Week 3 GDT: Raiders (2-0) @ Patriots (1-1)

[MrOaktown_56]

Not expecting to win this one, but will be pleasantly surprised if we do.

[ronjon1990]

3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Do short TD's count for less points now? We're literally in the bottom half of the league in every run defense statistical category. If we stay on the same pace, based on last season we would've ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed, 29th in yards per carry, and 32nd in rushing TD's allowed. Giving up 120 yards and 2 TD per game on 5 yards per carry is not even remotely close to good. In comparison we gave up 98 yards and 0.9 TD per game on 3.9 yards per carry last season. 

1. Please try and stay on topic. That's an entirely different discussion. Pick one, are we discussing our Run O or Run D? I'm not going to keep jumping between topics because you can't follow a single thought. 

I'll attempt to answer your new(est) question, though I'm sure you'll respond with another off-topic question soon after:

No, short TD runs do no count for less points, and literally nobody has said that. But a bunch of short TD runs do not indicate a good run O on their own. If they did, Jordan Howard would be considered as one of the best backs in the league right now.

Your last question was filled with several questions, including whether or not the Panthers or Saints had bottled up Jacobs- something totally irrelevant to our run D. 

The answer was yes, they did. They held our run game to similar numbers that the top run D's in the league have held opponents to. Our run game hasn't been particularly good. You assumed, wrongly, that I was one who has been singing our run game's praises. I haven't been. I think our rub game has been mostly subpar until we're iinside the opponent's 5, maaaybe 10 yard line. 

2. Last season is last season, not this season, and your point is a hypothetical. That said, last I checked, we aren't playing Christian McCaffery every week either. I never said we had the top run D, but we held the best RB in the league to runs of: 0, 0, 5, 9, 4, 4, 6(TD), 3, 2, 7, 13, 3, -1, 2, 1, 9, 0, 3(TD), and 2. By my count, that's 11 runs that fall short of 4 yards. Did we get gashed a couple times, yes, hence me initially saying " surprisingly stout" as opposed "one of the league's best". We clearly have an inconsistent run D, but they did a fairly decent job of holding McCaffrey in check. Only 6 of his logged rushing plays went for anything over 4 yards, and half of those were very close to. I would call that a relative success, sans the 3 long rushes of 7, 13, and 9- rushes that even great teams give up from time to time. 

As for the rest of the Panthers "rush" plays, Teddy gouged us for 6.5 yds on plays where he scrambled out of the pocket. That's due at least as much to our lack of a pass rush as they weren't designed run plays. Curtis Samuel logged a 5 yd end-around. Armoh ran twice for 1 yd. Much of our "average ypc allowed" is anchored by Bridgewater and Samuels' high averages, Bridgewater's not particularly reflective of our run D. 

Meanwhile, the Saints got a boost from Harris' 11ypc on a sweep. Murray averaged 4.7, Hill clicked 4-even. But we'll focus on the large bulk of the Saints run game- Kamara's run plays, as they're more reflective of our overall effort than the combined carrys of Harris/Murray/Hill: 10, 0, 13, 21, 3, 1(TD), 5, 16, 2, [The Saints at this point scored the bulk of their points and it was beginning to look like a route. The run D admittedly looked like trash and things looked bad], 5, 0, 5, 3, 8, 3(TD). Our defensive adjustments stopped the long gashes. Early on, we gave up 4 runs of over 5 yards, and all of them were of the double digit variety. Only 3 were ineffective run plays (0, 3, 2 yds) and the short TD. Post-adjustments, we allowed Kamara 1 run of over 5 yards. The early gashes skew the overall numbers. Gash plays happen. We adjusted and limited them to fairly average numbers once we made adjustments. If I had claimed we had a "great" run D, then yes, this would undermine it. Instead, I said "surprisingly stout". The end result was 8 rushes of 5 or more yards, 5 "good" run stops of under 5, and the 2 short TDs. The adjustments helped us stop the bleeding. If we keep that stuff cleaned up, we should be just fine. 

Between McCaffrey and Kamara, our run plays given up have been: 0, 0, 5, 9, 4, 4, 6(TD), 3, 2, 7, 13, 3, -1, 2, 1, 9, 0, 3(TD), 2, 10, 0, 13, 21, 3, 1(TD), 5, 16, 2, 5, 0, 5, 3, 8, 3(TD). 15 of those run plays were for negative yards or negligible damage. 6 of them were between 4 and 5 yards. 1 was a longer than average run td (6yd), 3 were short and goal runs (3, 1, 3 yds). 9 were longer than average runs that weren't TDs. 

Do we have a propensity to give up some gash plays? Absolutely. Kamara showed us that. Nearly have of the long runs we gave up came from him in quick succession. 

That being said, we also have a fair share of short and negative runs forced.

3. Stout, not excellent. You can't compare 2 games from this year to an entire season. That's totally irrational. A team could give up 1 blown run play of 90 yds, hold an opponent in check the rest of the game, and the stats would be ridiculously skewed if you tried to extrapolate 1 or 2 games for an entire season. It doesn't work like that. It's as irrational as a QB having a 5 TD game and saying they're on pace to throw 80 tds. You have to take individual games for whay they are and, ideally, look at the actual plays, not just raw averages. If a RB breaks a 90 yard run but winds up with a 10 carry, 100 yd game, that's a 10ypc average anchored almost entirely by 1 play. If  a RB has 2 runs of 30 yds, but ends up with 27 carries for 100 yds, they aren't a 4ypc back for the entire game. They would be "mostly" held in check. Individual plays matter as much as averages, particularly when dealing with a limited sample size.

At season's end, I don't think we wind up much worse (or better) than stats you gave for last year. Right now, the averages aren't spectacular, but on a touch-by-touch basis, I've seen enough runs stopped short and adjustments made to stop long gashes to say I think our Run D has been the strength of our D and has played fairly well outside of a handful of chunk plays. And yes, context absolutely matters. 

[Hunter2_1]

With or without Ruggs and Brown, Jacobs is going off this week. I think 150 all-purpose yards. 

It's more likely that we stop Waller than it is Jacobs. Just look at what Ingram and Chubb done to us last year. We couldn't stop it no matter who/what we threw at it. The OL bossed us, we resourced the situation and still couldn't change it (admittedly the Lamar run threat made this harder) and we had a much bigger front 7 last year too....

Jacobs will get tons of yards. 

[agarcia34]

Prepared for the worst hoping for the best. If the Raiders can keep it close in the first qtr. we can have a ball game on our hands. Just can’t be 14-0 going into the second qtr with the defense on the field most of the time. 
 

This should be a game that Gruden loves. His big boys up front going against a smaller defense that wants to play with extra DBs as their base defense. Jacobs 30 carries this game or they don’t have a shot at winning this game. This is not the same Pats defense as last year. They can be got, but you need to go at them smart and that’s by running on them and that will set up the play action to Waller and company. 
 

If the Raiders get gashed by the Pats on the ground by their RBs. I will really start to worry about this defense. 

Edited September 27, 2020 by agarcia34

[agarcia34]

Good at RT again which I’m heavily in favor for. 
 

also first time Ross has been on the game day roster which is a nice change cause they needed to change it up with Vickers

Edited September 27, 2020 by agarcia34

[Dessie]

 

4 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Good at RT again which I’m heavily in favor for. 
 

also first time Ross has been on the game day roster which is a nice change cause they needed to change it up with Vickers

No Robertson again. Kids inability to play ST is counting against him? 

[RaidersAreOne]

Trent can kick rocks.

[agarcia34]

With Robertson I think it’s more with who are you going to make inactive for you to have him active on game day. Week 1 made sense with Lawson out. Johnson and Lawson should both be active ahead of him. 

[agarcia34]

PG needs to put the DTs in a position to take advantage of the Pats back up center. Need big games from Hurst and Collins. 

[BayRaider]

We fell to 7 point underdogs. Must be a lot of action on the Patriots. 

[Humble_Beast]

Time for Nelly and Zay to step up. Vets who have a chance to earn more targets. Zay been putting in work with DC all year, chance to step up 

[BayRaider]

We get Romo as commentator, yes!

[agarcia34]

Raiders will kick to start

[BayRaider]

My official prediction from Page 2 is 26-21 Patriots but damn I’m hoping for a win today. If we can beat Bellichick in New England we are for real in every way. 

[agarcia34]

Nice 3 and out. Big play by mullen to get his hand on the ball