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Hunter2_1

By Hunter2_1
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wackywabbit

wackywabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

KC was only the 2nd team to win a super bowl with a QB on a rookie contract with the rookie wage scale, put in place for the 2011 draft class. Seattle in 13 was the other one.

People still manage to come up with stats to say you HAVE to have one to win a SB though...

Tom Brady himself has won more superbowls since that CBA than those cheap rookie contracts. But I'm told we have to throw out those datapoints because Tom took less for the team. Which means we are throwing away more datapoints than show this supposed "trend".

Edited by wackywabbit
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DannyB

DannyB

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

KC was only the 2nd team to win a super bowl with a QB on a rookie contract with the rookie wage scale, put in place for the 2011 draft class. Seattle in 13 was the other one.

People still manage to come up with stats to say you HAVE to have one to win a SB though...

Tom Brady himself has won more superbowls since that CBA than those cheap rookie contracts. But I'm told we have to throw out those datapoints because Tom took less for the team. Which means we are throwing away more datapoints than show this supposed "trend".

So 7 out of the last 9 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have either been playing on a cheap rookie contract, or have been Tom Brady, playing on a WELL below market deal.

The reality is, no quarterback being paid towards the top of the market has won a Super Bowl in that time. The closest thing was Eli Manning, and since then QB salaries have risen at a faster rate than what is commensurate to the salary cap. You could pay a a quarterback double was Eli's salary was, and he may not even be a top 10 guy; in fact, the Vikings did just that.

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wackywabbit

wackywabbit

Posted
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39 minutes ago, DannyB said:

So 7 out of the last 9 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have either been playing on a cheap rookie contract, or have been Tom Brady, playing on a WELL below market deal.

The reality is, no quarterback being paid towards the top of the market has won a Super Bowl in that time. The closest thing was Eli Manning, and since then QB salaries have risen at a faster rate than what is commensurate to the salary cap. You could pay a a quarterback double was Eli's salary was, and he may not even be a top 10 guy; in fact, the Vikings did just that.

not 7. 2. Don't give me that Tom Brady is basically a rookie contract BS. 2.

2

TWO

The first one to do it on a rookie wage scale contract is already 31 and on his 3rd contract, so it's been a while.

Edited by wackywabbit
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DannyB

DannyB

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

not 7. 2. Don't give me that Tom Brady is basically a rookie contract BS. 2.

2

TWO

The first one to do it on a rookie wage scale contract is already 31 and on his 3rd contract, so it's been a while.

7. 7 is the number of times it's happened with either a rookie contract or Tom Brady. In no way am I saying that Tom Brady's contract is the equivalent of a rookie deal, but he was an elite quarterback being paid sub-elite money.

EDIT (to further clarify): I think a lot of people say "you need a QB on a rookie deal", because it's short-hand for saying they haven't broken the bank yet. It's not LITERALLY the rookie deal, it's the fact that they're cost controlled and they are far outperforming their contract. If, for whatever zany reason (and I'm sure the NFLPA would pitch a fit), the Chiefs convince Mahomes to sign for $15 million per year for the next 10 years, that would still suit my point: They'd be getting elite QB pay for bottom-barrel starter money.

The point being, if you are getting ELITE quarterback play (Wilson, Brady, Mahomes), but not locked into that crippling QB money (at this point, over 15% of the salary cap), it helps immensely.

Furthermore, it's instructive that NO SB winning QB in that time has been on one of these mega-deals.

Still plenty of time for the data to sort itself out; it's been less than a decade. But so far it doesn't look good for these huge QB contracts. And as I've stated in other, previous threads, the Patriots over the past 20 years have made trying to get a read on how to best build a winning football team absolutely futile. Now that that's (presumably) in the past, we can start getting a clearer picture of how to do that, aside from having the best coach of all-time, the best qb of all-time willingly taking below-market money, and an owner who at least checks his ego enough to not constantly get in the way.

Edited by DannyB
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SalvadorsDeli

SalvadorsDeli

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

KC was only the 2nd team to win a super bowl with a QB on a rookie contract with the rookie wage scale, put in place for the 2011 draft class. Seattle in 13 was the other one.

People still manage to come up with stats to say you HAVE to have one to win a SB though...

Tom Brady himself has won more superbowls since that CBA than those cheap rookie contracts. But I'm told we have to throw out those datapoints because Tom took less for the team. Which means we are throwing away more datapoints than show this supposed "trend".

I know they technically won it with Foles but I think the Eagles with Wentz on his rookie contract counts as a Super Bowl winner with a QB on a rookie contract if we're talking more broadly about the impact from a team-building perspective. 

The presence of a GOAT QB/coach combo sort of distorts the viability of any team-building strategy that doesn't include that aformentioned GOAT combo, since they won so much, but there's still good reason to look at the rookie contract QB's and see a model for success, and in fact on the whole it looks like it's been the only real equalizer for allowing teams to compete with all-time great QB's. 

Since 2013, the only Super Bowl that didn't include a team with a QB on a rookie contract was the 2016 Falcons/Pats matchup:

2013: Russ (rookie contract) vs. Peyton (all time great)

2014: Russ (rookie contract) vs. Brady (GOAT)

2015: Cam (rookie contract) vs. Peyton (all time great, though not by then) 

2016: Brady vs. Ryan - two vet contracts

2017: Brady (GOAT) vs. Foles/Wentz (low cap hit overall)

2018: Brady (GOAT) vs. Goff (rookie contract)

2019: Mahomes (rookie contract) vs. Jimmy G

Edited by BaltimoreTerp
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minutemancl

minutemancl

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Gmen said:

Wouldn’t be a bad idea to get a deep threat in round two 

Sheesh. I had no idea it was so bad. The eye test tells you that Jones throws a super accurate and pretty deep ball, and a lot of those passes fell incomplete last year for one reason or another, but it's nice to have numbers to back that up.

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SkippyX

SkippyX

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@wackywabbit You are completely right about this.

The 2017 Eagles spent a huge haul in draft capital to draft Wentz.

  • They were already paying Chase Daniel 7 million a year as a backup.
  • They ate the dead money on Daniel to upgrade big time to Foles as a backup for another 2 years at 11 million deal
    • The deal was much more complicated then that, but he was not paid like a rookie.
    • Daniel was also complicated due to offset language
  • They were also on the hook for about 6.7 per year on the Wentz contract.
  • They paid about 12.6 -14.5 million at QB against a 167 million cap

 

The 2013 Seahawks don't really work because the 2012 Seahawks gave a QB huge money.

  • Matt Flynn 3 years 26 million signed in 2012
  • He wound up as 4 million or 6 million in dead cap in 2013
  • Tavaris Jackson also signed for 840k as a vet backup so they spent about 7.5 million at QB vs just Wilson's 680k cap hit.
  • This is with a 123 million dollar salary cap

 

The Chiefs spent 9.1 million on QBs in 2019 between Mahomes, Henne, and Moore.

This is with the 188.2 million dollar cap. This would be about the closest to a cheap QB room

 

These are all better than having to spend 30+ on a QB but none of those teams got off cheap at the position.

 

 

Also, Brady's rookie deal only lasted until 2001 and then they reworked it to pay him.

  • Five of his six Super Bowls or 8 of 9 appearances were not on the rookie deal.
  • AND the one rookie deal had Bledsoe as about the highest paid QB in football.
    • Duh! Who thinks about only Brady and not Bledsoe on that 2001 team?
  • Some people are too lazy to even do a basic google search before blathering ignorantly.
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DannyB

DannyB

Posted
Posted
On 4/6/2020 at 3:08 PM, SkippyX said:

 

  • Some people are too lazy to even do a basic google search before blathering ignorantly.

None of what you said contradicts my main point. But thanks for the insult.

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DannyB

DannyB

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Posted
36 minutes ago, BareYourTeeth said:

How come the AFC team in the Super Bowl wore the white jerseys for five straight years, from 2014-2018? 

I thought they were supposed to alternate

I think the conferences alternate which team is considered the home team, and the home team decides which jerseys to wear. So the home team could always decide on white jerseys.

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