdays instead of being funneled into DirecTV on Sundays. ( owned by AT&T)

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19 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Its a fantastic idea, with a few caveats -  those games were already "sold" to the networks to air on whatever time/date they were scheduled. Moving them to Saturday would most likely give them a wider audience, but the net gain for the NFL is only the difference from the originally scheduled game ratings to the new Saturday game ratings. Its not nothing, but its not a 100% gain either. It would help cover the shortfall.

And it means more football for everybody...which is awesome. However, that messes with DirecTV Sunday ticket contract as the previously out-of-market games would now be carried by the networks on Saturdays instead of being funneled into DirecTV on Sundays. ( owned by AT&T)

Is this a joke? Nothing about it makes even a tinny bit of sense.

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15 minutes ago, Vorsutus said:

Is this a joke? Nothing about it makes even a tinny bit of sense.

except ya know, the part about more football for the fans, and more money for the league. Except for those two things, youre right, it doesnt make sense *eyeroll*

37 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Its a fantastic idea, with a few caveats -  those games were already "sold" to the networks to air on whatever time/date they were scheduled. Moving them to Saturday would most likely give them a wider audience, but the net gain for the NFL is only the difference from the originally scheduled game ratings to the new Saturday game ratings. Its not nothing, but its not a 100% gain either. It would help cover the shortfall.

And it means more football for everybody...which is awesome. However, that messes with DirecTV Sunday ticket contract as the previously out-of-market games would now be carried by the networks on Saturdays instead of being funneled into DirecTV on Sundays. ( owned by AT&T)

Id be interested to hear in the marketing revenue from those saturday games the league does late in the year prior to the bowl season starting VS the regular sunday slate. It obviously is beneficial to the league or they wouldnt do it

I feel as though the owners are trying to tell the players "the world has changed and you need to participate in the potential revenue loss". The owners should have no problem telling DirecTV the same thing. 

These TV deals can be renegotiated. the owners are trying to renegotiate the goddamn salary cap afterall, they should have no issues renegotiating the TV deals 

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7 minutes ago, N4L said:

These TV deals can be renegotiated.

The networks been more flexible in recent years, but they use to fight over who got which games in which slots ( early vs late, NFC vs AFC)
But they all have contracts in place and its a zero sum game - if they take a game from one and give it to another- somebody will complain

On a full non-bye slate, they have 16 games to allocate. 3 games go to Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night.
That leaves them with 13 games to split across the Sunday slate and each network gets to protect one or two from being flexed or switched

A typical Sunday would have 9 games in the early slot and 4 in the late slots. So if you take away from Sunday Early and make it a Saturday game, they might gain more eyeballs in the COVID world. But the net gain is what they would have earned Early Sunday vs the new Saturday slot. It is an incremental gain, but its not the full value of the Saturday broadcast. Does that make sense ?

They are gaining some higher ratings on Saturday, but they also lost some from Sunday because they moved that game out. In the past, the NFL has stayed away from early Sat games because people do things on the weekend - that's why you see any Sat games in playoffs are late Saturday and into prime time.
Sat morning was a ratings dud because they weren't getting the casual fans and the casual fans are what drives the ratings and ad rates. The diehards watch no matter what. In Covid-world the Early Saturday slot might be different

DirecTV has a contract and that contract specifies how many games they get each week. In the example above, they aren't getting the full slate early on Sunday - because you moved them. And because they are now national broadcasts, there's no need for Sunday Ticket - everybody gets them for free.

That's why Sunday Ticket only exists in Reg season, once the playoffs start - there aren't any out-of-market games - its all national broadcasts
They can certainly try to re-do these deals, but what's in it for DirecTV who spent billions for the inventory that you just took from them ?

Like I said earlier, its a fantastic idea to get more football - but the devil is in the details and it would be a battle with multi-million $$ stakes

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30 minutes ago, N4L said:

except ya know, the part about more football for the fans, and more money for the league. Except for those two things, youre right, it doesnt make sense *eyeroll*

Id be interested to hear in the marketing revenue from those saturday games the league does late in the year prior to the bowl season starting VS the regular sunday slate. It obviously is beneficial to the league or they wouldnt do it

I feel as though the owners are trying to tell the players "the world has changed and you need to participate in the potential revenue loss". The owners should have no problem telling DirecTV the same thing. 

These TV deals can be renegotiated. the owners are trying to renegotiate the goddamn salary cap afterall, they should have no issues renegotiating the TV deals 

Seriously?

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

The networks been more flexible in recent years, but they use to fight over who got which games in which slots ( early vs late, NFC vs AFC)
But they all have contracts in place and its a zero sum game - if they take a game from one and give it to another- somebody will complain

On a full non-bye slate, they have 16 games to allocate. 3 games go to Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night.
That leaves them with 13 games to split across the Sunday slate and each network gets to protect one or two from being flexed or switched

A typical Sunday would have 9 games in the early slot and 4 in the late slots. So if you take away from Sunday Early and make it a Saturday game, they might gain more eyeballs in the COVID world. But the net gain is what they would have earned Early Sunday vs the new Saturday slot. It is an incremental gain, but its not the full value of the Saturday broadcast. Does that make sense ?

They are gaining some higher ratings on Saturday, but they also lost some from Sunday because they moved that game out. In the past, the NFL has stayed away from early Sat games because people do things on the weekend - that's why you see any Sat games in playoffs are late Saturday and into prime time.
Sat morning was a ratings dud because they weren't getting the casual fans and the casual fans are what drives the ratings and ad rates. The diehards watch no matter what. In Covid-world the Early Saturday slot might be different

DirecTV has a contract and that contract specifies how many games they get each week. In the example above, they aren't getting the full slate early on Sunday - because you moved them. And because they are now national broadcasts, there's no need for Sunday Ticket - everybody gets them for free.

That's why Sunday Ticket only exists in Reg season, once the playoffs start - there aren't any out-of-market games - its all national broadcasts
They can certainly try to re-do these deals, but what's in it for DirecTV who spent billions for the inventory that you just took from them ?

Like I said earlier, its a fantastic idea to get more football - but the devil is in the details and it would be a battle with multi-million $$ stakes

Of the 9 games on Sunday morning , only 1 or 2 are "national" games. The rest are regional

Moving even 2 games to Saturday means those 2 regional games just became national games. With no competition (College games) All eyes will be on them

It's a win for everybody. TV stations have more live content to sell to advertisers. League gets a cut of that revenue, little to no competition

Direct TV would have to lose 2 games, but if the $$ make sense they'd do it

There can only be so many eyes on games that are all being played at the same time

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