Should you never punt against KC?

[ninjapirate]

Just ask yourself "what would doug pederson do?" and if he'd go for it go for it. 

[ET80]

11 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I don't know why everyone always assumes the Texans have a good defense.  They don't.  They haven't for some time

Yup.

[Forge]

I won't lie and say that I wouldn't be more willing to gamble, I think i would, tbh. But it's still situational

[Malfatron]

nah, KC aint that great.

They scored all their points in garbage time so far

[KingOfNewYork]

You should be more aggressive against them simply because the more you concede the greater your chances are at losing. And while most can say “this applies to any game” well the Chiefs tough to stop and you want to empty the clip against a team that is very efficient. 

Shorter fields also help your defense so you can try pinning them inside their 10 but if they march down the field now your defense is gassed, their defense is rested and so on. 

So be aggressive, be smart and as I said empty the clip. 

[Hunter2_1]

Never punt, you're right. That's the key.

 

Or rather...never face a 4th down. Always convert the first 3 downs and score. 

[ET80]

19 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Zach Cunningham, Justin Reid, Bradley Roby, and Whitney Mercilus are all quality players. But I get what you’re saying.

Mercilius is quickly starting to find himself on the outside of the "quality player" list...

[Tetsujin]

I think you always go for it 4th & 1 vs KC.

[Mr Bad Example]

20 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Yes you should punt. The best offenses in NFL history have “only” scored on roughly 54-57% of their offensive possessions. Which means if you punt Vs giving them an incredibly short field, you’re drastically increasing your chances of them falling within that 43-46% range than the opposite.

But all those offenses followed the old mode of "punt on 4th down." Analytics indicate that teams actually should NEVER concede a possession, which is too extreme even for me, but any reasonable punting situation - opposing side of the field on <5, own side of the field, probably more conservative - over the 40, <4, it's a reasonable move; if you can't consistently gain 3 yds (remember, we're talking about doing this ALL THE TIME not in rare circumstances) you don't deserve to be winning a game anyway. 

 

So the idea of it looks different if we think of every punt as "conceding" the possession. How much does a team increase their probability of winning when they aren't conceding around 40% of their possessions (average team turns the ball over 20 times, so I rounded to 60% of possessions having "true" outcomes because a team wouldn't have the punt option in that situation)? Most teams convert 50% of their 4th down plays so suddenly you have 20% more chances to put points on the board (glossing over the more-complicated math of drives that would have multiple 4th down decisions). 

[kramxel]

Basing this out of a game when the Chiefs looked like world beaters, and the Texans looked like trash is asnine.

KC is good, and has an amazingly creative offense, but they aren't unstoppable.

The Texans were very conservative offensively, and defensively were mauled by a 2nd string RB. This isn't exactly a good game to draw any conclusions, beyond the fact that this is only week 1.

 

[Chiefer]

13 minutes ago, kramxel said:

Basing this out of a game when the Chiefs looked like world beaters, and the Texans looked like trash is asnine.

KC is good, and has an amazingly creative offense, but they aren't unstoppable.

The Texans were very conservative offensively, and defensively were mauled by a 2nd string RB. This isn't exactly a good game to draw any conclusions, beyond the fact that this is only week 1.

 

I’d actually say the Chiefs were the conservative ones

[KManX89]

12 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

When you convert, you look like Genius

Jason Garrett basically tried the same thing last year against the Patriots, kicking a FG instead of going for it on 4th down when a TD would've tied the game regardless, essentially going for the win.

It failed, but man would it have boosted his "credentials", what little he had to begin with as a coach.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

17 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Until you don't convert the 4th down, give the other team great field position and are looking even more stupid. I say this as a Fan of a HC who might go for it more on 4th down then any other in the NFL. 

When you convert, you look like Genius

When you dont, you probably are giving away points (3) or more because of said field position. 

Now are there statistical situations, downs and distance type plays where, HC with balls go for it but not every punt is a bad thing.

If you have no plays in today's NFL that basically guarantee you 1-3 yards, you shouldn't be an NFL coach. The game is evolving and if you can't keep up, you're gonna get left behind. Guys like BoB don't adjust. John Harbaugh, for all the crap I've given him, completely adjusted his coaching style and it's paying dividends for our franchise.

[Calamity_Cometh]

Ironically, the team most equipped to never punt is the team that you are questioning about never punting against.

No, you punt. At least make him work for it. The more plays he has to run, the more chances at stops.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Calamity_Cometh